Japan's Weekly Blu-ray & CD Rankings for Dec 2 - Dec 8

rederoin said:
So now NNB's estimation went up to 6.1k. Thats good news.

Hahalollawl said:


Now for what I wanted to say. I'm pretty disappointed with the way it seems like things are going saleswise for this (fall) season. In my opinion, there are quite a few shows that I think are at least decent and I would think should have decent sales numbers (like 3k+, if you want an arbitrary number). There are more decent/good shows in terms of quantity, in my opinion, than I think there have been in the recent past seasons.

phoenixalia said:


I agree with most of what you've said here. Fall 2013 is one of the if not the best season of this year imo. I would like Nagi no Asukara and Samumenco to at least break 3k. Loads of good shows but they're just not popular with the disc buying audience. Well, I also have to brush up on this but yeah, one of the weakest seasons, especially compared to Fall 2012. Hopefully the good winter shows have good sales.

Xinception said:


I feel that Winter 2014 is stronger compared to Winter 2013. Probably due to a Shueisha + Shaft show (Nisekoi!!!), Chuunibyo S2 (Yay!!!), Sakura Trick (hyped Yuri anime that I will definitely watch because yuri is for real men) and a good slew of enjoyable shows in general. And hey, Sailor Moon remake is coming :P.

Spring 2014 is just like Spring 2013 IMO. I just checked Anichart for the titles, and wow:

• Akuma Riddle (Dang, dat poster. Dat yuri.)
  
  
• JoJo 3: Stardust Crusader (Jojo. Will. Always. Sell)
  
  
• Love Live S2 (Course!)
  
  
• Kagerou Days The Anime (I'd like to call it that, cause I'm too lazy to memorize its name; Definitely a top seller of that season)
  
  
• Haikyuu (Shueisha's next sport series that fujoshis will love and buy?)
  
  
• Bunch of other good shows that I'll not list to save space in this thread
  

Hahalollawl said:

Yes, I know (my opinion of) quality doesn't automatically equate to financial success. But still (correct me if I'm wrong), based on what I've seen, it seems like the numbers overall for this season are not even similar to the recent seasons, but LOWER than usual. This is puzzling and perhaps a bit frustrating. Why are so many shows doing so poorly? Are they doing something wrong? Have they not put the right extras or whatever to attract purchases? Or are my preferences just so far from the modern day anime purchasing community?

Yause said:


Putting aside viewer opinions on shows, I think we have to observe several more seasons to say if it's a blip or a trend.

At any rate, recent demand for home video has been high for two main reasons: the rise of social media and the DVD to BD transition. I don't know much about the former, but the BD effect is bound to dissipate sooner or later. It happened with DVDs (market bubble and subsequent overproduction of anime) - people purchase more when they've invested in new equipment, but the novelty and compulsion to buy declines over time.

Hahalollawl said:


Hmmm...an interesting point. I guess I hadn't really considered the possibility that there might be significant effect from BDs losing a bit of their novelty. However, a more significant sample probably is, as you note, necessary in order to say with confidence that there is a trend.

Hoppy said:


It'll be a long while before BDs go extinct though, the only route Japan has is streaming for a replacement medium as I doubt they are too welcome of any other of form of digital distribution. Heck the West shows dislike at digital downloads of movies but is welcome to Hulu and Netflix.

jmal said:

You're mixing up collecting and viewing.

Streaming is for viewing, not for owning. Streaming would be a challenge to television, not to BDs.

BDs, in the case of anime sold in Japan, are for owning. They are intended for the biggest fans of a show (given their price). It is expected that far, far, far, far more people watch a show on TV or elsewhere than will buy it.

BD sales and streaming have no relationship now or for the foreseeable future. Fall sales are simply down because there are less shows that people are interested in buying - that seems like the least presumptuous conclusion. Some potential heavy hitters either dropped from previous seasons or didn't materialize into major hits, and the low end of sales is quite low again, like Summer. This is just my anecdotal experience of course, but I imported 6 shows in Winter, 6 in Spring, 7 in Summer, and as of now I'm only importing 2 in Fall. There are some other reasons why it's lower for me, but 4 would be the max I'd go this season even if I wanted to buy more.

