Japan's Weekly Blu-ray & CD Rankings for April 29 - May 05

by symbv
May 7, 2013 2:41 AM | 140 Comments

Here are the weekly Blu-ray & CD rankings for Apr 29th - May 5th

Rank / This week's sales by copies / Cumulative sales / Titles

Blu-ray
*1, 34,207 347,049 Evangelion: 3.33 You Can (Not) Redo
*2, *3,661 *32,071 Girls und Panzer vol.4
*3, *2,866 *24,715 Sword Art Online vol.7
*4, *2,659 **2,659 GJ-bu vol.3
*5, *1,929 *15,386 JoJo's Bizarre Adventure vol.4
*6, *1,883 *17,132 Love Live! School Idol Project vol.2
*7, *1,734 *33,030 Girls und Panzer vol.3
*8, *1,378 **8,831 Naruto: Shippuuden Movie 6 - Road to Ninja
*9, *1,222 *14,638 Macross FB7: Ginga Rukon - Ore no Uta wo Kike!
10, *1,153 **1,153 Kotoura-san vol.2
(cut-off 1153)

DVD
*1, 23,079 *,143,905 Evangelion: 3.33 You Can (Not) Redo
*2, *2,870 *,*15,795 Naruto: Shippuuden Movie 6 - Road to Ninja Limited Edition
*3, *1,153 *,**8,250 New Prince of Tennis vol.7
*4, *1,053 *,**3,367 Naruto: Shippuuden Movie 6 - Road to Ninja Standard Edition
*5, **,994 *,**5,860 Sword Art Online vol.7
*6, **,962 *,**7,238 Hetalia: The Beautiful World vol.1
*7, **,935 *,***,935 Naruto Shippuuden Shinobigatana Shichinin Shu no Sho vol.2
*8, **,894 1,187,692 Tonari no Totoro
*9, **,874 *,*59,819 MS Gundam UC vol.6
10, **,843 *,***,843 Ixion Saga DT vol.6
11, **,801 *,**3,927 JoJo's Bizarre Adventure vol.4
12, **,766 *,**8,201 Gintama': Enchousen vol.3
13, **,672 *,*43,097 Ookami Kodomo no Ame to Yuki
14, **,637 *,**3,174 Magi vol.5 Limited Edition
15, **,568 *,**9,484 Kamiusagi Rope
16, **,556 *,503,568 Majo no Takkyuubin
17, **,511 *,**9,572 Kamiusagi Rope 3
18, **,469 *,**1,157 GenkiGenkiNontan Spoon TanTanTan
19, **,455 *,**2,709 Amnesia vol.2
20, **,453 *,**8,807 Kamiusagi Rope tsuka, Natsuyasumi Rasuichi tte Maji ssuka!?
(cut-off 452)

CD Single
*2, 79,182 79,182 Crayon Shin-chan Movie 21: Bakauma! B-Kyuu Gourmet Survival Battle!! theme song "RPG"
*4, 22,193 22,193 Uta no☆Prince-sama♪ Maji Love 2000% character song "Idol Song: Syo Kurusu"
*7, 12,155 12,155 Arata Kangatari OP "Genesis Aria"
*8, 12,092 39,224 The IDOLM@STER Live Theater Performance vol.1 "Thank You!"
*9, 11,777 62,622 Uta no☆Prince-sama♪ Maji Love 2000% theme song "MAji Love 2000%"
11, *8,854 26,236 Prince of Tennis musical stage "We are always together"
22, *3,936 35,165 Ore no Imouto ga Konnani Kawaii Wake ga Nai. OP "reunion"
23, *3,588 15,276 Haiyore! Nyaruko-san W OP "Koi wa Chaos no Shimobee Nari"
26, *3,209 *3,209 Uchuu Senkan Yamato 2199 OP "Uchuu Senkan Yamato"
30, *2,445 22,492 Hentai Ouji to Warawanai Neko. OP "Fantastic future"
33, *2,280 *9,173 Suisei no Gargantia OP "Kono Sekai wo Bokura wa Matteita"
34, *2,266 62,593 AKB0048 Next Stage OP & ED "Kono Namida wo Kimi ni Sasagu"
35, *2,110 *9,086 Namiuchigiwa no Muromi-san "Nanatsu no Umi yori Kimi no Umi"
42, *1,754 *8,339 Yuyushiki OP & ED "Se-no!! / Affection"
44, *1,610 36,944 Uta no☆Prince-sama♪ Maji Love 2000% OP "Canon"
45, *1,601 *5,988 Mahou Shoujo Lyrical Nanoha: The Movie 2nd A's character song "Snow Rain ~unison~trilogy~"
48, *1,415 12,774 Detective Conan Movie 17: Private Eye in the Distant Sea theme song "One More Time"
50, *1,381 *8,558 Yahari Ore no Seishun Love Come wa Machigatteiru. OP "Yukitoki"
51, *1,353 *4,126 Steins;Gate: Fuka Ryouiki no Déjà vu ED "Itsumo Kono Basho de"
53, *1,329 *4,560 Hataraku Maou-sama! OP "Zero!!"
54, *1,318 *4,424 Steins;Gate: Fuka Ryouiki no Déjà vu OP "Anata no Eranda Kono Toki wo"
63, *1,070 21,944 Dokidoki! Precure OP & ED "Happy Go Lucky! Dokidoki Precure / Kono Sora no Mukou"
(cut-off 1,000)

