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The Sequel effect in regards to mal series rating is basically a myth

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Jul 4, 2019 5:36 PM

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Sphinxter said:
Lunilah said:
That's not significant at all, audience scores are by the majority based on enjoyment. That statement just reeks of whining that people enjoy something more than another and it makes you upset.
I never said, implied, or insinuated that cared what is on top of M.A.L.'s score list.

As I said I lend zero credence to it because I've seen what is on top.

Simply put: a number that repræsents the average acclaim of a medium holds no relevance to my life; why would it? What useful information can it possibly hold? It's not even of statistical interest because the sample pool isn't randomly selected.
You don't have to state, imply, or insinuate anything for your post to reek of a child whining.

You care enough to lend it 0 credibility as a reflection of general audiences because it doesn't agree with your personal beliefs that DBZ is higher rated than Lain, despite being the largest and most used database for anime.


I don't believe in the Devil.
You should. He believes in you.
Jul 4, 2019 5:40 PM

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Lunilah said:
Sphinxter said:
I never said, implied, or insinuated that cared what is on top of M.A.L.'s score list.

As I said I lend zero credence to it because I've seen what is on top.

Simply put: a number that repræsents the average acclaim of a medium holds no relevance to my life; why would it? What useful information can it possibly hold? It's not even of statistical interest because the sample pool isn't randomly selected.
You don't have to state, imply, or insinuate anything for your post to reek of a child whining.
If a child wining be the same as simply putting out something is worthless because it's filled with gay taste then I see nothing wrong with children whining. They should call out gay taste more often.

You care enough to lend it 0 credibility as a reflection of general audiences because it doesn't agree with your personal beliefs that DBZ is higher rated than Lain, despite being the largest and most used database for anime.
Yes, that would in general be why it has no credence nor use to me because it doesn't see eye-to-eye with my taste... is this some revelation?

Obviously if M.A.L. ratings were a reflexion of my taste it would be useful to me and I could use ratings to determine whether I'd like something but they aren't.


It is obvious that "obscenity" is not a term capable of exact legal definition; in the practice of the courts, it means "anything that shocks the magistrate".

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Jul 4, 2019 5:46 PM

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Sphinxter said:
Lunilah said:
You don't have to state, imply, or insinuate anything for your post to reek of a child whining.
If a child wining be the same as simply putting out something is worthless because it's filled with gay taste then I see nothing wrong with children whining. They should call out gay taste more often.

You care enough to lend it 0 credibility as a reflection of general audiences because it doesn't agree with your personal beliefs that DBZ is higher rated than Lain, despite being the largest and most used database for anime.
Yes, that would in general be why it has no credence nor use to me because it doesn't see eye-to-eye with my taste... is this some revelation?

Obviously if M.A.L. ratings were a reflexion of my taste it would be useful to me and I could use ratings to determine whether I'd like something but they aren't.
That first part is quite broken and i have no idea what you're talking about.

No wonder you're so single minded, because it's you above everything else, i've never seen someone with a more self aware bio of themselves than you. It's true no matter what you believe, you don't get to attribute credence to it as it's credence is self evident.


I don't believe in the Devil.
You should. He believes in you.
Jul 5, 2019 4:59 AM

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We haven't really got any top 100 popularity anime in last 2 years except BnHA s3. Shingeki season 3 had 8.50 when 110k people rated the anime, as compared to 9.20 when 100k people rated the anime. I don't know how every 250k of s1's 10/10 would be active on this cancerous site even after 6 years. It's a fucking retarded thought seriously.

Even the discussion thread was like >90% 5/5 for the majority of episodes, episode 5 has like 3000 votes with 96% 5/5.

Jul 5, 2019 5:33 AM

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Ah, looks like I'm late for the discussion, but thanks for tagging me. I'll just share my observation without reading the other users' opinions as it's too much to read and it's quite difficult to follow the conversations here so pardon me if my points were repeated by other users.

I think your insight does make some sense. From your analysis, despite there is indeed a drop in the amount of "haters" (in this case people who rated it 4 or below), it does seems to makes little difference in the overall score due to the minuscule amount of "haters".

So from the observation, this "sequel effect" will regardless still holds true, but it'll display a very minimal impact to the overall score.

However, there's some grey area. Your assumption is that most of the people who dislikes it/not willing to continue watching the sequel will rate the show at 4 or below.

Since I don't have any data to show the likelihood of people not continuing with the sequel base on their score rating, my perspective can be quite biased.

As we know, any people who rate a show below its overall score will pull the overall score down, so this number we're picking is quite important. Personally, I'll most likely not continue with the sequel if I had rated a particular anime with a 6 or below (*ahem* the past me might have a tendency to do that, but now most likely won't without a good reason) so if I were to make an analysis, I would probably use the score 6 as the baseline and I think that might affect the score with visible effect. Of course, there will always be people who'll still continue to follow the series it even if they rated it "4", or people who would rate it at 7 or something, thinking that it's a decent anime but just ain't their cup of tea. We'll probably need to find out the average amount of people who'll give the sequel a miss in relation to their score and this is just one of the variables that we're missing.

Ending off, and again, I'm not saying there's a decisive answer to it. There are really quite a few unknown variables to this, just as I've mentioned in the previous thread. It can be true either way. One would probably need to do an in-depth survey with all the MAL users just to get closer to the surface to the answer. It's really hard to make up any concrete observation or conclusion to it at this point in my opinion. So honestly, I'm still open to various different perspective where there is a chance that there might really ought to have no real significance to the "sequel effect" as there's not much prove to either.

I prob should mention that in the previous discussions I was only trying to convince the existence of the "sequel effect" xD. Now that you've already shown that this effect does exist, there's nothing much that I'm "disagreeing" with you about haha. What you're discussing with people now is the significance of it, which I don't think I'll be able to provide much contribution as I lack the knowledge and observation skills to give any meaningful discussion heh. That said, I'll still be glad to know if there's any new conclusion you can draw from the discussions with other users.
jr_paperbagJul 5, 2019 5:36 AM
Jul 5, 2019 12:19 PM

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Asaeed said:
All these paragraphs over ratings...

You guys should be happy Attack on Titan is even in the top 5 at all...

This guy get's it. Plenty of people's favorite anime aren't in the top 5, but I don't see those fans making threads about it's score / rating.
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Jul 5, 2019 2:48 PM

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Guess I'm a part of the problem, will still rate it an 9 though.
Jul 5, 2019 3:14 PM

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Shoryuuken said:
Guess I'm a part of the problem, will still rate it an 9 though.


Don't take it personal, I'm not actually mad at the 9 and 8 scorers, just was using it to strengthen my point.
Jul 5, 2019 6:16 PM

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Can I ask why you're so obsessed with SNK and MAL ratings? most of the threads about this topic have been from you. The latest SNK season was good, don't get me wrong, but it's terribly inconsistent as far as the anime is concerned. Just cuz this new season was hella good, you want us to suck it's cock too? lmao.
Jul 5, 2019 6:38 PM

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TheCobraSlayer said:
First of all, your premise would be much more sound if you compared the percentages of S1 and S3 P2 individually rather than combining the two percentages into an overall score. Your data doesn't support your argument very well at all.

With that in mind, here's a full breakdown.

