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Sequel effect is real, but not in the way you are thinking.

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Jan 3, 2021 10:32 PM
#1

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Oct 2013
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When I just join the site a user told me about sequel effect, and explain to me the reason the sequel of a series is rated higher than the prequel is because the users that didn't like the prequel drop the series thus less haters means the score for the sequel increases right? And when I quickly thought about it, I thought it was hypothetically sound and make perfect sense.

But one day I decide to look at the stats for my favourite series attack on titan season 1 and compare it with the most loved anime full metal alchemist and so I compare the scores of users that didn't like both series.

So I take a look at users that score between 1-6/10 and these are users that don't really like the series or you can say the haters and I know 5/10 and 6/10 aren't really consider bad score but because the percentage of 1-4/10 votes were so low I had to include those two just so the numbers can be a little beefy, it was too low. lol

Attack on titan season 1 https://myanimelist.net/anime/16498/Shingeki_no_Kyojin/stats

Users that score it between 1-6/10 is 7.4%

Compare to fmab https://myanimelist.net/anime/5114/Fullmetal_Alchemist__Brotherhood/stats

users that score it between 1-6/10 is 3.1%

So I was looking at this and thinking if the percentage is not that big of a difference why is the score difference so huge?

Then I looked up and saw the 8/10-10/10 scores and that's when I had a eureka moment and realize that the reason why fmab is where its at compare to snk season 1 is simply because it has a big percentage of viewers that watch the series and think it is a 10/10 including myself. literally 50% of the viewers and its second best score which is a 9/10 is 28% compare to snk where its highest percentage of voters think its a 9/10 with 28% and the remaining majority 8/10 and 10/10 going head to head with 25% each.

So think of this, if those 8/10 users which is 25% decide to all change their score to a 10/10 instead, snk season 1 would easily be at 2nd place and it would have basically the same amount of 10/10 percentage as full metal alchemist and this is without changing any of the other scores, so all the haters are still there and when you think about it you realize the lower percentage numbers are insignificant and their effects on the overall score is Negotiable.

These users that didn't like season 1, were never the ones responsible of the scores and their effect does little to the overall score, but the ones that dictates the scores are the users for attack on titan season 1 case (as this varies for each series) that rate between 8/10 to 10/10 to some extend 7/10 have some effects too with its 12.5% but the 8/10-10/10 scorers make up 80.1% of the score and they are the ones that decide what will be first season of attack on titan score.

So if you think about it, this theory of how sequel effect works false right on its face and I brought this up as this is what most users believe and its understandable why most persons would think that as it sounds like it make sense and not something to futher investigate on, but if you dig deeper you realize that is not the case, it is something that is so obvious but at the same time something that is easy to not notice.


Now its time to branch out to the true sequel effect and I believe the real sequel effect is users liking the sequel more than the prequel because of how stories are generally structured, so for example the prequel would be the one to introduce the characters and setting up/building the foundation for what is to come in the future, I'm not saying all users like sequels more than prequels, but I think the vast majority love sequels more than prequels because that is when the setting up is finish and we are now in the meaty part of the story, the conflict of the story and where the exciting or the most popular phrase the "hype moments are at".

So I think that is the reason why generally sequels are rated higher, I don't have any statistics to back up my claim, but I think for any story teller they would want the meaty part of the story to be the best part or it wouldn't make any sense to have all this build up to something that is inferior to the build up?

So in the end it sounds simple, but a sequel is generally rated higher than a prequel because the vast majority felt the sequel is better and that goes hand in hand in what I said in how stories are structured in the first place which will more or less make sequels more liked in generally than its predecessor.

I am interesting to here what you all think, feel free to share your opinion.

tldr users that score between 1-6 are the minority meaning their score does little to affect the overall scores, which means the bigger percentage of scorers are the ones that decide how a series is ranked, so saying a sequel has a higher ratings because the "haters" are gone is completely false as they had little to no effect from the first season which means they too will have little to no effect if all of those "haters" or users that simple dislike any prequel series decided to watch all the sequels.

The real sequel effect is basically how stories are structures, prequels is mostly the set up while the sequels will have the meaty part of the series aka the hype moments the climax etc, hence why the majority of viewers generally like the sequel of most series, hence why most sequels on this site is rated higher and not for the reason you thought as I have pointed out.


@SeekingChaos
keragammingJan 3, 2021 10:48 PM
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Jan 3, 2021 10:43 PM
#2

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Its a theory among many I think. There is the flip side. This site has no checks and balances the rating system is an honour system. So yes people who dislike the first season may never watch season 2 ever.....doesnt mean they didnt hate the first season, or think the fans of that show are stupid, hate the hype it gets, the press it gets, the attention it gets I mean to them it is the worst show ever made....they can still rate it though with out ever watching a second of it.

In a system where that isnt allowed magically I think the sequel theory would hold strong.

The other downside is hype and expectations. The people who really loved season 1 want more, they crave it....it was amazing the greatest anime drug ever. Sadly like most drugs the second high is rarely as good as the first. Whats that saying? Users are always chasing their first high. So they get disappointed, the hype lets them down the anticipation makes it feel like it can never be good enough. So they rated season 1 a 10 and even if season 2 is as good or close they may even rate it an 8 or something because of that disappointment.

I dont watch anime that falls into super niche often which are the ones that will get more bad ratings. Ratings are so arbitrary on sites like this no one should care. Mine are completely for my own reference and I am curious when I watch something a second time if I would rate it the same again. You cant account for the human part of rating very easily because it has a lot of emotion involved.

-Ecliptix-Jan 3, 2021 10:47 PM
Jan 3, 2021 10:44 PM
#3

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I agree with pretty much everything you mention here , but doesn't this contradict what you said here?

https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1885502&show=150#msg61559457


Or maybe I'm missing something
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Jan 3, 2021 10:52 PM
#4
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In MAL case, in my opinion,



In short, they only different because airing time
in my opinion
PlayayJan 3, 2021 10:58 PM
Jan 3, 2021 11:08 PM
#5
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If MAL's scores are calculated by a true mean, your conclusion that users rating 1-6 not having as much of an effect is mathematically incorrect. Also maybe you shouldn't use FMAB as a comparison. We all know what happens with its scores.

