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Feb 11, 2014 11:29 PM
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Maybe the event ticket power? I'm glad someone is buying. Show is quite good.
Feb 11, 2014 11:48 PM
Lilium Gardener

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Arpeggio, Arpeggio, Arpeggio!!!
Feb 11, 2014 11:53 PM
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volare1 said:
Maybe the event ticket power? I'm glad someone is buying. Show is quite good.


But the event ticket was announced a long time back. Why the sudden jump now I wonder? It happened after the latest episode.
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Feb 12, 2014 2:54 AM

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Wow, Natsume :O So glad to see it there in the top 2!


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Feb 12, 2014 6:31 AM
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Any know where I can buy BluRays, I'm trying to get the Kill la Kill BDs?

And how do you check the Amazon.co.jp anime preorders?
danuchiha99Feb 12, 2014 6:37 AM
Feb 12, 2014 7:30 AM
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Blu-ray
*1. 14,477 14,477 Free! Vol.6

Ahahaha :3
Feb 12, 2014 8:24 AM
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*1. 27,067 Infinite Stratos 2

Oh dear god this is not happening.....
These sales figures are disgusting to put it lightly....
Feb 12, 2014 8:54 AM
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jmal said:

Just asked that elsewhere, the ticket was known but it seems they confirmed some of the extras, including the contents of the drama CD and some event-related info. So this is an extras-related boost.


Ah, that makes sense. That's why the other volumes haven't budged. Thanks.

EDIT: So, this has been bothering me for a while now but Hamatora only has 4 BD/DVDs listed on Stalker. It only has 12 episodes but I thought it would have at least 5 discs. But if it's only 4 discs, then even if it drops after an event ticket drop in volume 3, it won't be affected so much.
phoenixaliaFeb 12, 2014 10:14 AM
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Feb 12, 2014 10:32 AM

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Keetriver said:
*1. 27,067 Infinite Stratos 2

Oh dear god this is not happening.....
These sales figures are disgusting to put it lightly....

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Feb 12, 2014 10:50 AM
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tsubasalover said:
*4. 10,398 Non Non Biyori

Love those numbers for NNB, sure hope this will lead to a second season. This show was just too entertaining and most of all relaxing to stay at just one season.

tsubasalover said:
18. *2,547 Teekyuu 3

As much as I liked Teekyuu, I continue to be amazed that a 12-episode 4-minute show is selling that well
Feb 12, 2014 11:11 AM

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jmal said:
rederoin said:
Keetriver said:
*1. 27,067 Infinite Stratos 2

Oh dear god this is not happening.....
These sales figures are disgusting to put it lightly....

Welcome to 3-4 months ago.

And to a volume that's sold 40% more than subsequent volumes because it's a quasi-OVA.

This is why I wish I could abandon Vol. 1 rankings entirely, but people want (understandably) a way to compare sales early in the season, without waiting for months to get a few volumes on the he per-volume and averages lists. Ah well...


And I'd imagine this is a big reason why producers also want big first volume sales and stuff it with extras... its more on peoples minds then the other volume sales, and probably helps their stocks too. People tend to remember the first volume sales since only the hardcore really track volume sales beyond the first.

Feb 12, 2014 11:26 AM

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danuchiha99 said:
Any know where I can buy BluRays, I'm trying to get the Kill la Kill BDs?


CDJapan or Play-Asia. I only have experience with the former (bought the OST from them) but they appear to be trustworthy, and from what I heard Play-Asia is a popular and liked option as well.
Feb 12, 2014 11:35 AM

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Dodgers20 said:
danuchiha99 said:
Any know where I can buy BluRays, I'm trying to get the Kill la Kill BDs?


CDJapan or Play-Asia. I only have experience with the former (bought the OST from them) but they appear to be trustworthy, and from what I heard Play-Asia is a popular and liked option as well.


I only use amazonjp
Feb 12, 2014 11:55 AM

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I use CDJapan.co.jp (good bonuses, points, has the most shipping options, let's you add to orders and move items between orders) mostly these days but used to use Amazon.co.jp (best Bluray discount, no bonuses or points overseas, only AmazonGlobal DHL shipping) for years and have used HMV.co.jp once too (bonuses, points, EMS shipping only which is slow here once it becomes Canada Post at this end). Never used Honto since they won't tell me the shipping charge until after they ship it.

