Kaioshin_Sama said: Progeusz said: Kaioshin_Sama said: Says the Sunrise fan in a season which will undoubtedly be ruled by Sunrise show.Just something that's not a cute girls doing cute things, Kyoani and/or Shaft show as the top seller of a season. I'll tip my glass to that at the very least with the rest of you cause god knows when it'll ever happen again. Doesn't that Mekaku City Actors show have a massive fanbase looking to buy discounted discs? My moneys on that one though it has a lot of catching up to do obviously. At this point theres very very little chance it comes close to the 40k Love Live will likely put up. |
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Spring 2014 - Love Live 2 or JoJo(probably) Winter 2014 - Hoozuki Autumn 2013 - Kuroko no Basket 2 Summer 2013 - Monogatari(shaft) Spring 2013 - Shingeki no Kyojin Winter 2013 - Love Live Autumn 2012 - Girls und Panzer Summer 2012 - Sword Art Online Spring 2012 - Fate/zero II Winter 2012 - Nisemonogatari(shaft) Autumn 2011 - Fate/Zero Summer 2011 - The iDOLM@STER Spring 2011 - Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae wo Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai Winter 2011 - Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica(shaft) Autumn 2010 - Ore no Imouto Summer 2010 - Strike Witches 2 Spring 2010 - K-ON!!(Kyoani/CGDCT) Winter 2010 - Durarara!! After seeing this chart I don't even know why people have to reply to Kaioshin's rant every week. Besides Madoka and Monogatari there is no topseller from Shaft here, same with KyoAni which last top seller is K-ON, though I believe Free is a good seller just not the biggest hit in that season. All I can say is that the top ranking is fairly distributed to different studios, that's all. By the way is "Gurls and Panzer" not considered CGDCT? |
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Ghostalker said: Spring 2014 - Love Live 2 or JoJo(probably) Winter 2014 - Hoozuki Autumn 2013 - Kuroko no Basket 2 Summer 2013 - Monogatari(shaft) Spring 2013 - Shingeki no Kyojin Winter 2013 - Love Live Autumn 2012 - Girls und Panzer Summer 2012 - Sword Art Online Spring 2012 - Fate/zero II Winter 2012 - Nisemonogatari(shaft) Autumn 2011 - Fate/Zero Summer 2011 - The iDOLM@STER Spring 2011 - Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae wo Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai Winter 2011 - Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica(shaft) Autumn 2010 - Ore no Imouto Summer 2010 - Strike Witches 2 Spring 2010 - K-ON!!(Kyoani/CGDCT) Winter 2010 - Durarara!! After seeing this chart I don't even know why people have to reply to Kaioshin's rant every week. Besides Madoka and Monogatari there is no topseller from Shaft here, same with KyoAni which last top seller is K-ON, though I believe Free is a good seller just not the biggest hit in that season. All I can say is that the top ranking is fairly distributed to different studios, that's all. By the way is "Gurls and Panzer" not considered CGDCT? I don't know why people have to reply to Kaioshin at all. Nothing good comes from talking to that guy. |
| The only True Ending is the Harem Ending. |
Ghostalker said: Cute Girls Driving Classic Tanks, yes it is!... By the way is "Gurls and Panzer" not considered CGDCT? |
Kaioshin_Sama said: It has massive fanbase wishing its parents would give them cash to spend on the show. Or massive fanbase which was disappointed by the adaptation. Maybe mix of both. Anyway, I'll be surprised if it sells 10k looking at how it's doing right now.Doesn't that Mekaku City Actors show have a massive fanbase looking to buy discounted discs? My moneys on that one though it has a lot of catching up to do obviously. And the discs aren't discounted that much, ¥6,4k for two episodes is pretty normal price. Ghostalker said: It's more of a sports show. When it comes to appeal, tanks are more important than girls. People started appreciating cuteness of girls only AFTER the show earned their love. [edit]Because design-wise, they're average at best.[/edit] But now, when it's over, the characters are mentioned the most so it might give one a false idea.By the way is "Gurls and Panzer" not considered CGDCT? cgdct should stay where it was created. In cgdct form, CAPS is kinda obnoxious. |
ProgeuszApr 15, 2014 10:09 AM
rederoin said: Ckan said: Well, this talk is interesting. I don't suppose anyone has the top selling shows of the last few season all on a nice little spreadsheet somewhere. Jmal does have one. http://www.someanithing.com/?page_id=2 I looked at his site, and in the last 4.5 years, shaft topped the season 3 times, and kyoani once. That's....really really surprising. Maybe I was confusing my best selling by year stats with best selling by season. |
Kaioshin_Sama said: Probably. Shaft has two huge hits (Monogatari and Madoka) some successful shows (SZS, Denpa, Hidamari) and bunch of low sellers. KyoAni has solid/great sellers with some average shows but only K-ON! and Haruhi went above 30k.That's....really really surprising. Maybe I was confusing my best selling by year stats with best selling by season. |
| Happy to see Noragami up there. Hopefully the rest sells well and we get a second season. |
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| Madoka <3. Tha's all I have to say. |
| Noragami is doing good so when are they gonna announce the second season. I hope it's soon. |
| And Sunrise's Love Live has 7 volumes for 13 episodes, big deal. |