You are correct that the sequel usually being more climactic is a factor, or multiple things may happen that may lead the sequel to be less liked. But in general the sequel effect as we know it (sequels having higher scores because people that didn't like the first will not watch the sequel) is true.
Jan 3, 2021 11:08 PM
#6

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SeekingChaos said:
I agree with pretty much everything you mention here , but doesn't this contradict what you said here?

https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1885502&show=150#msg61559457


Or maybe I'm missing something


No it doesn't as that user is saying that they should combine all the score from these sequels, so and get a total aggregate score after you combine them.

I pointed out that this is unfair to the sequel series and for series like fmab and hxh 2011 for example is a big advantage, which is why I pointed out that if fmab and hxh 2011 where to be split up into seasons like snk and the other sequels, they too would get a lower overall score when you combine the aggregate as the earlier arcs for those were consider to be weak and there scorers were like 8.30 in the first and second arc of those series so the score would drop tremendously if they were to be combine.

I was simple showing him that full adaptation has its advantages too.



-Ecliptix- said:
Its a theory among many I think. There is the flip side. This site has no checks and balances the rating system is an honour system. So yes people who dislike the first season may never watch season 2 ever.....doesnt mean they didnt hate the first season, or think the fans of that show are stupid, hate the hype it gets, the press it gets, the attention it gets I mean to them it is the worst show ever made....they can still rate it though with out ever watching a second of it.

In a system where that isnt allowed magically I think the sequel theory would hold strong.

The other downside is hype and expectations. The people who really loved season 1 want more, they crave it....it was amazing the greatest anime drug ever. Sadly like most drugs the second high is rarely as good as the first. Whats that saying? Users are always chasing their first high. So they get disappointed, the hype lets them down the anticipation makes it feel like it can never be good enough. So they rated season 1 a 10 and even if season 2 is as good or close they may even rate it an 8 or something because of that disappointment.

I dont watch anime that falls into super niche often which are the ones that will get more bad ratings. Ratings are so arbitrary on sites like this no one should care. Mine are completely for my own reference and I am curious when I watch something a second time if I would rate it the same again. You cant account for the human part of rating very easily because it has a lot of emotion involved.



Its a theory among many I think. There is the flip side. This site has no checks and balances the rating system is an honour system. So yes people who dislike the first season may never watch season 2 ever.....doesnt mean they didnt hate the first season, or think the fans of that show are stupid, hate the hype it gets, the press it gets, the attention it gets I mean to them it is the worst show ever made....they can still rate it though with out ever watching a second of it.

In a system where that isnt allowed magically I think the sequel theory would hold strong.


I get what you are saying but whether these users score the sequels are not doesn't make a difference as generally, 7/10-10/10 is what most mal users score their series, which iin truth cause a inflation and that is why even the really bad series that are rated 6.00 and above is still not a bad score if you think about it, but because of inflation anything lower than 8 here on mal is considered to be a bad score.


I dont watch anime that falls into super niche often which are the ones that will get more bad ratings. Ratings are so arbitrary on sites like this no one should care. Mine are completely for my own reference and I am curious when I watch something a second time if I would rate it the same again. You cant account for the human part of rating very easily because it has a lot of emotion involved.

I agree with this it is complicating, people criticize mal scoring system and its ranking but the truth is, is there really a better method that will give us a objective ranking? I don't think so no matter the system each users have their different ways of scoring, their bias etc finding objectivity in this sense will never happen. If your favourite series is at the top you will like the ranking, if not you will dislike the ranking at the end of the day the best thing can do is give users an idea on what the general anime fandom likes and give recommendation to anime fans, so I think rankings are important in that aspect.

_FRB_ said:
If MAL's scores are calculated by a true mean, your conclusion that users rating 1-6 not having as much of an effect is mathematically incorrect. Also maybe you shouldn't use FMAB as a comparison. We all know what happens with its scores.

You are correct that the sequel usually being more climactic is a factor, or multiple things may happen that may lead the sequel to be less liked. But in general the sequel effect as we know it (sequels having higher scores because people that didn't like the first will not watch the sequel) is true.


I literally gave you an example that if those 8/10 users that is 25% decide to change their score to a 10/10 snk would jump right to second place despite these haters still being there, so basically the low scores are not what decide if a series is rated 5,6,7,8, or 9. The majority rule, its like a vote. the haters are 7.1% compare to everyone else that is 80.1% now tell me who has the more power here?

So if haters could not stop or have any effect to stop snk season 1 from being second if those 8/10 scorers change their score to 10/10, why would it have any effects for future sequel either.

The point I making is that the haters percentage wise is so low that in reality they don't affect the scores as much, I literally gave you the example without removing any of the haters from the stats that snk can easily be #2.
keragammingJan 3, 2021 11:20 PM
Jan 3, 2021 11:24 PM
#7

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There's no reason both can't be true, no?

The reason people accept the typical theory is because it seems entirely logical. If someone doesn't like the first season, they likely wouldn't watch the later seasons. You can even somewhat see this with SnK's stats, yes there are more 8-10s in the later seasons, but there are also less 1-5s as well.

I have the whole scale, I'm gonna use the whole scale.
Jan 3, 2021 11:36 PM
#8

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mrRobertman said:
There's no reason both can't be true, no?

The reason people accept the typical theory is because it seems entirely logical. If someone doesn't like the first season, they likely wouldn't watch the later seasons. You can even somewhat see this with SnK's stats, yes there are more 8-10s in the later seasons, but there are also less 1-5s as well.


"There's no reason both can't be true, no?"

Nope, because the percentage says it all, its simple maths. You have 100 dollar and you lost 90% of it, while in another scenario you lost only say 7% of it. Which one will have the more devastating effect?

The reason people accept the typical theory is because it seems entirely logical.

I literally said that in my post and I understand why, I too once believed that.


but there are also less 1-5s as well.

Ok, let's add that 1-5 score from season 1 to season 3 part 2 which if you add it up together is a whopping 3.3%! Oh no I am scared! This is assuming these folks wont increase their score for later season which is likely unless they are full blown haters, so its not a guarantee these score will remain the same, but lets stick to this unlikely scenario nonetheless.

If we add those percentage to season 3 part 2, its score would drop from 9.09 to around 9.07 or 9.06 at best. That is a estimate and I think I am being very generous here, you see how little the score was affected?