AOT S1

10 295,656 (26.1%)
9 327,431 (28.9%)
8 276,746 (24.4%)
7 142,097 (12.5%)
6 50,775 (4.5%)
5 23,698 (2.1%)
4 9,356 (0.8%)
3 3,709 (0.3%)
2 2,095 (0.2%)
1 3,095 (0.3%)

TOTAL: 1,105,343

AOT S3 P2

10 60,211 (50.9%)
9 34,991 (29.6%)
8 15,558 (13.2%)
7 4,583 (3.9%)
6 1,204 (1.0%)
5 464 (0.4%)
4 168 (0.1%)
3 93 (0.1%)
2 77 (0.1%)
1 920 (0.8%)

TOTAL: 108,293

Discounting the abnormally higher percentage of 1s for S3 P2 (since a portion of those are likely to be downvoters/bots), we can see that overall, the percentages of scores 7 and below are significantly lower. Not only that, the total number of scores for S3 is about a tenth as much as S1 (although S1 has admittedly been in the database for a much longer time).

While admittedly, some of these score changes can be attributed to a perceived increase in this season's quality, the sheer increase in the percentage of the high scores as well as the overall decrease in the total numbers of users with each season in their list suggests sequel effect is at least somewhat at play. The 10s and 9s from S1 are much more likely to have stuck around for this season than the 7s and below, therefore increasing the relative amount of 9-10s S3 has (which is what's making the mean so high). While this is anecdotal evidence, I myself an example of this. I have only seen S1 and S2, which I gave a 7 and a 4 respectively. I just haven't stuck around long enough, and had I watched this season (or P1), my score probably would have been 7 at best.

Additionally, to suggest that because low scores are a "minority" they "don't matter" is a flawed argument. Every score that is counted by MAL into the average matters. While this is less applicable in the case of S3 P2 due to being very high in mean, once you get below about 8.9 or so even these hundredth differences in mean score can make a drastic difference in ranking.


Copy and paste

ok let us use 1-6 then, still the percentage is small, also I use the 1-4 because the argument is that those folks would most likely drop the series from season 1.


Season 3 part 2 is getting a higher percentage of 10/10 votes because more people percentage wise is loving it.

You want me to show you the proof?

Compare season 3 part 1 for example overall vote which is over 220k votes, compare to season 3 part 2 vote which is a little over 100k, but yet season 3 part 2 has over 60k 10/10 votes compare to season 3 part 1 49k votes.

Also snk season 3 part 2 has 7500k favorites compare to season 3 part 1 4500k favorite, also season 2 which has over 800k overall vote has only 9500k favorite.

snk season 3 part 1 should also be getting this sequel effect, but its at 8.48, what's up with that? But Yeah, it is the sequel effect, am I right? Season 3 literally prove how insignificant the haters are and how my point makes more sense, that it is a natural increase because persons simple like this season more, that is the general opinion on mal or any anime website.

Do you see the pattern here? Season 3 part 2 is doing better overall in everything even though the prequel has a lot more members, what does that tell you then? That overall persons find this season as the best. The point I am making is that people are loving this season more than all the previous season, which is why the score is so high, the persons that were giving it 8 and 7 in the previous seasons are probably giving this season 9 and 10, and the persons that gave lower scores like 5 and 6 are giving it 7 and 8 now, just randomly look at persons list, the chances are much higher to see season 3 part 2 getting a higher score than the previous seasons, and I even prove it, snk season 3 part 2 has less members, but it is still getting more 10 than part 1, so people have to be giving it a higher score than season 3 part 1 at least, for it to have more 10/10 votes with 120k less members and also season 3 part 2 is just 2000k behind season 2 in terms of people adding it to their favorite, keep in mind season 2 has 800k vs season 3 part 1 100k, but you need to put that into perspective, people are loving season 3 more even with just 100k members, the numbers prove it.


@MrZawa

I did not say the sequel effect doesn't exist, I'm just saying its impact is actually not that impactful as how you guys make it out to be. Also read my post ^

@Mullerio

read post^

@Ten

All I'm saying the sequel is weak as hell, the persons that dislike the series are way too low to really damage the series.

@BlancaXLobo

I don't get why you are upset at me, I use sword art online to strengthen my point that haters are always going to be the minority, the point of this thread is that the sequel effect isn't that effective as how persons are making it out to be, the haters does minimal impact of the overall score, that is the point I was making.

@JoyBoy_316

Read this post, with season 3 part 2 comparison with season 3 part 1 and season 2, and you will see that there is hard facts to go with it as well, the numbers don't lie.


@JustMonaka

Read this post, maybe you will get what I am saying.

@Tropisch

I will make as many thread as I like.

@zombie_pegasus

read my post.


@-Senpapi
I don't expect everyone to love the series so that couldn't be the case, what I am doing is disagreeing with the general opinion that snk season 3 part 2 is at such a high score because of the sequel effect. They are basically saying snk season 3 part 2 is a fraud, because apparently those less than 5% negative votes scores from 1-5 would have done a big damage if all of them had return for this current season, let's also exclude the fact that the chances are high that those less than 5% scorers would probably have given this season a higher score, as I have said the stats prove it, people are simple [b]more people are giving this season a higher score than the previous season.

snk season 3 part 1 should also be getting this sequel effect, but its at 8.48, what's up with that? But Yeah, it is the sequel effect, am I right?


keragammingJul 5, 2019 6:55 PM
Jul 5, 2019 6:53 PM

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1) 5-6 are still exceedingly likely to drop the series. Don't discount these people as you have been doing up until now. The sequel effect doesn't apply to a binary reaction of dislike/like since apathetic reactions exist too.

2) Regarding your proof. This is likely partially attributable to the fact that this season was well received by fans and regular watchers alike. This is also true, I will not dispute the raw numbers. However, I am disputing your interpretation of the data overall.

3) The point you are still missing is that the decreasing pool of voters makes it more likely that subsequent seasons will have a higher mean score. The 100k or so users who have stuck around for this long are far more likely to view the series favorably in the first place, and be the people who bump up their scores for this season. Every time you jump a season, you lose people who felt apathetic, hated it, etc- this can be seen in the decreasing pool of voters for each season of AOT, and in general how sequels always have less users on MAL.

Let me sum up. My point is that the userbase you are drawing your conclusions from is already likely to view the series favorably. This is therefore, at least a somewhat biased sample. While, as I have already conceded, a part of the uptick in the average score is due to reception of the season, this uptick is from a userbase that's biased towards who already like the series- this is the sequel effect at play.
Jul 5, 2019 6:57 PM

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TheCobraSlayer said:
1) 5-6 are still exceedingly likely to drop the series. Don't discount these people as you have been doing up until now. The sequel effect doesn't apply to a binary reaction of dislike/like since apathetic reactions exist too.

2) Regarding your proof. This is likely partially attributable to the fact that this season was well received by fans and regular watchers alike. This is also true, I will not dispute the raw numbers. However, I am disputing your interpretation of the data overall.

3) The point you are still missing is that the decreasing pool of voters makes it more likely that subsequent seasons will have a higher mean score. The 100k or so users who have stuck around for this long are far more likely to view the series favorably in the first place, and be the people who bump up their scores for this season. Every time you jump a season, you lose people who felt apathetic, hated it, etc- this can be seen in the decreasing pool of voters for each season of AOT, and in general how sequels always have less users on MAL.

Let me sum up. My point is that the userbase you are drawing your conclusions from is already likely to view the series favorably. This is therefore, at least a somewhat biased sample. While, as I have already conceded, a part of the uptick in the average score is due to reception of the season, this uptick is from a userbase that's biased towards who already like the series- this is the sequel effect at play.


snk season 3 part 1 8.48, snk season 2 8.43, snk season 1 8.48, explain this first. Sequel effect am I right? lmao
keragammingJul 6, 2019 8:13 AM
Jul 5, 2019 7:00 PM

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My understanding is that both S2 and S3 P1 were received somewhat poorly. As someone who loathed S2, I can certainly understand a slightly more negative reaction to S2 (haven't seen S3 P1 yet, so no personal comment there). I didn't say the sequel effect automatically means increases in scores for sequels. It's a general trend, and one that's fairly common on MAL if you don't cherrypick your data the way you're doing here.