RyanSaotome said: At this point theres very very little chance it comes close to the 40k Love Live will likely put up. 40k? I'm afraid that K-on level is the low estimate at this point. Do you know that feeling before the storm coming, where the air is sucked out in favor of moisturized water making it hard to breath, that feeling of hollow where you know nothing else matter at this point, all the flimsy rain can't be compared with upcoming storm? This is how anticipation of Love Live's sale feel like in Akihabara. Every several weeks, there's a Love Live's franchise & sponsor events. Every couple months, stores in Akiba dedicate special section for each µ's member's birthday. Lines of people wait outside of Pizza chain, maid cafe, convenient stores just to participate in LL's special events. People decorate their cars with LL's color, and professional race team puts picture of the girls on their favorite GT. The LL's smartphone game with just hit 2 millions players last month, even more than Kancolle which is expected to be one of the best sellers this year. That's the general atmosphere, let's talk about the number. Love Live has a treasure trope of indicators that leaves the analyst spirit in me jumping with joy. Here is the data of previous sale from the franchise: That shows the tremendous affect that S1 brought to this lovely and sleepy little franchise. Focusing on the numbers here are some important observations: - The number of music CD sales during the anime airing or related to the anime content stays closely with the anime's average sale at the time. That means these original fans of the anime are very loyal and they bought all the content it released. - The number of music CD sales after the anime and unrelated to its content is lower, but stays very healthy above 20K. That means the franchise takes hold on people's mind. These loyal fans will follow the franchise to the end, and they form a core fanbase of happy consumers that maintains any important content of the franchise staying above 20K mark. - The two red colored number tell us what can be expected from S2's average: 1) That 51K+ number is for the OVA, the first animated content after the anime. OVA's has almost always sold less than the average of the show itself. It's usually due to the fact that the fanbase often declines after the anime, or that not a lot of people are willing to pay for contents unrelated to the story. The 51K+ number from Love Live shows the complete opposite, meaning that the fanbase has grown tremendously after the anime. If we extrapolate our assumption that OVA always sells less than the anime's average, LL S2 will have the minimum average of 50K. 2) That 76K+ is for the newest µ's single, "Takaramonos/Paradise Live" (it will soon be 80K next week). its strong performance is probably closely related to the popularity of the smartphone game (one of the songs is the opening theme for the game). However, if we also extrapolate the previous assumption that the core fanbase buy the CDs, and we assume that core fanbase is now 80K strong, the S2 anime will have an optimistic prediction of 80K average. Love Live 2's first volume is irresistible because it has: - 1 original song - Event ticket for first reservation of next year's concert - DLC bonus for the upcoming Vita game - Extra points for the smartphone game The event ticket is absolutely huge in this case because there's another series that saw this huge jump, UtaPri. Event ticket had made UtaPri from an 18K+ average S1 seller to a 60K+ S2 vol 1 seller, a 300% increase! UtaPri is probably the most compatible to Love Live, except now the gender switches from female to male. We all know the buying power of male otaku is still much higher than female otaku. Thus, there is a reasonable expectation that vol 1 of Love Live will sell 3 times as much as its S1's average, which is 30K. This means we can expect vol 1 to sell 90K! Those are my prediction based on several reference points, how's about actual happening? Here are some major points that we know. - Love live has dwarfed Madoka BD since it was first put on preorder. That includes the entire 3 days before Madoka's first week release and its whole second week release. Madoka sold 12K+ LE BD this week, that means LL2 Vol1 has been preordered much higher. Stalker points have been massively underestimate in this case. Amazon even announced on their twitter that "Love Live preorder is earth shattering" https://twitter.com/AmazonJP/status/453830967266795520/photo/1. My prediction is that vol 1 has no less than 20K preorder at this point. - Love Live will once again be storefront heavy, putting Stalker's estimation even less reliable. This is due to the fact that people get different bonuses when they buy from stores other than Amazon. This sure enough created an absolute domination in Akiba: http://blog-imgs-64.fc2.com/y/a/r/yaraon/2_20140410150309bc7.jpg (From Sofmap to Gamers to Animate to HMV, seven vols of Love Live dominated the first day. Vol1 still dominates all the stores now) http://blog-imgs-64.fc2.com/y/a/r/yaraon/oo_20140415193758649.jpg (This guy bought 55 copies of vol1) http://blog-imgs-64.fc2.com/y/a/r/yaraon/BlKsmboCEAAGGwZ_20140415143714f52.png (Here is the picture at Sofmap) Amazon just announced a 25% off on all Love Live's volumes. This might lure many people to switch back to Amazon. Nonetheless, LL's domination on storefront will continue; and Stalker number will continue to greatly underestimate first volume sale. This is an exciting time to follow sales. We are maybe looking at the record-breaking anime sale as it happens. People are throwing around the term "Bakemonotagari killer," and I think Love Live does have a chance to dethrone Bake just as SnK had that chance last year. Everything is dependent on the anime's performance though. Japanese will not buy if they don't like the anime, period, no matter how much effort we put into slicing the numbers. In an unlucky scenario, if Love Live 2 turns into an anime about cute girls drinking tea and talking about cute girls things, or does a blunder on its drama, I think it would still sell at 40K average. |
ThangLongApr 15, 2014 12:37 PM
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ThangLong said: Now that's some serious sales hype. Informative too.RyanSaotome said: At this point theres very very little chance it comes close to the 40k Love Live will likely put up. 40k? I'm afraid that K-on level is the low estimate at this point. |