That's the point I was making the haters are basically insignificant. The haters are like planet earth while everyone else the majority is Jupiter!

I just want folks to be aware that this sequel effect mumbo jumbo is one big misconception.


keragammingJan 3, 2021 11:47 PM
Jan 3, 2021 11:40 PM
#9

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keragamming said:


No it doesn't as that user is saying that they should combine all the score from these sequels, so and get a total aggregate score after you combine them.

I pointed out that this is unfair to the sequel series and for series like fmab and hxh 2011 for example is a big advantage, which is why I pointed out that if fmab and hxh 2011 where to be split up into seasons like snk and the other sequels, they too would get a lower overall score when you combine the aggregate as the earlier arcs for those were consider to be weak and there scorers were like 8.30 in the first and second arc of those series so the score would drop tremendously if they were to be combine.

I was simple showing him that full adaptation has its advantages too.

On second thought that was a rather stupid thing to ask, it doesn't effect FMAB and HxH that much

But doesn't splitting seasons give you an unfair advantage over anime like death note
If I were to split death note into two parts


The difference between the scores for both seasons would be massive

Also how do you explain exceptional cases like Oregairu?
SeekingChaosJan 3, 2021 11:43 PM
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Jan 3, 2021 11:54 PM

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SeekingChaos said:
keragamming said:


No it doesn't as that user is saying that they should combine all the score from these sequels, so and get a total aggregate score after you combine them.

I pointed out that this is unfair to the sequel series and for series like fmab and hxh 2011 for example is a big advantage, which is why I pointed out that if fmab and hxh 2011 where to be split up into seasons like snk and the other sequels, they too would get a lower overall score when you combine the aggregate as the earlier arcs for those were consider to be weak and there scorers were like 8.30 in the first and second arc of those series so the score would drop tremendously if they were to be combine.

I was simple showing him that full adaptation has its advantages too.

On second thought that was a rather stupid thing to ask, it doesn't effect FMAB and HxH that much

But doesn't splitting seasons give you an unfair advantage over anime like death note
If I were to split death note into two parts


The difference between the scores for both seasons would be massive

Also how do you explain exceptional cases like Oregairu?


That is a interesting scenario, as death note is the opposite of most series and one of those rare exceptions where the first arc is better/more liked than the second arc. I think if death note was split and the first season ended at episode 25 it would definitely be rated higher than what it is now.

So its first arc wouldn't be at a disadvantage at all, but the second arc would probably be rated if I had to guess around 7.00 - 7.80 range.

You would have to explain to me what you mean when you mention Oregairu? It's been years since I have watched that anime. So put it in spoilers.
Jan 3, 2021 11:59 PM
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keragamming said:


_FRB_ said:
If MAL's scores are calculated by a true mean, your conclusion that users rating 1-6 not having as much of an effect is mathematically incorrect. Also maybe you shouldn't use FMAB as a comparison. We all know what happens with its scores.

You are correct that the sequel usually being more climactic is a factor, or multiple things may happen that may lead the sequel to be less liked. But in general the sequel effect as we know it (sequels having higher scores because people that didn't like the first will not watch the sequel) is true.


I literally gave you an example that if those 8/10 users that is 25% decide to change their score to a 10/10 snk would jump right to second place despite these haters still being there, so basically the low scores are not what decide if a series is rated 5,6,7,8, or 9. The majority rule, its like a vote. the haters are 7.1% compare to everyone else that is 80.1% now tell me who has the more power here?

So if haters could not stop or have any effect to stop snk season 1 from being second if those 8/10 scorers change their score to 10/10, why would it have any effects for future sequel either.

The point I making is that the haters percentage wise is so low that in reality they don't affect the scores as much, I literally gave you the example without removing any of the haters from the stats that snk can easily be #2.


Again assuming MAL's rating are based on the true mean: If an anime has predominantly high scores, then a 1 added to mix affects the score MORE than another high score added in, because that's how averages work. If a show has mostly 8-10 ratings, me rating it 8-10 results in a change basically equivalent to nothing. But if I rate it a 1 it changes significantly more by comparison.

If your average test score is high, one bad score is going to affect your average more than another high score. This is extremely easy to prove yourself with small sample sizes, then just apply the same concept.

Deciding an average score based on a collection of ratings is absolutely not an example of "majority wins" in the way you are describing, i.e. The 80% does not prevent from 7% from existing. The end result is not binary like you are implying, and it's not a vote. If anything, the people with "more power" to change the score are the ones that are dissident to the most common scores.
Jan 4, 2021 12:20 AM

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_FRB_ said:
keragamming said:




I literally gave you an example that if those 8/10 users that is 25% decide to change their score to a 10/10 snk would jump right to second place despite these haters still being there, so basically the low scores are not what decide if a series is rated 5,6,7,8, or 9. The majority rule, its like a vote. the haters are 7.1% compare to everyone else that is 80.1% now tell me who has the more power here?

So if haters could not stop or have any effect to stop snk season 1 from being second if those 8/10 scorers change their score to 10/10, why would it have any effects for future sequel either.

The point I making is that the haters percentage wise is so low that in reality they don't affect the scores as much, I literally gave you the example without removing any of the haters from the stats that snk can easily be #2.


Again assuming MAL's rating are based on the true mean: If an anime has predominantly high scores, then a 1 added to mix affects the score MORE than another high score added in, because that's how averages work. If a show has mostly 8-10 ratings, me rating it 8-10 results in a change basically equivalent to nothing. But if I rate it a 1 it changes significantly more by comparison.

If your average test score is high, one bad score is going to affect your average more than another high score. This is extremely easy to prove yourself with small sample sizes, then just apply the same concept.

Deciding an average score based on a collection of ratings is absolutely not an example of "majority wins" in the way you are describing, i.e. The 80% does not prevent from 7% from existing. The end result is not binary like you are implying, and it's not a vote. If anything, the people with "more power" to change the score are the ones that are dissident to the most common scores.


I get the 1/10 score and I know it does a decent damage, but you are straying away form the point as a 1/10 vote for the most part are troll votes, downvote bots etc, so I was more thinking people that genuinely didn't like the series, which most wont even be rating in those extreme low range.

