j0x said: That's technically not accurate. That's the margin of error for a perfect random sampling. With as large and diverse a population as that of the United States, that's not possible.Mushmallow said: What's your point? A sample size of a little over 2000 people tells us nothing becuase it's way less than 10% of the population. im no statistician but that is how statistics work, you get a small sample size and apply it to a large population then calculate the margin of error this table says that - http://www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fair-projects/project_ideas/Soc_participants.shtml a sample size of 2000 will have a margin error of 2.2% only For example: if this is a phone survey, it's only going to be taken by the people who have phones and have accepted being called for such things. If that sub-group does not perfectly represent the greater population, than the results are automatically skewed. Even if it does, you're still not taking a proper random sample, but rather a random sample of a sample. Consequently, any calculations to random sample margin of error do not truly apply. Even beyond that, the truth of the matter is that it's much easier to manufacture skewed results than get an unbiased opinion from a poll - specific wording can skew results considerably, as a prior poster has noted. And many polls will go further and make cherry-picking insanely easy by giving multiple answers. Biased reporters then choose only one of the answers and lump all the rest together. For example, a question asking whether someone believes, say, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act should stay or not might give the following options: A) Keep as it is B) Change the current law to fix it C) Repeal without replacement D) Repeal and replace with something else A conservative mouthpiece could very easily hold A as the only one representing support for the law, and say everyone else opposes it. It would be misleading, but beyond arguing semantics, is technically accurate. Questions that purport to show one group or another stupid tend to be carefully worded to elicit the desired "stupid" response, will often use the multiple answer stunt, will be thrown out for no other purpose than to provide fodder, and the results will be misrepresented by those reporting on them. They are never trustworthy. You can find crazy or stupid ideas supported at least 20% of any population using that method. |
aloricg said: No...you're the one believing that it's a random sample without proof. I'm exercising skeptism.Mushmallow said: aloricg: that was a completely random and baseless accusation. Survey is not confirmed to be an SRS and I seriously doubt it is one. So you'll believe one thing without proof but not another because... reasons? |
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aloricg said: No, I am questioning why you "believe" this poll has truly done "random sampling". The study itself doesn't even claim to have, nor does it describe who it polled within America. Pirating_Ninja said: The study that this article is based on, or rather the summary of the study that this article is based on does not state the sampling method, the survey method, nor the questions given and the answers for said questions. Furthermore there is a disclaimer at the bottom of the site saying "Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system". What I find alarming are the amount of people that are believing things like "This was a random sample" or "This is a valid representation of statistics". Neither of which are represented or proven within this article. The true "worry" is people who "believe" in the results of polls like this. Similar "polls" have stated things like 1 in every 4 women in America have been raped. I mean it's cute and all, but a large portion of those answered "yes" to "Have you ever regretted having sexual intercourse with a partner?", and guess what that poll concluded? This was rape. Knowing the "Facts" about a poll is pretty darn important if you want to go around believing something is a "fact". (Repeating myself here because I am truly concerned for those who ridicule people "believing" in things like a geocentric theory and yet at the same time are "believing" that everything they see on the news is a fact.) So.. you're saying you'll argue either side as long as if fulfills your sense of intellectual elitism to do so? Survey method is extremely important as well, and yet even then it just says "they were asked questions". For instance was it online? Online surveys are notoriously inaccurate. Drawing any conclusion from a statement made with no proof is great and all, but it is no different than people did hundreds of years ago when they believed the earth was flat. This isn't intellectual Elitism, this is basic science. Questioning a "fact" is what a scientist should do, "believing" something to be 100% true is what a scientist should never do. And lastly, what were the questions asked, these types of surveys are notorious for leaving out the facts, for instance it said that 74% of Americans answered that the solar system was Heliocentric. However did it specifically state that the rest answered incorrectly? Nope. And even then, define incorrect. Perhaps they didn't know the word "heliocentric" and therefore were wrong. While they do know that the Earth revolves around the sun they are marked as "not knowing that the Earth revolved around the sun". Data manipulation runs rampant in this century, and people are way too quick to believe in what they want to believe. They are so quick to write off something as a fact when usually their are two sides to the same coin. But its the "other side" that has incorrect data, or manipulated their data. . . |
