do you believe in near term human extinction or NTHE?

The way you worded this reminds me of stuff from Fate anime. heh

It'll happen in summer. Trust the plan.

Sounds unreasonable so no I do not believe in it.

No, near term human extinction is most certainly gonna happen...and it will most likely happen much sooner than (almost) anyone could have anticipated. The rising police state survelliance aka NSA's PRISM Project is proof of NTHE...because the governments are trying to imprison as many people as possible to desperately delay NTHE for a few extra years. Which will ultimately be futile because when NTHE inevitably arrives, nobody will survive it. Including those good-for-nothing, ruling-class "elites".

@DesuMaiden: Can you name me a scenario where all of humanity perishes? Even if the major superpowers have the biggest possible nuclear attack imaginable there will be some people in some jungle who will remain unaffected.

The same is true for even the worst case scenarios of runaway global warming/resource depletion. There will be some region somewhere in the world that is livable and isolated enough not to get caught up in the calamity in question. Sure, there are scenarios where the human population takes a battering but it is another kettle of fish to see humanity being wiped out completely.

If you don't believe that NTHE will happen, this article will prove otherwise...

https://web.archive.org/web/20220524111716/https://dieoff.com/page137.htm

This following paragraph totally nails it...

""Or it may prove impossible for even a few survivors to subsist on the meager resources left in civilization's wake. The children of the highly technological society into which more and more of the world's peoples are being drawn will not know how to support themselves by hunting and gathering or by simple agriculture. In addition, the wealth of wild animals that once sustained hunting societies will be gone, and topsoil that has been spoiled by tractors will yield poorly to the hoe. A species that has come to depend on complex technologies to mediate its relationship with the environment may not long survive their loss."""

The end of humans...coming very soon...

@DesuMaiden: I have had lengthy debates about this sort of thing in the past and whilst I can see some merit in the argument of a population bottleneck I can't see this resulting in the death of humanity. People are literally everywhere in the world. There will be sufficient survivors to carry things on especially if the collapse is not a flash crash.

The article you linked to is an interesting one. I have read things similar to this in the past and even was part of a forum that made this the focus of discussions. I could go on and on about this topic actually but well I don't think this is a subject that would interest many people on MAL.

@DesuMaiden: I have had lengthy debates about this sort of thing in the past and whilst I can see some merit in the argument of a population bottleneck I can't see this resulting in the death of humanity. People are literally everywhere in the world. There will be sufficient survivors to carry things on especially if the collapse is not a flash crash.

The article you linked to is an interesting one. I have read things similar to this in the past and even was part of a forum that made this the focus of discussions. I could go on and on about this topic actually but well I don't think this is a subject that would interest many people on MAL.

@monsta666
Anything that can wipe out either all life or at least all surface life will wipe out people too which there is a few scenarios for this including massive volcanic eruption and a very large nuclear strike or multiple nuclear strikes globally (which is possible because these systems sometimes are automated to attack). You also need a certain size of population or at least they all have no bad genes to avoid problems inbreeding.

Stuff like big volcanic eruptions, massive asteroids or other natural events are things I don't consider happening in the near-term future i.e. the next few hundred years. I don't believe nuclear warfare would wipe all of humanity either. There will be people who will avoid the fallout of the blasts and the theory behind nuclear winter is based on weak science that I don't subscribe too. The human bottleneck, I feel, will contain enough breeding pairs to prevent an extinction level event in the nuclear war scenario.

Again never say never but highly unlikely.

I can see long-term scenarios where humans go extinct though. In about one billion years time the luminosity of the Sun would have increased by 10%. This will lead to an average world temperature of just under 50C (127F). More importantly this will likely lead to water rising up to our atmosphere resulting in a "moist" greenhouse effect. It is likely that there would be runaway global warming which would eventually lead us to the same fate as Venus. I don't see humans surviving this unless we left planet Earth. But a billion years is not exactly near-term...

2nd part is a popular misconception, no military would ever launch their nuclear weapons at lowly populated rural areas just to kill a few country people, worst case scenario would be the destruction of cities and breakdown of modern civilization, but there would always be a few survivors.

@monsta666
Yellowstone in the US and Campi Flegrei in Italy have supervolcanos both have shown signs they could erupt. The problem isnt simply cooling the problem is plants need light to live and other animals rely on those plants.

Im not sure what the minimum required population size is setting aside random chance of getting all good genes. That is hard to figure out since after enough generations mutations occur which can be good or bad mutations.

@monsta666
Yellowstone in the US and Campi Flegrei in Italy have supervolcanos both have shown signs they could erupt. The problem isnt simply cooling the problem is plants need light to live and other animals rely on those plants.

Im not sure what the minimum required population size is setting aside random chance of getting all good genes. That is hard to figure out since after enough generations mutations occur which can be good or bad mutations.

@LenRea NTHE is obviously gonna happen, bro. I wonder why the OP made this thread btw???

A lot of people actually if you extrapolate from the reasons why people are not having children today:



https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/03/millennials-only-children/

Out of those 2.1% of people who do not want to have children in fear of global warming, I believe that it is reasonable to think that a significant part of them believe that the extinction of humanity is near. In lack of a proper statistical study on this exact question, it is difficult to estimate how widespread this belief has become though.

It will most certainly happen. There is no doubt in my mind that NTHE will happen. This is why I don't take our society seriously. It is all just one big farce. Industrial civilization is all just a big farce...

So who cares if you are rich and famous? It is all pointless when there won't be anymore humans on this planet in the relatively near future.

I am sick and tired of those fools denying the reality of NTHE...the evidence for NTHE is overwhelming. What kind of groundbreaking tech is being invented these days? Almost nothing, except for "smart"phones...which actually really, really suck.

And now, the governments are trying to remove all privacy online, in a last desperate attempt to control the masses via a survelliance police state...this desperation is because they know that NTHE is quickly arriving. So the governments are trying to enslaves the masses to delay NTHE for a few extra years.