And what I am seeing is still true, the 0.3% 1/10 vote for snk season 1 is really not that impactful to the overall score, if it was 1% and more then we will see some effect but even so, the score still wouldn't have a significant drop in score.

Fmab actually has 0.7% 1/10 votes which is even more than attack on titan first season that didn't stop it from being number 1, because of the share power of the 10/10 and 9/10 votes out power it easily.

I am not saying those low scores have no effect, but in the grand scheme of things its negotiable, there is no going around that.

You can twist it all you want, but at the end of the day the reason fmab is #1 is because 50% gave it a 10/10 and 28% gave it a 9/10. The rest is chump change, those will affect its score yes, which is the reason its not close to reaching 10.00, 9.21 is so far away from 10.00, so yes if you look at it in that perspective those lower scores did do a good amount of damage to the overall score especially the 1/10 votes so it is not insignificant if you look at it in that perspective, but in the grand scheme of things fmab is the top dog and 9.21 is the bar that it has set.

Edit: Well actually the 7/10 users 12.5% is another reason for that. Forgot about them. lol

That is what we are working with.
keragammingJan 4, 2021 12:37 AM
Jan 4, 2021 12:40 AM

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keragamming said:


Nope, because the percentage says it all, its simple maths. You have 100 dollar and you lost 90% of it, while in another scenario you lost only say 7% of it. Which one will have the more devastating effect?



The thing is, there are less people that watch with each season. There are 2 million people who have completed S1 of SnK, but S2 only has 1 million, and the final season has only 263,000 watching. There are less and less people with each season.

You're not wrong saying that people are likely rating higher because the anime gets better as it goes on, but it's also extremely likely the people who are the most enthusiastic about the anime are the ones that continue to watch the sequels.
And based on how many less people watched S2 of SnK than S1, we can assume there are even people who rated positive (like 6s, 7s, and some 8s) that didn't continue on. Therefore, you would have a higher percentage of 8s, 9s, and 10s than the previous seasons had.

I have the whole scale, I'm gonna use the whole scale.
Jan 4, 2021 1:15 AM

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even if this is true its just an exception to the rule anyway
Jan 4, 2021 1:18 AM

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mrRobertman said:
keragamming said:


Nope, because the percentage says it all, its simple maths. You have 100 dollar and you lost 90% of it, while in another scenario you lost only say 7% of it. Which one will have the more devastating effect?



The thing is, there are less people that watch with each season. There are 2 million people who have completed S1 of SnK, but S2 only has 1 million, and the final season has only 263,000 watching. There are less and less people with each season.

You're not wrong saying that people are likely rating higher because the anime gets better as it goes on, but it's also extremely likely the people who are the most enthusiastic about the anime are the ones that continue to watch the sequels.
And based on how many less people watched S2 of SnK than S1, we can assume there are even people who rated positive (like 6s, 7s, and some 8s) that didn't continue on. Therefore, you would have a higher percentage of 8s, 9s, and 10s than the previous seasons had.


but it's also extremely likely the people who are the most enthusiastic about the anime are the ones that continue to watch the sequels.

I was never denying that.

Therefore, you would have a higher percentage of 8s, 9s, and 10s than the previous seasons had.

That didn't help season 2 being ranked lower than season 1.

Season 3 part 1 is also rated 8.56 with over 1 million users, while season 3 part 2 is over 900k users despite that, season 3 part 2 has over 34k favourites compare to season 2 with 1.4 million members and only having 15k and season 3 part 1 with 1 million users having 12k.

This simple indicate that season 3 part 2 rating is purely because of its quality and that these users that didn't add season 2 and season 3 part 1 in their favourite, means for them this one is special to them.

The score has only been going up for season 3 part 2 as more members are watching it to catch up to the final season, 900k members is a good enough sample size to tell you that even when this season reaches to 2 million it will either be higher in ranking or still be in this number range, just like hxh 2011, fmab etc no matter the amount of increase members, we will be seeing this same trend of this season getting mostly 10/10 and 9/10 score. That is what sample size is for, it is use as a way to make prediction, the bigger the sample size the more accurate is the prediction.




Think about it, why did it take 3 seasons for the score be so high? Why are season 1 to 3 are all so close to each other while season 3 part 2 literally best rocketed itself from the rest of the previous season? Because the basement arc delivered and it blow away anime only minds, it's a twist most of them didn't see coming.

Snk season 1 has 115k favourites with 2.3 million members, based off the trend of snk season 3 part 2, it will gain close to that number or even surpass that number by time it hit 1.5 million members. The more highly rank a series is the more its favourite count increases.

You are thinking that the more users that watch snk season 3 part 2, the lower the score will become but that's the opposite that is happening the more users that watches it, the higher the score becomes, I wouldn't be surprised by April that snk season 3 part 2 is in second place.

If you look at a random user list, the chances are way higher to see them giving season 3 part 2 the highest score out of all the seasons.


rated positive (like 6s, 7s, and some 8s) that didn't continue on.

Majority of those users will most definitely rate season 3 part 2 a 9/10 or 10/10, again you are assuming that the scores will remain the same when I have told you based off stats that season 3 part 2 is seen as the best season in the franchise thus far, which means it's highly likely those users will be giving this season a higher score compare to previous season.

Dude, just compare stats of season 3 part 2 with previous seasons, look at the number of persons giving it a 10/10 and 9/10 in season 3 part 2 and compare it to previous season, you will be surprised if
the findings.
keragammingJan 4, 2021 1:27 AM
Jan 4, 2021 7:41 AM

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keragamming said:
it wouldn't make any sense to have all this build up to something that is inferior to the build up?

I see this all the time. Thanks to the industry's tendency to milk popular works for as long as possible, there are tons and tons and tons of anime that become worse over time. Yet inferior sequels rarely have lower scores.
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Jan 4, 2021 10:12 AM

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keragamming said:


but it's also extremely likely the people who are the most enthusiastic about the anime are the ones that continue to watch the sequels.

I was never denying that.


But isn't that effectively what the original sequel inflation theory is? Because the people who are the most enthusiastic are also likely to be the people who give the higher scores because they like the series so much, and the people who only gave 7s or lower are less likely to have continued watching the later seasons.


keragamming said:

Season 3 part 1 is also rated 8.56 with over 1 million users, while season 3 part 2 is over 900k users despite that, season 3 part 2 has over 34k favourites compare to season 2 with 1.4 million members and only having 15k and season 3 part 1 with 1 million users having 12k.