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| And.. while touting science you just prattled off a bunch of baseless assumptions, for which you've not proof, to support your own beliefs. |
| even more inaccurate could be phone survey's, especially if they're conducted during the day. People who would be at home to answer those are more likely not to have a job and, by extension, more likely to be uneducated. You need to know this information before deciding to trust the results of polls. Tons of factors can introduce bias. |
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aloricg said: Which "belief" if I may be so bold? You have done nothing but make incorrect assumptions, both in how statistics works, as well as how information literacy as a whole works. But do go on, tell me what my "beliefs" are.And.. while touting science you just prattled off a bunch of baseless assumptions, for which you've not proof, to support your own beliefs. |
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Mushmallow said: even more inaccurate could be phone survey's, especially if they're conducted during the day. People who would be at home to answer those are more likely not to have a job and, by extension, more likely to be uneducated. You need to know this information before deciding to trust the results of polls. Tons of factors can introduce bias. And your proof to support this supposition is..? What exactly..? |
aloricg said: My AP statistics textbook/teacher. Mushmallow said: even more inaccurate could be phone survey's, especially if they're conducted during the day. People who would be at home to answer those are more likely not to have a job and, by extension, more likely to be uneducated. You need to know this information before deciding to trust the results of polls. Tons of factors can introduce bias. And your proof to support this supposition is..? What exactly..? Also, logic. I also pretty much explainined why in the post. |
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Pirating_Ninja said: aloricg said: Which "belief" if I may be so bold? You have done nothing but make incorrect assumptions, both in how statistics works, as well as how information literacy as a whole works. But do go on, tell me what my "beliefs" are.And.. while touting science you just prattled off a bunch of baseless assumptions, for which you've not proof, to support your own beliefs. You believe the data is tainted to promote and agenda or something - not a random sample, poor questions, bad polling practices. None of which you have proof of. |
Mushmallow said: aloricg said: My AP statistics textbook/teacher. And your proof to support this supposition is..? What exactly..? Also, logic. I also pretty much explainined why in the post. Oo,, your AP teacher. *tries not to giggle at how absurd of a statement that is* |
| Poll responces depend on how the questions are worded. The sun DOES revolve around the earth from our perspective even though the earth orbits the sun. |
| ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣸⠋⠀⠀⠀⡄⠀⠀⡔⠀⢀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⡘⡰⠁⠘⡀⠀⠀⢠⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠁⠀⣀⠀⠀⡇⠀⡜⠈⠁⠀⢸⡈⢇⠀⠀⢣⠑⠢⢄⣇⠀⠀⠸⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⢰⡟⡀⠀⡇⡜⠀⠀⠀⠀⠘⡇⠈⢆⢰⠁⠀⠀⠀⠘⣆⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠸⠀⠀⡄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠤⢄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡼⠀⣧⠀⢿⢠⣤⣤⣬⣥⠀⠁⠀⠀⠛⢀⡒⠀⠀⠀⠘⡆⡆⠀⠀⠀⡇⠀⠀⠇⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⢵⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡰⠀⢠⠃⠱⣼⡀⣀⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⠛⠳⠶⠶⠆⡸⢀⡀⣀⢰⠀⠀⢸ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣀⣀⣀⠄⠀⠉⠁⠀⠀⢠⠃⢀⠎⠀⠀⣼⠋⠉⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠴⠢⢄⡔⣕⡍⠣⣱⢸⠀⠀⢷⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⡰⠃⢀⠎⠀⠀⡜⡨⢢⡀⠀⠀⠀⠐⣄⠀⠀⣠⠀⠀⠀⠐⢛⠽⠗⠁⠀⠁⠊⠀⡜⠸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⢀⠔⣁⡴⠃⠀⡠⡪⠊⣠⣾⣟⣷⡦⠤⣀⡈⠁⠉⢀⣀⡠⢔⠊⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⡤⡗⢀⠇⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⢀⣠⠴⢑⡨⠊⡀⠤⠚⢉⣴⣾⣿⡿⣾⣿⡇⠀⠹⣻⠛⠉⠉⢀⠠⠺⠀⠀⡀⢄⣴⣾⣧⣞⠀⡜⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠐⠒⣉⠠⠄⡂⠅⠊⠁⠀⠀⣴⣿⣿⣿⣿⣻⣿⣿⡇⠀⠀⢠⣷⣮⡍⡠⠔⢉⡇⡠⠋⠁⠀⣿⣿⣿⣿⣄⠀⠀⠀⠀ |
aloricg said: I like how you ignored that I also explained why and instead focused on insulting me. Sasuga aloricgMushmallow said: My AP statistics textbook/teacher. Also, logic. I also pretty much explainined why in the post. Oo,, your AP teacher. *tries not to giggle at how absurd of a statement that is* |