Also as a general caution, be careful about extrapolating broad trends from a single season or year. Saying "Since disc sales isn't as reliable of an income as it was before" without any caveats of explanation is pretty provocative. Reliable compared to when? How exactly do sales this year compare to last year and if it's lower, why do you think this isn't temporary? And so on.

Kaioshin_Sama said:
I legitimately do not get why some people think Kyousougiga is gods gift to anime. especially after the two most recent episodes, but it does seem to deserve better than it's estimate based on the visual creativity and ambition it showed in it's first half alone.

StopDropAndBowl said:

I don't think it's God's gift to anime, but I really do like the show and think it deserves way better. It's very creative, very original, and has a kind of warm sweetness and youthful freshness that I really enjoy.

Farbeit for me to determine what other people should buy, but I do wish the buying viewer was less focused on buying the same kinds of things, over and over and over, and a little more willing to take a risk.

hpulley said:
^^^ That just doesn't happen with anime, like, ever... I still find it a bit odd that even if the first disc doesn't come out until after all the episodes have aired people in Japan still make up their mind well before the final episode. So it just isn't going to happen. That ship has sailed and you can't jump off the dock and swim to it, just no way.

jmal said:

Anime is way too expensive to "take risks". Though I don't think it's a matter of risk-taking in tastes, so much as risk taking in purchases. If someone liked 15 shows in a season, they can still probably only afford one (we're talking anywhere from $300-1000 per show here so a lot of people can't afford any). So they may very well enjoy Kyousougiga, but if there's something else in a genre they tend to like more then, well, that gets the purchase.

It's important to separate "what people watch" and "what people like" from "what people buy". Each of those is a smaller subset of the one before, especially in the case of the last.

Hahalollawl said:


I feel like they could be more free to "take risks" if the economic model that they followed weren't so heavily dependent on disc sales for its success. But I suppose that is the way the market has evolved...

I actually think it could be interesting if anime became more focused on streaming shows (ONAs?) and then selling the BD/DVDs (with extras etc.) for those shows rather than going through the tv networks. Maybe if all the studios band together to create one website that streams every anime, and maybe they could then sell their discs directly through that website? I don't know if that's financially feasible, but based on an article I read it sounded like TV networks don't really want to spend much money on new anime anyways when they can create cheap talk shows or whatever, so why not circumvent tv networks altogether? Also, then you don't have to get stuck with a super late time slot right? Meh, there's probably some reason this hasn't happened yet right?

ichii_1 said:
Is the new naruto opening not included int Oricon chart or is it counted in next years chart?
It sold almost double the amount of snk's amount.

jmal said:

I'm not aware of any evidence that division of disc revenue is spread any more equitably among committee members than division of other revenue streams such as novels or games or figures or whatnot. Every production committee will draw up its own unique contracts among members so it's impossible to generalize of course. I can't say if you're right or wrong, because your guess is as good as mine here, but barring any evidence I'll assume all revenue streams are handled in roughly similar ways.

We tend to think of video discs as being special because 1. they're the thing we have the best, most complete data on and 2. they "feel" like the most direct manifestation of an anime in purchasable form. I mean, they are the show, while other items are "just related products". But that's just the bias of our perspective. To a business contract, it's not necessarily relevant.

Hahalollawl said:


I feel like they could be more free to "take risks" if the economic model that they followed weren't so heavily dependent on disc sales for its success. But I suppose that is the way the market has evolved...

I actually think it could be interesting if anime became more focused on streaming shows (ONAs?) and then selling the BD/DVDs (with extras etc.) for those shows rather than going through the tv networks. Maybe if all the studios band together to create one website that streams every anime, and maybe they could then sell their discs directly through that website? I don't know if that's financially feasible, but based on an article I read it sounded like TV networks don't really want to spend much money on new anime anyways when they can create cheap talk shows or whatever, so why not circumvent tv networks altogether? Also, then you don't have to get stuck with a super late time slot right? Meh, there's probably some reason this hasn't happened yet right?

Hahalollawl said:
To add to that, if you are an investor who has invested in the creation of something, it seems difficult to believe that you would accept not getting any percentage of the sales of the most direct physical manifestation of that thing (in this case, the discs). In other words, it seems difficult to believe that anyone who invested in the creation of an anime would get no benefit at all from the disc sales. While it's possible, I think it would be surprising.