This simple indicate that season 3 part 2 rating is purely because of its quality and that these users that didn't add season 2 and season 3 part 1 in their favourite, means for them this one is special to them.



Honestly, S3P2 looks like an anomaly compared to most anime, as most do not have such an large increase between seasons. That could be an increase in quality, sure.

But take a look at any other anime (where the increase is usually less dramatic), we mostly see a slight decrease in percent in the 1-7s and and slight increase in the 8-10s. Could this also be because of an increase in quality? Maybe. But it could also just that the people who liked it the most continued watching while most of the people who didn't care for it as much just didn't continue.

keragamming said:

Think about it, why did it take 3 seasons for the score be so high? Why are season 1 to 3 are all so close to each other while season 3 part 2 literally best rocketed itself from the rest of the previous season? Because the basement arc delivered and it blow away anime only minds, it's a twist most of them didn't see coming.


That could be the case for SnK, but why would that make it also the case for all other anime? Your theory may hold true for SnK, but it doesn't mean it holds true for others as well.


keragamming said:

You are thinking that the more users that watch snk season 3 part 2, the lower the score will become


No, I'm saying that there are less people who have watched the later seasons compared to the first.

keragamming said:

but that's the opposite that is happening the more users that watches it, the higher the score becomes, I wouldn't be surprised by April that snk season 3 part 2 is in second place.


My entire point is just that there are presumably people who gave an earlier season something like a 7 and didn't continue to watch the later seasons (based on the fewer completing as the series goes on), and this can have an affect to the higher score as there are slightly fewer lower(7 and under) scores. And my point isn't specific to SnK, but to sequels in general which have the score inflation.


keragamming said:

If you look at a random user list, the chances are way higher to see them giving season 3 part 2 the highest score out of all the seasons.


And if you look at a random user list, the chances are also high to see them only having watched season 1, gave it a positive score of 7 or something, and never continued to watch the later seasons.



This whole thread just feels like you found a way to explain SnK S3P2 high score and decided to apply it to all anime without actually looking at all anime. Most other sequels could easily be explained by both theories, not one or the other.

I have the whole scale, I'm gonna use the whole scale.
Jan 4, 2021 10:46 AM

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Lucifrost said:
keragamming said:
it wouldn't make any sense to have all this build up to something that is inferior to the build up?

I see this all the time. Thanks to the industry's tendency to milk popular works for as long as possible, there are tons and tons and tons of anime that become worse over time. Yet inferior sequels rarely have lower scores.


Clearly that is your personal opinion here, the fact that the sequel doesn't have a lower score just means the majority share opinion than yours.

@mrRobertman

Would love if you could give me a example for any anime.
Jan 4, 2021 10:53 AM

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Second seasons, unless they have a relevant quality drop (ex. OPM) usually are better rated because only the fans remain to watch the subsequent seasons.


People who dislike it from the 1st season, of course, don't watch the second and don't rate it.


FMAb can be considered a "second season" (or more exactly, a second version) of the huge early-2000's hit that was FMA.

I'm from that time, i enjoyed the 1st FMA, and until now i didn't watch the Brotherhood because i finish the story by reading the manga, but if i do, certainly it will be a obvious 10/10 for me.

For me and for every other original FMA fan.
Jan 4, 2021 11:01 AM

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keragamming said:


That is a interesting scenario, as death note is the opposite of most series and one of those rare exceptions where the first arc is better/more liked than the second arc. I think if death note was split and the first season ended at episode 25 it would definitely be rated higher than what it is now.


Exactly, the rule is: Second season is rated better, for natural selection of audience.

The exception: Unless it has a remarkable quality drop (or is a disaster): OPM, Berserk, SAO etc.
Jan 4, 2021 12:15 PM

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This is an interesting take, but we should see if the same reasoning can be applied to other anime.

I can't explain it objectively cause it's just my sensation, but whenever there's a franchise whose first (or first few) seasons are rated slightly higher than the subsequent ones, I actually found these first season(s) to be MUCH better, and not just "slightly". Like the newest seasons would have gotten an even lower score, if sequel bias didn't exist. Some examples: Kaiji, Kimi ni Todoke, Durarara, Food Wars, My Hero Academia.

On the other hand, when the second season is rated at least 0.10-0.15 higher than the first, I usually manage to like both seasons equally, rather than considering the second much better, as the score would indicate. Some examples: Kaguya-sama, Jojo, Shouwa Genroku Rakugo Shinjuu, Made in Abyss, Genshiken, Aggretsuko, K-On.
NirinboJan 4, 2021 12:53 PM
Jan 4, 2021 12:31 PM
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You AOT fanboys are so fucking desperate for your show to get to number 1 on MAL, aren't you?
Jan 4, 2021 12:52 PM

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MoonDragon72 said:
You AOT fanboys are so fucking desperate for your show to get to number 1 on MAL, aren't you?
Bruh did you even read the post that has absolutely nothing to do with anything lmao
Jan 4, 2021 1:03 PM

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that's interesting but you're gonna need more than just 1 example to prove this true. do this for the 50 sequels with the best scores and I'll believe what you have to say at this point. But just doing it with one series and taking for granted that's how it works for everything is celebrating your discovery too soon.
Jan 4, 2021 2:15 PM

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keragamming said:

Would love if you could give me a example for any anime.


What exactly do you want examples of? I said they could be explained by both, as it would be extremely difficult (likely impossible) to prove it either way.

If you want anime that I think are, as @Rob7 perfectly described it as, rated better because of the natural selection of the audience, I would say a few examples are: Spice and Wolf, Fire Force, Aggretsuko, New Game, and Non Non Biyori.

It's of course very possible that the stories get better as they go on which is why the sequels are rated higher, but also you get less returning viewers who rated 1-7 so you have a slightly disproportional amount of 8-10s returning compared to the lower ratings. Sequel inflation is likely made up of multiple factors, but it seems silly to say the natural selection of the audience does not play a large role in most cases. In fact, I would say most SoL anime (K-On, New Game, Non Non Biyori) the natural selection is the most important factor. There is little to no story in these anime, so the viewers who enjoyed the characters and comedy the most are way more likely to return to rate it.