ThangLong said: Excuse me, what are you smoking?OVA's has almost always sold less than the average of the show itself. ThangLong said: Seriously, where can I get this stuff?extrapolate the previous assumption that the core fanbase buy the CDs, and we assume that core fanbase is now 80K strong, the S2 anime will have an optimistic prediction of 80K average ThangLong said: I'm dying to know at this point.Event ticket had made UtaPri from an 18K+ average S1 seller to a 60K+ S2 vol 1 seller Okay, now that we've established you're high let's try to calmly talk some sense into you. ThangLong said: v1 has been higher for past nine days, other volumes were higher for at most 30 hours. You should also remember that Love Live 2 in its entirety has been competing vs SECOND and THIRD week of Madoka's BD. Second week was 12.5k. Love Live's BD buying fanbase is ~30k as S1 tells. LL2 is a sequel so most of the buying occurs immediately after solicitation. Nothing surprising.Love live has dwarfed Madoka BD since it was first put on preorder If you want to use words such as "dwarfed" you should compare similar periods. LL2 was #1 for consecutive 48 hours. 79 if you ignore the slip after 48 hours. It fell to #4 after just four days. Madoka was #1 for consecutive 255 hours. It fell out of top3 for the first time after two weeks. Last days generally looked like: Three concerts above LL > 1/7th of LL > two more concerts > Madoka > everything else including 6/7th of LL. Wow. Such dwarfing! Halflinging! ThangLong said: I watched my Rebellion BD three days before LL2 was solicited on April 7th. So not really.That includes the entire 3 days before Madoka's first week release ThangLong said: Oh. So your 90k suddenly becomes less than 2k of actual buyers? :)(This guy bought 55 copies of vol1) ThangLong said: 26% is norm on amazon.Amazon just announced a 25% off on all Love Live's volumes ThangLong said: That's not how it works. The more show dominates the amazon, the higher estimate of store-front effect is (stalker does takes it into account). Underestimation can occur only in two cases:Nonetheless, LL's domination on storefront will continue; and Stalker number will continue to greatly underestimate first volume sale. 1) When show gets more orders than stalkers placings allow (2.4k/day for#1), see Madoka or Eva 2) When show dominates other stores much more than amazon so the offset in stalker's prediction formula is not big enough. Sure, LL qualifies for both (or did for few days in case of 1)) but I had to interrupt so that no one would get the wrong idea. Also, if LL's domination at other stores wanes with time, the stalker's formula might "catch up" and the underestimation will be smaller or not occur at all. To be honest I don't really believe it will happen but the possibility is there. edit: I worded 2) badly. When I said "dominating" I meant amount of orders, not rank. They often go together but sometimes you can get #1 at stores with low amount of orders if competition is weak. On amazon the competition is always strong, so there's less problem there. That's why estimating store-front effect is so hard. Not to mention we don't know exact formula at different stores or even have general idea about it. For example on amazon "hourly update" isn't entirely true as something which was at #1 at hour x and sold ZERO copies at hour x+1 would still be very close to #1. It would be very close to #1 even after 20 hours of zero copies bought, as proved by Sonico v1 which quickly went out of stock but stayed near the top. We don't know how strong this effect is at different stores of it is there at all. |
ProgeuszApr 15, 2014 1:40 PM
Xinception said: You mean 80k? I know I was wrong about SnK vs Monogatari but LL is a little different type of show and I will say: no way in hell.@Progeusz There is still a high chance of Love Live reaching ThangLong's standards though. 40k? Definitely possible. edit: sorry, typo 90->80 |
ProgeuszApr 15, 2014 1:49 PM
| 55 copies of Love Live 2 vol 1? Dear god. Why didn't the guy get 2-3 full sets of volumes instead. |
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| My point is that you shouldn't accuse Shaft of milking. 1) Monogatari isn't the only show for which what you described previously happens. 2) What you're talking about is completely unrelated to Shaft. Aniplex makes the decisions. No, we weren't on the topic of Shaft specifically. We were discussing anime in general with a bit more focus given to both KyoAni and Shaft. By singling out Shaft in your Monogatari example you're implying that it isn't the case for other studios ar at least isn't for KyoAni. Meanwhile, KyoAni is the worst offender with their Nichijou. Or, to avoid spreading misunderstandings, Kadokawa is because they're Nichijou's publisher. >If you're very wealthy and can afford it either way then maybe it's not a big deal to you. In theoretical debates like this I NEVER use my situation as an example to extrapolate from. Using anecdotal evidence as argument is faulty practice and I'm always against it. |
| Love Live's CD sales are great, but sales numbers of lower-cost goods almost never match up 1-to-1 to full-season anime disk sales. The only series I can think of where that might have happened was Mouretsu Pirates, which was considerably less popular than LL in general (novels never ranked in some 5k threshold weeks, anime averaged about ~7k). Other than that, though, it's far, far more common for sales to follow a standard demand curve and drop off as the price (per unit of release time) of franchise-related goods rises. Also, UtaPri ended up with only a 34k average after all was said and done, a little less than double the original sales. The vast majority of sequels that directly continue the story of the first season (excluding reboots/spinoffs, of which LL2 is not one) experience either the same sales or a moderate drop-off, so color me a skeptic. That said, it's still way up in the air right now and I have zero intention of trying to call the number. |
| Shameless Blog Plugging: animetics.net |