And I didn't mean to suggest that everyone benefits equally, but rather that everyone who invests benefits. I guess it's kind of confusing but my use of "same way" is not intended to refer to equality, but rather benefiting all members in the
"same way" as disc sales. It seems more reasonable that certain members of a production committee would not benefit from other revenue streams (e.g. merchandise) particularly if they did not invest directly in its creation rather than not benefiting from something they did invest directly in (the show itself). This is speculative though, as we don't know for sure how the revenues are distributed. But it seems to make reasonable logical sense, not that everything is necessarily logical...

rederoin said:
NNB just peaked at 31#. Its looking good.

scytheavatar said:


The anime industry isn't that much different from the movie industry, all everyone cares about is a Haruhi/Bakemonogatari/SAO/Madoka/Attack on Titan hit which'll make everyone swim in so much money that all the money wasted on the other non-hits are insignificant. It's a long term thing, you invest in tens of series and much of the investments are going to not reap returns in the short term, but it doesn't matter if you have enough hits keeping you afloat. ASCII Mediaworks hoped for a Toradora level of hit when they funded Golden Time, but even if they didn't get one they had a huge hit this year in Hataraku Maō-sama, so they probably won't care too much about the investment.

Hahalollawl said:


I guess...but I hope it doesn't discourage them from making more series like Golden Time...I guess it was a risk making a series with characters that are older than high school age, and...well...I guess I would have liked to have seen that kind of risk taking rewarded.

jmal said:

Mmm, I think this exaggerates the case too much. While major hits are important, and I've said as much before, and they can make up for a lot of less successful shows, it's not like they're "all everyone cares about" in the industry.

Especially if you're one of the many companies that's only involved in a couple productions in a year. There is a core of large companies that fund many many different shows in a year, but there's a long tail of smaller companies that are very unlikely to be involved in blockbusters in any given year and if they are, it'll probably be as a minor investor.

I mean, Earth Star Entertainment for example led the committee on four of their properties, none of which was a major hit: Mangirl!, Teekyuu season 2, Teekyuu season 3, Yama no Susume. The biggest hit there was Yama no Susume, which sold 4.2k in a one-shot release. Obviously ESE's business model doesn't involve any expectation of Madoka/Shingeki/Bake level sales. And this will be true for the majority of companies funding anime.

You could maybe argue that blockbusters drive a small handful of very large companies who handle the video distribution piece, such as Aniplex, Pony Canyon, and King Records but even then I'm hesitant to put it as unambiguously as you did. I think it's more complex than that, and multiple small investments that yield modest returns are as important as gambling big on a flagship title or crossing your fingers and hoping for a shock hit like Garupan.

Hahalollawl said:


Yeah I agree. I think "all everyone cares about" is an exaggeration as well. I'd like to make the case you make with perhaps a slightly different twist.

If all that mattered were the major hits, then I think you would ONLY have very large anime companies (e.g. Sunrise) because they would be the companies best equipped to absorb the losses of flops and continue to gamble on trying to make that next hit. Smaller companies would probably go bankrupt because they can't afford to take as many risks, so if they have a few flops in a row they would be in serious trouble. I think the reason that some of the smaller companies can stay in business is because modest successes do still make a difference.

Kaioshin_Sama said:


A lot of shows are subsidized by producers like Aniplex as well as TV companies as well so if a show flops they are often more than equipped to take the hit and move on. Really the whole production committee model evolved out of necessity and seems to work well enough at keeping the smaller companies in business and generating content.

Kaioshin_Sama said:


A show about cute girls doing cute things charting well?! Hold on there pardner! Stop the Presses cause we've clearly entered the Twilight Zone!

rederoin said:

So thats why KKK only sold 500~ copies, and Yuyushiki only average'd 3k.

Or all those cute girl shows who flopped, its because they do so well!

jmal said:
-snip-

rederoin said:

So thats why KKK only sold 500~ copies, and Yuyushiki only average'd 3k.

Or all those cute girl shows who flopped, its because they do so well!

Kaioshin_Sama said:


I admittedly don't even know what KKK is, but that points to there probably just being a lot of low key SoL series I never knew about that under-performed. If those really are the numbers listed above though then wow that genre is a lot less successful than I ever would have thought. I guess it really just is stuff like K-On that makes it big. When people announce those kinds of shows successes they really damn well announce them so I always assumed the genre was a surefire thing.

