Japan's Weekly Blu-ray & CD Rankings for Oct 28 - Nov 3

symbv said:
As promised I am posting this first report on Amazon Stalker sales projection estimate for 2013 Fall Anime. If I remember correctly, the first time I posted such report in summer was the first week of August, so the timings match. By now most shows have 4 to 5 episodes aired and almost all shows have BD/DVD solicited on Amazon for sufficient time for the Stalker projected sales number to be generated. This is a good time to review the performance of the shows so far at the one-third point of the cour. And here we go.

One significant observation from Japanese forums like 2ch about this cour's anime is that there are quite a lot of people saying that while they do not see a show that is overwhelmingly eye-catching and attention-grabbing, they also think the shows in this cour overall more interesting and entertaining than usual. This means that more people are following more shows than they usually do but the flipside seems to be that sales do not benefit from this broader interest from anime watchers.

In short, the performance of shows in this cour is generally weaker compared to the last 2 cours and this is visible both at the top tier and the bottom pile: We have fewer and weaker "big hits" (>10k sales) not to mention super hits that sell >20k, and we have more titles that are projected to sell below the Manabi line.

Earlier last month I predicted that the TOP FOUR bestselling titles in this cour are likely to be Infinite Stratos 2, Kuroko Basket 2, Little Busters! Refrain and Kill la Kill. I still maintain this prediction although the position of Kill la Kill is less certain since its lacklustre performance over the last 2 weeks.

I have been paying close attention at the shift in sales projection numbers in the past 2 weeks and intriguingly most of the titles never moved more than 0.3k in the projection. This indicates amazing stability most of the titles have settled down to in terms of sales ranking (and by extension popularity among the disc-buying consumers). Unfortunately almost all the hardly moving titles are those which are projected to sell below the Manabi line. The biggest shifts in sales projection all come from those at the top tier.

That said, Infinite Stratos 2 and Kuroko no Basket 2 did not actually move much since setting into around 12.5-13k (IS2 vol.2) and around 13.5-14k (KuroBas2) of projected sales. IS2 vol.1, with >15 min of extra footage and cheaper price, is going to sell a lot more than vol.2 (stalker projects 20.7k). Both have stable and sizable fanbase and both, particularly for KuroBas2, are thought to sell more than the Stalker estimate as fans are more likely to buy the discs at storefront instead of from internet retailers like Amazon. Both will also show some drop from the sales of first season but the drop does not seem to be unreasonably huge (the >30k sales of IS is always thought as an outlier performance for an anime of this genre).

For the other two titles I predicted to be among the TOP FOUR BESTSELLING of the cour, Little Busters! Refrain has seen drop of over 1.5k in projected sales over the past 2 weeks. One major reason is that it is still taking time for its ranking (and thus projected sales) to settle down. However, the current settled ranking is beyond #100 and this does not bode very well for its sales projection in the coming weeks. As the series is still in a build-up stage and the climax much expected by fans has yet to come, it may still shoot back up in ranking later. Kill la Kill also settled in a position beyond #100 in Amazon and also shed almost 2k over the past 2 weeks in projected sales. It seems that a lot of fans who got hyped and excited by the shock and awe sakuga in the early episodes have front-loaded the orders, pushing the title very high at the beginning, and as the show has settled down into more conventional and familiar pattern, the show's ranking has also rescinded. The filler-like episode 4 also contributed to the weakening performance as it failed to deliver the usual new episode boost in ranking after it aired.

Compared to the above 2 fastest dropping series, the 2 biggest winners this cour are Aoki Hagane no Arpeggio and Non Non Biyori. Aoki Hagane no Arpeggio amazingly gained almost 2k in projected sales over the past 2 weeks (>40% increase). Many fans found it to be unexpectedly entertaining, with good balance of fighting, strategy thinking and story development on the one side, and appealing and attractive moe girls on the other. Most expressed relative ease of getting into the CG without too much problem and some even found it hard to believe that they could feel so moe towards characters generated wholly by CGI. And as I previously stated in another sales thread, Aoki Hagane has very very lucky timing as it rides on the huge wave of popularity of KanColle, which also has warships manifesting as young girls and unexpectedly took Japan by storm since April this year. Non Non Biyori is the anime that I heard "much better than I expected" comments most often in forum among the series in this cour. It seems the anime has struck a chord with the audience about the simplicity and innocence appeal of the countryside, as well as the nostalgia or yearning for spending time as a child in such environment. Like KinMosa in the previous cour, there are a lot of praises about the effort and love from the staff on developing/adapting the story and providing wonderful art and animation. Its episode 4 received universal praise for making an apparently generic and cliched story powerfully touching and moving, confirming the notion that often execution matters even more than the story itself. Since that episode was aired, it added almost 1.5k to its projected sales.

One title that could not be skipped before we move to the lower tiers is Strike the Blood. Because of the late timing of its being solicited in Amazon, its sales ranking has not yet settled down. Currently it is pointing at 7.5k but I could see it will settle at a lower value, at perhaps 6k or so. Still it is substantially better than what a lot of people expected before this cour started. One key reason for its popularity is the extremely high popularity of the heroine Yukina, whom many deem to embody the perfect blend of moe, ecchi, cuteness, strength, aggressiveness and feminine coyness. The popularity of the anime also rubbed off on the sales of its original Light Novel as it boosted the sales of the volume 1 substantially more than 2 years after its publication.

