Japan's Weekly Light Novel Rankings for Jan 23 - 29
Rank / This week's sales by copies / Cumulative sales / Titles
*1. 21,552 *,*21,552 Madan no Ou to Vanadis Vol.16
*2. 15,466 *,*15,466 Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e Vol.5
*3. 14,234 *,*96,557 Monogatari Series: Off Season Vol.4 "Musubimonogatari"
*4. 11,379 1,388,882 Kimi no Na wa. (Kadokawa Bunko)
*5. *9,310 *,*78,608 Youjo Senki Vol.1
*6. *8,275 *,**8,275 Kuro no Shoukanshi Vol.3
*7. *8,106 *,**8,106 Sekai no Owari no Encore Vol.9
*8. *7,513 *,**7,513 Sayounara Ryuusei, Konnichiwa Jinsei Vol.8
*9. *7,159 *,**7,159 Chiyu Mahou no Machigatta Tsukaikata: Senjou wo Kakeru Kaifuku Youin Vol.4
10. *6,740 *,**6,740 Sozai Saishuka no Isekai Ryokouki Vol.1
11. *6,464 *,*47,273 Youjo Senki Vol.2
12. *6,168 *,**6,168 Magika no Kenshi to Vasreus Vol.13
13. *6,115 *,*14,749 Oda Nobuna no Yabou Zenkokuban Vol.17
14. *6,043 *,**6,043 Tate no Yuusha no Nariagari Vol.16
15. *6,004 *,**7,270 Summoner-san ga Iku Vol.6
16. *5,794 *,*12,889 Tsujou Kougeki ga Zentai Kougeki de 2-kai Kougeki no Okaasan wa Suki desu ka?
17. *5,769 *,**5,769 Kujonin Vol.3
18. *5,555 *,315,856 Kimi no Na wa. (Kadokawa Tsubasa Bunko)
19. *4,820 *,**4,820 Teihen Kenshi wa Musume to Kurasu: Kazoku de Idomu Meikyuu Kouryaku
20. *4,768 *,*13,878 Only Sense Online Vol.11
21. *4,734 *,**4,734 Eiyuu Kyoushitsu Vol.7
22. *4,711 *,**4,711 Kawaiikereba Hentai demo Suki ni Natte Kuremasu ka?
23. *4,682 *,**4,682 Ore no Ie ga Maryoku Spot Datta Ken: Sundeiru dake de Sekai Saikyou Vol.4
24. *4,561 *,**4,561 Seiju no Kuni no Kinju Tsukai Vol.8
*1. 21,552 *,*21,552 Madan no Ou to Vanadis Vol.16
*3. 15,466 *,*15,466 Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e Vol.5
*7. 11,379 1,388,882 Kimi no Na wa. (Kadokawa Bunko)
16. *8,275 *,**8,275 Kuro no Shoukanshi Vol.3
17. *8,106 *,**8,106 Sekai no Owari no Encore Vol.9
24. *6,168 *,**6,168 Magika no Kenshi to Vasreus Vol.13
26. *6,115 *,*14,749 Oda Nobuna no Yabou Zenkokuban Vol.17
28. *5,794 *,*12,889 Tsujou Kougeki ga Zentai Kougeki de 2-kai Kougeki no Okaasan wa Suki desu ka?
36. *4,820 *,**4,820 Teihen Kenshi wa Musume to Kurasu: Kazoku de Idomu Meikyuu Kouryaku
37. *4,768 *,*13,878 Only Sense Online Vol.11
38. *4,734 *,**4,734 Eiyuu Kyoushitsu Vol.7
39. *4,711 *,**4,711 Kawaiikereba Hentai demo Suki ni Natte Kuremasu ka?