A bad season will have some level of sequel effect, but quality is certainly gonna affect mean.
Jul 5, 2019 7:05 PM

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How are top anime/manga scores calculated?
Only scores where a user has completed at least 1/5 of the anime/manga are calculated.

Example: If you watched a 26 episode series, this means you would had to have watched at least 5 episodes (26/5.2)=5. We're using 5.2 instead of 5 so we get a whole number for "most" series.

Formula
Weighted Rank (WR) = (v / (v + m)) * S + (m / (v + m)) * C
S = Average score for the Anime (mean).
v = Number of votes for the Anime = (Number of people scoring the Anime).
m = Minimum votes/scores required to get a calculated score (currently 50 scores required).
C = The mean score across the entire Anime DB.

Top Upcoming and Most Popular ranking calculation
The Top Upcoming and Most Popular titles are calculated differently to above, and are instead judged by popularity.
This popularity is measured according to the number of users who have the title in their list. The more users that have the title shown in their Anime or Manga list, the higher it will be ranked.

https://myanimelist.net/info.php?go=topanime

The number of votes also affect the rating. Sequel which normally have lesser viewers/voters is at disadvantage at gaining rating through number of votes.
Jul 5, 2019 7:08 PM

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TheCobraSlayer said:
My understanding is that both S2 and S3 P1 were received somewhat poorly. As someone who loathed S2, I can certainly understand a slightly more negative reaction to S2 (haven't seen S3 P1 yet, so no personal comment there). I didn't say the sequel effect automatically means increases in scores for sequels. It's a general trend, and one that's fairly common on MAL if you don't cherrypick your data the way you're doing here.

A bad season will have some level of sequel effect, but quality is certainly gonna affect mean.


Nah, dude its the same shit for all the other sequels, go and find any series and you will see the 1-6 ratings generally is low, majority of mal users score with 7-10, which is further proof why those have the highest percentage when it comes to majority of the series here on mal especially the top 200 series.

Also you are basically agreeing with me that quality is a factor and it is a bigger factor than the sequel effect, the previous 3 seasons all are score basically in the same region, but this season that finally reveal the truth of the basement and flip the plot on its head just skyrocketed. Why the sequel effect decided to work only after 3 seasons were released? is sequel effect a random thing? Like winning the lotto? That doesn't make any sense at all.

What makes sense is that it tells me that the basement reveal surpass most persons expectation and that the great fights and twist in the season is what made persons love this one more.

perhaps you need to watch snk season 3 part 2, maybe you yourself will understand and probably like this season more than the previous, because the general opinion is that this season is far better than the previous seasons it answers most of the question from the past 3 seasons and neatly tie them together.
keragammingJul 5, 2019 7:16 PM
Jul 5, 2019 11:23 PM
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TheCobraSlayer said:
1) 5-6 are still exceedingly likely to drop the series. Don't discount these people as you have been doing up until now. The sequel effect doesn't apply to a binary reaction of dislike/like since apathetic reactions exist too.


There are also people who will follow up for the sake of completion.We both don't know what happened to the 5-6ers so why are we trying to use them in argument?What you are saying is quite obvious but % of 6 and below is around 10%. If all viewers increase their rating by 1, it is the 9/10 ers who account for around 25% that will actually improve the score than compared to 6 and below. That is why we are ignoring them as 10% and below is quite less and we still dont know how many continued watching and how many did not.It is pointless to make general arguments such as 'Their scores matter too' Yeah I acknowledge the possibility and so does OP but since none of us has actual complete dataset,can we forget about people who dropped/gave a lukewarm response.What if a lot of people who gave 10/10 in S1 were casuals and did not pick it up cause their interests died after S2 came out 4 years later.Anything could have happened but unless you have the complete knowledge,don't go around giving general arguments that will only lead to more confusion.

TheCobraSlayer said:

2) Regarding your proof. This is likely partially attributable to the fact that this season was well received by fans and regular watchers alike. This is also true, I will not dispute the raw numbers. However, I am disputing your interpretation of the data overall.


Can you please be more clear about what 'it' is that you are disputing?I have read all your posts.The problem is that they are all correct and undisputable but what the hell are you trying to say?I still don't get whose side are you on.Most likely everyone is already aware of what you are thinking including OP.It is like you are saying 'The sun is a star', yeah we all agree,so what? why are you bringing up that fact? what are you trying to prove/disprove?

TheCobraSlayer said:

3) The point you are still missing is that the decreasing pool of voters makes it more likely that subsequent seasons will have a higher mean score. The 100k or so users who have stuck around for this long are far more likely to view the series favorably in the first place, and be the people who bump up their scores for this season. Every time you jump a season, you lose people who felt apathetic, hated it, etc- this can be seen in the decreasing pool of voters for each season of AOT, and in general how sequels always have less users on MAL.


We are aware that sequels have lesser people who hated it and that this is the reason why some shows might have dominating 'sequel effect'. Sequel effect obviously always exists,from a practical point of view as far as SnK is concerned its effect is miniscule.Sequels have lesser users, but the rating is dominated by the high-scorers(for SnK) so we don't care about the people who at any time became SnK haters cause their number is too low and even if they changed their ratings, the result would be a minor change in the score.Can you atleast provide an example of a show where 'Sequel effect' is more dominant instead of hiding in the corner and saying 'But there are shows where this is not the case'?

TheCobraSlayer said:

Let me sum up. My point is that the userbase you are drawing your conclusions from is already likely to view the series favorably. This is therefore, at least a somewhat biased sample. While, as I have already conceded, a part of the uptick in the average score is due to reception of the season, this uptick is from a userbase that's biased towards who already like the series- this is the sequel effect at play.

One thing i can agree is that SnK is not a suitable example as a data sample because the sample size is so different(S3P2 10 times lower than S1) This leads to so much unnecessary confusion. Please consider this example instead:
https://myanimelist.net/anime/10087/Fate_Zero/stats
https://myanimelist.net/anime/11741/Fate_Zero_2nd_Season/stats

The results are identical to SnK S1 and S3part2. But the sample is consistent as the number of people is almost the same and season 2 was released just after one year(We can assume that the people watching the show are mostly the same and idc about low scorers because their numbers are too small,so we can forget about them).Please look at the numbers.The number of voters for lower scores actually went down and number of 9,10's actually went up.In this example Numbers and percentages are one and the same unlike SnK.In short what OP is trying to say is visible in this example.
If 100 people watched S1 of a show and 99 liked it and 1 did not.That means that S2 has a 'biased' sample of 99 viewers.Do you see my point? We are not going to think about a random sample judging later seasons because the initial random sample itself was 'biased' in a sense.If for example 50 people liked it, 50 people did not and they dropped out.There will be heavy bias in S2 of 50 viewers who liked it and in this case the sequel effect is the dominating factor.But when it comes to SnK it is the former case.It's still a biased sample but we don't really care because of the above reason.
Whatever OP is trying to say makes sense to an extent if we only talk about SnK.But you are making very general arguments(which everyone is aware of their existence) but are not talking about the amount of relevance it has to the problem in question.Worst of all you don't provide a single example elaborating your points.The thing I am most upset about is that your arguments make total sense but you are not applying them to any particular case so it's really frustrating to argue with someone who is taken a neutral highpoint in the discussion.Yeah we are cherry-picking our data.Because we are only concerned with these datasets itself and not other cases.So please do some cherry-picking of your own and show something from which we can draw opposite conclusions.But as far as OP is concerned this is a very specific question at hand and general arguments are welcome if you also give relevant instances instead of 'Logically, this case also exists'.
OP could be a bit clearer but please argue it from OP's perspective instead of playing your own game.I feel like you both are debating with two different things in mind.If we somehow forced a random sample to sit through all the seasons of SnK,it's score will decrease but not by much because 6 and below scorers were scarce to begin with.And the fans will give a +/-1 or +/-2 to a sequel depending on how well it's made.It is reasonable right? or are you expecting them to watch it with a completely fresh view and give a completely new score?