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Jan 4, 2021 2:39 PM
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so much mental effort for something so trivial lol
Jan 4, 2021 2:40 PM
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GoZha said:
MoonDragon72 said:
You AOT fanboys are so fucking desperate for your show to get to number 1 on MAL, aren't you?
Bruh did you even read the post that has absolutely nothing to do with anything lmao

"It has nothing to do with anything" dude, the only sequels that he brings up is AOT and that's it (unless I overlooked something). If he brought up more examples, then I would say he had a point.
Jan 4, 2021 2:41 PM

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MoonDragon72 said:
GoZha said:
Bruh did you even read the post that has absolutely nothing to do with anything lmao

"It has nothing to do with anything" dude, the only sequels that he brings up is AOT and that's it (unless I overlooked something). If he brought up more examples, then I would say he had a point.
I agree with you that he should have collected more data to better prove the point but never did he say that Attack on Titan should be number 1, he literally said he is an FMAB fan and he has FMAB at a 10/10
Jan 4, 2021 2:46 PM
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GoZha said:
MoonDragon72 said:

"It has nothing to do with anything" dude, the only sequels that he brings up is AOT and that's it (unless I overlooked something). If he brought up more examples, then I would say he had a point.
I agree with you that he should have collected more data to better prove the point but never did he say that Attack on Titan should be number 1, he literally said he is an FMAB fan and he has FMAB at a 10/10


I've interacted with this guy before. He said that AOT should be number 1 on this thread:
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1886514&show=30
Jan 4, 2021 3:49 PM

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MoonDragon72 said:
GoZha said:
I agree with you that he should have collected more data to better prove the point but never did he say that Attack on Titan should be number 1, he literally said he is an FMAB fan and he has FMAB at a 10/10


I've interacted with this guy before. He said that AOT should be number 1 on this thread:
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1886514&show=30


I was talking about the final season on that thread when I replied to you, in this thread I am using season 3 part 2 as an example and what I am addressing here has nothing to do with rankings or which series should be #1, but it was about sequels in general.

@mrRobertman
@Zehennagel
@Rob7


Fair enough, when I have the time I will edit the post with other examples. I'm not sure on how many examples I need to prove my point. Is 10 samples good enough or do I need 50? Or maybe a 100?
keragammingJan 4, 2021 3:54 PM
Jan 4, 2021 3:56 PM
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keragamming said:
MoonDragon72 said:


I've interacted with this guy before. He said that AOT should be number 1 on this thread:
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1886514&show=30


I was talking about the final season on that thread when I replied to you, in this thread I am using season 3 part 2 as an example and what I am addressing here has nothing to do with rankings, but it was about sequels in general.


But you are addressing rankings. I can't think of any other way to interpret this thread. Also, you should use other examples besides AOT because it seems like you're an overly obsessed fanboy.
Jan 4, 2021 3:57 PM

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MoonDragon72 said:
keragamming said:


I was talking about the final season on that thread when I replied to you, in this thread I am using season 3 part 2 as an example and what I am addressing here has nothing to do with rankings, but it was about sequels in general.


But you are addressing rankings. I can't think of any other way to interpret this thread. Also, you should use other examples besides AOT because it seems like you're an overly obsessed fanboy.


Yes, many users pointed out I needed more examples than snk, which I will do and edit the thread, but I am not sure how many more examples I need to prove my point here.

And yes, the sequel effect thread came up because I constantly see persons saying snk is only at the top because of the sequel effect, so yes it is to some extend related to rankings I wont deny that, hence snk season 3 part 2 was the perfect example in this situation.

But I admit I didn't do research on other series and just assume that is the case for all sequels so when I do my research on other series I will post my findings here.
Jan 4, 2021 3:59 PM
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keragamming said:
MoonDragon72 said:


But you are addressing rankings. I can't think of any other way to interpret this thread. Also, you should use other examples besides AOT because it seems like you're an overly obsessed fanboy.


Yes, many users pointed out I needed more examples than snk, which I will do and edit the thread, but I am not sure how many more examples I need to prove my point here.


Gintama would be a good example. March Comes In Like A Lion and Code Geass as well.
Jan 4, 2021 4:20 PM

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MoonDragon72 said:
keragamming said:


Yes, many users pointed out I needed more examples than snk, which I will do and edit the thread, but I am not sure how many more examples I need to prove my point here.


Gintama would be a good example. March Comes In Like A Lion and Code Geass as well.


Ok, I will look at those and a few others.
Jan 4, 2021 5:23 PM

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There was a similar topic to this when AoT S3 P2 was airing oh it was actually made by OP lol: https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1790314

About the thread yeah I agree with you OP and also about longer series I don't know about others but personally I neglect bad parts of longer anime very easier than shorter series and maybe others are the same too that made FMAB and HxH 2011's score so high
Jan 4, 2021 6:05 PM

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mhkr said:
There was a similar topic to this when AoT S3 P2 was airing oh it was actually made by OP lol: https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1790314

About the thread yeah I agree with you OP and also about longer series I don't know about others but personally I neglect bad parts of longer anime very easier than shorter series and maybe others are the same too that made FMAB and HxH 2011's score so high


Interesting, I honestly didn't remember I made a thread like this before, if I had I would have just updated that post.

I could have avoided all this writing. Sigh. Though this post have a bit more meat into it.

@mhkr
Holyshit! This is literally exactly 2 years ago, what is the chances of that? If anything I would think this was all planned. What a bizzare coincidence.
keragammingJan 4, 2021 6:45 PM
Jan 4, 2021 8:24 PM

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keragamming said:

@mhkr
Holyshit! This is literally exactly 2 years ago, what is the chances of that? If anything I would think this was all planned. What a bizzare coincidence.
Uhh, sorry but I don't understand what do you mean by that. The previous topic made after the final episode of S3 Part 2 and it wasn't literally 2 years ago lol we're in January now though it was made exactly 1 and a half year ago
Feb 12, 2021 1:10 PM

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Idk but for animes with several season MAL reslly should try to add an AVERAGE /OVERALL score too, like REAL SERIES DO... that way you can have

Example : aot season 1 ... 8,48 ... amount of users 1,715,339
Season 2 ... 8,44 ... amount of users 1,003,285 ( - 712.054 users)
Season 3 ... 8,59 ... amount of users 748,520 ( - 254.765 users)
S 3 pt 2 ... 9,10 ... amount of users 700,075 ( - 48.445 users in same season )
S finale ... 9,17 ... amount of users 276.010 ( - 424.065 is airing so i asume will increased)

Average /overall = 8,756 ... so the score will include all season.

