YoungVagabond said: You're assuming this is true because of what the anime production companies have done, but it can well be wrong. In fact, as an economist, I can tell you that the supply and demand curves would have to be pretty unusual and exotic for this to be true. Japanese production committees have experimented with lower prices and generally find they lose money. That's because the demand for anime in Japan is highly inelastic. That doesn't make the demand curve "exotic" as far as I know. Sales outside Japan were more price sensitive, which gave rise to the boxset model of series distribution by American licensors. Remember that anime was originally sold in the West using the same model as in Japan with releases of 2-4 episodes per disc. Viz's release of Hikaru no Go is a stunning example of such logic gone awry. The entire series covered 74 episodes, but Viz sold them in four-episode instalments. Americans simply weren't going to shell out hundreds of dollars for a cartoon about boys who like to play Go. I think the market in the US is becoming less price elastic over time. In any season nearly all releases appear on streaming services from Crunchyroll and Funimation, and illegal streaming and other forms of piracy account for the rest. That's why Aniplex has taken a "Japanese" approach to pricing in the US. They realize full well that the audience for physical discs is largely composed of a small group of collectors whose demand curve is also fairly inelastic. I see lots of complaints about the pricing for Madoka and Kill la Kill, but I also see a number of people saying they'll pay it anyway because they want to own the products. On the other hand, there are many posters on this site who think paying to watch anime is "stupid" because you can watch it for free and don't seem to care about legality or compensating the talent. That just forces the licensors to target the shrinking collector market and drives prices upward. |
SeijiSensei said: i've heard that before, but no actual examples :< YoungVagabond said: You're assuming this is true because of what the anime production companies have done, but it can well be wrong. In fact, as an economist, I can tell you that the supply and demand curves would have to be pretty unusual and exotic for this to be true. Japanese production committees have experimented with lower prices and generally find they lose money. now that this thread has been bumped, it's a good moment to share this piece of news about big licensing costs http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2012-01-30/adv-court-documents-reveal-amounts-paid-for-29-anime-titles |
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FGAU1912 said: SolviteSekai said: they still cant be streamed or legally downloaded ans peoople say Japan are behind If you compare Japan to a country like Sweden it's like Japan is still in the middle ages. |
| Japan has superior meatballs |
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hybreezy said: Best message ever.Japan has superior meatballs |
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| [quote=SeijiSensei] YoungVagabond said: That just forces the licensors to target the shrinking collector market and drives prices upward. You are now going to have to prove this is true. |
kokkoderrisch said: FGAU1912 said: ans peoople say Japan are behind If you compare Japan to a country like Sweden it's like Japan is still in the middle ages. If you want to know what's worse, digital music media in Japan is dead or close to it. |
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SeijiSensei said: YoungVagabond said: You're assuming this is true because of what the anime production companies have done, but it can well be wrong. In fact, as an economist, I can tell you that the supply and demand curves would have to be pretty unusual and exotic for this to be true. Japanese production committees have experimented with lower prices and generally find they lose money. That's because the demand for anime in Japan is highly inelastic. That doesn't make the demand curve "exotic" as far as I know. Do you have the specific numbers on this? A link to an article stating this? And yes, the demand curve being that inelastic to price change is precisely what I meant by "exotic". SeijiSensei said: I see lots of complaints about the pricing for Madoka and Kill la Kill, but I also see a number of people saying they'll pay it anyway because they want to own the products. On the other hand, there are many posters on this site who think paying to watch anime is "stupid" because you can watch it for free and don't seem to care about legality or compensating the talent. That just forces the licensors to target the shrinking collector market and drives prices upward. You're confusing cause and effect here. What drives up piracy more than anything else? Horrible distribution and absurdly overpriced products. What reduces piracy? Quality distribution with reasonable pricing models. Anywho, I would definitely love to learn more about Japanese production committees experimenting with lower prices. I have not heard or read about this before. |
Hulmy-chan said: If you realize there's not that many anime fans in Japan as you thinkUdgey said: Too busy animating tits and panties to care about their western OR eastern fanbase. Just a studio pandering to those money throwing otakus. Implying that those fanbases don't enjoy tits and panties. |
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Udgey said: there are*Hulmy-chan said: If you realize there's not that many anime fans in Japan as you thinkImplying that those fanbases don't enjoy tits and panties. |
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FGAU1912 said: Hoppy said: If you want to know what's worse, digital music media in Japan is dead or close to it. Oricon dies not count digital sales ti my knowing that is why its not counted It could also be the reason digital music formats are dying there. Buyers want the CD and know for sure that they are supporting the artists. |
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YoungVagabond said: This article by a well-connected industry figure may shed some light on the situation:Do you have the specific numbers on this? A link to an article stating this? And yes, the demand curve being that inelastic to price change is precisely what I meant by "exotic". http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/feature/2012-03-07 YoungVagabond said: And yet, 15-20 years ago, anime was much more expensive in North America (after adjusting for inflation, per-episode prices are ~20% of what they used to be), but sold more and turned a better profit, even for marginal/second-tier anime. The main difference was that piracy mainly consisted of VHS tapes distributed via snail-mail or via direct copies made at anime clubs, which was an expensive, time-consuming process that invariably resulted in degraded quality over time. Whereas now, you can easily obtain high-quality copies via torrents, IRC, or DDLs with the press of a few buttons, or quasi-reasonable quality on illegal streaming sites... with virtually no time, expense (beyond an Internet connection and storage space), or effort involved. And now, sales are mostly unimpressive, even for shows generally considered good.You're confusing cause and effect here. What drives up piracy more than anything else? Horrible distribution and absurdly overpriced products. What reduces piracy? Quality distribution with reasonable pricing models. Coincidence? |
