Japan's Weekly Light Novel Rankings for Jan 23 - 29

14.　*6,043　*,**6,043　Tate no Yuusha no Nariagari Vol.16

Where's the anime ?
Madhouse or White Fox please.

Feb 8, 2017 3:11 PM by Topolowgic

The bleach novel seems to be getting a 3rd reprint already, it should definitely reach about 100K by year's end.

Feb 6, 2017 7:48 AM by ichii_1

Gattmartna said:

kuuderes_shadow said:

Not that there's much by way of competition...

True Enough, the winter season seems to always be the weakest but there are quite a few good titles this year, im watching 6 and that is a record for me as by far as winter titles go.

I wasn't referring to that so much as that there are only 2 light novel adaptations this season, one of which is a sequel.

Feb 5, 2017 2:26 AM by kuuderes_shadow

kuuderes_shadow said:

Gattmartna said:

It seems Youjo Senkai is the one getting the biggest winter boost in the Ln department.

Not that there's much by way of competition...

True Enough, the winter season seems to always be the weakest but there are quite a few good titles this year, im watching 6 and that is a record for me as by far as winter titles go.

Feb 4, 2017 12:56 PM by Gattmartna

Gattmartna said:

It seems Youjo Senkai is the one getting the biggest winter boost in the Ln department.

Not that there's much by way of competition...

Feb 4, 2017 11:09 AM by kuuderes_shadow

kuuderes_shadow said:
Series rankings from Oricon website:
*1. Youjo Senki
*2. Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo!
*3. Madan no Ou to Vanadis
*4. Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e
*5. Shousetsu Kimi no Na wa.
*6. Monogatari Series
*7. Re:Zero kara Hajimeru Isekai Seikatsu
*8. Sword Art Online
*9. Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! Spinoff
10. Kuro no Shoukanshi
11. Sekai no Owari no Encore
12. Sayounara Ryuusei, Konnichiwa Jinsei
13. Chiyu Mahou no Machigatta Tsukaikata
14. Overlord
15. Sozai Saishuka no Isekai Ryokouki
16. Magika no Kishi to Basileus
17. Eiyuu Kyoushitsu
18. Oda Nobuna no Yabou Zenkokuban
19. Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei
20. Tate no Yuusha no Nariagari

(source: Oricon website)

It seems Youjo Senkai is the one getting the biggest winter boost in the Ln department.

Haha good to see Overlord still in the top 20, Oh summer can't come sooner for the next volume ;_;

Re:Zero s till hanging in there :D

Oda Nobuna..oh so much material and no new anime ;_;

Really why has not Vanadis Ln not been released in the west ?_?

Feb 4, 2017 7:36 AM by Gattmartna

The #1 spot surprised me; should get around to reading the Vanadis novels

Feb 3, 2017 1:19 PM by alterafterglow

kuuderes_shadow said:

hpulley said:

I got it from an old posting here actually:
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1297845&show=90#msg35600665
Hopefully the link provided there is useful, otherwise this may be made up. It's from 2014 at any rate so may not be current any longer.

Oh right yes I read that before but forgot about it. The data used, such as it is, is legitimate (the source link is now dead but I remember checking it when it was posted). There are quite a few caveats, though:
- It's talking about manga, which are different to light novels.
- By using copies in circulation it, like Oricon, excludes ebook sales entirely.
- The original data it uses are taken from whenever the publisher chose to release the figure, and are figures for number of copies of that volume printed at the time. When publishers talk about copies of an individual volume printed (rather than the total for the whole series) they are usually talking about the size of the first print run. Obviously sales can and do continue above and beyond that point.
- It works on the assumption that every copy printed is sold. This is of course false.
- There are assumptions made about volumes that didn't rank which are baseless. These have reported sales of zero, so for the purpose of this exercise would not meet any threshold of reported sales. Of things that actually get on the rankings the mean is 68% and the standard deviation 17%.

Glad you remembered!

Ebook sales would help the author of course, as might other merchandise and an anime adaptation where they'd get a manuscript fee and some small royalties for the disc and other merchandise sales (but it isn't much which I know from asking some actual, mmm mangaka in this case, who had their work adapted).

Does make it look a bit bleak for the other 90% who make half that or less. Many of them really do work in bookstores or restaurants to make ends meet.