| This week alone I've heard not Mekaku and Love Live mentioned as possible 100K average volume sellers with some on 2ch apparently expecting it to top Eva's TV volume average. I don't know what to believe anymore but there sure is a lot of sales hype this season. @hahalollawl: As much as I loathe Shaft I don't think they even get to make the call on how the packaging and marketing is handled for their shows. That's the publisher and their main sponsor at the moment Aniplexs call. I definitely agree that there's seems to be an unusually large amount of greed at play with how they are handling Shafts recent marketability though. I mean has anyone ever heard of 12 one episode volumes before? As for 24 episode series isn't 9 volumes typically the norm? Furthermore since 2012 Monogatari has been an almost omnipresent franchise with a new entry what seems like every other season be it one arc or a full length series and there's even yet another one this season. I'd swear there's almost been more "new" Monogatari series than there have Gundam in the last 5 years and new Gundam shows are pretty common. I don't know it definitely looks like they're stretching it out now so that there's always at least one Monogatari volume on sale at Amazon at any given time and it wouldn't shock me if a new season is announced to go on sale as the arc that's supposed to air this spring is about to be released (Winter?). Personally I don't understand the point of turning collecting these shows into some kind of marathon for the fans either and will be curious to see how much the new Monogatari series is split up. I mean they wouldn't dare do 5 volumes would they? Even 3 would look pretty greedy. |
PeacingOutApr 15, 2014 2:27 PM
Progeusz said: ThangLong said: Excuse me, what are you smoking?OVA's has almost always sold less than the average of the show itself. ThangLong said: Seriously, where can I get this stuff?extrapolate the previous assumption that the core fanbase buy the CDs, and we assume that core fanbase is now 80K strong, the S2 anime will have an optimistic prediction of 80K average ThangLong said: I'm dying to know at this point.Event ticket had made UtaPri from an 18K+ average S1 seller to a 60K+ S2 vol 1 seller Okay, now that we've established you're high let's try to calmly talk some sense into you. Sarcastic remark does not show your skill at analyzing. Here is UtaPrince S2 Vol1 first week sale: http://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=624685. It reached 54K first week and went on to have more than 60K. ThangLong said: v1 has been higher for past nine days, other volumes were higher for at most 30 hours. You should also remember that Love Live 2 in its entirety has been competing vs SECOND and THIRD week of Madoka's BD. Second week was 12.5k. Love Live's BD buying fanbase is ~30k as S1 tells. LL2 is a sequel so most of the buying occurs immediately after solicitation. Nothing surprising. If you want to use words such as "dwarfed" you should compare similar periods.Love live has dwarfed Madoka BD since it was first put on preorder LL2 was #1 for consecutive 48 hours. 79 if you ignore the slip after 48 hours. It fell to #4 after just four days. You should read my post more carefully, I did not imply that Love Live won over a 100K+ seller in its entire run. I'm comparing them in one specific period, which is from the time Love Live vol1 was put on preorder. It has dwarfed Madoka's running preorder rate the entire time it's on Amazon. Madoka was #1 for consecutive 255 hours. It fell out of top3 for the first time after two weeks. Last days generally looked like: Three concerts above LL > 1/7th of LL > two more concerts > Madoka > everything else including 6/7th of LL. Wow. Such dwarfing! Halflinging! The reason you misunderstood my point was that you jumped with your assumption too quickly when Madoka is involved. Am I saying LL was preordered in almost two week outsold Madoka's 146K+ number? You stop thinking after the word "dwarfed" and stuck there. ThangLong said: I watched my Rebellion BD three days before LL2 was solicited on April 7th. So not really.That includes the entire 3 days before Madoka's first week release Ok, that was my fault. I should have said two days before we knew about Madoka's first number on Apr 8th. ThangLong said: Oh. So your 90k suddenly becomes less than 2k of actual buyers? :)(This guy bought 55 copies of vol1) Am I in the sale fight with you? This is not 4chan. We don't compare the series popularity based on sale here. We only focus on the hard sale number. People should bring fanbase war somewhere else. That said, people have a lot of reasons to buy in bulk. He can certainly take apart all the extras, and resell them separately for the people who need them. Japanese are not mindless fans like people believe. Love Live's material are hot demands. For example, this one: Here are the weekly Blu-ray & CD rankings for April 7th - 13th is out of stock everywhere and people are jacking up 40% the original price on Amazon.92. **,850 *15,575 Love Live! Solo Live! collection Memorial Box II by μ's. ThangLong said: 26% is norm on amazon.Amazon just announced a 25% off on all Love Live's volumes What is your point here? I know it's the norm. ThangLong said: That's not how it works. The more show dominates the amazon, the higher estimate of store-front effect is (stalker does takes it into account). Underestimation can occur only in two cases:Nonetheless, LL's domination on storefront will continue; and Stalker number will continue to greatly underestimate first volume sale. 1) When show gets more orders than stalkers placings allow (2.4k/day for#1), see Madoka or Eva 2) When show dominates other stores much more than amazon so the offset in stalker's prediction formula is not big enough. Sure, LL qualifies for both (or did for few days in case of 1)) but I had to interrupt so that no one would get the wrong idea. Also, if LL's domination at other stores wanes with time, the stalker's formula might "catch up" and the underestimation will be smaller or not occur at all. To be honest I don't really believe it will happen but the possibility is there. Stalker is extremely bad at predicting top sellers. Their formula, with their Nico deduction, is reliable when there are series above to compare to. Top sellers break their calculation. We know for a fact that Love Live was preordered more than the current 13K+ points on Stalker. You asked why? Go read my first post again. Not you or I know how Stalker works. |