on FGAU1912 said: How is Japan compared to Sweden in the middle ages? Japan is the leading country in technology and it has one of the best working infrastructures in the world.Hoppy said: If you want to know what's worse, digital music media in Japan is dead or close to it. Oricon dies not count digital sales ti my knowing that is why its not counted |
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Zalis said: YoungVagabond said: This article by a well-connected industry figure may shed some light on the situation:Do you have the specific numbers on this? A link to an article stating this? And yes, the demand curve being that inelastic to price change is precisely what I meant by "exotic". http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/feature/2012-03-07 An interesting albeit very oversimplified article. However, it's completely irrelevant to the question you quoted. Nowhere does it mention SeijiSensei's claim about an experiment where Japanese production companies tried selling DVDs for cheaper prices in either the domestic or foreign market. (The latter being the one under discussion) Zalis said: [/QUOTE]YoungVagabond said: And yet, 15-20 years ago, anime was much more expensive in North America (after adjusting for inflation, per-episode prices are ~20% of what they used to be), but sold more and turned a better profit, even for marginal/second-tier anime. The main difference was that piracy mainly consisted of VHS tapes distributed via snail-mail or via direct copies made at anime clubs, which was an expensive, time-consuming process that invariably resulted in degraded quality over time. Whereas now, you can easily obtain high-quality copies via torrents, IRC, or DDLs with the press of a few buttons, or quasi-reasonable quality on illegal streaming sites... with virtually no time, expense (beyond an Internet connection and storage space), or effort involved. And now, sales are mostly unimpressive, even for shows generally considered good.You're confusing cause and effect here. What drives up piracy more than anything else? Horrible distribution and absurdly overpriced products. What reduces piracy? Quality distribution with reasonable pricing models. Coincidence? I don't even know where to begin. For starters, blaming the success/failure of an entire industry that has undergone massive transformation and numerous changes in technology to a single factor (piracy) is beyond reductionist. (It also ignores that other industries effected even more by piracy are booming, like video games) Secondly, yes, anime cost a lot more 15-20 years ago, and had terrible distribution. So did everything else, especially factoring in inflation. VHS live action movies and television series in the US cost a fortune. A single Super Nintendo Cartridge cost the equivalent of $117 in today's currency. But while all those other industries improved massively, anime improved only marginally, and that is why foreign sales aren't impressive and that is why people prefer piracy. If you're having difficulty understanding, consider the following simplified example. DVD box set A costs $200, and DVD box set B costs $200. The price of A then goes down to $167 while B goes down to $26. What are people going to overwhelmingly buy? Of course, according to Zalis, the dwindling popularity of A would be due solely to piracy, as opposed to its piss-poor quality relative to a competitor. These numbers weren't pulled randomly, either. In my last reply to you, I noted that the first season of Kaiji, with an incorrect description, no clue whether it has dubs, subs or by whom, and what quality the DVD was started at $167. Meanwhile, a well-produced DVD of season 1 of Boardwalk Empire, with a host of special features, and in-depth description, cost $26. But sure, the only reason the Kaiji DVD didn't sell was "piracy". You sound like someone working for the RIAA in the early 2000s. |
| I suggest reading this post by relentlessflame over at Suki for a start: http://forums.animesuki.com/showthread.php?p=4386974#post4386974 Keep in mind that anime is actually a tiny niche market. If a show currently sells 6 volumes at 7140 yen for 5,000 copies/vol. (a good, but not great amount), that's 214,200,000 yen (about $2.7 million) gross revenue, of which they may get something like 50-60% after various middlemen take their cut. Let's say you reduced the price to the North American standard price of $60 USD for a season boxset. You'd have to sell about 45,000 copies of the boxset just to make the same amount of money. Are there really that many people in Japan who want to own anime on Blu-Ray for your average show, when you have 20-30+ new anime airing each season? I think that's quite doubtful. You may have some shows that reach that threshold, but a lot of others who would end up in the doldrums, and so make even less money. If your show has, let's say, 1000 hardcore fans, doing it this way means that you're least going to get maybe $0.5 million in gross revenue, whereas at American prices, you would only get about $60k. Horrible. Even if you imagine that more would purchase a show at the cheaper price, it takes so many more to make up for it. One other factor I forgot to mention was the Japanese reliance on rentals over purchases. When Beta and VHS videos first appeared in the US market, they often cost upwards of $100. Most people rented videos, and because of the "first-sale doctrine," producers could not participate in those downstream revenues. So they sold tapes at very high prices since most of their purchasers were video stores. Even today many Japanese viewers rent rather than buy because they live in smaller homes with less space available to store collections of discs and tapes. In a market where rental is dominant, pricing is set to maximize income from the rental stores who are doing most of the purchasing. |
SeijiSenseiOct 10, 2014 8:49 AM
YoungVagabond said: You clearly missed this paragraph: An interesting albeit very oversimplified article. However, it's completely irrelevant to the question you quoted. Nowhere does it mention SeijiSensei's claim about an experiment where Japanese production companies tried selling DVDs for cheaper prices in either the domestic or foreign market. (The latter being the one under discussion) Justin said: Foreign prices have always been cheaper than Japanese prices; even Aniplex USA's prices are around 25% or less of Japanese prices, and Japanese companies allow Sentai/Funi/etc. to sell their discs at even more of a discount off Japanese pricing.But the fans proved them wrong. Otaku of all kinds (not just anime fans) started buying the videotapes and laserdiscs, and they bought them at those high prices that were intended just for video stores. There was no reason to lower it. In fact, there were a few experiments to drop the price to a more affordable amount, but that usually resulted in a slight increase in sales -- not enough to make up for the drop in revenue. YoungVagabond said: Yes, there have been numerous changes in technology... that allow piracy to be easier and better quality. To be fair, there have been technological improvements that have allowed companies to release better and cheaper products, from the VHS->DVD transition that let them sell "2 audio tracks