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How many DVD/BD will SnK sell?
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How many DVD/BD will SnK sell?

Attack on Titan
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May 7, 2013 10:54 AM
#1
toutoune134
Offline
Nov 2009
172
SnK is already ranked #2 on Amazon.jp as you can see here :
http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/dvd/ref=pd_dp_ts_d_1

And according to stalker it will sell a lot. How many DVD/BD will SnK sell ? What's your opinion about it.

I guess it will sell around 35k DVD/BD

(Sorry for the bad english, it's not my native language)
toutoune134May 7, 2013 2:44 PM
Pages (2) [1] 2 »
May 7, 2013 10:59 AM
#2
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?n=B00C38PQE2

Blu-ray:29112pt(残り日数69)


http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?n=B00C38RE38

DVD:15043pt(残り日数69)


Atm, Stalker is estimating it will sell about 45k BD-DVD.

It will change, of course. Depending if it can maintain its current ranks or not.
May 7, 2013 11:08 AM
#3
TriZen

Offline
Apr 2013
711
I'm guessing minimum of 40k based on stalker points so far
But, imo it could pass 50k or even more if they maintain the quality of the anime. It seems like it is pretty huge right now and receives good impressions from Japanese people (based on the number of SnK-related post in Japanese websites)
High chance that it will be the best selling show this season
May 7, 2013 5:16 PM
#4
Takana_no_Hana

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Nov 2009
1632
sky rocket like Kuroko no Basket
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May 7, 2013 5:41 PM
#5
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
What a change. Now, the naysayers are saying it can't possibly reach 30k.

You know an anime must be something if the haters are insisting it should only sell at 20k level.
May 7, 2013 5:46 PM
#6
dhchen
Offline
Apr 2013
56
20K is ensured. That only question is could it reach 30K, which is typical difficult, because it is an adaption of manga. So, fans would like to buy mange instead of BD/DVD. But, the quality of this animation is too high.
May 7, 2013 5:49 PM
#7
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
Even 20k is very difficult. Since 2000, only about a 100 anime managed to average 10k per volume in sales.

http://www.mania.com/aodvb/showpost.php?p=2010468&postcount=20

20k average sales means it lands around Top 40 bestselling anime since 2000. That's already very impressive.
May 7, 2013 5:51 PM
#8
Zalis

Offline
Jun 2007
4124
How likely is the series to create an original ending that'll piss off manga fans? That'd be one thing that could depress sales.

Everything that connects to MAL

Contains Ecchi, but not Tagged Ecchi: Part 1 || Part 2 || Part 3

May 7, 2013 5:56 PM
#9
LegendGoldDark
Offline
Jul 2012
9027
1 ha
May 7, 2013 6:08 PM
#10
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
Zalis said:
How likely is the series to create an original ending that'll piss off manga fans? That'd be one thing that could depress sales.


Low chance right now. Most manga readers prefer and think it will just stop at the end of volume 8.

The mangaka is also clearly supporting the anime studio. Even with an original ending, most manga readers will be okay with it so long as the mangaka approves of it.
May 7, 2013 6:09 PM
#11
FrozenWaffles
Offline
May 2013
1755
If the show keeps it up like it is doing now I say over 40k easily
May 7, 2013 7:07 PM
#12
GodlyKyon

Offline
Sep 2011
3935
If it doesn't surpass SAO's first week vol 1, I will lose my faith in anime fans
"Justice Never Dies!" - Kenji Endou, 20th century Boys
May 7, 2013 8:38 PM
#13
dhchen
Offline
Apr 2013
56
TehBlindSamurai said:
If the show keeps it up like it is doing now I say over 40k easily

No way. The japanese put high value on characters more than plot when it come to DVD/BD. This anime has an great plot, but without charming characters. So, it can only reach 30k if everything goes well.
May 7, 2013 8:49 PM
#14
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
dhchen said:
TehBlindSamurai said:
If the show keeps it up like it is doing now I say over 40k easily

No way. The japanese put high value on characters more than plot when it come to DVD/BD. This anime has an great plot, but without charming characters. So, it can only reach 30k if everything goes well.


Visit pixiv. SnK characters (even the dead ones) have a lot of fans. Also, if you visit 4chan, anons have their favorite SnK characters.

The cast is actually one of the major selling points of this series.
May 7, 2013 8:53 PM
#15
deg
lagom
Offline
Jan 2009
107504
dhchen said:
But, the quality of this animation is too high.


nah clearly episode 1 is the only high quality animated episode so far, they lack enough animators said by recent news so thats why the animation quality is not consistent

and i agree that 20K+ sales is guaranteed already, if it reach 40k+ sales then its already a massive hit
May 7, 2013 9:10 PM
#16
dhchen
Offline
Apr 2013
56
j0x said:
dhchen said:
But, the quality of this animation is too high.


nah clearly episode 1 is the only high quality animated episode so far, they lack enough animators said by recent news so thats why the animation quality is not consistent

and i agree that 20K+ sales is guaranteed already, if it reach 40k+ sales then its already a massive hit

I think it's already a massive hit. Anyway, I hope it can follow the manga, then produce the second season in 2 or 3 years late.
May 8, 2013 8:47 AM
#17
AForgottenSoul

Offline
Apr 2009
1107
GodlyKyon said:
If it doesn't surpass SAO's first week vol 1, I will lose my faith in anime fans


how much did soa first week vol 1 sell

dhchen said:
TehBlindSamurai said:
If the show keeps it up like it is doing now I say over 40k easily

No way. The japanese put high value on characters more than plot when it come to DVD/BD. This anime has an great plot, but without charming characters. So, it can only reach 30k if everything goes well.


if that was true why did soa do so well

?