Anywhere else pretty much requires a proxy.
Feb 12, 2014 12:08 PM

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Dodgers20 said:
danuchiha99 said:
Any know where I can buy BluRays, I'm trying to get the Kill la Kill BDs?


CDJapan or Play-Asia. I only have experience with the former (bought the OST from them) but they appear to be trustworthy, and from what I heard Play-Asia is a popular and liked option as well.


YesAsia.com too~

it's the only shop I use to import japanese stuff because it has free worldwide shipping (but it's really slow)

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Feb 12, 2014 1:35 PM

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jmal said:
Aozumi said:
YesAsia.com too~

it's the only shop I use to import japanese stuff because it has free worldwide shipping (but it's really slow)

"Free", but they're baking it into the price with markup (or, lack of discount if you want to look at it that way).

(...)


yeah, I'm aware of that but the free shipping helps because I always buy a lot at the same time (and living in Europe doesn't help to reduce costs....) :P

this and I'm more familiar with the shop (already 5-6 years since my first order) :x

though I was thinking on trying CDJapan an Mandarake next time because of some books and novels only they have
NemuriNezumiFeb 12, 2014 1:40 PM

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Feb 12, 2014 1:40 PM

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tsubasalover said:

*1. 14,477 14,477 Free! Vol.6
It will never leave, it will never leave!!XD
tsubasalover said:

13. *,479 *,*23,970 Gintama: Kanketsu-hen - Yorozuya yo Eien Nare Regular Edition
14. *,362 *,*60,829 Gintama: Kanketsu-hen - Yorozuya yo Eien Nare Limited Edition
So... New season when? :)
rederoin said:

27 Jan -> 10 November

3.4k -> 7.8k Hoozuki no Reitetsu
... Am I the only one who likes this show around here? T.T
And no, I'm not a fangirl, I find it genuinely interesting. I guess I have a soft spot for anime that talk about japanese folklore, huh.
But all the clocks in the city
Began to whirr and chime:
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Feb 12, 2014 1:49 PM

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I had used amazon exclusively since 2006 until last year when some of their quirks and those of DHL drove me to try CDJapan where I am happy aside from paying retail - tax and points. So I am just using them now. FedEx ticked me off last week by refusing to get my package out of a container that night after it arrived late, so I had to wait until the next day but so far no complaints about CDJapan... Hmm, except that I often have to inform them of new releases rather than them informing me but they are very quick when I send them request emails so with me on the ball about new releases I want it works out OK.
Feb 12, 2014 9:22 PM
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Silent_Chime said:

rederoin said:

27 Jan -> 10 November

3.4k -> 7.8k Hoozuki no Reitetsu
... Am I the only one who likes this show around here? T.T
And no, I'm not a fangirl, I find it genuinely interesting. I guess I have a soft spot for anime that talk about japanese folklore, huh.


You're not alone! I like this show too. I find it very funny.
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Feb 13, 2014 6:44 AM

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*2. 11,871 11,871 Natsume Yuujinchou: Itsuka Yuki no Hi ni Limited Edition
*3. *9,076 *9,076 Aoki Hagane no Arpeggio: Ars Nova Vol.2
*4. *6,731 *6,731 Kill la Kill Vol.2 Limited Edition
Good good.Definitely nice to see all of those in top 5.

*6. *2,879 *2,879 Kyoukai no Kanata Vol.2
Not bad KnK!...i wish it would sell more than Free!, but meh fujoshi power is too stronk.

*6. 15,129 *15,129 Nourin OP "Himitsu no Door kara Ai ni Kite" by Yukari Tamura
Why?? i dont know how about you guys, but isnt this opening like...really average? compared to Noragami's and some other.Damn.

*1. 27,067 Infinite Stratos 2
HUH, AGAIN? wow, Japan ,_,
Feb 13, 2014 6:59 AM

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iLostReason said:
...
*6. 15,129 *15,129 Nourin OP "Himitsu no Door kara Ai ni Kite" by Yukari Tamura
Why?? i dont know how about you guys, but isnt this opening like...really average? compared to Noragami's and some other.Damn.
...
Taste is subjective of course. I bought Nourin OP but not Noragami's though I will be buying the ED for it as I love Tia/SuperCell.