Feb 2, 2017 1:38 PM by hpulley

hpulley said:

kuuderes_shadow said:
@hpulley - it's about $52kUSD at current mid-market rate but otherwise the maths is fine.

Where did you get that deviation from though?

I got it from an old posting here actually:
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1297845&show=90#msg35600665
Hopefully the link provided there is useful, otherwise this may be made up. It's from 2014 at any rate so may not be current any longer.

Oh right yes I read that before but forgot about it. The data used, such as it is, is legitimate (the source link is now dead but I remember checking it when it was posted). There are quite a few caveats, though:
- It's talking about manga, which are different to light novels.
- By using copies in circulation it, like Oricon, excludes ebook sales entirely.
- The original data it uses are taken from whenever the publisher chose to release the figure, and are figures for number of copies of that volume printed at the time. When publishers talk about copies of an individual volume printed (rather than the total for the whole series) they are usually talking about the size of the first print run. Obviously sales can and do continue above and beyond that point.
- It works on the assumption that every copy printed is sold. This is of course false.
- There are assumptions made about volumes that didn't rank which are baseless. These have reported sales of zero, so for the purpose of this exercise would not meet any threshold of reported sales. Of things that actually get on the rankings the mean is 68% and the standard deviation 17%.

Feb 2, 2017 1:09 PM by kuuderes_shadow

kuuderes_shadow said:
@hpulley - it's about $52kUSD at current mid-market rate but otherwise the maths is fine.

Where did you get that deviation from though?

I got it from an old posting here actually:
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1297845&show=90#msg35600665
Hopefully the link provided there is useful, otherwise this may be made up. It's from 2014 at any rate so may not be current any longer.

Feb 2, 2017 12:48 PM by hpulley

@hpulley - it's about $52kUSD at current mid-market rate but otherwise the maths is fine.

Where did you get that deviation from though?

Feb 2, 2017 12:27 PM by kuuderes_shadow

PapaShango said:

Zefyris said:

You misunderstood. 90% of the 2800 LN volumes didn't sell over 10k, only 270 sold over 10k. Selling over 10k is already being i nthe top 10%, selling over 20k is top 5%.

Oops my bad.So I can assume that when a volume of a novel touches 20k in its first week,author begins to smile.

20K first week would make them smile as it would then likely make much more than 20K and would thus be in the upper few percentage points of light novel sales.

If we assume the 20K total figure instead... on average Oricon reports only 61% of LN sales with a wide 1st deviation of 23% but if we assume that average then an author who gets 20K on Oricon really gets over 32.5K sales. If we assume about 10% royalties on a 600 yen novel and they release 3 volumes a year then they will make the equivalent of about $58.5K USD from those 3 releases. Would that make them smile? I hope so. Perhaps my math is completely off. Someone, please check my work.

Feb 2, 2017 11:21 AM by hpulley

Zefyris said:

PapaShango said:

So we can safely assume that those 270 which didn't sell over 10k were pretty much "ignored" in a sense.I mean every author literally wants his/her novel's volume to atleast sell around 20k which I have read on various forums to be a "decent" figure on an average.Anyways thanks for giving some insight.

You misunderstood. 90% of the 2800 LN volumes didn't sell over 10k, only 270 sold over 10k. Selling over 10k is already being i nthe top 10%, selling over 20k is top 5%.

Oops my bad.So I can assume that when a volume of a novel touches 20k in its first week,author begins to smile.

Feb 2, 2017 10:58 AM by PapaShango

PapaShango said:

kuuderes_shadow said:

Putting a threshold figure on something like that is meaningless.

That said, in 2016 there were c. 2.8k light novel volumes released. Of these, 271 had sales over 10k reported by Oricon's weekly rankings by the end of the year, 138 over 20k, 89 over 30k, 50 over 50k and 18 over 100k. Make of that what you will.

So we can safely assume that those 270 which didn't sell over 10k were pretty much "ignored" in a sense.I mean every author literally wants his/her novel's volume to atleast sell around 20k which I have read on various forums to be a "decent" figure on an average.Anyways thanks for giving some insight.

You misunderstood. 90% of the 2800 LN volumes didn't sell over 10k, only 270 sold over 10k. Selling over 10k is already being i nthe top 10%, selling over 20k is top 5%.