for the price of 1" (but dub-haters still complained and kept on pirating), better dub recording software, better disc authoring, better marketing through social media and such, and streaming platforms to let people legally see shows as they air in Japan and sample products before they buy. Yet those improvements haven't helped the industry keep the same success they had 10-15 years ago.I don't even know where to begin. For starters, blaming the success/failure of an entire industry that has undergone massive transformation and numerous changes in technology to a single factor (piracy) is beyond reductionist. And yes, there's been massive transformation... in the form of companies closing down and cutting back because their sales are declining or flatlining despite more people being interested in the shows they're selling. (an aside on video games: ) But while all those other industries improved massively, anime improved only marginally, and that is why foreign sales aren't impressive and that is why people prefer piracy. Anime is still a niche industry, as indicated by SeijiSensei's quote, and no matter what improvements the industry makes (80% reduction in per-episode prices over time, less-localized translations, accessible streaming platforms for currently-airing shows), it's never good enough for the fans who keep moving the goalposts every time. As I've said earlier, with other industries like games, music, and US movies/TV, what you get from piracy is the same as what you get from legal distribution, but many anime fans tend to prefer the pirate presentation of anime over the legitimate presentation of anime. DVD/Blu-Ray rips that use the disc image subtitles "as is" generally aren't as popular as fansubs and fansub-esque text-based subtitles.If you're having difficulty understanding, consider the following simplified example. Are the shows actually competitors, in terms of genre, plots, character types? What about the actual qualities of the shows themselves? If price were all that mattered, why would anything more expensive than, say, Duck Dynasty Season 6 ever sell at all? Now, I can concede that piracy is not the one and only reason for the industry's decline. There is a recession, stagnating wages, and student loan overhead to contend with. But piracy offers the most substantial explanation for why sales are flat or declining in an era when exposure to (via TV, downloads, and legal or illegal streams) and interest in anime, as well as convention attendance, are steadily increasing. Even the smaller convention I staff at in a non-major city is projected to show a 1500% increase over its first year in 2004. And if thousands of fans can afford to fly or drive great distances, stay in expensive hotels, and put together elaborate cosplays for conventions on almost every weekend of the year, surely they can scrape together a few cents for some Blu-Rays every once in a while. They just choose not to.DVD box set A costs $200, and DVD box set B costs $200. The price of A then goes down to $167 while B goes down to $26. What are people going to overwhelmingly buy? Of course, according to Zalis, the dwindling popularity of A would be due solely to piracy, as opposed to its piss-poor quality relative to a competitor. These numbers weren't pulled randomly, either. In my last reply to you, I noted that the first season of Kaiji, with an incorrect description, no clue whether it has dubs, subs or by whom, and what quality the DVD was started at $167. Meanwhile, a well-produced DVD of season 1 of Boardwalk Empire, with a host of special features, and in-depth description, cost $26. I think it's pretty disingenuous to use an obvious bootleg ("All Regions" is a dead giveaway, and it hasn't been licensed for a North American disc release) as an example of what the legitimate anime industry is offering. If you look at an actual listing, it's still considerably cheaper than what the Japanese 13-volume single-DVD price would've been ($700-$900), and Google Translate shows that the description is at least for the right series.But sure, the only reason the Kaiji DVD didn't sell was "piracy". You sound like someone working for the RIAA in the early 2000s. Plus, comparing anime to American TV shows that are financed by advertising or premium-channel subscriptions is an apples-to-oranges situation. People (in theory) pay HBO for the privilege of watching Boardwalk Empire, and the disc releases are largely an afterthought that can be dumped out cheaply. Anime studios pay TV stations to air late-night anime, and rely on disc sales to recoup their costs and hopefully turn enough profit to subsidize worse-selling shows and stay in business. That's why the discs remain more expensive on both sides of the Pacific. But just to be clear, I'm not a 100% hardcore anti-pirate. I participate in the consumption and creation of downloadable anime. But I do think that fans have to make sacrifices, put their money where their mouth is, and buy the shows they love if they want to keep the system healthy and prevent more drops in the quality, quantity, and variety of anime available. |
SeijiSensei said: I suggest reading this post by relentlessflame over at Suki for a start: http://forums.animesuki.com/showthread.php?p=4386974#post4386974 Again, you're confusing cause and effect. Guess what happens when you make prices exorbitantly high for a product? You create a niche industry! If tomorrow, every romantic comedy movie DVD was priced at $100 or more, that would quickly become a "niche industry", too. Y You still haven't mentioned the "experiment" the producers tried with lower prices, let alone the specific numbers. I will reply in full detail to Zalis's post later, as it's quite long. |
Zalis said: YoungVagabond said: You clearly missed this paragraph: An interesting albeit very oversimplified article. However, it's completely irrelevant to the question you quoted. Nowhere does it mention SeijiSensei's claim about an experiment where Japanese production companies tried selling DVDs for cheaper prices in either the domestic or foreign market. (The latter being the one under discussion) Justin said: But the fans proved them wrong. Otaku of all kinds (not just anime fans) started buying the videotapes and laserdiscs, and they bought them at those high prices that were intended just for video stores. There was no reason to lower it. In fact, there were a few experiments to drop the price to a more affordable amount, but that usually resulted in a slight increase in sales -- not enough to make up for the drop in revenue. No, I didn't miss it. It was the exact same thing SeijiSensei wrote; a vague claim with zero factual support. No specific numbers, date, names, or figures. This might convince an uncritical, layman reader, but not someone who researches similar phenomena for a living. Zalis said: Foreign prices have always been cheaper than Japanese prices; even Aniplex USA's prices are around 25% or less of Japanese prices, and Japanese companies allow Sentai/Funi/etc. to sell their discs at even more of a discount off Japanese pricing. Which still isn't good enough, especially compared to their competitors. Zalis said: Yes, there have been numerous changes in technology... that allow piracy to be easier and better quality. To be fair, there have been technological improvements that have allowed companies to release better and cheaper products, from