And that's what you mostly need to look at for sales. Nourin OP is popular because it's sung by seiyuu/singer Tamura Yukari. Yukarin is very popular and sales are mostly a popularity contest.

Noragami's OP is by Hello Sleepwalkers:
36. *2,100 **6,477 Noragami OP "Goya no Machiawase" by Hello Sleepwalkers

This is actually their best single yet so they are not a very popular Japanese rock band, not yet anyway.
http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Sleepwalkers
発売日 タイトル 規格 規格品番 最高位
1st 2011年10月5日 センチメンタル症候群 12cm CD HSW-1 -
2nd 2012年6月6日 円盤飛来 12cm CD AZCS-2019 96位
3rd 2014年1月29日 午夜の待ち合わせ 12cm CD AZCS-2031 23位

The last one on the list is the Noragami OP ranked at highest, 23rd. Their previous single ranked 96, their first didn't rank at all.
hpulleyFeb 13, 2014 7:03 AM
Feb 13, 2014 7:07 AM
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jmal said:
Full rankings for 02/03 - 02/09: http://www.someanithing.com/?p=819

Will do the other ranking updates and such in a bit.


Cool stuff. NagiAsu v1 STILL there lol. V2 already a little more than v1 huh? It's kind of amusing (maybe not the right word) to see NagiAsu take what we might think we know about how sales work and just tear it to shreds.

StB 6k? That's pretty solid. People can complain about it being just another harem or whatever, but personally I like some of the characters (was a Sayaka fan but then La Folia came along and whoa...those attributes) so I wanted to see it do well, and it looks like it has.

Arpeggio has done very well. Another one I was rooting for. Not sure how much of its success is/was related to KanColle and how much is due to its own merit, but if an anime is coming out for KanColle (which IIRC one is) then maybe we will find out soon.

And WA2 over 3k. Did v2 outsell v1 (by 4)? Interesting.

This might be a stupid question, but did Mononoke get rereleased or something?
Feb 13, 2014 7:26 AM

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^^^ NagiAsu v2 has DVDs counted while v1 did not which is too bad but likely explains the difference.

WA2 v2 outselling v1 by a bit is likely just data noise but I am glad it is consistent. As v1 did not have an event ticket or special bonuses I am at least hoping it won't drop off more and perhaps along with all the other merch it can manage to get a season 2 somehow.
Feb 13, 2014 7:32 AM
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hpulley said:
^^^ NagiAsu v2 has DVDs counted while v1 did not which is too bad but likely explains the difference.

WA2 v2 outselling v1 by a bit is likely just data noise but I am glad it is consistent. As v1 did not have an event ticket or special bonuses I am at least hoping it won't drop off more and perhaps along with all the other merch it can manage to get a season 2 somehow.


Ahhh that makes sense. Have we ever seen a show with significantly greater v2 sales than v1?
Feb 13, 2014 8:22 AM

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Hahalollawl said:
... Have we ever seen a show with significantly greater v2 sales than v1?
Some due to v1 stock issues, yes. Garupan et al.
Feb 13, 2014 10:23 AM
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iLostReason said:
Why?? i dont know how about you guys, but isnt this opening like...really average? compared to Noragami's and some other.Damn.


I agree. It's the best OP for me and next to that is Nagi no Asukara's second OP. Best ED is Nagi no Asukara's second ED and after that comes Noragami's ED.

But according to what hpulley said, this is good news for Hello Sleepwalkers. I hope it adds more next week as well.
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Feb 13, 2014 2:25 PM

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All I really care about is Free!
Keep it up my swimmerbros.

Seriously though, can't get over how well it actually ended up doing, and that just pleases me so. I'll be arranging a space on my shelf for all the volumes shortly.
“Victor can’t be satisfied by anyone but me.”