TL;DR You are completely correct bro, but idk what point you are trying to make.Please provide examples.Sequel effect is real, we are only looking at how much impact it has.
v_maxJul 6, 2019 12:18 AM
Jul 5, 2019 11:42 PM

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I won't bother to read the post ...
But sequel effect is real, but "higher rating means more haters" is also true ...
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Jul 6, 2019 4:03 AM

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Dumbest thread I've seen in a while.
The sequel effect is real.
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Jul 6, 2019 5:00 AM

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I think people are diving way to deep and confusing themselves on an obvious topic. It is clear the sequel effect is just a dumb excuse theory. Season 2 and Season 3 score is a more relevant data than the weird and biased arguments I've read here. Jojo is also a good example when part 3 (first arc) is lower than the first show. I guarantee there is a lot of other shows proving that as well. I also am positive that if you split a top 10 show with a good amount of arcs (FMAB, Hunter x Hunter for example) the first couple of seasons would be ranked much lower than it is right now
Jul 6, 2019 8:15 AM

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Jim_Heart said:
I won't bother to read the post ...
But sequel effect is real, but "higher rating means more haters" is also true ...


Also never said it isn't real, my argument is that it's impact on sequel is weak and does little to affect the score as the low scorers are the minority and are not the one who make a big impact on the overall score, the majority scorers the 7,8, 9 and 10 are the ones who decide the score of the series.

snk season 3 part 1 8.48, snk season 2 8.43, snk season 1 8.48, explain this first. Sequel effect am I right? Or did the sequel effect decided to go on vacation until this current season aired? Because it completely ignore the last two seasons for some reason. lmao

SigmaticDoc said:
Dumbest thread I've seen in a while.
The sequel effect is real.


Also never said it isn't real, my argument is that it's impact on sequel is weak and does little to affect the score as the low scorers are the minority and are not the one who make a big impact on the overall score, the majority scorers the 7,8, 9 and 10 are the ones who decide the score of the series

snk season 3 part 1 8.48, snk season 2 8.43, snk season 1 8.48, explain this first. Sequel effect am I right? Or did the sequel effect decided to go on vacation until this current season aired? Because it completely ignore the last two seasons for some reason. lmao
keragammingJul 6, 2019 8:20 AM
Jul 6, 2019 9:48 AM

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Well, since I've been thinking about this for a few days now, I might as well add some data points to the discussion. I'll be sticking to the series where I've actually seen both the sequel and the original, so I can make some judgments on the difference in quality between the seasons.

Akagami no Shirayuki-hime, first season

10 12.9% (19881 votes)
9 18.8% (28956 votes)
8 31.4% (48280 votes)
7 23.3% (35897 votes)
6 8.4% (12958 votes)
5 3.4% (5276 votes)
4 1.0% (1528 votes)
3 0.4% (543 votes)
2 0.2% (280 votes)
1 0.2% (232 votes)

Weighted score: 7.90
Completed: 192,091
On-Hold: 12,090
Dropped: 12,538

Akagami no Shirayuki-hime, second season

10 14.9% (13782 votes)
9 22.5% (20849 votes)
8 33.8% (31350 votes)
7 20.1% (18593 votes)
6 6.1% (5611 votes)
5 1.9% (1772 votes)
4 0.5% (430 votes)
3 0.2% (162 votes)
2 0.1% (83 votes)
1 0.1% (87 votes)

Weighted score: 8.11
Completed: 120,817
On-Hold: 4,781
Dropped: 2,512

Increase in the percentage of scores of 8 and above, decrease in scores 7 and below. Overall (weighted) score 0.21 higher in sequel, but the number of people who've completed it is significantly lower. The amount of drops and on-holds, however, has decreased even more. I can't remember any significant difference in the craftsmanship between the two seasons, nor anything else that would make the fanbase favor one season over the other.

Konosuba, first season

10 15.9% (77719 votes)
9 25.7% (125306 votes)
8 32.6% (158847 votes)
7 17.2% (83740 votes)
6 5.4% (26105 votes)
5 1.9% (9453 votes)
4 0.7% (3492 votes)
3 0.3% (1377 votes)
2 0.2% (788 votes)
1 0.2% (813 votes)

Weighted score: 8.19
Completed: 614,026
On-Hold: 12,240
Dropped: 12,240

Konosuba, second season

10 18.3% (66873 votes)
9 29.7% (108341 votes)
8 31.4% (114740 votes)
7 14.3% (52322 votes)
6 4.1% (14817 votes)
5 1.4% (4943 votes)
4 0.4% (1625 votes)
3 0.2% (578 votes)
2 0.1% (331 votes)
1 0.1% (428 votes)

Weighted score: 8.37
Completed: 465,051
On-Hold: 8,047
Dropped: 5,440

Rise in the percentage of scores 9 and 10, drop in the scores of 8 and below. Overall score 0.18 higher in the sequel, but the number of people who've completed it has decreased here as well. The drop in the number of drops and on-holds has dropped proportionally more than completions, but not as dramatically as in Akagami no Shirayuki-hime. I can't remember any difference in quality or appeal between the seasons, but anecdotally I've seen more people actually preferring the first season to the second than I've seen the opposite. That's a tiny sample, however, so who knows.

Bungo Stray Dogs, first season

10 10.6% (23629 votes)
9 17.9% (39656 votes)
8 33.1% (73521 votes)
7 24.9% (55199 votes)
6 8.1% (18011 votes)
5 3.4% (7622 votes)
4 1.3% (2818 votes)
3 0.4% (967 votes)
2 0.2% (384 votes)
1 0.1% (289 votes)

Weighted score: 7.82
Completed: 276,659
On-Hold: 15,312
Dropped: 18,152

Bungo Stray Dogs, second season

10 16.2% (24189 votes)
9 28.2% (42088 votes)
8 33.9% (50523 votes)
7 15.2% (22676 votes)
6 4.1% (6124 votes)
5 1.5% (2247 votes)
4 0.5% (763 votes)
3 0.2% (254 votes)
2 0.1% (124 votes)
1 0.1% (123 votes)

Weighted score: 8.30
Completed: 193,188
On-Hold: 6,443
Dropped: 3,729

Dramatic rise in the percentage of scores 8 and above, drop in the scores 7 and below. Overall score 0.48(!) higher in the sequel, noticeable decrease in the number of completions. The amount of drops and on-holds has again decreased proportionally more than the amount of completions, with an especially dramatic decrease in the amount of drops. However, I can definitely see why fans might like the sequel better, since the stakes are higher, three-dimensional chess more intricate, narrative more focused on the overarching plot, and the series delves into the backstory of a fan-favorite character in a dramatic four-episode flashback arc.