the VHS->DVD transition that let them sell "2 audio tracks for the price of 1" (but dub-haters still complained and kept on pirating), better dub recording software, better disc authoring, better marketing through social media and such, and streaming platforms to let people legally see shows as they air in Japan and sample products before they buy. Yet those improvements haven't helped the industry keep the same success they had 10-15 years ago. Right...because their rivals have improved way, way more. For an even simpler analogy, it's like a 25 year-old complaining that he is smarter than he was at 12, when teachers complimented his intelligence, but adults nowadays think he is pretty dumb! Zalis said: (an aside on video games: ) I don't know if I'd apply the "booming" label to an industry that relies on big-budget formulaic blockbuster/AAA titles and endless sequels, much like Hollywood without the reboots. Either that, or success comes from Pavlovian addiction engines like Candy Crush. Do we really want that microtransaction business model applied to anime? "To see more schoolgirl skin / extended swordfights, please pay $2.95!" Whereas in the more-expensive, less-pirated SNES era, you could have small teams creating a diverse array of games on lower budgets and still getting decent sales. I don't blame you, since we started discussing a completely different subject, for not knowing much about video game industry economics, but this is almost completely wrong. For starters, the Triple A's and microtransaction cow clickers are NOT doing well right now. There have been a bunch of Triple A flops recently, and studios are more leery than ever of them. The microtransaction cow clicker subgenre has almost completely crashed. Zynga (who created/plagiarized to make Farmville, Words with Friends, etc.) had to lay off over half their staff and are presently on life support. What has boomed, however, are PC games and particularly indie games...a platform and subgenre which have been and continue to be the targets of massive piracy. Zalis said: Anime is still a niche industry, as indicated by SeijiSensei's quote, I replied to him about that. He is confusing cause and effect. Zalis said: and no matter what improvements the industry makes (80% reduction in per-episode prices over time, less-localized translations, accessible streaming platforms for currently-airing shows), it's never good enough for the fans who keep moving the goalposts every time. This is sheer conjecture and assumption. You might be right. You might be completely wrong. You haven't provided any facts or reasons besides your personal opinion. And until anime at least gets its distribution to where it isn't vastly worse than a live action TV series DVD, we won't know the answer to it. Zalis said: As I've said earlier, with other industries like games, music, and US movies/TV, what you get from piracy is the same as what you get from legal distribution, but many anime fans tend to prefer the pirate presentation of anime over the legitimate presentation of anime. DVD/Blu-Ray rips that use the disc image subtitles "as is" generally aren't as popular as fansubs and fansub-esque text-based subtitles. Even if I assume this is completely true (and there seems to be little besides scant anecdotal evidence for it), this is once again a distribution problem. If they can't offer a superior product to freaking fansub pirates doing this for free, then their product sucks. Zalis said: Are the shows actually competitors, in terms of genre, plots, character types? What about the actual qualities of the shows themselves? This is a very narrow view of competition. Really, any two entertainment products are competitors with one another. Yes, a music CD is competing with an indie game is competing with a UFC PPV for your attention and consumer dollar. In this case, it's far more direct. Both are television shows distributed via DVD. Anecdotally, there are a lot of people on MAL who I talk to about live action television shows. Zalis said: If price were all that mattered, why would anything more expensive than, say, Duck Dynasty Season 6 ever sell at all? You're attacking a strawman here. No one said that price is all that mattered. Moreover, I noted a lot more problems with the Kaiji DVD relative to the Boardwalk Empire DVD than simply the price. Zalis said: But piracy offers the most substantial explanation for why sales are flat or declining in an era when exposure to (via TV, downloads, and legal or illegal streams) and interest in anime, as well as convention attendance, are steadily increasing. No, it's the simplest and laziest explanation. An explanation that requires no real work, research, or a desire to improve. Piracy is a distribution problem. If anime studios fix their woeful distribution, they will see a massive decrease in piracy. By your own admission, their current product is so awful that most people actually prefer fansubs to official subs. Their anime DVDs have descriptions of completely different works on Amazon. The Amazon page gives no description of what the DVD offers or contains. The DVDs are, frequently, horribly produced. A DVD of a show I would love to buy started at $167 plus shipping for the same amount of content that top-tier US live action shows cost $26. (I know this isn't true of every show, particularly the more popular ones, which I discuss below) By the way, a show like Boardwalk Empire costs $10-$20 million PER EPISODE, or $130-$260 million in a season, when anime costs a whopping $2-$4 million for 13 episodes, so this "they need to cover their high overhead" excuse in the animenewsnetwork link is utter bullshit. Zalis said: Even the smaller convention I staff at in a non-major city is projected to show a 1500% increase over its first year in 2004. Every single such point you bring up, if taken at face value, is screaming to me "ANIME HAS A HUGE DISTRIBUTION PROBLEM! ANIME HAS A HUGE DISTRIBUTION PROBLEM!" Zalis said: And if thousands of fans can afford to fly or drive great distances, stay in expensive hotels, and put together elaborate cosplays for conventions on almost every weekend of the year, surely they can scrape together a few cents for some Blu-Rays every once in a while. They just choose not to. Have you ever asked yourself why? Human beings are economic, mostly rational agents. I will answer you; because in the first instance, they see a net benefit, whereas in the latter, they see a net negative. I actually see this as an opportunity; if fans are passionate enough to shell out hundreds or even thousands of dollars to attend conventions, then fuck yeah they're passionate enough to buy a high-quality, well-produced DVD or Blu-Ray, so long as it doesn't suck and makes them feel ripped off. Also, "scrape together a few cents for some Blue-Rays" is woefully disingenuous. We just established that a low-end DVD from 7 years ago would cost $167. Now admittedly, it's not this bad for all series. For popular series, this situation is massively better. However, even following this link; http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_c_0_11?url=search-alias%3Dmovies-tv&field-keywords=anime%20blu%20ray&sprefix=anime+blue-%2Caps%2C259 it's still very expensive. And some of those prices made me laugh. Zalis said: I think it's pretty disingenuous to use an obvious bootleg ("All Regions" is a dead giveaway, and it hasn't been