Feb 13, 2014 2:42 PM

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hpulley said:
iLostReason said:
...
*6. 15,129 *15,129 Nourin OP "Himitsu no Door kara Ai ni Kite" by Yukari Tamura
Why?? i dont know how about you guys, but isnt this opening like...really average? compared to Noragami's and some other.Damn.
...
Taste is subjective of course. I bought Nourin OP but not Noragami's though I will be buying the ED for it as I love Tia/SuperCell.

And that's what you mostly need to look at for sales. Nourin OP is popular because it's sung by seiyuu/singer Tamura Yukari. Yukarin is very popular and sales are mostly a popularity contest.

Noragami's OP is by Hello Sleepwalkers:
36. *2,100 **6,477 Noragami OP "Goya no Machiawase" by Hello Sleepwalkers

This is actually their best single yet so they are not a very popular Japanese rock band, not yet anyway.
http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Sleepwalkers
発売日 タイトル 規格 規格品番 最高位
1st 2011年10月5日 センチメンタル症候群 12cm CD HSW-1 -
2nd 2012年6月6日 円盤飛来 12cm CD AZCS-2019 96位
3rd 2014年1月29日 午夜の待ち合わせ 12cm CD AZCS-2031 23位

The last one on the list is the Noragami OP ranked at highest, 23rd. Their previous single ranked 96, their first didn't rank at all.

Of course.I actually shouldnt have say anything about Nourin's OP, since its people's choice to buy it and enjoy.I guess i was just disappointed that song which IMO(!) sounds like 20 others i heard before sold way more than one which is imo unique and has amazing sound to it, but then again it was probably selfish.I find it unfair tho, that something sells way more just because its an single released by someone hella popular (Tamura Yukari in this case), but thats just me moaning about something that will never change, so anyways meh.
Also, i checked HS singles sale data earlier as well, and im really happy for them.Anyways, thanks for more detailed info =)
Feb 13, 2014 3:06 PM

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I understand your feelings very well. Sometimes I go to a bar and hear a really good indie band or singer and I buy their self published CD for $20 to help them out and to have their song but I know that most of them will never make it. Life isn't fair and this is especially true for artists, sadly, of all media.

Hopefully with this single ranking at 23rd and this popular anime showcasing their work, Hello Sleepwalkers will continue to become more popular and more successful.
Feb 13, 2014 8:12 PM
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iLostReason said:
*6. 15,129 *15,129 Nourin OP "Himitsu no Door kara Ai ni Kite" by Yukari Tamura
Why?? i dont know how about you guys, but isnt this opening like...really average? compared to Noragami's and some other.Damn.


It's one of the better OPs of the season, I do like it more than Noragami's but probably not as much as Mikakunin de Shinkoukei's OP which is probably the best OP of the season. But all that doesn't matter because Yukari Tamura guarantees that the OP will sell.
Feb 13, 2014 8:45 PM
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scytheavatar said:
iLostReason said:
*6. 15,129 *15,129 Nourin OP "Himitsu no Door kara Ai ni Kite" by Yukari Tamura
Why?? i dont know how about you guys, but isnt this opening like...really average? compared to Noragami's and some other.Damn.


It's one of the better OPs of the season, I do like it more than Noragami's but probably not as much as Mikakunin de Shinkoukei's OP which is probably the best OP of the season. But all that doesn't matter because Yukari Tamura guarantees that the OP will sell.


If we're talking about Winter OPs I actually rather like May'n's OP for Inari Konkon. It sold 7k+ I think, so that's pretty good I guess.

Personally I don't really feel very strongly either way about the Nourin OP. I actually find Yukari Tamura's voice in that a bit annoying. The song itself is okay I guess.

Nobunaga the Fool has a pretty catchy op by Chihara Minori. And yeah, Hello Sleepwalkers' OP is pretty good as well. Just my opinions of course.
Feb 13, 2014 9:49 PM

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What the...Am I dreaming or are those excellent sales for Natsume?
Feb 14, 2014 11:54 AM

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*1. 27,067 Infinite Stratos 2


PLEASE GIVE ME INFINITE STRATOS 3!!
「友達なんていない。人はすぐに裏切るし、学校っていうのは誰かを標的にしないとやってられない馬鹿共の集 まり。ままごとみたいな役決めて、仲のいいふりして都合が悪くなったら知らんぷり。そんな奴らと仲良くした いとか全然思わない。」
Feb 14, 2014 5:57 PM
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Persona 3 looking good early, outranking Madoka rebellion like that. I hope it sells well.
Love Live blurays showing up in the top 100 today. IIRC some volumes also were in the top 100 days ago.
Three versions (DVD, A limited, A regular) of Hozuki volume 1 on the top 200. I remember some guy telling me that hozuki will not do good. I wonder where is he now?
Feb 14, 2014 9:05 PM
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Jiharo said:
*1. 27,067 Infinite Stratos 2


PLEASE GIVE ME INFINITE STRATOS 3!!