There's a small sample of numbers and comparisons. The superficial analysis I did while writing this post suggest to me that there is something to the sequel effect, but I don't know how great the impact really is. In any case, I believe the sequel effect has always been more of a general rule of thumb rather than an immutable law.
Jul 6, 2019 11:34 AM
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Vilkku92 said:


There's a small sample of numbers and comparisons. The superficial analysis I did while writing this post suggest to me that there is something to the sequel effect, but I don't know how great the impact really is. In any case, I believe the sequel effect has always been more of a general rule of thumb rather than an immutable law.


Yes Thank you.Finally someone willing to put out some data. Idk about the other two shows but i have seen Konosuba and Konosuba 2 and i feel the same way as you do.I can definitely see some Sequel effect having more impact than other cases.But in the end it's pointless to talk about unless you know every single detail behind the data.
Jul 6, 2019 2:12 PM
*hug noises*

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I'm pretty sure if you just take a look at a decent amount of franchises with multiple seasons and compared their data then the simple fact that sequel effect is very much a reality would be clear as day. And I don't really see why anyone would argue against it anyway because it makes all the sense in the world

Assuming that you had two seasons of an unnamed series with the exact same level of quality, then the second season would always have a higher score with zero exceptions

Now in reality they will obviously never be exactly the same, however the above statement is nevertheless undeniable, simply because the distribution of people that like or dislike a first season will always be more in favour of the fans in regards to who will be willing to pick up the second season. Since S2 will always have fewer viewers, this is merely a natural conclusion
Jul 6, 2019 10:01 PM

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12258
HaXXspetten said:
I'm pretty sure if you just take a look at a decent amount of franchises with multiple seasons and compared their data then the simple fact that sequel effect is very much a reality would be clear as day. And I don't really see why anyone would argue against it anyway because it makes all the sense in the world

Assuming that you had two seasons of an unnamed series with the exact same level of quality, then the second season would always have a higher score with zero exceptions

Now in reality they will obviously never be exactly the same, however the above statement is nevertheless undeniable, simply because the distribution of people that like or dislike a first season will always be more in favour of the fans in regards to who will be willing to pick up the second season. Since S2 will always have fewer viewers, this is merely a natural conclusion


If you had read my post or my replies to some of the comments with the exact generic cut and paste reply like yours, you wouldn't be posting the same exact thing others have been posting.

Jul 6, 2019 10:17 PM

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Oct 2014
2354
keragamming said:
HaXXspetten said:
I'm pretty sure if you just take a look at a decent amount of franchises with multiple seasons and compared their data then the simple fact that sequel effect is very much a reality would be clear as day. And I don't really see why anyone would argue against it anyway because it makes all the sense in the world

Assuming that you had two seasons of an unnamed series with the exact same level of quality, then the second season would always have a higher score with zero exceptions

Now in reality they will obviously never be exactly the same, however the above statement is nevertheless undeniable, simply because the distribution of people that like or dislike a first season will always be more in favour of the fans in regards to who will be willing to pick up the second season. Since S2 will always have fewer viewers, this is merely a natural conclusion


If you had read my post or my replies to some of the comments with the exact generic cut and paste reply like yours, you wouldn't be posting the same exact thing others have been posting.

What do you expect when your topic states "the sequel effect [...] is basically a myth"?

Also not sure why you never replied to my 2 posts on page one about AOT 8+ ratings and SAO, where i demonstrate your presupposition is misrepresented as the sequel effect extends way past 1-4, all the way to 1-7 and even 8-10. It affects everything.

I demonstrated the sequel effect in AOT here:

Sao here:


I don't believe in the Devil.
You should. He believes in you.
Jul 7, 2019 12:08 AM
*hug noises*

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31403
keragamming said:
HaXXspetten said:
I'm pretty sure if you just take a look at a decent amount of franchises with multiple seasons and compared their data then the simple fact that sequel effect is very much a reality would be clear as day. And I don't really see why anyone would argue against it anyway because it makes all the sense in the world

Assuming that you had two seasons of an unnamed series with the exact same level of quality, then the second season would always have a higher score with zero exceptions

Now in reality they will obviously never be exactly the same, however the above statement is nevertheless undeniable, simply because the distribution of people that like or dislike a first season will always be more in favour of the fans in regards to who will be willing to pick up the second season. Since S2 will always have fewer viewers, this is merely a natural conclusion


If you had read my post or my replies to some of the comments with the exact generic cut and paste reply like yours, you wouldn't be posting the same exact thing others have been posting.

I’ve read plenty of them. So what? At the end of the day this whole thread is pointless because no matter how you try to spin the numbers to your advantage to support your own argument, it still doesn’t change the fact that saying something like that “the sequel effect is basically a myth” is simply objectively wrong. There isn’t really much worth discussing here
Jul 7, 2019 9:05 AM

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12258
Lunilah said:
keragamming said:


If you had read my post or my replies to some of the comments with the exact generic cut and paste reply like yours, you wouldn't be posting the same exact thing others have been posting.

What do you expect when your topic states "the sequel effect [...] is basically a myth"?

Also not sure why you never replied to my 2 posts on page one about AOT 8+ ratings and SAO, where i demonstrate your presupposition is misrepresented as the sequel effect extends way past 1-4, all the way to 1-7 and even 8-10. It affects everything.

I demonstrated the sequel effect in AOT here:

Sao here:


sao season 2 is rated even lower than season 1. I am not saying the sequel effect isn't a thing, but its impact is minimal than what persons are making it out to be like. I don't trust any data that is inconsistent.
Jul 7, 2019 1:02 PM

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2354
keragamming said:
Lunilah said:
What do you expect when your topic states "the sequel effect [...] is basically a myth"?

Also not sure why you never replied to my 2 posts on page one about AOT 8+ ratings and SAO, where i demonstrate your presupposition is misrepresented as the sequel effect extends way past 1-4, all the way to 1-7 and even 8-10. It affects everything.

I demonstrated the sequel effect in AOT here:

Sao here:


sao season 2 is rated even lower than season 1. I am not saying the sequel effect isn't a thing, but its impact is minimal than what persons are making it out to be like. I don't trust any data that is inconsistent.
Season 2 being rated lower shows how impactful the sequel effect is. The 6+ ratings after season 2 had a massive drop off of 68.9% and 8+ had a much smaller drop off (presumably because they stuck around) of 58.9%, and as a whole it trends upwards when you consider those massive amounts of people who left stopped watching. It's completely consistent.


I don't believe in the Devil.
You should. He believes in you.
Feb 12, 2021 1:12 PM

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Feb 2021
497
TheCobraSlayer said:
First of all, your premise would be much more sound if you compared the percentages of S1 and S3 P2 individually rather than combining the two percentages into an overall score. Your data doesn't support your argument very well at all.

With that in mind, here's a full breakdown.

AOT S1

10 295,656 (26.1%)
9 327,431 (28.9%)
8 276,746 (24.4%)
7 142,097 (12.5%)
6 50,775 (4.5%)
5 23,698 (2.1%)
4 9,356 (0.8%)
3 3,709 (0.3%)
2 2,095 (0.2%)
1 3,095 (0.3%)

TOTAL: 1,105,343

AOT S3 P2

10 60,211 (50.9%)
9 34,991 (29.6%)
8 15,558 (13.2%)
7 4,583 (3.9%)
6 1,204 (1.0%)
5 464 (0.4%)
4 168 (0.1%)
3 93 (0.1%)
2 77 (0.1%)
1 920 (0.8%)

TOTAL: 108,293

Discounting the abnormally higher percentage of 1s for S3 P2 (since a portion of those are likely to be downvoters/bots), we can see that overall, the percentages of scores 7 and below are significantly lower. Not only that, the total number of scores for S3 is about a tenth as much as S1 (although S1 has admittedly been in the database for a much longer time).