ThangLongApr 15, 2014 2:21 PM
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| I can't see Love Live hitting 80, 90, or 100K+. I can see 20k easy with 50k being very likely. |
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Progeusz said: Xinception said: You mean 80k? I know I was wrong about SnK vs Monogatari but LL is a little different type of show and I will say: no way in hell.@Progeusz There is still a high chance of Love Live reaching ThangLong's standards though. 40k? Definitely possible. edit: sorry, typo 90->80 Hoppy said: I can't see Love Live hitting 80, 90, or 100K+. I can see 20k easy with 50k being very likely. You two should read the text again: - Prediction based on OVA's assumption: 50K - Prediction based on CD's sale: 80K (extremely optimistic, based on 2 assumptions) - Prediction for Vol1 sale based on comparison with Utapri 2 Vol1 sale with event ticket: 90K - Low prediction, based on unfortunate case: 40K |
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ThangLong said: Progeusz said: Xinception said: You mean 80k? I know I was wrong about SnK vs Monogatari but LL is a little different type of show and I will say: no way in hell.@Progeusz There is still a high chance of Love Live reaching ThangLong's standards though. 40k? Definitely possible. edit: sorry, typo 90->80 Hoppy said: I can't see Love Live hitting 80, 90, or 100K+. I can see 20k easy with 50k being very likely. You two should read the text again: - Prediction based on OVA's assumption: 50K - Prediction based on CD's sale: 80K (extremely optimistic, based on 2 assumptions) - Prediction for Vol1 sale based on comparison with Utapri 2 Vol1 sale with event ticket: 90K - Low prediction, based on unfortunate case: 40K The issue with most of these predictions save for the unfortunate case and OVA assumption is that they seem possible on paper, but most likely will never get close to the 80, 90, and 100k sales numbers that are being predicted. Love Live didn't even sell 80k last season. |
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Hoppy said: The issue with most of these predictions save for the unfortunate case and OVA assumption is that they seem possible on paper, but most likely will never get close to the 80, 90, and 100k sales numbers that are being predicted. Love Live didn't even sell 80k last season. Yes, I'm aware of that, but the numbers on paper give me a reason to get hype. I've been following this series for the longest time, collecting all relevant information. Everywhere I read, people are hyping about it. |
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| I need to see the Madoka film. |
Bum Bum Dum Dum |
ThangLong said: That' not the point. I'm not arguing the numbers, I'm arguing your statement that it was only because of event ticket.Sarcastic remark does not show your skill at analyzing. Here is UtaPrince S2 Vol1 first week sale: http://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=624685. It reached 54K first week and went on to have more than 60K. Also you ignored two other points. ThangLong said: You wrote it as if it was some amazing achievement while it was something everyone should expect. Actually, if LL DIDN'T overtake Madoka in this period it would mean a terrible drop for it. LL's position over past week doesn't indicate 80k in the slightest. It simply beat 12.5k seller. Even Nekomonogatari (55k) had much stronger start.You should read my post more carefully, I did not imply that Love Live won over a 100K+ seller in its entire run. I'm comparing them in one specific period, which is from the time Love Live vol1 was put on preorder. ThangLong said: No, it hasn't. First volume is above it while others not necessarily. That's it. You could talk about dwarfing if it remained at #1. But only if you specified you're talking about only v1 which you didn't.It has dwarfed Madoka's running preorder rate at the entire time. ThangLong said: Evangelion which sold 800k was also below LL v1 at that time! Whoa!It has dwarfed Madoka's running preorder rate at the entire time. Do you finally realize why this big point of yours is actually meaningless? You're comparing the very best of LL to Madoka's very weak period. LL was going at full speed while Madoka was slowing down already after reaching finishing line. However you only said "LL has dwarfed Madoka". ThangLong said: I didn't misunderstand your point at all. I pointed out that you're using words you don't understand and spreading misinformation that way.The reason you misunderstood my point ThangLong said: No, but you're implying that LL2 is doing much better than Madoka, even if you don't realize it. You also forgot to specify time periods in your first post.Am I saying LL was preordered in almost two week outsold Madoka's 146K+ number? ThangLong said: That was a joke. Very obvious one. But I see you got too riled up that someone dared to point out your bullshit and couldn't even notice the smiley. And no, I would never instigate fanbase wars. I'm usually the first one to stop others from doing so. How the hell did you even arrive at such conclusion? Yes, what you said in this paragraph indeed irritated me.Am I in the sale fight with you? This is not 4chan. (...) People should bring fanbase war somewhere else. ThangLong said: Good then. Your first post didn't leave that impression though. You specifically bolded it after all.What is your point here? I know it's the norm. ThangLong said: No. I simply pointed out your simplification. "You should read my post more carefully".You asked why? Go read my first post again. Hell, I even agreed that LL will be most likely underestimated. However what you said could be very misleading for people reading the thread so I felt the need to intervene. |