licensed for a North American disc release) as an example of what the legitimate anime industry is offering. See, I don't know that! (And apparently, neither does Amazon!) All I know is that one of my favorite shows seems to only be available on Amazon for an exorbitant price. Zalis said: Plus, comparing anime to American TV shows that are financed by advertising or premium-channel subscriptions is an apples-to-oranges situation. I agree. But as noted above, you're ignoring that Boardwalk Empire is over 50 times more expensive than any anime show to produce. Zalis said: But just to be clear, I'm not a 100% hardcore anti-pirate. I participate in the consumption and creation of downloadable anime. But I do think that fans have to make sacrifices, put their money where their mouth is, and buy the shows they love if they want to keep the system healthy and prevent more drops in the quality, quantity, and variety of anime available. One of my problems with the third part of the article series you linked to was how black and white it was, and I see that in your thinking, too. People aren't simply "pirates" or "consumers". Most have done both. Most "pirates", if they see a good deal, will gladly pay for anime, per your own quotes above. And many "consumers", if offered really shitty deals, or having been burned in the past, will resort to piracy. |
YoungVagabond said: Again, you're confusing cause and effect. Guess what happens when you make prices exorbitantly high for a product? You create a niche industry! If pricing made anime a niche industry, then ratings for free-to-view late-night anime series would be much higher than they actually are. Most late-night shows, the ones people here generally watch, draw ratings in the 0.5-2.0% range because the Japanese audience for anime is a lot smaller than Western fans believe it to be. Just the fact that the production committees have to buy time from the networks to show their programming is a good indication of the narrow appeal of anime in Japan. As for "proof," Sevakis has been working in the anime industry for a very long time and has good relations with the Japanese producers. I believe him when he says that there have been attempts at price cuts with little added return. Oh, and if you want proof about anime ratings, you can find a vast archive of ratings here: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.geocities.jp%2Fanimesityouritu%2F Sometimes it feels like you are bouncing back and forth between the Japanese market and the market for anime in the West. I'm talking about Japan throughout since that's where the focus of your original question seemed to be. |
SeijiSenseiOct 11, 2014 6:29 AM
SeijiSensei said: YoungVagabond said: Again, you're confusing cause and effect. Guess what happens when you make prices exorbitantly high for a product? You create a niche industry! If pricing made anime a niche industry, then ratings for free-to-view late-night anime series would be much higher than they actually are. Most late-night shows, the ones people here generally watch, draw ratings in the 0.5-2.0% range because the Japanese audience for anime is a lot smaller than Western fans believe it to be. Just the fact that the production committees have to buy time from the networks to show their programming is a good indication of the narrow appeal of anime in Japan. Okay, this is interesting. Can you translate the 0.5-2.0% into number of viewers? And what are the estimates for the number of Western viewers of anime? SeijiSensei said: As for "proof," Sevakis has been working in the anime industry for a very long time and has good relations with the Japanese producers. I believe him when he says that there have been attempts at price cuts with little added return. As I explained to Zalis, an appeal to authority followed by "trust me, this guy knows what he is talking about!" might work for politicians and be enough for a layperson who hates thinking about numbers, but not for someone who is an economist for a living. I want to know about these supposed experiments; when they occurred, with what properties, what the original price was, how much they reduced the price by, how long, what the sales data was, etc. A good scientist never believes a statement on faith alone. We leave that to religion. SeijiSensei said: Sometimes it feels like you are bouncing back and forth between the Japanese market and the market for anime in the West. I'm talking about Japan throughout since that's where the focus of your original question seemed to be. I should have made this clearer, yes. While I'm obviously interested in both markets, I'm more curious about their pricing and distribution in the Western market. I realize that Japan is its own weird kettle of fish and the price of many of their goods are completely out of whack with what one is used to in the West. |
YoungVagabond said: Okay, this is interesting. Can you translate the 0.5-2.0% into number of viewers? And what are the estimates for the number of Western viewers of anime? According to http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/nenkan/1431-02.htm, there are about 50 million households in Japan. So a program that reaches 1% of households was viewed in about 500,000 homes. In the US, you could take a look at the figures that [adult swim] reports. I don't recall exactly, but I think some shows have audiences in the 1-2 million range. Along with the ratings data, I recommend the compilation of Japanese sales data maintained at AnimeSuki: http://forums.animesuki.com/showthread.php?t=109699 As I explained to Zalis, an appeal to authority followed by "trust me, this guy knows what he is talking about!" might work for politicians and be enough for a layperson who hates thinking about numbers, but not for someone who is an economist for a living. I want to know about these supposed experiments; when they occurred, with what properties, what the original price was, how much they reduced the price by, how long, what the sales data was, etc. No one is going to tell you that. I wouldn't reveal these data publicly if I were running a production committee pricing anime in a competitive environment. Would you? If you're interested in pursuing this further, I suggest you post a question to Sevakis in his "Answerman" column at ANN. |
| Shows like Sazae-San, One Piece and Naruto run in "family-friendly" timeslots and so have larger audiences. The size of their audiences have little bearing on the viewership for late-night anime, which is what most of us here watch. As I said before, a strong late-night performer might garner a 2 rating; mainstream shows get double-digit ratings. |
ymmt said: If the companies are able to monetize by ways other than distribution of their product, this shouldn't be such a big problem Production committees have many avenues for additional revenue beyond disc sales. In general, most adaptations of manga, light novels, and games are designed to promote the original works as much as sell discs. Most shows also earn money from sales of licensed merchandise and OST and OP/ED CDs. |