Feb 2, 2017 10:50 AM by Zefyris

PapaShango said:

hpulley said:

PapaShango said:

hpulley said:

Toadesstern said:

hpulley said:

Toadesstern said:

kuuderes_shadow said:
Series rankings from Oricon website:
*1. Youjo Senki
*2. Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo!
*3. Madan no Ou to Vanadis
*4. Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e
*5. Shousetsu Kimi no Na wa.
*6. Monogatari Series
*7. Re:Zero kara Hajimeru Isekai Seikatsu
*8. Sword Art Online
*9. Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! Spinoff
10. Kuro no Shoukanshi
11. Sekai no Owari no Encore
12. Sayounara Ryuusei, Konnichiwa Jinsei
13. Chiyu Mahou no Machigatta Tsukaikata
14. Overlord
15. Sozai Saishuka no Isekai Ryokouki
16. Magika no Kishi to Basileus
17. Eiyuu Kyoushitsu
18. Oda Nobuna no Yabou Zenkokuban
19. Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei
20. Tate no Yuusha no Nariagari

(source: Oricon website)

I guess konosuba is selling more while the 2nd season is airing. But expectedly nothing as big as what happened with s1. Still would have liked to see some get up there individually instead of only the decent enough sales across the board (or across the vols I guess).

Probably won't be seeing an instant s3 announcement this way unless BDs sell like crazy... and I think everyone is expecting those to dip as well when compared to s1.

Due to the bonus game most likely (symbv noticed) KonoSuba v1 is up to #5 on Stalker so the first volume at least with the bundled game appears that it will sell very well. I'm kind of surprised as it looks like a retro side scroller to me but it seems people like the PV.

is that news? I remember seeing them playing that and Takashi Rie being really bad at it lol. //edit Oh I guess footage of the game itself is indeed quite new, would not have expected that to influence sales though lol//

But nice if it's a bit up. Are there definite numbers to that #5 ranking or only that they're #5 ? Yes I know those estimates are super volatile but just wondering about what range we're talking here. I just kind of assumed that it's going to be less than s1 because that's what usually happens, right?

There are no definite numbers, it is simply the case that at THIS MOMENT it is the 5th highest ranked Bluray for orders on Amazon. Now, that said it was already ranking fairly well but a bonus like this could well add a few thousand copies to the sales. Of course, being just a v1 bonus it won't affect the average as much though there are only 5 volumes so it won't go down as much as usual. If they included a game per volume it would probably stay fairly high.

Normally S2 is lower but not always. There are several examples of light novel adaptations holding their sales in the second season as long as the quality is high. In rare cases S2 is higher.

I don't remember if the publisher or distributor are #1 on the production committee. It seems like they decided on S2 rather quickly which tells me it was the publisher who gave the green light but the committee makeup might be different this time around.

I am expecting around atleast 7k figure for the first volume(BD+DVD) for S2,though animation is not as good as S1.

Volume 1 is already up to #4 on Stalker where the prediction for all 4 versions (BD and DVD, Amazon and non-Amazon) has risen to 18K! We'll see how overestimated that is in 7 weeks.

Well Stalker's estimates are 99.9% of time not accurate and so I usually don't trust them.But estimating 18k opening for a second season of the show whose first season's average was around 10k is a very big estimate.Of course it may happen but this much jump looks a very difficult task for such kind of anime.

99% inaccurate? No, Stalker is actually pretty good, you just have to understand how it works.

The 18K is just temporary from the game PV jump. This is a prediction which assumes that it sells at this rate for the next 7 weeks, which it won't. There are only 5K actual 'buys' on it, the other 13K are a prediction but the prediction was around 9K before this craziness with the game. That sounded more reasonable to me and might even end up as 10-11K if the game boost is anything substantial. We'll see...