Progeusz said: ThangLong said: That' not the point. I'm not arguing the numbers, I'm arguing your statement that it was only because of event ticket.Sarcastic remark does not show your skill at analyzing. Here is UtaPrince S2 Vol1 first week sale: http://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=624685. It reached 54K first week and went on to have more than 60K. Show me where is that Utapri augment? You didn't write it there. Maybe it's because you were busy thinking about your sarcastic remark, which is entirely uncalled for. Also you ignored two other points. ThangLong said: You wrote it as if it was some amazing achievement while it was something everyone should expect. Actually, if LL DIDN'T overtake Madoka in this period it would mean a terrible drop for it. LL's position over past week doesn't indicate 80k in the slightest. It simply beat 12.5k seller. Even Nekomonogatari (55k) had much stronger start.You should read my post more carefully, I did not imply that Love Live won over a 100K+ seller in its entire run. I'm comparing them in one specific period, which is from the time Love Live vol1 was put on preorder. I bold your "as if" because that was your assumption reading my post. Do you know what beat LL Vol 1 for the first, second, and third place? Go read up on ARASHI and KANJANI before coming back here. ThangLong said: No, it hasn't. First volume is above it while others not necessarily. That's it. You could talk about dwarfing if it remained at #1. But only if you specified you're talking about only v1 which you didn't.It has dwarfed Madoka's running preorder rate at the entire time. You switched the topic to another point entirely. You knew what I was talking about. Every sale watcher knows we are only concern about Vol1 here. ThangLong said: Evangelion which sold 800k was also below LL v1 at that time! Whoa!It has dwarfed Madoka's running preorder rate at the entire time. Do you finally realize why this big point of yours is actually meaningless? You're comparing the very best of LL to Madoka's very weak period. LL was going at full speed while Madoka was slowing down already after reaching finishing line. However you only said "LL has dwarfed Madoka". ThangLong said: I didn't misunderstand your point at all. I pointed out that you're using words you don't understand and spreading misinformation that way.The reason you misunderstood my point ThangLong said: No, but you're implying that LL2 is doing much better than Madoka, even if you don't realize it. You also forgot to specify time periods in your first post.Am I saying LL was preordered in almost two week outsold Madoka's 146K+ number? What is this then? ThangLong said: Ok, I did mention the time period, you should read again. Again, I bold your assumption about me. You are also very condescending. I "understand" the words I'm talking about thank you very much. Love live has dwarfed Madoka BD since it was first put on preorder ThangLong said: That was a joke. Very obvious one. But I see you got too riled up that someone dared to point out your bullshit and couldn't even notice the smiley. And no, I would never instigate fanbase wars. I'm usually the first one to stop others from doing so. How the hell did you even arrive at such conclusion? Yes, what you said in this paragraph indeed irritated me.Am I in the sale fight with you? This is not 4chan. (...) People should bring fanbase war somewhere else. About that smiley face, it does not look like a joke at all. especially when you are writing the entire thing bashing my points. ThangLong said: Good then. Your first post didn't leave that impression though. You specifically bolded it after all.What is your point here? I know it's the norm. Another assumption on your part. ThangLong said: No. I simply pointed out your simplification. "You should read my post more carefully".You asked why? Go read my first post again. Hell, I even agreed that LL will be most likely underestimated. However what you said could be very misleading for people reading the thread so I felt the need to intervene. I said based on all the relevant data I can find. I said that was my prediction and assumption that lead to the conclusion. If you can't argue the data (not my prediction), stop. The users are not easily misled, you sound like you are assuming your position as their caretaker. I need to tell you that we are all learning from each other here. |
ThangLongApr 15, 2014 3:28 PM
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ThangLong said: You should read your own post again. More like:You two should read the text again: - Prediction based on OVA's assumption: 50K - Prediction based on CD's sale: 80K (extremely optimistic, based on 2 assumptions) - Prediction for Vol1 sale based on comparison with Utapri 2 Vol1 sale with event ticket: 90K - Low prediction, based on unfortunate case: 40K - Prediction based on OVA's assumption: minimum 50K (you specifically said "minimum") - Prediction based on CD's sale: up to 80K (optimistic (there was nothing in that paragraph justifying "extremely" here), based on 2 assumptions) - Low prediction, based on extremely ("extremely" is justified here because you even considered the show changing its theme) unfortunate case: 40K I see you started backpedaling already. Well, I'm fine with it, as long as you say something reasonable in the end, I don't press you to specifically admit that your first post went too far. ThangLong said: I qouted "Event ticket had made UtaPri from an 18K+ average S1 seller to a 60K+ S2 vol 1 seller" and with the use of sarcasm implied that it isn't true. The subject of quoted part is the even ticket. What's not to understand?Show me where is that Utapri augment? You didn't write it there. Maybe it's because you were busy thinking about your sarcastic remark, which is entirely uncalled for. Tags in your post broke up so I'll simply stop using them. >You switched the topic to another point entirely. You knew what I was talking about. Every sale watcher knows we are only concern about Vol1 here. No, I didn't know what you were talking about there because for most of the post you were talking about averages. My misunderstanding was justified