CD Album
31, *2,394 *8,880 angela "Zero"
57, *1,559 *8,272 StylipS "The Lightning Celebration"
(cut-off 1,000)

Source: Oricon Youtaiju

Anime Sales Music Sales

20 of 140 Comments Recent Comments

jmal said:
Henneko shows that bigotry is powerless when compared to Kantoku bedsheets.

Rightfully so. Last episode was probably the most delicious, I was worried after 03 and 04 but it seems HenNeko is back to AOTS competition.

May 14, 2013 3:55 PM by Progeusz

jmal said:
Henneko shows that bigotry is powerless when compared to Kantoku bedsheets.

yep

Still the misplaced nationalism shook me up a little.

May 14, 2013 3:14 PM by Hoppy

jmal said:
Henneko shows that bigotry is powerless when compared to Kantoku bedsheets.

I can understand them, Kantoku art is so cute

May 14, 2013 1:45 PM by jasque

jasque said:
How would Henneko do before the korean stuff?

Really minimal impact I would say. Ranking in Amazon was not affected, despite a bunch of 1-star reviews written by some who are determined to vilify it on that issue.

May 14, 2013 12:40 PM by symbv

jmal said:

zeroyuki92 said:
This probably is kinda off-topic, but do anyone already have a (Very) rough prediction of Spring's upcoming sales? With a very good average quality in this season, I wonder if they are going to sell quite well, too. I honestly have no idea about which shows that will sell or not this time. >___<

Estimates would very very very rough at this point. An estimate for, say, Shingeki could easily end up off by 20,000 units either way. Sequels can be guesstimated based on previous seasons, at best.

But to completely pull some estimates out of my ass, not even looking at Stalker's estimates:

20k+
Shingeki no Kyojin

15k-20k
To Aru Kagaku no Railgun S
Uta no Prince-sama Maji Love 2000%
Ore no Imouto ga Konna ni Kawaii Wake ga nai.

10k-15k
Suisei no Gargantia

5k-10k
Kakumeiki Valvrave
Hataraku Maou-sama!

0-5k
Everything else

Guess for averages, not just Vol. 1.

There are some other potential 5k sellers like Date A Live or HenNeko or Nyaruko W or Azazel-san Z.

Railgun and OreImo I have a feeling will drop below 20k. At least OreImo anyway. UtaPri should clear 20k easily for v1 with the event ticket but drop lower for 2-5 like season one.

Shingeki could be 15k, could be 50k, fuck if anyone knows at this point.

I'm probably not giving Gargantia enough credit but it's really hard to know how much of its rank comes from the act that its MSRP is higher (which results in higher ranking). Hell it could be 20k for all we know. Only 3 boxes and one format, so it shouldn't see a lot of release attrition.

There is lots and lots of time for this to change completely. Therefore my guesses are meaningless!

(And in my heart, Yuyushiki will always be 1,000,000+.)

How would Henneko do before the korean stuff?

