Japan's Weekly Blu-ray & CD Rankings for Jan 14 - 20

Downgrade355 said:
holycrap Girls and Panzer sold 19k? lol wow.

koleare said:
OnT: Seems like I really need to watch Chuunibyou...

dtshyk said:

Single CD
*8, 12,783 *12,783 Hanazawa Kana "Silent Snow"
*9, 10,292 *52,215 Hunter x Hunter: Phantom Rouge "Reason"
34, *2,293 *54,470 Ao no Exorcist Movie "Reversi"
37, *1,832 **1,832 Shirokuma Cafe "Rama-san no Ramamanbo"

jmal said:
Probably not. If a show turns fans off, even late in the season, they generally just don't buy it at all.

dtshyk said:
Here are the weekly Blu-ray & CD rankings for January 14th - 20th.

Blu-ray
*1, 12,322 12,322 Chuunibyou demo Koi ga Shitai! vol.2
*2, *4,888 *4,888 Yuru Yuri♪♪ vol.5

jmal said:

I think E8 is very different for a few important reasons:
1. It was a much much much larger controversy than anything in Chuunibyou ever was.
2. Haruhi is divided into discrete story arcs; Chuunibyou is not, and the drama is inextricable from the overall story (and hinted at before ep 7) rather than an easily excised arc (it's not like, say, how you can just buy the Amagami or Yosuga no Sora or Bakemono disc that features your favorite girl [or Bamboo Leaf Rhapsody for that matter] and skip the rest.)

jmal said:
3. I'd argue it is actually an example of what I mentioned, i.e. that a turn-off would affect sales from the beginning or very very early on. Sales were cut 40% from season one right out of the gate (Vol. 1 sold 40k, yes; but 13k of that came a month and a half later and afterward, when copies were being discounted at retailers, even down to ¥990 at Amazon) and the later non-E8 volumes (Tameiki) sold the exact same amount as the E8 volumes.

jmal said:
If something comparable happened with Chuunibyou, there's no way Vol. 2 would be selling just 2% less than Vol. 1. Not unless its real sales potential were like 30k and the latter half chopped it to ~15k - which is really quite impossible, considering it ranked about the same later on as it did early on. That sort of discrepancy doesn't happen.

jmal said:
Maybe the argument was more plausible before Vol. 2 numbers came out, but it seems less so now. If there's any drop (and there easily could be, I'm not saying every volume will be exactly the same sales), I think it'll be somewhat small, assuming it's distinguishable from typical sales attrition.

jmal said:
Probably not. If a show turns fans off, even late in the season, they generally just don't buy it at all. Almost perfectly consistent numbers for the second volume (first week at least) would be highly unusual if a lot of people planned on dropping it eventually. Double so for a one cour series, plus Vol. 7 should see a decent uptick with the bonus episode. In general, I think anime is expensive enough that if a show really turns you off, the money is going to be spent on a show you ended up liking better.

jmal said:
I have to wonder about Jintai (it's borderline enough that that it will come down to novel sales), but Yuru Yuri♪♪ is guaranteed to average over 7k even if the next volume drops significantly, so it should be pretty safe for a third.

jmal said:
I believe there were two more restocks after then one reflected here. One rumored to be bigger (closer to 1,000) and one smaller (300 or so?) I have no idea whether the numbers are legitimate, but this one was rumored at 500 and what we have here isn't far off.

jmal said:
Heh, slow weeks tend to do that. They're selling this much every week, we just don't usually see DVD thresholds this low. Any time we do, it's Ghiblipalooza.

Progeusz said:
So I guess it wouldn't be unwise to expect additional 1.2k next week seeing how rumors rounded up this week's data? They're slowly teasing us with more and more reports. Are restocks usually this small?

jmal said:
If Haruhi 2k9 is the example we're relying on, then I feel it wouldn't. Bamboo Leaf Rhapsody is very explicitly self-contained, with a discounted MSRP, and covers very important material tied closely to deply popular story material from elsewhere in the franchise. It's impossible to find anything comparable in Chuunibyou.

jmal said:

It's not so much that I think I have a crystal ball and know for sure that a sharp drop absolutely positively cannot happen. Sales can be unpredictable, and there are so many factors at play beyond the one we're discussing. What I really want to say is that we just don't have any reason, right now, with our limited knowledge, to believe it will happen. If it's going to be a black swan event then we'll only really find out if and when it happens. I'd rather make guesses based only on the evidence we have.

jmal said:
(Granted I don't even know what each of us has in mind when we say "a significant drop" or similar. 2k? 5k? 50%? I wouldn't consider the first a big deal, the second yes, the third would be downright shocking.)

zeroyuki92 said:
I think if I already buy the vol. 1 and vol.2, I think there's no additional reason for me to stop buying the rest.

jmal said:
Yes of course. When virtually all available evidence points in one direction I feel pretty much obligated to lean (heavily) in that direction when making predictions. Otherwise I might as well just flip a coin or consult tarot cards and stop pretending to be data-driven.

Murakazu said:
How are the sales for the JoJo blurays?

symbv said:
]This is what I do not agree. I do not see much evidence from what we have that point to an extra drop in vol.4 is not going to happen. I would say that this confidence looks a bit misplaced, even though we all know KyoAni has a lot of dedicated fans and so may be more immune to such mid-series drop off. To quote a bit of what you said, I would say that we just don't have any reason, right now, with our limited knowledge, to believe it will NOT happen.

Kaioshin_Sama said:
Kyoani fans are the hardest of the hardcore and the most devoted of the most devoted and little seems to phase them as it pertains to quality vs spending. They'll still buy it simply to support the company and people will see this is a good thing. I'd bet any money on it.

Kaioshin_Sama said:
I severely doubt that Chuunibyou is going to suffer any sort of severe drop off even if people in Japan didn't like the last set of episodes. Kyoani fans are the hardest of the hardcore and the most devoted of the most devoted and little seems to phase them as it pertains to quality vs spending. They'll still buy it simply to support the company and people will see this is a good thing. I'd bet any money on it.

Kaioshin_Sama said:
Frankly though I'm about as stunned as I've ever been in reaction to the anime scene that Kyoani fans would even be harshly critical of the ending to Chuunibyou, not because I don't think it was kind of hackneyed myself, but because I just didn't know that as a whole had even a single critical bone in them as it pertains to that company.

-Ikki said:
Anyone know how are the sales of Btooom's BD??

hpulley said:

Not well, sadly... hasn't ranked yet. I am importing it and love it and the manga but this sort generally sells poorly.


BTOOOM123 by hpulley, on Flickr

jmal said:
New additions: here
Full weekly list: here

Full list is up. More data for:
Chuunibyou 1
SAO 1-2
K 1-3
Psycho-Pass 1
Little Busters 1

Even the Bakemono BD box is back, and another week for Horizon II 4 as well.

Also, we finally have the Final DVD500/BD200 Yearly Ranking. Mostly small gains except Hyouka which piled on a lot. Now the first 4 volumes are all over 10k, Vol. 1 jumps all the way from 9.4k to 11.3k. Vols. 5-6 are just short since they came out near the end of the year and thus had less time to sell. Hyouka's volume numbers are now:

Vol. 1: 11,319
Vol. 2: 10,258
Vol. 3: 10,243
Vol. 4: 10,507
Vol. 5: *9,971
Vol. 6: *9,419
Vol. 7: *9,376
Average: 10,156