41. *4,682 *,**4,682 Ore no Ie ga Maryoku Spot Datta Ken: Sundeiru dake de Sekai Saikyou Vol.4
43. *4,561 *,**4,561 Seiju no Kuni no Kinju Tsukai Vol.8
(cut-off 4,240)
Book
*9. 14,234 *,*96,557 Monogatari Series: Off Season Vol.4 "Musubimonogatari"
18. *9,310 *,*78,608 Youjo Senki Vol.1
33. *7,159 *,**7,159 Chiyu Mahou no Machigatta Tsukaikata: Senjou wo Kakeru Kaifuku Youin Vol.4
39. *6,464 *,*47,273 Youjo Senki Vol.2
43. *6,043 *,**6,043 Tate no Yuusha no Nariagari Vol.16
47. *6,004 *,**7,270 Summoner-san ga Iku Vol.6
(cut-off 5,843)
Literature Books Genre (duplicates removed)
17. *5,769 *,**5,769 Kujonin Vol.3
19. *4,606 *,*33,618 Youjo Senki Vol.3
(cut-off 4,493)
Source: Oricon Youtaijou
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20 of 38 Comments Recent Comments
Feb 6, 2017 7:48 AM by ichii_1
True Enough, the winter season seems to always be the weakest but there are quite a few good titles this year, im watching 6 and that is a record for me as by far as winter titles go.
I wasn't referring to that so much as that there are only 2 light novel adaptations this season, one of which is a sequel.
Feb 5, 2017 2:26 AM by kuuderes_shadow
It seems Youjo Senkai is the one getting the biggest winter boost in the Ln department.
Not that there's much by way of competition...
True Enough, the winter season seems to always be the weakest but there are quite a few good titles this year, im watching 6 and that is a record for me as by far as winter titles go.
Feb 4, 2017 12:56 PM by Gattmartna
It seems Youjo Senkai is the one getting the biggest winter boost in the Ln department.
Not that there's much by way of competition...
Feb 4, 2017 11:09 AM by kuuderes_shadow
Series rankings from Oricon website:
*1. Youjo Senki
*2. Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo!
*3. Madan no Ou to Vanadis
*4. Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e
*5. Shousetsu Kimi no Na wa.
*6. Monogatari Series
*7. Re:Zero kara Hajimeru Isekai Seikatsu
*8. Sword Art Online
*9. Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! Spinoff
10. Kuro no Shoukanshi
11. Sekai no Owari no Encore
12. Sayounara Ryuusei, Konnichiwa Jinsei
13. Chiyu Mahou no Machigatta Tsukaikata
14. Overlord
15. Sozai Saishuka no Isekai Ryokouki
16. Magika no Kishi to Basileus
17. Eiyuu Kyoushitsu
18. Oda Nobuna no Yabou Zenkokuban
19. Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei
20. Tate no Yuusha no Nariagari
(source: Oricon website)
It seems Youjo Senkai is the one getting the biggest winter boost in the Ln department.
Haha good to see Overlord still in the top 20, Oh summer can't come sooner for the next volume ;_;
Re:Zero s till hanging in there :D
Oda Nobuna..oh so much material and no new anime ;_;
Really why has not Vanadis Ln not been released in the west ?_?
Feb 4, 2017 7:36 AM by Gattmartna
Feb 3, 2017 1:19 PM by alterafterglow
I got it from an old posting here actually:
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1297845&show=90#msg35600665
Hopefully the link provided there is useful, otherwise this may be made up. It's from 2014 at any rate so may not be current any longer.
Oh right yes I read that before but forgot about it. The data used, such as it is, is legitimate (the source link is now dead but I remember checking it when it was posted). There are quite a few caveats, though:
- It's talking about manga, which are different to light novels.
- By using copies in circulation it, like Oricon, excludes ebook sales entirely.
- The original data it uses are taken from whenever the publisher chose to release the figure, and are figures for number of copies of that volume printed at the time. When publishers talk about copies of an individual volume printed (rather than the total for the whole series) they are usually talking about the size of the first print run. Obviously sales can and do continue above and beyond that point.
- It works on the assumption that every copy printed is sold. This is of course false.
- There are assumptions made about volumes that didn't rank which are baseless. These have reported sales of zero, so for the purpose of this exercise would not meet any threshold of reported sales. Of things that actually get on the rankings the mean is 68% and the standard deviation 17%.