May 14, 2013 12:34 PM by jasque

symbv said:
On the other hand, the real action for Railgun is only just beginning. And the guess is that the Stalker estimate is likely to be an underestimation, so a 15k sales is entirely possible. And if the coming episodes indeed prove very popular, its sales forecast will also benefit. Its OP CD has taken No.1 in Oricon Singles CD Weekly Sales Ranking with >26k sales, just another indication of the popularity of the series.

This could be true. I've seen Railgun BDs ranking a few times in Top selling lists at the other retailers (HMV, gamers, softmap and Animate). This was during the initial swarm of the most dedicated fans securing their copies for all volumes.

The good thing as well is that most volumes are going to do probably very similar numbers compared to some other series with a strong volume 1, but huge drops in sales from volume 2 and onwards.

May 14, 2013 12:22 AM by Ejc

scytheavatar said:
Am I right to say that things are looking extremely grim for Railgun2 and Oreimo2? Both are series you'll expect to hit 20k or at least 15K with ease, and the numbers suggest that the otakus are getting sick and tired of the saturation of light novel adaptions.

OreImo2 is not looking too well. There are clearly substantially more voices criticizing the series in Japan, ranging from Kyousuke becoming less appealing to issues about the series composition and adaptation choices. There is a real possibility that the sales could substantially less than season 1 and it is probable that it will not be among the TOP FOUR BESTSELLER of the season.

On the other hand, the real action for Railgun is only just beginning. And the guess is that the Stalker estimate is likely to be an underestimation, so a 15k sales is entirely possible. And if the coming episodes indeed prove very popular, its sales forecast will also benefit. Its OP CD has taken No.1 in Oricon Singles CD Weekly Sales Ranking with >26k sales, just another indication of the popularity of the series.

And I wonder how you come to jump to the conclusion that " the numbers suggest that the otakus are getting sick and tired of the saturation of light novel adaptions"?? Railgun is a manga, for goodness sake - it may be a spin-off of the Index LN but it is NOT an adpatation of it. Hataraku Maousama is doing very well. OreGairu has given a very decent boost to ts LN sales. Not to say the very good sales for SAO a little earlier. All you can say is just that the franchise OreImo may get a bit tired. That's it. But this is no reason to feed any pet theory that "the otakus are getting sick and tired of the saturation of light novel adaptation".

May 14, 2013 12:14 AM by symbv

Am I right to say that things are looking extremely grim for Railgun2 and Oreimo2? Both are series you'll expect to hit 20k or at least 15K with ease, and the numbers suggest that the otakus are getting sick and tired of the saturation of light novel adaptions.

May 13, 2013 11:43 PM by scytheavatar

jmal said:
No, symbv. Life is not a constant state of total war where compromise is tantamount to capitulating to an enemy. I have no intention of engaging in some intellectual running firefight with you every week on this, nor should you interpret it as such if I voice concerns about the statistic in the future. I wish you wouldn't interpret everything as being antagonistic all the time, especially from people like me who generally enjoy discussing things with you and honestly aren't out to get you just because there's a disagreement over something stupid like this.

Do you really think I took it the way I did because I thought you are here to personally disparage me? Or out to get me?? Of course I didn't. Rereading my metaphor may help you understand my thinking behind my reaction. I would never want to fight heated debates every single time, but if you have to attach "wildly unreliable" label as a general statement for Stalker sales estimate (or saying it should not be used in discussions without "reams of context" etc), then I will react to it every single time. This is what I meant in my post. As for "total war", you call this "total war"? From my experience, this is far far away from a total war. At most it is just some intense skirmish. My life has seen quite a bit more than this kind of skirmishes.

========

Anyway, I am shifting to give a thumbs-up to the Amazon Stalker developer. In fewer than 3 hours after I sent them the message about what I wanted the new tabs to function, and I got what I want !!! The new function is updated so that now whenever I go back from clicking into a page of individual title from the "Spring Anime" tab, I am returned to the "Spring Anime" tab again. YES !!!! And even when I reload the page to get the latest update I stay in the "Spring Anime" tab too. YES YES !!!!

May 13, 2013 1:15 PM by symbv

jmal said:
I'm deliberately ignoring your metaphor because debating metaphors always becomes about the metaphor itself rather than the original issue and the disagreement isn't complicated enough to need abstracting out to start with.