While admittedly, some of these score changes can be attributed to a perceived increase in this season's quality, the sheer increase in the percentage of the high scores as well as the overall decrease in the total numbers of users with each season in their list suggests sequel effect is at least somewhat at play. The 10s and 9s from S1 are much more likely to have stuck around for this season than the 7s and below, therefore increasing the relative amount of 9-10s S3 has (which is what's making the mean so high). While this is anecdotal evidence, I myself an example of this. I have only seen S1 and S2, which I gave a 7 and a 4 respectively. I just haven't stuck around long enough, and had I watched this season (or P1), my score probably would have been 7 at best.

Additionally, to suggest that because low scores are a "minority" they "don't matter" is a flawed argument. Every score that is counted by MAL into the average matters. While this is less applicable in the case of S3 P2 due to being very high in mean, once you get below about 8.9 or so even these hundredth differences in mean score can make a drastic difference in ranking.


Idk but for animes with several season MAL really should try to add an AVERAGE /OVERALL score too, like REAL SERIES DO... that way you can have

Example : aot season 1 ... 8,48 ... amount of users 1,715,339
Season 2 ... 8,44 ... amount of users 1,003,285 ( - 712.054 users)
Season 3 ... 8,59 ... amount of users 748,520 ( - 254.765 users)
S 3 pt 2 ... 9,10 ... amount of users 700,075 ( - 48.445 users in same season )
S finale ... 9,17 ... amount of users 276.010 ( - 424.065 is airing so i asume will increased)

Average /overall = 8,756 ... so the score will include all season.

Now why you asked, cuz is a whole show with a continuity ... like GOT, and all series with seversl season on idbm , you got GENERAL SCORE OF THE SHOW AND then i dividual rating ... episode rating will be asking to much from mal staff

They have so much issues avoiding voting brigade . Why do i use AoT as example, to make it short cuz im annoying on how they act that their score is better than any show WHEN IS HAS SIGNIFICALLY less users than other shows, will lead in increaisng of the RATING, which is an ilusion since only loyal fans stay voting 10/10 and people who drop it didnt review, look at the ampunt of people who have drop this show. If is such a masterpiece, why many people leave it ???

Casual viewers who cuould rste this show 7 or 8 also leave, avoiding to lpw the score BUT ANYWAY, WITH ALL THIS FACTS, REAL PROOF AOT fans blame full metal alchemist fandom for their scoring decreasing , DUDE BE REAL, MORE PEOPLE WILL WATCH IT LATER, THEREFORD score itsome will find it good and score it 7, who knows, i never seen such an entitled fandom before, that instead of realising for all people will score 10/10 they blame it on OTHERS and their

Conspiro paranoic delusion that MAL is rigid or benefic a 1 year old show that score 9 in japan last year of most BELOVED MANGAS EVER... 12 year old manga , respect your elders hahahah

You dont have to like it but score it 1 out pf 10 is ridiculous and just show how inmature in general are tye new users of this site, they are making so hard fpr general public to believe in the scoring system.
Feb 12, 2021 1:16 PM

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1848
Bayek said:
Alright, listen up fellas. I've got a simple message for anyone not doing their part to make AoT #1 and scoring Season 3 Part 2 a 10/10.



this is pure gold . thank you for this amazing post .
Feb 12, 2021 1:20 PM

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Feb 2021
497
MrZawa said:
Sequel effect is however a very logical thing. Even without using any data a simple logic will already reveal its existence. And since user above already broke data down so I'm not gonna do that anymore.

Either way in short in spite of haters the latter seasons tend to have a lot more higher scores, because most (obviously not all) people that continue the series do it because they have some degree of like towards it. And besides a few trolls most people who drop a series because they don't like it don't bother rating latter seasons of said show with a low score. Therefore sequels will have much higher % of good ratings compared to bad ones than the earlier seasons do. At least as long as they don't mess up significantly enough to alienate people who liked earlier seasons. This is a simple psychology. I don't think that it even requires such a deep thinking to understand.

It's also consistent with sequels generally speaking being higher rated than the prequels, which is a very common thing.


I go numbers to back up your flawless argument :

Idk but for animes with several season MAL reslly should try to add an AVERAGE /OVERALL score too, like REAL SERIES DO... that way you can have

Example : aot season 1 ... 8,48 ... amount of users 1,715,339
Season 2 ... 8,44 ... amount of users 1,003,285 ( - 712.054 users)
Season 3 ... 8,59 ... amount of users 748,520 ( - 254.765 users)
S 3 pt 2 ... 9,10 ... amount of users 700,075 ( - 48.445 users in same season )
S finale ... 9,17 ... amount of users 276.010 ( - 424.065 is airing so i asume will increased)

Average /overall = 8,756 ... so the score will include all season.

Now why you asked, cuz is a whole show with a continuity ... like GOT, and all series with seversl season on idbm.

Look at the numbers of people who dropped the series, obvioulsy that mean less negative or lower scores in later season, and if only fans stay obviously biased scores will increase

I will paste other user FINE INFO:

AOT S1

10 295,656 (26.1%)
9 327,431 (28.9%)
8 276,746 (24.4%)
7 142,097 (12.5%)
6 50,775 (4.5%)
5 23,698 (2.1%)
4 9,356 (0.8%)
3 3,709 (0.3%)
2 2,095 (0.2%)
1 3,095 (0.3%)

TOTAL: 1,105,343

AOT S3 P2

10 60,211 (50.9%)
9 34,991 (29.6%)
8 15,558 (13.2%)
7 4,583 (3.9%)
6 1,204 (1.0%)
5 464 (0.4%)
4 168 (0.1%)
3 93 (0.1%)
2 77 (0.1%)
1 920 (0.8%)

TOTAL: 108,293
Feb 12, 2021 1:31 PM

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Oct 2013
12258
Noir_Alchemist said:
MrZawa said:
Sequel effect is however a very logical thing. Even without using any data a simple logic will already reveal its existence. And since user above already broke data down so I'm not gonna do that anymore.

Either way in short in spite of haters the latter seasons tend to have a lot more higher scores, because most (obviously not all) people that continue the series do it because they have some degree of like towards it. And besides a few trolls most people who drop a series because they don't like it don't bother rating latter seasons of said show with a low score. Therefore sequels will have much higher % of good ratings compared to bad ones than the earlier seasons do. At least as long as they don't mess up significantly enough to alienate people who liked earlier seasons. This is a simple psychology. I don't think that it even requires such a deep thinking to understand.

It's also consistent with sequels generally speaking being higher rated than the prequels, which is a very common thing.


I go numbers to back up your flawless argument :

Idk but for animes with several season MAL reslly should try to add an AVERAGE /OVERALL score too, like REAL SERIES DO... that way you can have

Example : aot season 1 ... 8,48 ... amount of users 1,715,339
Season 2 ... 8,44 ... amount of users 1,003,285 ( - 712.054 users)
Season 3 ... 8,59 ... amount of users 748,520 ( - 254.765 users)
S 3 pt 2 ... 9,10 ... amount of users 700,075 ( - 48.445 users in same season )
S finale ... 9,17 ... amount of users 276.010 ( - 424.065 is airing so i asume will increased)

Average /overall = 8,756 ... so the score will include all season.