Feb 2, 2017 10:34 AM by hpulley

hpulley said:

PapaShango said:

hpulley said:

Toadesstern said:

hpulley said:

Toadesstern said:

kuuderes_shadow said:
Series rankings from Oricon website:
*1. Youjo Senki
*2. Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo!
*3. Madan no Ou to Vanadis
*4. Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e
*5. Shousetsu Kimi no Na wa.
*6. Monogatari Series
*7. Re:Zero kara Hajimeru Isekai Seikatsu
*8. Sword Art Online
*9. Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! Spinoff
10. Kuro no Shoukanshi
11. Sekai no Owari no Encore
12. Sayounara Ryuusei, Konnichiwa Jinsei
13. Chiyu Mahou no Machigatta Tsukaikata
14. Overlord
15. Sozai Saishuka no Isekai Ryokouki
16. Magika no Kishi to Basileus
17. Eiyuu Kyoushitsu
18. Oda Nobuna no Yabou Zenkokuban
19. Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei
20. Tate no Yuusha no Nariagari

(source: Oricon website)

I guess konosuba is selling more while the 2nd season is airing. But expectedly nothing as big as what happened with s1. Still would have liked to see some get up there individually instead of only the decent enough sales across the board (or across the vols I guess).

Probably won't be seeing an instant s3 announcement this way unless BDs sell like crazy... and I think everyone is expecting those to dip as well when compared to s1.

Due to the bonus game most likely (symbv noticed) KonoSuba v1 is up to #5 on Stalker so the first volume at least with the bundled game appears that it will sell very well. I'm kind of surprised as it looks like a retro side scroller to me but it seems people like the PV.

is that news? I remember seeing them playing that and Takashi Rie being really bad at it lol. //edit Oh I guess footage of the game itself is indeed quite new, would not have expected that to influence sales though lol//

But nice if it's a bit up. Are there definite numbers to that #5 ranking or only that they're #5 ? Yes I know those estimates are super volatile but just wondering about what range we're talking here. I just kind of assumed that it's going to be less than s1 because that's what usually happens, right?

There are no definite numbers, it is simply the case that at THIS MOMENT it is the 5th highest ranked Bluray for orders on Amazon. Now, that said it was already ranking fairly well but a bonus like this could well add a few thousand copies to the sales. Of course, being just a v1 bonus it won't affect the average as much though there are only 5 volumes so it won't go down as much as usual. If they included a game per volume it would probably stay fairly high.

Normally S2 is lower but not always. There are several examples of light novel adaptations holding their sales in the second season as long as the quality is high. In rare cases S2 is higher.

I don't remember if the publisher or distributor are #1 on the production committee. It seems like they decided on S2 rather quickly which tells me it was the publisher who gave the green light but the committee makeup might be different this time around.

I am expecting around atleast 7k figure for the first volume(BD+DVD) for S2,though animation is not as good as S1.

Volume 1 is already up to #4 on Stalker where the prediction for all 4 versions (BD and DVD, Amazon and non-Amazon) has risen to 18K! We'll see how overestimated that is in 7 weeks.

Well Stalker's estimates are 99.9% of time not accurate and so I usually don't trust them.But estimating 18k opening for a second season of the show whose first season's average was around 10k is a very big estimate.Of course it may happen but this much jump looks like a very difficult task for such kind of anime and given the situation of the anime industry from 2015 onwards.Anyway lets hope it sells very good so that we may get a third season soon.

Feb 2, 2017 10:31 AM by PapaShango

PapaShango said:

hpulley said:

Toadesstern said:

hpulley said:

Toadesstern said:

kuuderes_shadow said:
Series rankings from Oricon website:
*1. Youjo Senki
*2. Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo!
*3. Madan no Ou to Vanadis
*4. Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e
*5. Shousetsu Kimi no Na wa.
*6. Monogatari Series
*7. Re:Zero kara Hajimeru Isekai Seikatsu
*8. Sword Art Online
*9. Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! Spinoff
10. Kuro no Shoukanshi
11. Sekai no Owari no Encore
12. Sayounara Ryuusei, Konnichiwa Jinsei
13. Chiyu Mahou no Machigatta Tsukaikata
14. Overlord
15. Sozai Saishuka no Isekai Ryokouki
16. Magika no Kishi to Basileus
17. Eiyuu Kyoushitsu
18. Oda Nobuna no Yabou Zenkokuban
19. Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei
20. Tate no Yuusha no Nariagari

(source: Oricon website)

I guess konosuba is selling more while the 2nd season is airing. But expectedly nothing as big as what happened with s1. Still would have liked to see some get up there individually instead of only the decent enough sales across the board (or across the vols I guess).

Probably won't be seeing an instant s3 announcement this way unless BDs sell like crazy... and I think everyone is expecting those to dip as well when compared to s1.