I don't easily use metaphor myself precisely because of the same reason, but I would use it when I find an appropriate one to use or when I think using it helps illustrating a point better, which is the case here. I think my metaphor clearly shows why my reaction is not overreaction nor taking it overly personal.

jmal said:
Of course it all requires explanation, there's no way you can seriously think I have ever said or felt otherwise. But the final estimate requires the most because it assumes the most and is most susceptible to fluctuations and statistical overreactions.

No, I cannot disagree more. As I said I have not seen any of such misunderstanding you are fearing when I use the information for my analysis, and if anything we almost always see confused "first-timers" misinterpreting the actual sales data. So the evidence clearly points to no less difficult task when it comes to using actual sales data for discussion.

jmal said:
So no, I don't like it, and think Stalker should 1. improve it, 2. offer alternatives calculated different ways, or 3. not calculate it more than a month out. That said I still tried to take the middle ground and just recommend some more numerical context but apparently that makes me biased against all of Stalker, okay then.

For your concerns: 1) It is being constantly improved. I would not have used it a few years ago but I feel sufficiently good about it to use it for analysis now. 2) If this measurement is considered good enough, offering alternatives can be seen as a misallocation of resource for the developers 3) This is only because you are stuck in the overly narrow scope of its usage, namely it is really for the final "final sales prediction", instead of using it as what it is meant to be, a running estimation of the "final sales prediction"

jmal said:
if you're going to give prominence to the final estimate, other people should be able to say - without you assuming they're attacking you personally - that they think there's serious problems with it and that it's not the best way (easiest, but not best) to represent what you're intending trying to show.

And I should be able to react to such criticism too, just like what I have done with yours, and I am free to give reasons for my rejection of the biased opinion that its problems are so serious that render it unusable for discussion. I guess we can prepare for such debates every time the Stalker final estimate is brought up then, perhaps by me or perhaps by you, like in this case. I know I am ready.

May 13, 2013 12:38 PM by symbv

jmal said:
symbv, I am rolling my eyes really hard right now. Assuming my statement was intended to personally disparage you rather than it being an opinion I've held about an overly simplistic statistic on a website since before I'd even met you is the definition of taking it way too personally. You are not Stalker.

Of course I am not Stalker, but I take issue with your general statement that the Stalker is being "wildly unreliable" with its final estimate, implying it is not useful and should not be used (which is confirmed by your later elaboration of why, like how it is bad for first-timers or how it needs reams of context to use as if discussion of the actual sales requires less context). Let me give you an example to give you some idea why I take issue with your statement. Imagine an economist who does research using GDP forecast data to help his understanding about comparative economy performance, and then someone drops by and said the GDP forecast idea is "wildly unreliable" and thus not suitable to use in discussion because first-timers will misunderstand (should we stop them from discussing economy just because GDP forecast is such a tricky concept for them to avoid misunderstanding?) or it is an overly simplistic number. I am sure that economist would take issue with such opinion from that person, and it is not because that economist thinks that he is the GDP forecast.

jmal said:
That aside, now that the argument is being turned into "If you dare to criticize this single specific data point you might as well throw all sales discussion out the window", we've clearly exhausted whatever constructive debate there was to have.

The two arguments are just the same. You cannot put up constructive debate point saying that "reams of context" is required before we start to use Stalker prediction for discussion without saying the same when we want to use the actual sales data for discussion. To say one requires "reams of context" but not the other one is just double-standard.

May 13, 2013 11:42 AM by symbv

jmal said:
It's very common for first timers to misunderstand the number. Whether they think it's a solid prediction, or misunderstand how it's calculated. But realizing it will change is one thing, realizing just how much it can change is another. The latter is where a lot of people get (quite understandably) confused.

I just don't see any misunderstanding or confusion you are talking here. You (and a few in Mania) always say this but I just don't see this as the case. Besides I have already added explanations in my analysis. To be honest, if we talk about first timers there are A LOT MORE that they can misunderstand and get confused, like event ticket effect or something as simple as not seeing a title in the list just because it is not in the full list or it is in its 3rd week of release. And of course the misunderstanding about how much the sales mean for the success/failure of an anime series. You might as well want to stop talking about BD/DVD sales if you argue for not using Stalker as a useful metric just because of fear about misunderstanding/confusion from first-timers.

jmal said:

No. Besides when you first said "wildly unreliable" you are not saying it only for "titles that sell enough for the majority of people to care"

Uh, that's because it came up as a side comment in a post about Stalker's new tabbed UI, not as part of an essay about algorithms.