The odds of there never being a IS3 is pretty high. The anime has caught up with the LN and the author apparently has gone AWOL. So IS is pretty much in the same situation as Haruhi was, especially with the huge drop in S2 sales compared to S1.
Feb 14, 2014 9:19 PM
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volare1 said:
Persona 3 looking good early, outranking Madoka rebellion like that. I hope it sells well.
Love Live blurays showing up in the top 100 today. IIRC some volumes also were in the top 100 days ago.
Three versions (DVD, A limited, A regular) of Hozuki volume 1 on the top 200. I remember some guy telling me that hozuki will not do good. I wonder where is he now?


Pfft... You want to pitch Madoka versus Persona? I appreciate the fandom but please. Ain't nothing got their hands on Persona! Persona is GoAT.

And who could hate Hoozuki? It's Gintama in Hell!


scytheavatar said:
Jiharo said:
*1. 27,067 Infinite Stratos 2


PLEASE GIVE ME INFINITE STRATOS 3!!


The odds of there never being a IS3 is pretty high. The anime has caught up with the LN and the author apparently has gone AWOL. So IS is pretty much in the same situation as Haruhi was, especially with the huge drop in S2 sales compared to S1.


I'd say give the dude sometimes. I was like him at first too, then came the disappointments and then came the discovery superior series than this crap. So he'll get over it soon.
Feb 14, 2014 10:02 PM
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Xinception said:


Pfft... You want to pitch Madoka versus Persona? I appreciate the fandom but please. Ain't nothing got their hands on Persona! Persona is GoAT.

And who could hate Hoozuki? It's Gintama in Hell!

I'm not pitching madoka versus persona. When did I ever said that anyway? I just said it outranked Madoka on amazon. Are you saying the two fanbase should go fighting each other just because one is doing better on an online shop? You are too sensitive.

Some guy said it wouldn't sell. I can't remember who. Just because he said it would not sell does not mean he hates it. Again, you are too sensitive.
Feb 15, 2014 6:21 AM

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scytheavatar said:
Jiharo said:
*1. 27,067 Infinite Stratos 2


PLEASE GIVE ME INFINITE STRATOS 3!!


The odds of there never being a IS3 is pretty high. The anime has caught up with the LN and the author apparently has gone AWOL. So IS is pretty much in the same situation as Haruhi was, especially with the huge drop in S2 sales compared to S1.


Huh? I saw online that the anime have not caught up with the LN yet. IS2 only animate the next 3 volumes of the LN according to what I researched.

So IS+IS2 only animated like 6 volumes out of like 8? The 9th is pending.

If there's no IS3 I'll prolly start reading the LN.
「友達なんていない。人はすぐに裏切るし、学校っていうのは誰かを標的にしないとやってられない馬鹿共の集 まり。ままごとみたいな役決めて、仲のいいふりして都合が悪くなったら知らんぷり。そんな奴らと仲良くした いとか全然思わない。」
Feb 15, 2014 7:40 AM

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To have easier access to/back-up/archive the estimates I keep track off, I made/revived a forum I made years ago and turned into a semi 'blog'. Just to make it easier for myself.


I'll obviously keep posting the estimates here every 2 weeks on Tuesday in the new sales thread, but since I always put the estimations together on Monday evening/night(GMT +1), i'll be posting on that site on Monday evening/night.


http://rederoin.motionsforum.com/

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Feb 17, 2014 1:12 AM
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lol i wouldn't trust stalker since it only graphs pre-orders. This season is a perfect example of so many "decent" anime but not anything that would garner hype or pre-order. Most people have a set budget for anime so they will probably just buy 2-3 anime that they end up liking. In which case, noone has any idea yet of what they will buy or what the sales will turn out.