Due to the bonus game most likely (symbv noticed) KonoSuba v1 is up to #5 on Stalker so the first volume at least with the bundled game appears that it will sell very well. I'm kind of surprised as it looks like a retro side scroller to me but it seems people like the PV.

is that news? I remember seeing them playing that and Takashi Rie being really bad at it lol. //edit Oh I guess footage of the game itself is indeed quite new, would not have expected that to influence sales though lol//

But nice if it's a bit up. Are there definite numbers to that #5 ranking or only that they're #5 ? Yes I know those estimates are super volatile but just wondering about what range we're talking here. I just kind of assumed that it's going to be less than s1 because that's what usually happens, right?

There are no definite numbers, it is simply the case that at THIS MOMENT it is the 5th highest ranked Bluray for orders on Amazon. Now, that said it was already ranking fairly well but a bonus like this could well add a few thousand copies to the sales. Of course, being just a v1 bonus it won't affect the average as much though there are only 5 volumes so it won't go down as much as usual. If they included a game per volume it would probably stay fairly high.

Normally S2 is lower but not always. There are several examples of light novel adaptations holding their sales in the second season as long as the quality is high. In rare cases S2 is higher.

I don't remember if the publisher or distributor are #1 on the production committee. It seems like they decided on S2 rather quickly which tells me it was the publisher who gave the green light but the committee makeup might be different this time around.

I am expecting around atleast 7k figure for the first volume(BD+DVD) for S2,though animation is not as good as S1.

Volume 1 is already up to #4 on Stalker where the prediction for all 4 versions (BD and DVD, Amazon and non-Amazon) has risen to 18K! We'll see how overestimated that is in 7 weeks.

Feb 2, 2017 10:23 AM by hpulley

hpulley said:

Toadesstern said:

is that news? I remember seeing them playing that and Takashi Rie being really bad at it lol. //edit Oh I guess footage of the game itself is indeed quite new, would not have expected that to influence sales though lol//

But nice if it's a bit up. Are there definite numbers to that #5 ranking or only that they're #5 ? Yes I know those estimates are super volatile but just wondering about what range we're talking here. I just kind of assumed that it's going to be less than s1 because that's what usually happens, right?

There are no definite numbers, it is simply the case that at THIS MOMENT it is the 5th highest ranked Bluray for orders on Amazon. Now, that said it was already ranking fairly well but a bonus like this could well add a few thousand copies to the sales. Of course, being just a v1 bonus it won't affect the average as much though there are only 5 volumes so it won't go down as much as usual. If they included a game per volume it would probably stay fairly high.

Normally S2 is lower but not always. There are several examples of light novel adaptations holding their sales in the second season as long as the quality is high. In rare cases S2 is higher.

I don't remember if the publisher or distributor are #1 on the production committee. It seems like they decided on S2 rather quickly which tells me it was the publisher who gave the green light but the committee makeup might be different this time around.

I am expecting around atleast 7k figure for the first volume(BD+DVD) for S2,though animation is not as good as S1.

Feb 2, 2017 10:09 AM by PapaShango

kuuderes_shadow said:

PapaShango said:
What is the threshold sales mark for a light novel to say that people "noticed" it.What are good sales for a light novel?like 10k or 10k>

Putting a threshold figure on something like that is meaningless.

That said, in 2016 there were c. 2.8k light novel volumes released. Of these, 271 had sales over 10k reported by Oricon's weekly rankings by the end of the year, 138 over 20k, 89 over 30k, 50 over 50k and 18 over 100k. Make of that what you will.

So we can safely assume that those 270 which didn't sell over 10k were pretty much "ignored" in a sense.I mean every author literally wants his/her novel's volume to atleast sell around 20k which I have read on various forums to be a "decent" figure on an average.Anyways thanks for giving some insight.

Feb 2, 2017 9:57 AM by PapaShango

*1.　21,552　*,*21,552　Madan no Ou to Vanadis Vol.16

Happy to see this!

Feb 2, 2017 9:36 AM by MrEpicMichael

Japan's Weekly Light Novel Rankings for Jan 23 - 29

20 of 38 Comments Recent Comments

MoreTop Anime

MoreTop Airing Anime

MoreMost Popular Characters