And thus your statement came out as a general statement about Stalker being 'wildly unreliable" for every anime title. Besides, as I said, your criterion about "titles that sell enough for the majority of people to care" would apply to only very few titles because only title that sold tens of thousands would likely to get "the majority" of people to care.

jmal said:
I think you're overreacting to criticism of Stalker, and not for the first time.

I am reacting, but NOT overreacting. And you know that I take Stalker estimate seriously and you still want to give provoking statement, right? Shame on you.

jmal said:
Don't take it personally - and maybe you aren't but that's how it comes across There are certainly unfair criticisms I've seen made of Stalker, but in my opinion complaints about the final prediction number are for the most part definitely justified.

What I am saying is despite its shortcomings it is by far the most convenient and the most available measurement around, and given its broadly accurate information, particularly when it comes to seeing trends and comparing with other titles, thus it is the best measurement to use. It is also a number that people can immediately understand and associate.

jmal said:
Far from being a "clear and concise summary", it's too simple without reams of context you just have to cross your fingers and hope people actually read, making it very very tricky to use.

As I said, the same can be said with any discussion of the actual sales. Shall we provide reams of context like why we should not just view vol.1 sales as the measurement of how successful an anime is or why a certain anime series actually performs well because of all the other reasons like the LN sales, before we start a discussion? Why should we have any discussion thread for the BD/DVD sales then as the sales data are very very tricky to use anyway?

May 13, 2013 11:12 AM by symbv

jmal said:
What we intend and what people get out of something are often different. Not saying you're responsible for people who don't want to read all the caveats and minutiae, but if we can make things easier by providing more or better metrics, it's worth at least considering.

Depends on how much time/work you need to produce that "better metrics". We can always create additional engine to crunch the number to come up with an even better measurement, but for me, as I said, I want to have that little confidence for the intelligence of those who read my analysis. So far, in MAL and in Mania despite all the alarms some people are crying, I have yet to see a single person who thinks the current "final sales estimate" is really going to be the final estimate as if it is not going to shift over the weeks before its release date.

jmal said:
Not all of Stalker, no, but the final predictions this far out, for titles that sell enough for the majority of people to care, yes.

As I said, it is just like the GDP forecast, it may be off, but people can still find it useful. Do we call GDP forecast 2 or 3 years ahead as "wildly unreliable"? No. Besides when you first said "wildly unreliable" you are not saying the comment is only for "titles that sell enough for the majority of people to care" (and I wonder what they are, because most anime are only watched by a minority of people anyway).

jmal said:
What it comes down to for me is, if I want to tell people how a title has performed just over the past week, a measurement that only covers a week is better information than one that projects the week for months into the future even if both technically can be used in the same way.

Your preference of course, and I won't stop you crunching the huge amount of data week in week out. From my point of view, the benefits of using the median rank do not overcome its shortcomings, but I would agree that the median rank information can be useful too. Just don't say that just because you find it better the other measurement is a bad thing to use as it is "wildly unreliable". You may want to qualify your statement now, but honestly when you first mentioned it I did not see you meant it in the much more restricted sense that you are trying to "clarify" now .

May 13, 2013 9:39 AM by symbv

jmal said:

Ejc said:
I wish it did. Just think if a title hit #1 every time for the 0th hour for a week (that's how Stalker assigns daily points to the accumulated points, right?)

Not sure but I always assumed it was based on the average rank through the previous day not just midnight rank. If it's midnight only that's kinda problematic.

I realised yeah. My mistake. I just looked at the point additions for Shingeki. A 358 points difference couldn't possibly be accounted for in the Nico preorders. And it spent the whole day at #2 on the 12th, but not on the 11th, which would explain the difference in points allocation on the 12th and 13th.