Now why you asked, cuz is a whole show with a continuity ... like GOT, and all series with seversl season on idbm.

Look at the numbers of people who dropped the series, obvioulsy that mean less negative or lower scores in later season, and if only fans stay obviously biased scores will increase

I will paste other user FINE INFO:

AOT S1

10 295,656 (26.1%)
9 327,431 (28.9%)
8 276,746 (24.4%)
7 142,097 (12.5%)
6 50,775 (4.5%)
5 23,698 (2.1%)
4 9,356 (0.8%)
3 3,709 (0.3%)
2 2,095 (0.2%)
1 3,095 (0.3%)

TOTAL: 1,105,343

AOT S3 P2

10 60,211 (50.9%)
9 34,991 (29.6%)
8 15,558 (13.2%)
7 4,583 (3.9%)
6 1,204 (1.0%)
5 464 (0.4%)
4 168 (0.1%)
3 93 (0.1%)
2 77 (0.1%)
1 920 (0.8%)

TOTAL: 108,293


First of all you are using old data, the new data proves that you are wrong.

Ok, lets play your game, lets use numbers to compare.

The score increase base on sheer quality of season 3 part 2, this is when the series reach a new height, just like hxh 2011, it was rated 8.60 after the yorknew arc, but it wasn't after the chimera ant arc had ended it score skyrocketed pass 9.00.

Ok ,explain this.

Season 3 part 1. it has over 750k votes and over 190k users gave it a 10/10 votes. https://myanimelist.net/anime/35760/Shingeki_no_Kyojin_Season_3/stats

season 3 part 2, the basement arc has roughly 700k overall votes, yet its 10/10 votes is over 320k in total!, now explain that?

Want me to go on? Why is snk season 2 rated lower than season 1 if the sequel effect is so big as you think? It has over 1 million votes and it only has over 200k 10/10 votes https://myanimelist.net/anime/25777/Shingeki_no_Kyojin_Season_2/stats

Snk season 3 part 2 is impressive because snk season 1 even though it has over 1.7 million votes has only 460k 10/10 votes while snk season 3 part 2 with only 700k has over 320k 10/10 votes.

fmab has 1.3 million votes and its 10/10 is over 700k for example, so based off my estimate and the score of season 3 part 2, my 800-900k estimate for snk season 3 part 2 is pretty accurate.

If you use simple probably and statistics into this, it means whenever snk season 3 part 2 reaches at 1.7 million votes it will probably have around 800k to 900k 10/10 votes by then.


And if you want I can use the way back machine to tell how much 10/10 votes snk had when it only had 700k votes.

You see I'm playing your game here, clearly you miscalculate everything. You are simple looking at it like this, snk season 1 had this many votes while snk season 3 part 2 has this many votes, see snk 1 had a way lower score than the later season because the numbers are lower! Without really factoring other things in it. That is not how it works.
keragammingFeb 12, 2021 1:40 PM
Feb 12, 2021 1:36 PM

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Jan 2009
92509
Attack on Titan may simply be an exception to the rule or view the sequel effect as some rule of thumb only
Feb 12, 2021 1:54 PM

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Nov 2017
5678
Season two of the Council of People's Commissars (SNK :P ) seems to follow the trend where a sequel season that comes out several years after the previous one has a significantly lower score than the one before it. I wonder what's going on in there.
Feb 12, 2021 1:55 PM

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Oct 2012
15987
deg said:
Attack on Titan may simply be an exception to the rule or view the sequel effect as some rule of thumb only
Yeah, OP conveniently ignored the structural changes in the source, when Eren attains titan powers and the show becomes more like a typical shounen, and then when the studio changed from Wit to MAPPA and the style chances slightly to less poppy colors, a soft light filter and more 3D scenes. In both cases, a portion of the fan base weren't happy.

That's why when doing an analysis on an "effect", you can't just look at one show. It's laughable. OP's whole spiel is equivalent of if someone said poor people are more stressed out on average, and OP says, "Oh yeah? I know a guy named Bob whose piss broke and the happiest man alive!"
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Feb 12, 2021 2:09 PM

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12258
katsucats said:
deg said:
Attack on Titan may simply be an exception to the rule or view the sequel effect as some rule of thumb only
Yeah, OP conveniently ignored the structural changes in the source, when Eren attains titan powers and the show becomes more like a typical shounen, and then when the studio changed from Wit to MAPPA and the style chances slightly to less poppy colors, a soft light filter and more 3D scenes. In both cases, a portion of the fan base weren't happy.

That's why when doing an analysis on an "effect", you can't just look at one show. It's laughable. OP's whole spiel is equivalent of if someone said poor people are more stressed out on average, and OP says, "Oh yeah? I know a guy named Bob whose piss broke and the happiest man alive!"


Wtf are you talking about? This was made before the final seaosn was released or even before we knew Mappa was taking over.

Also what @deg is saying is that snk is an exception to the rule, he is saying he agrees with my point but believes this is not the case for sequel series.

So I don't know want the fuck you are talking, about come back with a better reply and try again.

Vilkku92 said:
Season two of the Council of People's Commissars (SNK :P ) seems to follow the trend where a sequel season that comes out several years after the previous one has a significantly lower score than the one before it. I wonder what's going on in there.


Significantly lower score? Huh season 2 score isn't that far off from season 1, not sure on the point you were trying to make, come back and try again.
Feb 12, 2021 2:11 PM

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Dec 2016
6056
so well, OP, judging by your two threads about the same, is it a myth or not?
Feb 12, 2021 2:17 PM

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15987
keragamming said:
katsucats said:
Yeah, OP conveniently ignored the structural changes in the source, when Eren attains titan powers and the show becomes more like a typical shounen, and then when the studio changed from Wit to MAPPA and the style chances slightly to less poppy colors, a soft light filter and more 3D scenes. In both cases, a portion of the fan base weren't happy.

That's why when doing an analysis on an "effect", you can't just look at one show. It's laughable. OP's whole spiel is equivalent of if someone said poor people are more stressed out on average, and OP says, "Oh yeah? I know a guy named Bob whose piss broke and the happiest man alive!"


Wtf are you talking about? This was made before the final seaosn was released or even before we knew Mappa was taking over.

Also what @deg is saying is that snk is an exception to the rule, he is saying he agrees with my point but believes this is not the case for sequel series.

So I don't know want the fuck you are talking, about come back with a better reply and try again.
Alright look kid, you can get angry all you want but it doesn't change the fact that the nature of your entire analysis is irrelevant to the sequel effect since it's anecdotal. You conveniently ignored the structural plot changes I talked about, which again, just cements your cartoonish bias and lack of objectivity and balance in the approach.

@deg said that AoT may be an exception to the "rule", meaning that there is a rule. That's not agreeing with you when your whole rant is about there not being a sequel effect.

So what have we ascertained?
  • You're angry. At yourself, the world, and me (lol).
  • You can't read.
  • You dishonestly ignore everyone else's point just to reiterate your dogma.
  • You don't know what "correlation" means.
  • You don't understand how anecdotes are irrelevant.
  • You need basic statistic lessons.

Did I miss anything?
My subjective reviews: katsureview.wordpress.com
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Feb 12, 2021 2:19 PM

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92509
yep the sequel effect is still true it might just be that Attack on Titan is an exception but again the sequel effect is still true overall for all the anime in the database of MAL it might not be some iron clad rule but a rule of thumb nonetheless
Feb 12, 2021 2:29 PM

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Nov 2017
5678
keragamming said:
Significantly lower score? Huh season 2 score isn't that far off from season 1, not sure on the point you were trying to make, come back and try again.