SeijiSensei said: YoungVagabond said: Okay, this is interesting. Can you translate the 0.5-2.0% into number of viewers? And what are the estimates for the number of Western viewers of anime? According to http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/nenkan/1431-02.htm, there are about 50 million households in Japan. So a program that reaches 1% of households was viewed in about 500,000 homes. So 1% would correlate to perhaps 1 million people, of which they're very happy to get even 5,000 (or half a percent!) buying DVDs. That's an awful buy rate. Usually, it's at least 2%, which would correlate to 20,000 buys. In the US, you could take a look at the figures that [adult swim] reports. I don't recall exactly, but I think some shows have audiences in the 1-2 million range. SeijiSensei said: No one is going to tell you that. I wouldn't reveal these data publicly if I were running a production committee pricing anime in a competitive environment. Would you? I would, in fact! Revealing data from a supposedly failed experiment completed several years ago isn't a big deal, especially considering that there is nothing stopping rival companies from replicating/investigating it themselves. This is not a patent or some difficult to obtain data. By the way, working as a researcher, I have obtained far more "sensitive" data than this from much bigger companies than an anime production committee. SeijiSensei said: If you're interested in pursuing this further, I suggest you post a question to Sevakis in his "Answerman" column at ANN. With all due respect to Mr. Sevakis, considering some of the fantastically dumb things he wrote about the industry and consumers, his knowledge of the economics side of the industry is very low. He might be an expert on promotion/production, but not what I'm interested in, sadly. |
YoungVagabond said: In the US, you could take a look at the figures that [adult swim] reports. I don't recall exactly, but I think some shows have audiences in the 1-2 million range. That many viewers and they only show it one night a week? |
YoungVagabond said: I would, in fact! Revealing data from a supposedly failed experiment completed several years ago isn't a big deal, especially considering that there is nothing stopping rival companies from replicating/investigating it themselves. This is not a patent or some difficult to obtain data. My sense is that Japanese companies are much more closed-mouthed about anything having to do with their business practices. Drunk_Samurai said: That many viewers and they only show it one night a week? They probably get more viewers for reruns of American cartoons. However if you're curious, you should visit the forums at Turner for [as] where I've seen viewership figures reported. I haven't looked at them for quite a while now. |
YoungVagabond said: Well, if you're convinced that Sevakis is a fabricator and refuse to engage with him for the numbers you want because of vague and unspecified "fantastically dumb things" he's written, there's pretty much nothing more I can say on the matter. Though I do know of one case where a Japanese company stopped selling a series as singles and switched to a set for the second half of a show at a slightly cheaper price. As far as I know, it didn't set any records or even salvage the series' fortunes in the market.SeijiSensei said: With all due respect to Mr. Sevakis, considering some of the fantastically dumb things he wrote about the industry and consumers, his knowledge of the economics side of the industry is very low. He might be an expert on promotion/production, but not what I'm interested in, sadly.If you're interested in pursuing this further, I suggest you post a question to Sevakis in his "Answerman" column at ANN. YoungVagabond said: If it isn't black and white, it's "Very Dark Grey and Slightly Off-White." I do see people at more industry-centric sites like Fandompost and AnimeNewsNetwork who watch almost everything legally through discs and legal streams, and only resort to illegal means for rare/obscure shows that slip through the cracks. (And historically for newly-airing anime they had to see, before official streaming became viable.) And as I said before, I participate in the creation and viewing of downloadable anime, in addition to buying a pretty substantial collection.One of my problems with the third part of the article series you linked to was how black and white it was, and I see that in your thinking, too. People aren't simply "pirates" or "consumers". Most have done both. Most "pirates", if they see a good deal, will gladly pay for anime, per your own quotes above. And many "consumers", if offered really shitty deals, or having been burned in the past, will resort to piracy. But if you look at "do you buy anime?" threads like this recent one, you'll find that "doing both" usually means "I think I rented a Pokemon DVD back in 1999, but since then a pirate's life is the life for me lol." And then most of the thread is PostCount+1 quote-chain spam of A said: Then there's other communities like /a/ and various torrent sites where even the suggestion that people should buy anime is treated with ridicule and contempt. Not to mention that many browsers and downloaders don't even understand the concept of retail releases, i.e. that ripping groups can't release uncensored or dual-audio versions until the discs come out, and have no idea where to even find information about those disc releases.I just download and watch on illegal streaming sites, I don't buy anime ever. That's why I'm skeptical that a DTO service like the one the OP suggests will ever work, because so many people see anime as so inherently worthless that any non-zero price is too much. (Or even the time-sacrifice of watching ads is too burdensome to watch CR and other free legal streams.) Scratch that; that any price greater than zero is too much, according to people like this guy who apparently thinks the industry should pay his rent or something in exchange for him watching their entertainment products for free. If he's not trolling, anyway. |
Zalis said: YoungVagabond said: Well, if you're convinced that Sevakis is a fabricator and refuse to engage with him for the numbers you want because of vague and unspecified "fantastically dumb things" he's written, there's pretty much nothing more I can say on the matter.With all due respect to Mr. Sevakis, considering some of the fantastically dumb things he wrote about the industry and consumers, his knowledge of the economics side of the industry is very low. He might be an expert on promotion/production, but not what I'm interested in, sadly. I never once called him a "fabricator" or remotely implied such. Rather, I simply don't think he is well-versed on the financial ins and outs of the industry. He might be exceptionally knowledgeable about promotion, creation, corporate hierarchy, etc. but when it comes to finance, there are specific things he wrote that betray an ignorance of basic economics. For instance, would you ask a statistician at Pfizer to explain the biochemical pathways of their most recent patented drug? Zalis said: Though I do know of one case where a Japanese company stopped selling a series as singles and switched to a set for the second half of a show at a slightly cheaper price. As far as I know, it didn't set any records or even salvage the series' fortunes in the market. Do you have the actual sales data for the series, before and after? That's what I'm interested in, not vague statements about it not changing the series' fortunes. Also, anyone who thinks that a different pricing model, especially one implemented as a panic move in the middle of distribution, would turn an unsuccessful show into a popular one