The otaku model is outdated now, the industry for better or for worst has already been saved and is pretty much commercialized now. Dvd's don't even tell how much real profit is netted. Pretty much anything that is even remotely popular or profitable in other mediums gets shipped to anime now since it's much easier to make money.
Feb 17, 2014 10:50 AM
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taj69 said:
lol i wouldn't trust stalker since it only graphs pre-orders. This season is a perfect example of so many "decent" anime but not anything that would garner hype or pre-order. Most people have a set budget for anime so they will probably just buy 2-3 anime that they end up liking. In which case, noone has any idea yet of what they will buy or what the sales will turn out.

The otaku model is outdated now, the industry for better or for worst has already been saved and is pretty much commercialized now. Dvd's don't even tell how much real profit is netted. Pretty much anything that is even remotely popular or profitable in other mediums gets shipped to anime now since it's much easier to make money.


Hmmm...I would probably agree with the commercialized part and discs sales not necessarily determining profits. But the other stuff I'm not so sure. What do you mean by "otaku model"?

I thought the dependence on the sales of various merchandise/source material WAS the "otaku model". If so, then isn't that the model that fits the best?

And yeah, stalker is measuring preorders. But until the actual discs are available what else do you have to determine the success/reception of a show?

Also, are we sure that it's so easy to make money through anime (even with all related merchandise taken into account)? I'm not saying you're wrong but how do you know? I thought somewhere around two thirds of anime make a profit (over a long period of time), but still...I'm not sure that's "easy".

And I'm not sure I would call the industry "saved" at this point (assuming you believe it needed saving). What is your definition of "saved"? A market that is no longer contracting? An expanding market? Anyways, I still think enticing people into buying merchandise/discs in this age of digital media and the internet is a thorny issue. Fortunately for them, Japan seems to perhaps have a stronger attachment to physical media (you can check out this cnn article on cds in Japan http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/19/news/japan-cd-music/) than some other countries.

Finally, how much stock do we put into the "people have a limited budget" theory? I was under the impression that the more serious fans buy shows fairly early on (whether or not I think that's a good idea...) and that the NagiAsu boost (can we make that a thing like the Manabi Line? pretty please?) was a rare sight.

I mean, it seems to make financial sense since most people probably have limited funds, but I don't know how most anime purchasers think in terms of the purchase decision making process. It kind of seems like, based on people like jmal and hpulley (yeah not a great sample size, I admit) that people who can afford to buy the discs are already willing to pay quite a bit of money for something they like, and so they buy whatever they damn well please even if there are a bunch of shows they like in the same season (jmal especially, he buys multiples if he likes a show enough right? =P), budget be damned. So how much stock do we put in the theory that people are holding off because they want to be selective?
HahalollawlFeb 17, 2014 10:55 AM
Feb 17, 2014 11:50 AM

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It isn't quite "budget be damned" but if I have to have it, I have to have it. I have decided not to buy a show because I think it is too expensive for what it is, for the bonuses it contains but not because I am already buying too many shows.

I bought 7 full length shows last fall 2012 (plus some shorts) which was CRAZY silly and too much but... I had to have them so I got them. If money had really been no object and I bought everything I even remotely liked then I could have bought a TON of shows in fall 2012, I think that has to be one of my favorite seasons ever. Winter 2013 was second, I bought 6 shows, another absolutely wonderful season IMO.

I buy it right away; if it's a must buy show then it's a must buy NOW show for me. If I'm not sure I need it, if I don't get excited about getting it right away then it is likely that I'll never buy it.

I only bought 4 shows (still buying) from fall 2013 but that is still actually a good season for me. Before the crazy fall 2012 season I tended to just buy 2 series per season but again that's just because that was the number that was so good I had to have them.

So perhaps this is just a return to normalcy for me but I sure wish there were as many amazing shows now as there were a year ago.
Feb 17, 2014 12:51 PM
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Hahalollawl said:
Anyways, I still think enticing people into buying merchandise/discs in this age of digital media and the internet is a thorny issue. Fortunately for them, Japan seems to perhaps have a stronger attachment to physical media (you can check out this cnn article on cds in Japan http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/19/news/japan-cd-music/) than some other countries.