Huh, I seem to have misread that. Sorry about that. However, it is still a lower score on a sequel that came out several years after the previous one, which is one of the situations where the sequel effect doesn't really happen, or at least happens far less often. It's not really breaking any patterns as far as I can see.

Other than that... I just find it interesting. The whole sequel scoring thing, that is. What is causing sequels that come out several years after the first one to (often) have lower scores while sequels coming out soon after the first one (tend to) get higher score? Is that even in any way correct observation, or am I mistaken about it? I don't know, but I'd like to. That's all, really. I'm just interested in the conversation.
Feb 12, 2021 2:35 PM

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katsucats said:
keragamming said:


Wtf are you talking about? This was made before the final seaosn was released or even before we knew Mappa was taking over.

Also what @deg is saying is that snk is an exception to the rule, he is saying he agrees with my point but believes this is not the case for sequel series.

So I don't know want the fuck you are talking, about come back with a better reply and try again.
Alright look kid, you can get angry all you want but it doesn't change the fact that the nature of your entire analysis is irrelevant to the sequel effect since it's anecdotal. You conveniently ignored the structural plot changes I talked about, which again, just cements your cartoonish bias and lack of objectivity and balance in the approach.

@deg said that AoT may be an exception to the "rule", meaning that there is a rule. That's not agreeing with you when your whole rant is about there not being a sequel effect.

So what have we ascertained?
  • You're angry. At yourself, the world, and me (lol).
  • You can't read.
  • You dishonestly ignore everyone else's point just to reiterate your dogma.
  • You don't know what "correlation" means.
  • You don't understand how anecdotes are irrelevant.
  • You need basic statistic lessons.

Did I miss anything?

Let me go a bit further I disagree with deg, why? Because statistically its proven that the average users rate between 7-10, hence why most of the average anime are rated in the 7 range.

And why on mal, most persons consider a any anime that is rated 7 on mal, as a low score, because many users use 7/10 as average. That's what I have realise.

You can insult me all you want.

So this notion that its because most of the haters are gone is bullshit, look at the stats its self, from 1/10 to 6/10 for most anime the percentage of those are extremely low compare to scores like 7/10 to 10/10.

That is really all I was saying.
keragammingFeb 12, 2021 2:38 PM
Feb 12, 2021 2:36 PM

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There isn't much point in using AoT to evaluate the sequel effect, since S3P2 and S4 have many more favourites than S2 and S3P1, which means that they are actually considered better.

I'd recommend something like Yuru Camp, Aria or Non Non Biyori for this purpose. And I'm pretty sure we'll find out that the sequel effect exists.
Feb 12, 2021 3:03 PM
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If you think of the sequel effect as the statement that those who do not like a series will not watch a sequel and define those who do not like a series as those who give a score <5, then the sequel effect is
probably real and certainly insignificant.

This however is not a very good way of looking at survivourship bias in the rating of anime sequels. A glance at the numbers suggests that even among those who score the series a 10 a significant number (>50% in some cases) do not watch the sequel. However, if we assume that those who give score X to the sequel is a subset of those who give score X to the original series, then it is clear that those who give a lower score, are less likely to watch the sequel.

If we define the "sequel effect" to be an upward bias in mean score caused by a positive correlation between score given and both likeliness to watch the sequel and score given to the sequel, then our data is quite consistent with the existence and significance of such an effect.
William Hughes

Complex systems exhibit unexpected behaviour
Feb 12, 2021 3:20 PM

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Nirinbo said:
There isn't much point in using AoT to evaluate the sequel effect, since S3P2 and S4 have many more favourites than S2 and S3P1, which means that they are actually considered better.

I'd recommend something like Yuru Camp, Aria or Non Non Biyori for this purpose. And I'm pretty sure we'll find out that the sequel effect exists.


I'm happy that you have brought up that point, that is another point I have use, but many users brush that aside, because it does indicate that this season is more loved.

Ok to your point, so I'm guessing you are saying the prequel for non Biyori is better than its prequel?

As I said to another user, the users that didn't like the series is in the minority 1/10 to 6/10 so their scores does affect the series but not that much, most anime if you look at their stats has less than 10% of users that give the series a a score below a 7/10.

So in truth its really about the 7,8,9 10 scorers. I'm comparing the stats and there not much difference at all.

I guess you can make a argument that most of the 8/10 users has return to watch the sequel over the 7/10 scorers?

I honestly believe users generally like sequels, as I said its probably just how stories are structured, introduction of characters, the world etc and many people always find these part as the set up or the less exciting part, but when we reach later parts or the middle parts of the story that is normally when the story gets to the exciting part, or even the climax of the story.

That's my theory tbh.

Vilkku92 said:
keragamming said:
Significantly lower score? Huh season 2 score isn't that far off from season 1, not sure on the point you were trying to make, come back and try again.

Huh, I seem to have misread that. Sorry about that. However, it is still a lower score on a sequel that came out several years after the previous one, which is one of the situations where the sequel effect doesn't really happen, or at least happens far less often. It's not really breaking any patterns as far as I can see.

Other than that... I just find it interesting. The whole sequel scoring thing, that is. What is causing sequels that come out several years after the first one to (often) have lower scores while sequels coming out soon after the first one (tend to) get higher score? Is that even in any way correct observation, or am I mistaken about it? I don't know, but I'd like to. That's all, really. I'm just interested in the conversation.


I think it has to do with momentum and hype? Think about it, you got excited or season 1 and its final episode had aired and now you are waiting on sequels, after years persons move on and they lose interest in it, once its out, the only thing you remember is that you use to really like this series, but you have lost interest, you now watch the sequel and you may find it good but you or the series just don't have the same buzz as before.


I'm not sure if this is the best analogy, but imagine you are on a rollercoaster, just a simple one where you go up and down, the ride overall is exciting but its gets really exciting when you reach the top and then you go down quickly, so lets say every 30 seconds you go up and then you go down, now imagine you going up, but instead of it lasting 30 seconds its like 10 minutes, so its taking 10 minutes to go up before going down, by time you reach to the top to go back down, you will lose your excitement because of how long it took to reach back to the top, all excitement is gone, I think that is the same concept.

Not the best analogy lmao, but I think momentum plays and important role in all this, that is why snk popularity was hurt in that long 4 years gap, though the series has rebound and gain back traction by having momentum this time, notice we now get a new season every year? Which maintains the hype and momentum.

Feb 12, 2021 4:50 PM

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keragamming said:
Ok to your point, so I'm guessing you are saying the prequel for non Biyori is better than its prequel?

As I said to another user, the users that didn't like the series is in the minority 1/10 to 6/10 so their scores does affect the series but not that much, most anime if you look at their stats has less than 10% of users that give the series a a score below a 7/10.

So in truth its really about the 7,8,9 10 scorers. I'm comparing the stats and there not much difference at all..


Even if the % of scores between 7 and 10 is more or less the same, it doesn't matter as long as those who gave S1 a 10 are more likely to watch S2 asap than those who gave a lower score.

Yuru Camp S1 has been rated 10 by 22k users, around 17%.

Yuru Camp S2 has been rated by 11k users in total. How many of those gave S1 a 10? If the ratio is higher that 17%, that would be the definitive evidence of the sequel effect.

One thing we could do is making a poll on Yuru Camp S2 forum section, asking whether S2>S1 or S2=S1. Given the difference in score, the first option should win by a large margin if sequel effect doesn't exist.
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