After these title, there is a gap when we do not have any title with projected sales in the 4k-5.5k range. And below that the top of the middle tier is, interestingly, Valvrave 2 which got much revile back in its first season. Projected to sell at 3.9k it does not show much of a 2nd season drop. In fact so far the feedback of this 2nd season has been decisively positive. It could be because detractors in the 1st season no longer came back to check this show, but it can also be attributed to the perception by fans that the story is less crazy in springing oddball surprises but instead has calmed down and is easier to follow, even if this still means the story is quickly paced and surprises/mysteries still show up.

For the other titles above the Manabi line, Teekyuu3 maintains the 3.5k or so fan base inherited from the first 2 seasons; Yowamushi Pedal is generally deemed entertaining; Machine Doll has comparatively weak CG but compensates by eye-catchingly moe girl characters (and the addictive denpa ED), and it also has a reasonably large LN fanbase; Gundam Build Fighters is a surprising hit as a lot of people find the story to be unexpectedly interesting, the characters to be appealing (including the minor characters), and the parade of different gunpla models to be meticulous and wide ranged.

On the borderline of Manabi line, we have a bunch of anime that are popular to different extents but for some reason the popularity does not translate into good sales projection. Fans find the adaptation of the supposedly weaker Opening Chapter of White Album2 to be well done. Some even went as far to say that the story comes off better than what they remember, perhaps because back then it was overshadowed by the Closing Chapter. Kyoukai no Kanata suffers from a cast fans find not to be that interesting (particularly the heroine Mirai) and a perception that the story lacks a purpose and direction. Yet the usual high technical quality from KyoAni on background art, animation, sound and music surely keeps people watching. Yozakura Quartet gets fans' approval as a fine remake effort and receives praise of keeping a good balance of the ensemble cast and their appeal. The good action sakuga also gets good feedback.

As for the rest, Log Horizon keeps people tuned with a steady tale of entertaining encounters in MMORPG context. Freezing2 and Magi2 seems to be heading towards just around half of the sales of the last few volumes of the 1st season. Walkure Romanze took many watchers by surprise at the effort and care in the sakuga of background, horse and the jousting action. However, as a fan service anime, it also looks rather tame on that front. Blazblue sees quite a lot of watchers dropping as they perceive it to be unwelcoming to people who do not know the game. Nagi no Asukara, despite its beautiful art, does not get people enthusiastic as they deem the story to have too much emotion drama and they also find the impetuous MC definitely unappealing. SekaTsuyo, a really low budget anime, actually does a bit better than unexpected as it smartly employed well known seiyuu to voice the groaning and moaning wrestlers - apparently it really knows its niche. Yu-Sibu, Tokyo Ravens, Outbreak Company, Gingitsune seem to belong to the "good enough for people to watch but not captivating enough for them to buy" category. For the two NoitaminA shows, Galileo Donna gets praises for very good character design as well as mecha design and background art, but its story is deemed to be plodding and sometimes does not really make sense. Samurai Flemenco gets praise for its eccentric humor but tokusatsu comedy is also considered very much a niche market for BD/DVD sales.

For those with <1k of projected sales, Tesagure! actually did better than expected. The CGI-based characters turned out to be quite acceptable. The rookie seiyuu do a reasonably good job, especially in the ad-lib part of the episode, although the humor, either in the scripted or the ad-lib part, could be a hit-or-miss affair. Coppelion has people complaining about the blue-tinged background and the thick-line bordered character design. Also many find the story not that interesting and wonder about its direction. Some had their expectation set by the action-filled OP and were disappointed by lack of tense or thrilling actions thus far. Meganebu sees people drop out in droves as early as episode 2 as many people view the whole premise to be rather pointless, and it is definitely not moe enough for the targeted female audience either.


13.6k KuroBas2
12.5k IS2 (vol.1 20.7)

9.4k LB! Refrain
7.7k Kill la Kill
7.5k Strike the Blood
6.5k Aoki Hagane no Arpeggio
5.5k Non Non Biyori

3.9k Valvrave2
3.4k Teekyuu3
3.3k Yowamushi Pedal
3.1k Machine Doll
3.0k Gundam BF

2.9k White Album2
2.7k Kyoukai no Kanata
2.7k Yozakura
2.4k Log Horizon
2.3k Freezing2
2.2k Magi2
2.0k Kyousougiga (vol.0 2.4)
1.9k Walkure Romanze
1.9k Blazblue
1.8k Yu-Sibu
1.8k Tokyo Ravens
1.7k Nagi no Asukara
1.6k Outbreak Company
1.5k Gingitsune
1.4k SekaTsuyo
1.2k Samurai Flemenco
1.1k Galileo Donna
1.1k Golden Time
1.0k NouCome
0.9k Tesagure!
0.6k Coppelion
0.5k Meganebu