is insane. Zalis said: If it isn't black and white, it's "Very Dark Grey and Slightly Off-White." I do see people at more industry-centric sites like Fandompost and AnimeNewsNetwork who watch almost everything legally through discs and legal streams, and only resort to illegal means for rare/obscure shows that slip through the cracks. (And historically for newly-airing anime they had to see, before official streaming became viable.) And as I said before, I participate in the creation and viewing of downloadable anime, in addition to buying a pretty substantial collection. But if you look at "do you buy anime?" threads like this recent one, you'll find that "doing both" usually means "I think I rented a Pokemon DVD back in 1999, but since then a pirate's life is the life for me lol." And then most of the thread is PostCount+1 quote-chain spam of A said: Then there's other communities like /a/ and various torrent sites where even the suggestion that people should buy anime is treated with ridicule and contempt. Not to mention that many browsers and downloaders don't even understand the concept of retail releases, i.e. that ripping groups can't release uncensored or dual-audio versions until the discs come out, and have no idea where to even find information about those disc releases.I just download and watch on illegal streaming sites, I don't buy anime ever. Several points; 1. You can't treat dumb topics on MAL or /a/ as being representative of the entire fanbase. Even assuming people there are being complete honest with themselves and others (I'm recalling a gaming petition to boycott the newest Call of Duty game where over half the people signing it were busy playing the game on release day), it's a very small portion of the potential consumers. 2. Again, you ignore that piracy is even more entrenched in gaming, particularly in PC gaming, and particularly in the country I was born in, Russia. Like, the level of piracy there would make anyone here blush. Yet, not only are there successful games and developers there, but companies have managed to greatly boost sales in Russia through better, more innovative pricing models. This was a territory that many financial experts felt should be abandoned, since piracy was on a level unimaginable in the US. And yet, through better pricing models, many games attained tremendous success there. 3. Related to the first point, you're confusing cause and effect, as SeijiSensei did. Why do so many people on those sites look down upon official DVD releases and traditional forms of distribution? Well, because they suck! Were they improved, these attitudes would change, even among those claiming they "would never" stoop to paying for anime. Zalis said: Scratch that; that any price greater than zero is too much, according to people like this guy who apparently thinks the industry should pay his rent or something in exchange for him watching their entertainment products for free. If he's not trolling, anyway. Aside from the fact that nowhere does he indicate what you claim ("the industry doesn't support me" can mean many things), skepticism regarding a superior economic approach stemming from a dumb forum post that may or may not even be honest for that one individual seems silly, no? |
Zalis said: Hej! Even if they hate on dubs and Crunchyroll, /a/ is pretty aware of how anime works. That's where i first learned about bd sales and all that, and they have regular threads about this. I even saw 2 threads about BD unboxing of seasonal shows, and they certainly weren't 'treated with ridicule and comtempt'.Then there's other communities like /a/ and various torrent sites where even the suggestion that people should buy anime is treated with ridicule and contempt. Not to mention that many browsers and downloaders don't even understand the concept of retail releases, i.e. that ripping groups can't release uncensored or dual-audio versions until the discs come out, and have no idea where to even find information about those disc releases. |
|
| Fist Japanese have this close mentality. Japan had closed borders for how many centuries? Second they are afraid of the risk change they will have to take. The prices they charge are ridiculous because they have a model that sells to a specific selected market(otakus, fujoshi etc) that is willing to pay anything instead of a mass market. They are in a safe zone kind of way where they just do something and have those buying at crazy prices without having to risk making a product with the consideration of pleasing mass audience and having to make profit by actually getting many sales instead of a few expensive ones. When you need to sell in mass to make profit you have the chance to make bigger profits but you also have the chance to end up with bigger damage and they are risk averted as fuck. |
MonadOct 14, 2014 4:15 AM
YoungVagabond said: Good for the Russian game industry I guess, but if the anime industry has to lower prices so much that they're selling at a loss (i.e. not making enough to cover bandwidth and localization costs), they're not going to find a DTO model worthwhile. The OP never said what an acceptable price would be, but I have to presume it's less than the ~$2-7 per episode pricing on North American discs. 2. Again, you ignore that piracy is even more entrenched in gaming, particularly in PC gaming, and particularly in the country I was born in, Russia. Like, the level of piracy there would make anyone here blush. Yet, not only are there successful games and developers there, but companies have managed to greatly boost sales in Russia through better, more innovative pricing models. This was a territory that many financial experts felt should be abandoned, since piracy was on a level unimaginable in the US. And yet, through better pricing models, many games attained tremendous success there. And the Steam-model supporters are ignoring the presentation differences between games and anime. With games, you get the same game whether you download it illegally, download it legally, or buy a physical copy. But with anime, the hardcore pirates have become accustomed to certain styles of translation, typesetting standards, and sometimes frills like karaoke effects. Shifting to paid downloads isn't going to change that. Even if companies alter their subtitling practices, they'll still run into roadblocks like font licensing. So it's inevitable that we'll hear, "Oh, they failed to use the exact matching font for that sign at 17:38 in episode 22, these official downloads suck, I'm going back to pirating." And that's part of a broader trend... 