Now why you asked, cuz is a whole show with a continuity ... like GOT, and all series with seversl season on idbm , you got GENERAL SCORE OF THE SHOW AND then i dividual rating ... episode rating will be asking to much from mal staff

They have so much issues avoiding voting brigade . Why do i use AoT as example, to make it short cuz im annoying on how they act that their score is better than any show WHEN IS HAS SIGNIFICALLY less users than other shows, will lead in increaisng of the RATING, which is an ilusion since only loyal fans stay voting 10/10 and people who drop it didnt review, look at the ampunt of people who have drop this show. If is such a masterpiece, why many people leave it ???

Casual viewers who cuould rste this show 7 or 8 also leave, avoiding to lpw the score BUT ANYWAY, WITH ALL THIS FACTS, REAL PROOF AOT fans blame full metal alchemist fandom for their scoring decreasing , DUDE BE REAL, MORE PEOPLE WILL WATCH IT LATER, THEREFORD score itsome will find it good and score it 7, who knows, i never seen such an entitled fandom before, that instead of realising for all people will score 10/10 they blame it on OTHERS and their

Conspiro paranoic delusion that MAL is rigid or benefic a 1 year old show that score 9 in japan last year of most BELOVED MANGAS EVER... 12 year old manga , respect your elders hahahah

You dont have to like it but score it 1 out pf 10 is ridiculous and just show how inmature in general are tye new users of this site, they are making so hard fpr general public to believe in the scoring system.
Feb 12, 2021 1:34 PM

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What a trash IRRELEVANT analysis that doesn't even begin to tackle the sequel effect. I was expecting you to look at multiple sequels to show how the scores didn't improve, but not only did you demonstrate that the score did improve between AoT3S2 vs AoT1, you also only examined two anime franchises, FMAB and AoT. Regardless of how FMAB does in comparison to AoT, that is simply anecdotal and does not disprove the sequel effect in any capacity.

I would even argue that FMAB benefits in some respects from the sequel effect because, let's be honest, a large part of its fan base were people who anticipated it from having watched the original FMA, and that also explains the hype for HxH 2011.

As for your other point, there's no point in reading too deeply into why people rate sequels highly. The bottom line is that people who rate season 1 highly are more likely to continue to watch season 2, and more likely to appreciate the story developments, and more likely to rate season 2 highly. Obviously, there are exceptions when something about season 2 changes, like the studio in AoT's case.
My subjective reviews: katsureview.wordpress.com
THE CHAT CLUB.
Feb 12, 2021 1:43 PM

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Playay said:
In MAL case, in my opinion,



In short, they only different because airing time
in my opinion
I think we could disprove this view with a simple thought experiment.

Imagine two shows that are exactly the same, except show A has 5 episodes, and show B has 5 seasons of 1 episode each. People who watch show A rate all 5 episodes at once. People who watch show B rate episode 1, then a portion of them choose to continue to watch episode 2, then a portion of that portion continue to episode 3, and so on... Of course, a very, very small number of people might watch episode 3 without having watched episode 1. Another small number of people might have liked episode 1 but grew tired of episode 3. But for the most part, since the episodes are of the same quality and direction, the people who liked episode 1 would also like episode 3.

Now let's say that the show is very, very bad -- 80% of the people watch it hate it so much they never want to watch it again. The remaining 20%, for whatever reason, love it. So then, show A gets 80% dislikes and 20% likes. Show B episode 1 gets 80% dislikes and 20% likes. But then episodes 2-5 gets close to 100% likes. So when you average all the scores, you get 55% likes.

So the same show, A is 20% likes, B is 55% likes.
My subjective reviews: katsureview.wordpress.com
THE CHAT CLUB.
Feb 12, 2021 1:45 PM

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I will read this for another time. But why do you keep using AOT as an example lmao. You could find better ones with anime no one seems to talk a lot about.
Feb 12, 2021 1:51 PM

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NextUniverse said:
I will read this for another time. But why do you keep using AOT as an example lmao. You could find better ones with anime no one seems to talk a lot about.


keragamming the type of guy who would go through hell and back for AoT

My man made this whole thread (and another one) just to prove that it's score is legit and not just due to sequel effect

One Piece episode 914 & 915 & 1027 were a mistake and 957 brought the salvation - FMmatron


Feb 12, 2021 1:59 PM
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katsucats said:
Playay said:
In MAL case, in my opinion,



In short, they only different because airing time
in my opinion
I think we could disprove this view with a simple thought experiment.

Imagine two shows that are exactly the same, except show A has 5 episodes, and show B has 5 seasons of 1 episode each. People who watch show A rate all 5 episodes at once. People who watch show B rate episode 1, then a portion of them choose to continue to watch episode 2, then a portion of that portion continue to episode 3, and so on... Of course, a very, very small number of people might watch episode 3 without having watched episode 1. Another small number of people might have liked episode 1 but grew tired of episode 3. But for the most part, since the episodes are of the same quality and direction, the people who liked episode 1 would also like episode 3.

Now let's say that the show is very, very bad -- 80% of the people watch it hate it so much they never want to watch it again. The remaining 20%, for whatever reason, love it. So then, show A gets 80% dislikes and 20% likes. Show B episode 1 gets 80% dislikes and 20% likes. But then episodes 2-5 gets close to 100% likes. So when you average all the scores, you get 55% likes.

So the same show, A is 20% likes, B is 55% likes.
I in my honest memories don't even remember that i was typing those texts. Anyway, your explaination makes sense tho, i don't know why i was thinking like that...
Feb 13, 2021 2:51 AM

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I can start with saying that I wholeheartedly disagree with this. I'd say the effects of the sequel inflation is extremely obvious by just checking the stats of sequels all over MAL's database. I mean I get that you want to disprove the impact of sequel inflation because you want to legitimize AoT's score.