Ebook sales would help the author of course, as might other merchandise and an anime adaptation where they'd get a manuscript fee and some small royalties for the disc and other merchandise sales (but it isn't much which I know from asking some actual, mmm mangaka in this case, who had their work adapted).
Does make it look a bit bleak for the other 90% who make half that or less. Many of them really do work in bookstores or restaurants to make ends meet.
Feb 2, 2017 1:38 PM by hpulley
@hpulley - it's about $52kUSD at current mid-market rate but otherwise the maths is fine.
Where did you get that deviation from though?
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1297845&show=90#msg35600665
Hopefully the link provided there is useful, otherwise this may be made up. It's from 2014 at any rate so may not be current any longer.
Oh right yes I read that before but forgot about it. The data used, such as it is, is legitimate (the source link is now dead but I remember checking it when it was posted). There are quite a few caveats, though:
- It's talking about manga, which are different to light novels.
- By using copies in circulation it, like Oricon, excludes ebook sales entirely.
- The original data it uses are taken from whenever the publisher chose to release the figure, and are figures for number of copies of that volume printed at the time. When publishers talk about copies of an individual volume printed (rather than the total for the whole series) they are usually talking about the size of the first print run. Obviously sales can and do continue above and beyond that point.
- It works on the assumption that every copy printed is sold. This is of course false.
- There are assumptions made about volumes that didn't rank which are baseless. These have reported sales of zero, so for the purpose of this exercise would not meet any threshold of reported sales. Of things that actually get on the rankings the mean is 68% and the standard deviation 17%.
Feb 2, 2017 1:09 PM by kuuderes_shadow
@hpulley - it's about $52kUSD at current mid-market rate but otherwise the maths is fine.
Where did you get that deviation from though?
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1297845&show=90#msg35600665
Hopefully the link provided there is useful, otherwise this may be made up. It's from 2014 at any rate so may not be current any longer.
Feb 2, 2017 12:48 PM by hpulley
Where did you get that deviation from though?
Feb 2, 2017 12:27 PM by kuuderes_shadow
You misunderstood. 90% of the 2800 LN volumes didn't sell over 10k, only 270 sold over 10k. Selling over 10k is already being i nthe top 10%, selling over 20k is top 5%.
Oops my bad.So I can assume that when a volume of a novel touches 20k in its first week,author begins to smile.
If we assume the 20K total figure instead... on average Oricon reports only 61% of LN sales with a wide 1st deviation of 23% but if we assume that average then an author who gets 20K on Oricon really gets over 32.5K sales. If we assume about 10% royalties on a 600 yen novel and they release 3 volumes a year then they will make the equivalent of about $58.5K USD from those 3 releases. Would that make them smile? I hope so. Perhaps my math is completely off. Someone, please check my work.
Feb 2, 2017 11:21 AM by hpulley
So we can safely assume that those 270 which didn't sell over 10k were pretty much "ignored" in a sense.I mean every author literally wants his/her novel's volume to atleast sell around 20k which I have read on various forums to be a "decent" figure on an average.Anyways thanks for giving some insight.
You misunderstood. 90% of the 2800 LN volumes didn't sell over 10k, only 270 sold over 10k. Selling over 10k is already being i nthe top 10%, selling over 20k is top 5%.
Oops my bad.So I can assume that when a volume of a novel touches 20k in its first week,author begins to smile.
Feb 2, 2017 10:58 AM by PapaShango
Putting a threshold figure on something like that is meaningless.
That said, in 2016 there were c. 2.8k light novel volumes released. Of these, 271 had sales over 10k reported by Oricon's weekly rankings by the end of the year, 138 over 20k, 89 over 30k, 50 over 50k and 18 over 100k. Make of that what you will.
So we can safely assume that those 270 which didn't sell over 10k were pretty much "ignored" in a sense.I mean every author literally wants his/her novel's volume to atleast sell around 20k which I have read on various forums to be a "decent" figure on an average.Anyways thanks for giving some insight.
You misunderstood. 90% of the 2800 LN volumes didn't sell over 10k, only 270 sold over 10k. Selling over 10k is already being i nthe top 10%, selling over 20k is top 5%.