【2013年 05月 11日(土)】 **9,191
【2013年 05月 12日(日)】 *10,418 (+1,227) [#2]
【2013年 05月 13日(月)】 *12,003 (+1,585) [#2]
【2013年 05月 14日(火)】 *14,403 (+2,400) [#1]

May 13, 2013 9:27 AM by Ejc

jmal said:
And while it is most visible at the top tiers, honestly the only thing more casual sales watchers tend to care about are 1. big sellers and 2. big shifts, the two things Stalker's estimations overreact to most.

My analysis is not really catering to such narrow interests, and as I said in the vast majority of the cases the Stalker numbers are pretty useful, at least in what I am using them for.

jmal said:
I'm certainly not telling you how or what to post, as aggregating any degree of this stuff is a lot of work as I know all too well. But if you can find a way to easily provide more statistical context than just the final prediction it'd be helpful to a lot of people. That's all.

Honestly I don't think people would really think the "final prediction" of Stalker is going to be very accurate if the release date is many weeks away. I would assume people who read the data to understand the prediction is a rough estimation after all - I want to have that little confidence for the intelligence of those who read my analysis. And from my side, I am pretty against putting "wildly unreliable" label for the Stalker as it really sounds biased to me.

May 13, 2013 9:26 AM by symbv

jmal said:
Oh, stalker just updated and it shows how much the final prediction can change at a moment's notice...

Shingeki v1 BD is now predicted at 98516pt. A 20k jump in an instant, because the latest day got a 2400 point boost for averaging #1, and the small 346 point jump between May 6 and may 7 rolled off and the 2400 point jump from May 13 to May 14 rolled on.

Now the average gained per day is 1,335.14, and the predicted additional points are 84,114 and the final prediction is 98,516.

It's just a number you need to be realllllllly careful with. Not saying you aren't, I know you put caveats in your comments, but it's not just obsessed sales watchers like us who look at these numbers and make assumptions based on them.

Man I really just wish Stalker had a more sophisticated final prediction algorithm.

I wish it did. Just think if a title hit #1 every time for the 0th hour for a week (that's how Stalker assigns daily points to the accumulated points, right?), so it adds 16,800 to the total (not taking Nico preorders into account), but it spends the majority of the time at a obviously lower rank, say #2. Or even more unlikely, it does this for the whole time before release. It would be so overestimated that I don't even want to think about it.

May 13, 2013 9:13 AM by Ejc

^ But you are using a rather extreme example. As I already mentioned in a few previous posts in this thread, prediction near the top 3 tends to have much lower accuracy because the points added can vary a lot from the actual sales for those titles at the very top. Here a median ranking is less aberrant, true. However, the benefit of an immediately available and continuously updating number that people can quickly identify (sales is much easier to grasp and react than a median ranking) is still there. And for titles outside of the topmost tier, which is the case for the majority of the titles, the aberration is much more limited and hence is still useful.

And we know how off the final predictions of Stalker for Evangelion movies.

May 13, 2013 9:05 AM by symbv

symbv said:

Ejc said:

symbv said:
Anyway, Ejc, I think you may have missed one GirlPan DVD in the daily DVD ranking ;-)

Huh really? I swear I copied today's ranks correctly, lol.

This is because it is a DVD that is very special ;-)

Check the #3 of the DVD daily list http://www.oricon.co.jp/rank/dg/d/2013-05-12/ also and this video

A really really special case I should say, particularly this is not really a GirlPan DVD but also so GirlPan (if you know what I mean).

I am sure if it is not for GirlPan it won't even reach top 20 or even 50.

Oh that's what you mean haha. Man, that's pretty awesome with Yukari's narration. So it only got 1 day of ranking this week then... yeah it probably would've not reached #3 if it wasn't for GaruPan indeed.

May 13, 2013 8:54 AM by Ejc

Ejc said:

symbv said:
Anyway, Ejc, I think you may have missed one GirlPan DVD in the daily DVD ranking ;-)

Huh really? I swear I copied today's ranks correctly, lol.

This is because it is a DVD that is very special ;-)

Check the #3 of the DVD daily list http://www.oricon.co.jp/rank/dg/d/2013-05-12/ also and this video

May 13, 2013 8:38 AM by symbv

symbv said:
Anyway, Ejc, I think you may have missed one GirlPan DVD in the daily DVD ranking ;-)

Huh really? I swear I copied today's ranks correctly, lol.

May 13, 2013 8:35 AM by Ejc

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