because ALL volumes of LL2 were above Rebellion at some point. Even if we assume you were only talking about v1, "dwarfing" would still be a wrong term to use there. >Ok, I mentioned the time period, you should read again. You didn't mention Madoka's period. Notice I used "periods", it's plural. What you said could be understood in two ways. First, would be fair comparison, start vs start, I proved why it was wrong there. Second, which you apparently used, which would be very unfair comparison making the point meaningless. Either way what you said was either false or moot. Read your own posts first before instructing others to do so. >About that smiley face, it does not look like a joke at all. especially you are writing the entire thing bashing my points. The implication in my "90k suddenly becomes less than 2k" was so utterly ridiculous it simply couldn't be treated seriously. Or so I thought. Yes, I was bashing some of your points. Because I thought they deserved to be bashed. With others I disagreed. With last one I mostly agreed but wanted to elaborate. That doesn't change the fact that I like you overall and wanted to lighten the mood there. >Another assumption on your part. So why did you bold it? It was assumption on my part but I had clear reason to make it. >The users are not easily mislead Please, man, you're killing me. Vast majority of people have no idea about sales. Look at all the people shouting about 4k sellers being flops, not paying attention to thresholds, treating v1 sales as averages or ignoring source material boosts. If you're writing huge analysis post you should make sure it won't be misinterpreted. edit: When people with lesser knowledge see huge post written in coherent manner by someone who clearly knows a lot, has thousands of posts here and is a moderator, they'll simply believe everything said there without questioning it. And then they'll parrot what was said, sometimes accidentally changing the meaning by simplifying. And then we'll have bunch of people shouting about LL's sure 80k average which will enrage the others. And then, when actual average is below 40k (or around 50k if other vols get good extras), everyone will be mad. |
ProgeuszApr 15, 2014 3:45 PM
| Sure is angry fanboy in here now. |
PeacingOutApr 15, 2014 3:54 PM
Progeusz said: I see you started backpedaling already. Well, I'm fine with it, as long as you say something reasonable in the end, I don't press you to specifically admit that your first post went too far. Backtrack? Please, I used my assumption to lead to that 50K case.It is the minimum of that one case based on that one specific assumption. Where does it say that I declare Love Live to have 50K minimum? You need to read more analysis paper. ThangLong said: I qouted "Event ticket had made UtaPri from an 18K+ average S1 seller to a 60K+ S2 vol 1 seller" and with the use of sarcasm implied that it isn't true. The subject of quoted part is the even ticket. What's not to understand?Show me where is that Utapri augment? You didn't write it there. Maybe it's because you were busy thinking about your sarcastic remark, which is entirely uncalled for. Nope, no specification there. You don't explain anything but a single sarcasm post. You want users to be more informed? Talk about why, when, where. Maybe this is a lesson for people not to use sarcasm without thoughtful explanation. >You switched the topic to another point entirely. You knew what I was talking about. Every sale watcher knows we are only concern about Vol1 here. No, I didn't know what you were talking about there because for most of the post you were talking about averages. My misunderstanding was justified because ALL volumes of LL2 were above Rebellion at some point. Even if we assume you were only talking about v1, "dwarfing" would still be a wrong term to use there. Because you don't know that I have to explain it to you again. That's why you need to read people's post carefully, not jumping into conclusion and start bashing people about it. >Ok, I mentioned the time period, you should read again. You didn't mention Madoka's period. Notice I used "periods", it's plural. What you said could be understood in two ways. First, would be fair comparison, start vs start, I proved why it was wrong there. Second, which you apparently used, which would be very unfair comparison making the point meaningless. Either way what you said was either false or moot. Really? It clearly implies LL's period. Then you should ask yourself or me what I meant before saying I am wrong. Read your own posts first before instructing others to do so. >About that smiley face, it does not look like a joke at all. especially you are writing the entire thing bashing my points. The implication in my "90k suddenly becomes less than 2k" was so utterly ridiculous it simply couldn't be treated seriously. Or so I thought. Yes, I was bashing some of your points. Because I thought they deserved to be bashed. With others I disagreed. With last one I mostly agreed but wanted to elaborate. That doesn't change the fact that I like you overall and wanted to lighten the mood there. You said you like me, but you rubbed me the wrong way. This is my first time for a long time coming to sale thread, putting all my thoughts and data I have gathered. You jumped head first, without reading carefully, made assumption about my points without so much of a nice "can you elaborate?" question. Another assumption on your part. So why did you bold it? It was assumption on my part but I had clear reason to make it. I made it so people can count. You don't technically argue the number at all. You are arguing your assumptions about my post with me. >The users are not easily mislead Please, man, you're killing me. Vast majority of people have no idea about sales. Look at all the people shouting about 4k sellers being flops, not paying attention to thresholds, treating v1 sales as averages or ignoring source material boosts. If you're writing huge analysis post you should make sure it won't be misinterpreted. That is an entirely reasonable point. You didn't work on reasonable and respecting discussion the first time. I'm really sadden by it. |