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| Believe it or not, a statistics course does teach you about statistics, polling methods, and bias. Your incredulity seems to imply that this is not the case, which makes absolutely no sense. |
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aloricg said: The burden of proof lies in the one making a claim. It is not my job to "prove" that someone's study was conducted properly, and done so to eliminate bias. It is the job of the one conducting the study to prove their findings. What would be the point of conducting a study in the first place if it was up to other's to prove their conclusion to be true? That kind of thinking is extremely backwards. Pirating_Ninja said: Which "belief" if I may be so bold? You have done nothing but make incorrect assumptions, both in how statistics works, as well as how information literacy as a whole works. But do go on, tell me what my "beliefs" are. You believe the data is tainted to promote and agenda or something - not a random sample, poor questions, bad polling practices. None of which you have proof of. As I stated earlier, accepting something as being true without any proof is blind faith. I have never been given any proof that anything in this study was conducted to eliminate bias, so why should I blindly accept it as fact? |
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| i find it amusing how some people believe in the "news", even though the information was shown to be misleading at best, and assuming that the poll was done in good faith and free from being skewed. lol at people asking critics to "prove the poll was skewed" |
| You can buy lossless digital music from your favorite Japanese artists on https://ototoy.jp/. The songs are all DRM-free and you can re-download your purchased albums as you wish. Show your support to your favorite artist if you can! ps. if you are looking for Japanese albums, you have to search it in Japanese (not romaji). Just copy and paste the name. For those who want to learn Japanese through anime Resources for learning the language |
Pirating_Ninja said: aloricg said: The burden of proof lies in the one making a claim. It is not my job to "prove" that someone's study was conducted properly, and done so to eliminate bias. It is the job of the one conducting the study to prove their findings. What would be the point of conducting a study in the first place if it was up to other's to prove their conclusion to be true? That kind of thinking is extremely backwards. You believe the data is tainted to promote and agenda or something - not a random sample, poor questions, bad polling practices. None of which you have proof of. As I stated earlier, accepting something as being true without any proof is blind faith. I have never been given any proof that anything in this study was conducted to eliminate bias, so why should I blindly accept it as fact? You're the one who made the claim. |
| I loled at the sample size. |
aloricg said: Did I? When did I claim that more than a quarter of Americans Don't know that the Solar System is Heliocentric?Pirating_Ninja said: The burden of proof lies in the one making a claim. It is not my job to "prove" that someone's study was conducted properly, and done so to eliminate bias. It is the job of the one conducting the study to prove their findings. What would be the point of conducting a study in the first place if it was up to other's to prove their conclusion to be true? That kind of thinking is extremely backwards. As I stated earlier, accepting something as being true without any proof is blind faith. I have never been given any proof that anything in this study was conducted to eliminate bias, so why should I blindly accept it as fact? You're the one who made the claim. |
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Pirating_Ninja said: aloricg said: Did I? When did I claim that more than a quarter of Americans Don't know that the Solar System is Heliocentric?You're the one who made the claim. You claimed that the data collect was incorrect, skewed, misunderstood - whatever. This is all an argument you invented. |
Pirating_Ninja said: You should know by that post if not by the ones before that he's not worth it. He's either stupid or trolling, either way he won't get it.Did I? When did I claim that more than a quarter of Americans Don't know that the Solar System is Heliocentric? |
     Short of the day: Monotonous Purgatory(MAL) ✰Public Domain Club | One Piece Club✰ |
| i am enjoying this thread. please, dont stop fighting |
aloricg said: Nonsense. I merely questioned The poll when I was given insufficient reason to see any support for the claim that the article was making. Questioning one's validity when given insufficient support for one's claim is not making a claim that the other's claim is inaccurate, but merely asking for proper proof to back up their claim. (sorry for using "claim" so much, kind of tired so going to dip out now, having trouble saying what I want to when I'm this tired =/)Pirating_Ninja said: Did I? When did I claim that more than a quarter of Americans Don't know that the Solar System is Heliocentric? You claimed that the data collect was incorrect, skewed, misunderstood - whatever. This is all an argument you invented. |