3. Related to the first point, you're confusing cause and effect, as SeijiSensei did. Why do so many people on those sites look down upon official DVD releases and traditional forms of distribution? Well, because they suck! Official releases and release methods "suck" because they're constantly being redefined to fall into the realm of suckage. For instance, the color yellow was once a perfectly acceptable color for subtitles until about 2003 or so, but it suddenly became "eyecancer" when fansubbers stopped using it. Did human physiology change or evolve overnight? I don't think so, but it provided a great excuse to hate on DVD subtitles right when BitTorrent distribution was first taking off. There's also all the never-ending localization quibbles, which are impossible to resolve in a way that pleases everybody.Were they improved, these attitudes would change, even among those claiming they "would never" stoop to paying for anime. Or more specifically, let's take a look at the treatment of the font Trebuchet MS. In the past, when fansubbers used it, it was acceptable and unremarkable. But after it started being used by CrunchyRoll, it suddenly became "quite shit." So that's why I'm suspicious of all the "the industry just has to improve, the pirates will come around" statements -- every time the industry changes or improves, the goalposts get moved and whatever the industry does is redefined to be bad in the quest to justify continued piracy. Romagia said: Was that a North American or otherwise non-Japanese BD box, or a Japanese release? I didn't mean to lump /a/ in with the non-knowledgeable masses (thinking more of commenters on streaming and fansub sites), but they do seem to be rather anti-Western-industry, whether it be dubs, CR/streaming sites, or official discs/subs. And while they may celebrate people who do decide to buy (the right kinds of?) disc releases, I don't think they take kindly to the suggestion that anyone should buy overseas releases or stream legally instead of or in addition to downloading. If I'm wrong, please correct me, but they seem to hold all North American companies in contempt, not just CR.Hej! Even if they hate on dubs and Crunchyroll, /a/ is pretty aware of how anime works. That's where i first learned about bd sales and all that, and they have regular threads about this. I even saw 2 threads about BD unboxing of seasonal shows, and they certainly weren't 'treated with ridicule and comtempt'. |
Zalis said: YoungVagabond said: Good for the Russian game industry I guess, but if the anime industry has to lower prices so much that they're selling at a loss (i.e. not making enough to cover bandwidth and localization costs), they're not going to find a DTO model worthwhile. The OP never said what an acceptable price would be, but I have to presume it's less than the ~$2-7 per episode pricing on North American discs. 2. Again, you ignore that piracy is even more entrenched in gaming, particularly in PC gaming, and particularly in the country I was born in, Russia. Like, the level of piracy there would make anyone here blush. Yet, not only are there successful games and developers there, but companies have managed to greatly boost sales in Russia through better, more innovative pricing models. This was a territory that many financial experts felt should be abandoned, since piracy was on a level unimaginable in the US. And yet, through better pricing models, many games attained tremendous success there. If I knew the precise pricing models that would work, I would be a business mogul/economic savant worth hundreds of millions. But there are many changes and alternatives available to the industry besides what they have tried. I would love to know the data on the experiments they have supposedly attempted but there are many other approaches for them to investigate. Some, to their credit, which they are. By the way, $7 for a half-hour episode is laughably awful. Zalis said: And the Steam-model supporters are ignoring the presentation differences between games and anime. With games, you get the same game whether you download it illegally, download it legally, or buy a physical copy. But with anime, the hardcore pirates have become accustomed to certain styles of translation, typesetting standards, and sometimes frills like karaoke effects. Once again, this means the distribution companies are putting out a horrible product, when amateur pirates produce additional frills consumers find more impressive than the professional release. Zalis said: Even if companies alter their subtitling practices, they'll still run into roadblocks like font licensing. What would the roadblocks for font licensing be? Who would be constructing said roadblocks? Zalis said: Official releases and release methods "suck" because they're constantly being redefined to fall into the realm of suckage. This is an overly pessimistic attitude (anime fans just happen to be the worst, most ungrateful freeloaders of all time AS WELL AS unique snowflakes for whom the regular rules of economics don't apply to) that requires a lot of evidence to back up. I tend to believe that pirating anime fans aren't much different than pirates of any other medium. And like this, if the distribution is improved, piracy goes down. It's been true for every other medium in existence, including those where piracy is far worse and culturally ingrained...I doubt anime is the exception. Zalis said: Or more specifically, let's take a look at the treatment of the font Trebuchet MS. In the past, when fansubbers used it, it was acceptable and unremarkable. But after it started being used by CrunchyRoll, it suddenly became "quite shit." A single blog post that over half the people in the comments disagreed with is a sign that everyone in the community suddenly hated a font only because CrunchyRoll started using it? Come on. This isn't even a case of "correlation doesn't imply causation", but more like "small, semi-random coincidences that might possibly, maybe constitute mild correlation don't imply causation". Zalis said: So that's why I'm suspicious of all the "the industry just has to improve, the pirates will come around" statements -- every time the industry changes or improves, the goalposts get moved and whatever the industry does is redefined to be bad in the quest to justify continued piracy. This is true of every medium. As technology improves, so do people's expectations. Back in the day, you weren't even allowed to listen to songs on a record before you bought it. Record labels claimed terrestrial radio would cause the death of music as an industry. By modern standards, this is all completely ludicrous. Anime simply hasn't adapted as well as other mediums have. And no, I don't view the majority of the fanbase in the same black-and-white, harsh terms you do. |
SeijiSensei said: They probably get more viewers for reruns of American cartoons. However if you're curious, you should visit the forums at Turner for [as] where I've seen viewership figures reported. I haven't looked at them for quite a while now. Well it has always been an issue with them. They wanted to start making more money from original shows so they killed anime airing to Saturday only even when many people had watched anime every night. |
| During broadcast they get barely any money so they have to use the blu rays to pay for them. Your not their primary target audience but people who care and have the money/are willing to save up for an expensive boxset of their fav show. |
 Anime is good, fucking deal with it. |
black1blade said: During broadcast they get barely any money so they have to use the blu rays to pay for them. Your not their primary target audience but people who care and have the money/are willing to save up for an expensive boxset of their fav show. Blame them not showing enough commercials. |
| They show the same amount of commercials but it's a niche product. Otaku's are looked down on in Japan too. |
Anime is good, fucking deal with it. |
| Yeah I know but (for me) when someone says anime I think about late night anime because that's the majority of the stuff I like to watch. |
Anime is good, fucking deal with it. |
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