But why first of all do you compare it to FMAB. Since that's a pretty bad comparison. Because it too may be under some effect of sequel inflation due to the fact that it's a remake. People who watched FMA might opt to not even watch FMAB if they didn't like FMA to begin with. Even if we disregard that however, then sequel inflation is more noticeable in series with multiple season. It'd be better if you actually had more examples to compare it to. Especially examples that are about as long running in terms of seasons as AoT.

Secondly, why are you making basically the exact same thread as you made a little under 2 years ago, if you aren't adding much new information to it. There too it was about looking at AoT's stats. And it's still very clearly biased by your love for AoT and the only real new thing you added was comparing it to FMAB (which like previously mentioned, is not exactly a good example).

And even in that previous thread you made, most people disagreed and I'd say even debunked this claim. @TheCobraSlayer making the best points in regards to that. So you should be even more incentivized to actually add in much more new valuable information if you want in some way combat this.
Subarashii
Feb 13, 2021 3:22 AM

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FMmatron said:
NextUniverse said:
I will read this for another time. But why do you keep using AOT as an example lmao. You could find better ones with anime no one seems to talk a lot about.


keragamming the type of guy who would go through hell and back for AoT

My man made this whole thread (and another one) just to prove that it's score is legit and not just due to sequel effect
sequel effects don't make score go 100+ rankings in the top where fights usually happen. My favourite Sao season 2 didn't get that sequel effect. Neither did my lovely Tokyo ghoul: Re season 2 got it. Berserk failed as well, my another Favourito anime. Seven deadly sins is another one. Why do most of my favourite anime don't get sequel effects but others do, it's disheartening.
"I think I wanted to attack something. Like betraying people or hurting people. And, well, it's not exactly nice, but hurting the readers too... In all honestly, I feel that's what I really wanted to do. For me, as a reader, when I think, "this manga will remain in my heart," it means, for example, it phenomenally hurt me: It's those kinds of experiences I'm after." - Pajime Hisayama (My favourite hurting author).
Feb 13, 2021 3:52 AM

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You're logic is flawed though as most regularly rate shows 5-6 that are still ok, its on the upper half of the rating spectrum.

Another day another aot vs fmab thread.
You're slowly making me hate aot when I love it...

Feb 13, 2021 3:59 AM

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Peeti said:
FMmatron said:


keragamming the type of guy who would go through hell and back for AoT

My man made this whole thread (and another one) just to prove that it's score is legit and not just due to sequel effect
sequel effects don't make score go 100+ rankings in the top where fights usually happen. My favourite Sao season 2 didn't get that sequel effect. Neither did my lovely Tokyo ghoul: Re season 2 got it. Berserk failed as well, my another Favourito anime. Seven deadly sins is another one. Why do most of my favourite anime don't get sequel effects but others do, it's disheartening.


SAO S2 - Was a massive disappointment to a lot of people who loved S1.

Tokyo Ghoul: Re S2 - Again, a massive disappointment. Mainly for the people who've read the manga because it was just an outright mess in adapting it. And even people who were anime-onlys were confused in what the hell was going on.

Berserk - (I'm assuming you mean the newer ones), while it adapted the story alright, it was the full CG that looked absolutely horrendous that made people dislike it.

Seven Deadly Sins - Mainly because people didn't think it kept the quality of S1. That's especially noticeable in S3 where they changed studios and it looked awful.

Those series still had sequel inflation. Just like all series. Problem being that the decrease in quality was too much to be compensated by the inflation.
Subarashii
Feb 13, 2021 4:04 AM

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when i saw the title of the thread i thought its going to be a rare interesting discussion on MAL, then i saw numbers and woke up
Feb 13, 2021 4:06 AM

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Peeti said:
sequel effects don't make score go 100+ rankings in the top where fights usually happen. My favourite Sao season 2 didn't get that sequel effect. Neither did my lovely Tokyo ghoul: Re season 2 got it. Berserk failed as well, my another Favourito anime. Seven deadly sins is another one. Why do most of my favourite anime don't get sequel effects but others do, it's disheartening.

Berserk did get a better score for the second season, though.
Feb 13, 2021 4:07 AM

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Vilkku92 said:
Peeti said:
sequel effects don't make score go 100+ rankings in the top where fights usually happen. My favourite Sao season 2 didn't get that sequel effect. Neither did my lovely Tokyo ghoul: Re season 2 got it. Berserk failed as well, my another Favourito anime. Seven deadly sins is another one. Why do most of my favourite anime don't get sequel effects but others do, it's disheartening.

Berserk did get a better score for the second season, though.
that 2017 Berserk is great but mine Favourito is berserk 2016 which is a sequel to 1997 one and movies.
Avicebrons said:
Peeti said:
sequel effects don't make score go 100+ rankings in the top where fights usually happen. My favourite Sao season 2 didn't get that sequel effect. Neither did my lovely Tokyo ghoul: Re season 2 got it. Berserk failed as well, my another Favourito anime. Seven deadly sins is another one. Why do most of my favourite anime don't get sequel effects but others do, it's disheartening.


SAO S2 - Was a massive disappointment to a lot of people who loved S1.

Tokyo Ghoul: Re S2 - Again, a massive disappointment. Mainly for the people who've read the manga because it was just an outright mess in adapting it. And even people who were anime-onlys were confused in what the hell was going on.

Berserk - (I'm assuming you mean the newer ones), while it adapted the story alright, it was the full CG that looked absolutely horrendous that made people dislike it.

Seven Deadly Sins - Mainly because people didn't think it kept the quality of S1. That's especially noticeable in S3 where they changed studios and it looked awful.

Those series still had sequel inflation. Just like all series. Problem being that the decrease in quality was too much to be compensated by the inflation.
so quality matters in sequels? I thought it was a free real estate. Do even fans want quality upgrade? Why do they care so much?
PeetiFeb 13, 2021 4:11 AM
"I think I wanted to attack something. Like betraying people or hurting people. And, well, it's not exactly nice, but hurting the readers too... In all honestly, I feel that's what I really wanted to do. For me, as a reader, when I think, "this manga will remain in my heart," it means, for example, it phenomenally hurt me: It's those kinds of experiences I'm after." - Pajime Hisayama (My favourite hurting author).
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