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| I think some of the people were drunk |
| ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣸⠋⠀⠀⠀⡄⠀⠀⡔⠀⢀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⡘⡰⠁⠘⡀⠀⠀⢠⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠁⠀⣀⠀⠀⡇⠀⡜⠈⠁⠀⢸⡈⢇⠀⠀⢣⠑⠢⢄⣇⠀⠀⠸⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⢰⡟⡀⠀⡇⡜⠀⠀⠀⠀⠘⡇⠈⢆⢰⠁⠀⠀⠀⠘⣆⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠸⠀⠀⡄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠤⢄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡼⠀⣧⠀⢿⢠⣤⣤⣬⣥⠀⠁⠀⠀⠛⢀⡒⠀⠀⠀⠘⡆⡆⠀⠀⠀⡇⠀⠀⠇⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⢵⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡰⠀⢠⠃⠱⣼⡀⣀⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⠛⠳⠶⠶⠆⡸⢀⡀⣀⢰⠀⠀⢸ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⣀⣀⣀⠄⠀⠉⠁⠀⠀⢠⠃⢀⠎⠀⠀⣼⠋⠉⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠴⠢⢄⡔⣕⡍⠣⣱⢸⠀⠀⢷⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⡰⠃⢀⠎⠀⠀⡜⡨⢢⡀⠀⠀⠀⠐⣄⠀⠀⣠⠀⠀⠀⠐⢛⠽⠗⠁⠀⠁⠊⠀⡜⠸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⢀⠔⣁⡴⠃⠀⡠⡪⠊⣠⣾⣟⣷⡦⠤⣀⡈⠁⠉⢀⣀⡠⢔⠊⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⡤⡗⢀⠇⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⢀⣠⠴⢑⡨⠊⡀⠤⠚⢉⣴⣾⣿⡿⣾⣿⡇⠀⠹⣻⠛⠉⠉⢀⠠⠺⠀⠀⡀⢄⣴⣾⣧⣞⠀⡜⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠐⠒⣉⠠⠄⡂⠅⠊⠁⠀⠀⣴⣿⣿⣿⣿⣻⣿⣿⡇⠀⠀⢠⣷⣮⡍⡠⠔⢉⡇⡠⠋⠁⠀⣿⣿⣿⣿⣄⠀⠀⠀⠀ |
| That's nothing.... Literally millions of Americans believe the Earth is less than 10,000 years old, evolution is 100% false, and this "god" character literally created everything in 6 days. Now THAT is lulz worthy.... |
| You know rather than argue about what the survey could have done, might have done, or might not have done....you can merely....go look. I'll give you a hint though, it does indeed span all 50 states, is conducted in person, selected randomly via the census (I won't go into the weights, look them up if interested) and English and/or Spanish language competency is required, as well as being 18 or older. NORC is a highly respected social research organization, which while this does not automatically validate a survey, it does give a certain credibility. How an article spins a study though, is beyond the scope of their responsibility, but it shouldn't be dismissed because of shoddy journalism. That being said University is a wonderful thing it really is, but people need to understand introductory classes are labeled such for a reason. I couldn't begin to count how many time's I've read "sample size is too small survey irrelevant" in some iteration on the internet, when that's usually not the problem at all. |
Only 39 percent answered correctly with "true" when asked if "The universe began with a huge explosion," That 39% was wrong because the big bang wasn't a fucking explosion. The people who made the survey aren't even scientifically literate. |
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| 2200 people = Murica okay also, if these 2200 people where dumb enough to pick up a phone and do a survey, I'm not surprised one quarter was retarded... |
| But it does |
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| If only we knew the context of these questions. Polling is a art of words more than math. Only thing to go on is the lousy sample size which you could get standing an hour in the middle of Time Square, hardly enough to qualify that as all of America. |
| "In the end the World really doesn't need a Superman. Just a Brave one" |
| these people complaining about the sample size.. that's really how it's done though. you take a small number out of a very large population and do some calculations and stuff. It's not like 1/4 of the said 2200 participants = 1/4 of the whole US. calculations were done before they arrived at those results. |
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NudeBear said: i am enjoying this thread. please, dont stop fighting Praise me. |
[i]"Yet each man kills the thing he loves, [/i]By each let this be heard, Some do it with a bitter look, Some with a flattering word, The coward does it with a kiss, The brave man with a sword!'' ~Oscar |
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by Bourmegar
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Aug 5, 2021 3:23 PM |
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» NLRB officer says Amazon violated US labor lawDesolated - Aug 3, 2021 |
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by kitsune0
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Aug 5, 2021 1:41 PM |
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» China Backs Cuba in Saying US Should Apply Sanctions To ItselfDesolated - Aug 5, 2021 |
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by Desolated
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Aug 5, 2021 1:36 PM |