We have to be careful with that kind of data. While it's true that in comparison to digital sales, physical media holds up well, the industry's ability to monetize is in rapid decline.

Essentially, the market for CDs continues to shrink (and to some extent, it has always been a collector's market, with the masses renting or borrowing instead of buying), but at the same time, they've been unable to compensate through digital distribution. That's a difference from North America or Europe, where the masses are already used to buying music at a relatively low cost.

taj69 said:
The otaku model is outdated now, the industry for better or for worst has already been saved and is pretty much commercialized now. Dvd's don't even tell how much real profit is netted. Pretty much anything that is even remotely popular or profitable in other mediums gets shipped to anime now since it's much easier to make money.


That's only true for OADs and five minute anime. The industry relies heavily on DVD/BD distributors (often the leading investor) for financing, and those companies depend on home video sales.

If home video were to die overnight, we'd see a massive reduction in full-length anime.
Feb 17, 2014 1:17 PM
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May 2013
760
Hmmm, perhaps I could have worded that differently. I meant no offense, I guess it was sort of a playful (and perhaps a bit jealous...) jab at you guys. Though perhaps I shouldn't be making fun of people who are supporting the industry...

It's not that you guys have unlimited funds and buy everything. But on the other hand, (correct me if I'm wrong) you guys don't seem to go into every season thinking "Okay, I'm only going to buy 2-3 series this season so I have to narrow it down to my top 2-3 favorites" or with some kind of specific quota. Rather, you seem to go in thinking something more along the lines of "Let's see how good the shows are this season and maybe that will influence how many I buy".

I guess I have interest in the budget aspect (obviously it differs from person to person, but in a general sense as to how the majority of buyers think) as it leads to the question, can we blame poor sales for some anime on poor timing? I guess it would be a wrong place, wrong time sort of thing. As in, perhaps a show was just in a particularly competitive season and did poorly because of its competition? Fall 2012 would be an example, as hpulley mentioned (heck of a season by the way. PP, ZnT, SSY, etc.). Take Shinsekai Yori for example. If not everyone can afford to buy 7 shows, would it make sense to put some of the blame (not all of course) for its low disc sales on it being in a very competitive season (I agree that Fall 2012 seems to have had a lot of shows that I think many would agree were high quality)? Or Zetsuen no Tempest perhaps?

Or is this just a foolish attempt by me to rationalize poor sales for some shows?
HahalollawlFeb 17, 2014 1:20 PM
Feb 17, 2014 1:30 PM
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Jul 2013
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Hahalollawl said:

I guess I have interest in the budget aspect (obviously it differs from person to person, but in a general sense as to how the majority of buyers think) as it leads to the question, can we blame poor sales for some anime on poor timing? I guess it would be a wrong place, wrong time sort of thing. As in, perhaps a show was just in a particularly competitive season and did poorly because of its competition? Fall 2012 would be an example, as hpulley mentioned (heck of a season by the way. PP, ZnT, SSY, etc.). Take Shinsekai Yori for example. If not everyone can afford to buy 7 shows, would it make sense to put some of the blame (not all of course) for its low disc sales on it being in a very competitive season (I agree that Fall 2012 seems to have had a lot of shows that I think many would agree were high quality)? Or Zetsuen no Tempest perhaps?

Or is this just a foolish attempt by me to rationalize poor sales for some shows?


Timing is definitely a factor. However, some shows are less likely to become hits because the genre, themes, or even artwork fail to entice prospective buyers. Where big flops are concerned, there's a good chance that they would fail regardless of competition.
Feb 17, 2014 3:12 PM

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3948
Timing can be a factor.

Two Nobunaga shows right now with characters from history... bad idea though it looks like neither one is stealing sales from anything.

Wizard Barristers, Magical Warfare, Witch Craft Works while Tokyo Ravens is still running? Not a great idea. Looks like WCW is going to win that one.