Also we're disqualifying any show that has idols in it like Love Live and Idolmaster though so that cuts into the numbers as well.

As an aside observation I thought those kinds of people that buy 5 copies of the exact same disc to prove a point where only the stuff of myth and legend.

Kaioshin_Sama said:
volume 1 with the event ticket should finally enter the overall top 100 at the very least

kuuderes_shadow said:


***,*92位/***,103位 ★ (**2,167 pt) [*,*10予約] 2014/01/08 境界の彼方 (1)
^ consider it done.

Yowamushi Pedal also having a (considerably stronger) last minute surge.

And non non biyori is the top thing coming out on christmas day. Which is quite an achievement considering that the competition includes monogatari, madoka, code geass, love live, macross and kurobas

jmal said:

All in all this looks pretty typical of a show that had a good reception later on, which convinced some buyers who were on the fence to go ahead and get it

Kaioshin_Sama said:


Which is literally exactly how I told people it was going to end up playing out.

jmal said:
Your historical revisionism is amusing. As is your ability to leave out every imaginable piece of context that shows how utterly, utterly clueless and biased you were.

rederoin said:

No, you told us it would average above 5k.

Its 'final boost' isen't even as big as some other Autumn shows.

jmal said:

Which was after he finally gave up on predicting brimstone and hellfire if it were one of the top sellers of the season.

Clearly it has nothing to do with people, I dunno, just genuinely enjoying the show and its direction. Who the hell would base a purchasing decision off of that, am I right?

Kaioshin_Sama said:
I said the show would get a massive boost on the last episode regardless of how it turned out and that's pretty much what we're seeing happen. Considering shows like Arpeggio though unless we really are just seeing the tip of the iceberg right now my bet is a lost cause. Don't forget it's only like 6 AM in Japan after all.

Kaioshin_Sama said:
Anime buyers aren't rational people though. We're talking about fanatics that will buy multiple of the same copy to support their favorite companies or genres.

jmal said:
Yes I would assume that people buy entertainment because it entertains them. I must be fucking crazy, yo.

Also in before averaging like 4k is trumpeted as somehow validating nutjob conspiracy theories (that were revised almost every week) about an animation studio being immune to market forces and given special treatment. Yes it's as nonsensical as it sounds to any rational human being reading these words.

Welcome to the twilight zone, kids.

Progeusz said:
Barely scratching top100 is nowhere close to massive boost. GJ-bu was ~#100 for some weeks and didn't sell well.

KnK started doing better because it GOT better. Nothing more to that. It still can't be considered good overall and so will be the case with its sales. Nothing wrong with the world. Stop accusing others of making excuses (which aren't excuses because back then everyone said there is a possibility KnK will do better than predicted at time - however won't suddenly become top-seller which you claimed at first, or even get anywhere near TOP FOUR) when you're backpedaling every week. Also, I have yet to hear why are you behaving as if top100 anime was worth anything despite me asking you this question several times over past few months.

Progeusz said:
Gotta make the most out of anecdotal evidence you heard last week, eh?

jmal said:

I am going to be so displeased if evil holiday thresholds keep Non Non Biyori from ranking on DVD.

Top 200 DVD for the holidays pls, Oricon.

jmal said:
Today I learned that buying multiple copies of a disc is normal and not just the extreme rare minority of cases.

Oh wait no, it is an extreme rare minority. Even someone who imports as much as I do has done it once ever (two of Yuyushiki, because it's phenomenal) for a full show, and will do it once more in Winter (or at least plan to, provided they don't mess the show up). Out of, uh... well over 100 series imported.

Yet another boring attempt to delegitimize people with different taste as being lesser fans. Who the hell buys a show, let alone multiple times, without enjoying it? Would that we all had the free cash lying around to flush down the toilet like that.

Edit: then while I'm typing you admit it's an extreme minority, ignoring the fact that that fundamentally undermines your whole argument about where the (pretty limited) sales in the second half of the series are coming from. An argument that would still be dumb anyway with the whole "oh you don't /actually/ enjoy it" implication. And even more fundamentally dumb because the show is still not on track for hit sales making the whole discussion moot. lol wow. I guess I'll just leave you to do all the work of unraveling your own arguments some more.