ThangLongApr 15, 2014 3:56 PM
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Hahalollawl said: Can someone explain to me why Noragami is above Nisekoi in the ranking even though it appears to have sold less? Probably just a typo when tsubasalover edited it |
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| Studio (except for KyoAni but only recently) are nothing more than mercenaries. They are offered a job by someone powerful and can either agree or not. That's it. Sure, they can raise their chance by doing well, working with influential people or whatever but in the end, they can only react or at most ask for something, they have no real power. My attitude has its roots in the will to stop others from starting/instigating fanbase wars (Shaft in this case) and from spreading misinformation or propagating stereotypes (that studio decide about sequels or release format). That's why I'm allergic to singling out a specific offender. Either say that Shaft is one of many studio with show in this not so common format or refrain from accusing them of milking. You're free to only say that about Shaft but I'm just as free to react then. If you want to say that you don't see me defending other studio that's more because I feel my knowledge is insufficient in other fields as I only speak out loud when I'm sure of what I say. You say your post was short but mine was even shorter. I only elaborated when it was needed. edit: I'm retarded and read your sentence wrongly. I still wish I had money to buy whole TV show. >downhill From what I observed in countless places using this word is more of a self-fulfilling prophecy than fact. But well, I'm not the one to talk as I'm also guilty of using it sometimes. >Noragami above Nisekoi It's probably as mistress_kisara says. I wish Noragami was indeed above Nisekoi though. |
ProgeuszApr 15, 2014 4:33 PM
Progeusz said: edit: When people with lesser knowledge see huge post written in coherent manner by someone who clearly knows a lot, has thousands of posts here and is a moderator, they'll simply believe everything said there without questioning it. And then they'll parrot what was said, sometimes accidentally changing the meaning by simplifying. And then we'll have bunch of people shouting about LL's sure 80k average which will enrage the others. And then, when actual average is below 40k (or around 50k if other vols get good extras), everyone will be mad. They are welcomed to question everything, and I am here to discuss with them. I can be wrong, but at least I have spent the time to dig the information I presented, and I've tried to talk about it the best way I can. People should have known by now that they can't take any sale prediction on its face value. No one, not even the production committee or the retailers know that will happen in the future. All we can do is to look at past data and recent events to predict it. In my original post, I made no claim about which one is my sure prediction, except the number (40K) that everyone can agree on. People were skeptical and I accepted their skepticism. What I think is not productive is to hastily jump in, misrepresent what was said, and condescending attitude toward each other. Edits like this one is also not productive. Discussion, or disagreement should be between two users to the point where both sides come together and agree on something, or just respectfully agree to disagree. This, however, is meant to announce to the general public that the other sides' points are moot. People can judge things for themselves so announcement like this is not helpful. |
ThangLongApr 15, 2014 5:51 PM
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Progeusz said: Studio (except for KyoAni but only recently) are nothing more than mercenaries. They are offered a job by someone powerful and can either agree or not. That's it. Sure, they can raise their chance by doing well, working with influential people or whatever but in the end, they can only react or at most ask for something, they have no real power lol since when is Kyoani the only studio that produces original content? Takuan_Soho said: Kaioshin_Sama said: That's....really really surprising. Maybe I was confusing my best selling by year stats with best selling by season. A better stat is that while KyoAni has 12 shows in the top 125 best selling series since 2000, only 2 have been since 2010. First season of Chuunibyou 2012 is 62 and Free 2013 is 28. The reason you notice KyoAni isn't because they are invincible, but rather that they are merely above average compared to the average selling show in a season. True. Yeah I accept this as a fact now given some recent trends and hard numbers. Kyoani is very far from a sure thing anymore. |
PeacingOutApr 15, 2014 6:25 PM
| Uta Pri sold almost 60k in a week with event ticket so Love Live will surpass that at least, 90K+ isn't far fetched. THESE PEOPLE JUST DON'T KNOW ABOUT THAT IDOL LIFE! LOVE AND LIVE, LIVE AND LOVE - BANZAI BANZAI! |
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| Saw the word "sales" & immediately thought of Madoka Magica: Rebellion. |
| Waiting for BBCode to come back. |
Hahalollawl said: GuiltyKing said: belatkuro said: CGDCT = Cute girls doing cute things? The hell? Since when did that get an acronym? Wow. Hoozuki strong. Needs second season now. And I really need to get started on the Madoka movies already. But muh backlog... Oh so that's what it means. You learn something new every day, indeed. Am I the only person who thinks we don't need acronyms for everything? Isn't this getting a bit out of hand... As for the numbers, wow Arpeggio is strong. It might be interesting to compare it to the Kancolle anime when that comes out (summer I think?). you maybe don't need that, but the producer thinks 'cute girls doing cute this' is good bait for otaku japan buy DVD/BD. |
| That's surprisingly not bad sales for Nourin...and Noragami should sell more D:< |
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