Feb 2, 2017 10:50 AM by Zefyris
Volume 1 is already up to #4 on Stalker where the prediction for all 4 versions (BD and DVD, Amazon and non-Amazon) has risen to 18K! We'll see how overestimated that is in 7 weeks.
Well Stalker's estimates are 99.9% of time not accurate and so I usually don't trust them.But estimating 18k opening for a second season of the show whose first season's average was around 10k is a very big estimate.Of course it may happen but this much jump looks a very difficult task for such kind of anime.
The 18K is just temporary from the game PV jump. This is a prediction which assumes that it sells at this rate for the next 7 weeks, which it won't. There are only 5K actual 'buys' on it, the other 13K are a prediction but the prediction was around 9K before this craziness with the game. That sounded more reasonable to me and might even end up as 10-11K if the game boost is anything substantial. We'll see...
Feb 2, 2017 10:34 AM by hpulley
I am expecting around atleast 7k figure for the first volume(BD+DVD) for S2,though animation is not as good as S1.
Well Stalker's estimates are 99.9% of time not accurate and so I usually don't trust them.But estimating 18k opening for a second season of the show whose first season's average was around 10k is a very big estimate.Of course it may happen but this much jump looks like a very difficult task for such kind of anime and given the situation of the anime industry from 2015 onwards.Anyway lets hope it sells very good so that we may get a third season soon.
Feb 2, 2017 10:31 AM by PapaShango
There are no definite numbers, it is simply the case that at THIS MOMENT it is the 5th highest ranked Bluray for orders on Amazon. Now, that said it was already ranking fairly well but a bonus like this could well add a few thousand copies to the sales. Of course, being just a v1 bonus it won't affect the average as much though there are only 5 volumes so it won't go down as much as usual. If they included a game per volume it would probably stay fairly high.
Normally S2 is lower but not always. There are several examples of light novel adaptations holding their sales in the second season as long as the quality is high. In rare cases S2 is higher.
I don't remember if the publisher or distributor are #1 on the production committee. It seems like they decided on S2 rather quickly which tells me it was the publisher who gave the green light but the committee makeup might be different this time around.
I am expecting around atleast 7k figure for the first volume(BD+DVD) for S2,though animation is not as good as S1.
Feb 2, 2017 10:23 AM by hpulley
is that news? I remember seeing them playing that and Takashi Rie being really bad at it lol. //edit Oh I guess footage of the game itself is indeed quite new, would not have expected that to influence sales though lol//
But nice if it's a bit up. Are there definite numbers to that #5 ranking or only that they're #5 ? Yes I know those estimates are super volatile but just wondering about what range we're talking here. I just kind of assumed that it's going to be less than s1 because that's what usually happens, right?
Normally S2 is lower but not always. There are several examples of light novel adaptations holding their sales in the second season as long as the quality is high. In rare cases S2 is higher.
I don't remember if the publisher or distributor are #1 on the production committee. It seems like they decided on S2 rather quickly which tells me it was the publisher who gave the green light but the committee makeup might be different this time around.
I am expecting around atleast 7k figure for the first volume(BD+DVD) for S2,though animation is not as good as S1.
Feb 2, 2017 10:09 AM by PapaShango
What is the threshold sales mark for a light novel to say that people "noticed" it.What are good sales for a light novel?like 10k or 10k>
Putting a threshold figure on something like that is meaningless.
That said, in 2016 there were c. 2.8k light novel volumes released. Of these, 271 had sales over 10k reported by Oricon's weekly rankings by the end of the year, 138 over 20k, 89 over 30k, 50 over 50k and 18 over 100k. Make of that what you will.
So we can safely assume that those 270 which didn't sell over 10k were pretty much "ignored" in a sense.I mean every author literally wants his/her novel's volume to atleast sell around 20k which I have read on various forums to be a "decent" figure on an average.Anyways thanks for giving some insight.
Feb 2, 2017 9:57 AM by PapaShango
Happy to see this!
Feb 2, 2017 9:36 AM by MrEpicMichael
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