Wake Up Girls! seems rushed but better to run it now than while LoveLive! or IdolM@ster are on...
Feb 17, 2014 3:23 PM

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The thing about timing is that, while it's definitely plausible and almost certainly a factor, any kind of convincing test would be difficult to do. Each individual 30-show season is a small sample by itself, prone to variances in quality and advertising. Too, they're potentially affected by penny-pinching anticipation for seasons after it and budget crunch caused by seasons before it in a rolling fashion (or lack thereof, in both cases). There are too many cases of big hits coming out in otherwise strong seasons and relatively few hits coming out in otherwise weak seasons for timing to be a particularly dominant factor.

That we're looking right now at a very weak winter on the heels of a fairly weak fall would be an argument against the specific notion of series getting a breakout chance in a weak season - to me, that suggests that what happens when there's no killer series is that people just buy less. It might be more relevant as a limiting factor for hits in seasons with several of them (Angel Beats versus K-on s2 in Spring 2010, possibly) rather than none of them, but at that point quality probably plays at least as big a role.
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Feb 17, 2014 4:03 PM

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jmal said:
But yes if, say, most people buy 2 shows and a certain show tends to be most people's #3, then yeah it could lose out. But that would require a pretty huge set of coincidences, especially if we try to rationalize sales as low as SSY's or Zetsuten's using it. Pretty sure that if a title were really that broadly popular you'd see it reflected in fanart, doujinshi, and other free or less expensive expressions of fandom.


I wouldn't necessarily agree with that point. Zetsuten's manga specifically got a decent-sized bump from the anime, as did Btoom and Kamisama Kiss from that fall. There have been a decent number of other fairly recent cases (Chihayafuru, Kimi to Boku, Kamisama Dolls) where manga sales went significantly up without a disc-selling anime. The low-budget fans who buy manga and the higher-budget fans who buy anime don't always seem to overlap. That, or there actually is semi-substantial evidence that some series could shut out by strong competition.

The same assertion might be more valid for LNs, where the overlap is stronger and the correlations of LN sales->anime sales->LN sales bump is comparatively tight.
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Feb 17, 2014 10:21 PM
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Hahalollawl said:
Finally, how much stock do we put into the "people have a limited budget" theory? I was under the impression that the more serious fans buy shows fairly early on (whether or not I think that's a good idea...) and that the NagiAsu boost (can we make that a thing like the Manabi Line? pretty please?) was a rare sight.


There seems to be a change in otaku buying pattern recently, series like Knk/Kill La Kill/Non Non Biyori/(to a lesser extent)Arpeggio spent much of fall season outside of top 100 and shot up closer to release. The otakus no longer seem to believe in preordering months in advance. Think WCW will probably sell extremely well, it's doing better than Arpeggio did at the same episode last season and I won't be surprise to see it outsell Arpeggio.
Feb 17, 2014 11:26 PM

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Jun 2007
1478
jmal said:
If you sell under 2k, not to mention under 1k, that goes well beyond just having some rough competition. Something else would be a better explanation.


That's true for shows deep below 3k, but what about the ones right below it? Sakurasou and Kamisama Kiss both picked up substantial boosts in source material and were right below 3k in averages. Getting an extra 1k in average disc sales would have shifted their odds of their getting a sequel by quite a bit. I'm not big on finagling failed series into relevance in general, but there are definitely cases of low-cost-success high-cost-borderline status out there where the marginal effect of losing a couple hundred buyers can be argued to have made a difference.

scytheavatar said:
There seems to be a change in otaku buying pattern recently, series like Knk/Kill La Kill/Non Non Biyori/(to a lesser extent)Arpeggio spent much of fall season outside of top 100 and shot up closer to release. The otakus no longer seem to believe in preordering months in advance. Think WCW will probably sell extremely well, it's doing better than Arpeggio did at the same episode last season and I won't be surprise to see it outsell Arpeggio.


I'm still skeptical of whether that's a permanent change in buying patterns or beliefs. Stalker data from the last sub-20k season would help validate this one way or the other, but I think it's reasonable to suggest the alternate explanation that the reason shows got those late boosts was because the people who normally buy anime had more of their limited budgets free than normal because no home run series took it from them early on.

Either way, that's still probably good for WCW, seeing as this season is taking place in similar conditions.
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