Mod Edit: Merged posts. Please do not double post.
LunaMay 8, 2013 10:57 AM
May 8, 2013 8:49 AM
#18
Darklight0303

Offline
Apr 2008
11325
Calumz said:
dhchen said:
TehBlindSamurai said:
If the show keeps it up like it is doing now I say over 40k easily

No way. The japanese put high value on characters more than plot when it come to DVD/BD. This anime has an great plot, but without charming characters. So, it can only reach 30k if everything goes well.


if that was true why did soa do so well

?


Because it was an MMO themed show with a harem. Need I go on? Oh yea also the borderline tentacle rape. Oh and it had Yuki Kajiura's music and she has her own fandom alone
Darklight0303May 8, 2013 9:01 AM
May 8, 2013 8:58 AM
#19
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
Stalker estimate went up to 50k BD-DVD.
May 8, 2013 9:01 AM
#20
Aerostar
Offline
May 2012
2921
not much. maybe 5k.
May 8, 2013 9:02 AM
#21
Darklight0303

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Apr 2008
11325
pming said:
Stalker estimate went up to 50k BD-DVD.


[In a George Takei Voice] Oh my~
May 8, 2013 9:03 AM
#22
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
Actually, it's 54k. I rounded it off.

We'll see if it can keep it up.
May 8, 2013 10:00 AM
#23
AForgottenSoul

Offline
Apr 2009
1107
Darklight0303 said:
Calumz said:
dhchen said:
TehBlindSamurai said:
If the show keeps it up like it is doing now I say over 40k easily

No way. The japanese put high value on characters more than plot when it come to DVD/BD. This anime has an great plot, but without charming characters. So, it can only reach 30k if everything goes well.


if that was true why did soa do so well

?


Because it was an MMO themed show with a harem. Need I go on? Oh yea also the borderline tentacle rape. Oh and it had Yuki Kajiura's music and she has her own fandom alone


SOA started so good i was a fanboy for it and yer ill watch the new season but it was so bad
May 9, 2013 3:20 PM
#24
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
Right now, stalker's estimating almost 70k BD-DVD for volume 1. It didn't go up in rank. (EVA too strong.) But I guess the longer it holds rank 2, the higher the estimate becomes?
May 9, 2013 4:34 PM
#25
kaykenner54

Offline
Jan 2012
159
This is literally one of the main things I'm scared of when july comes and the vol.1 is released.

I really hope it sells as much as the monogatari series or madoka. I mean the manga is selling like crack in japan so the anime should sell that good also.

I even pre-ordered vol.1 just so I can support the anime.

If Shingeki no Kyojin sells less than 20K I will lose faith and question the japanese fandom.
May 9, 2013 4:45 PM
#26
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
Should at least 20k. It's been averaging rank 2 on Amazon for two days now. Also, stalker's already registering more than 12k points BD-DVD.

If it sells less than 20k, it would probably be the biggest over prediction the stalker's ever done.

As for selling as those TWO series, well, I'm not going to get my hopes high that much. For now, I'm going to stick with Code Geass or Fate Zero average sales (about 45k), which is more than respectable.

We'll what happens at mid-season break.
pmingMay 9, 2013 4:53 PM
May 9, 2013 8:36 PM
#27
MermaidGalaxies

Offline
May 2010
3546
A LOT. XD SnK is doing very well right now. But we shall see.

I'm one of thos peoples who pre-oredered a DVD. >.<
💕
May 10, 2013 2:38 AM
#28
witheld
Offline
Mar 2010
16
pming said:
Right now, stalker's estimating almost 70k BD-DVD for volume 1. It didn't go up in rank. (EVA too strong.) But I guess the longer it holds rank 2, the higher the estimate becomes?


Wow, 70k is crazy. That basically could cover an entire budget of 1-cour anime. I guess the rumour that Pony Canyon increased SnK budget is true then. I doubt that it will sell that much though. When will we know the actual number of sales?
May 10, 2013 5:25 AM
#29
ReasonDesu

Offline
Jan 2012
1833
witheld said:
pming said:
Right now, stalker's estimating almost 70k BD-DVD for volume 1. It didn't go up in rank. (EVA too strong.) But I guess the longer it holds rank 2, the higher the estimate becomes?


Wow, 70k is crazy. That basically could cover an entire budget of 1-cour anime. I guess the rumour that Pony Canyon increased SnK budget is true then. I doubt that it will sell that much though. When will we know the actual number of sales?


Even the BD sales are getting hyped. I'll believe 70k when I see it. That is insane sales for something that doesn't pander to the main buyers of BDs (Otaku). No doubt it will do respectably though.
ReasonDesuMay 10, 2013 10:10 AM
May 10, 2013 9:06 AM
#30
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
witheld said:
pming said:
Right now, stalker's estimating almost 70k BD-DVD for volume 1. It didn't go up in rank. (EVA too strong.) But I guess the longer it holds rank 2, the higher the estimate becomes?


Wow, 70k is crazy. That basically could cover an entire budget of 1-cour anime. I guess the rumour that Pony Canyon increased SnK budget is true then. I doubt that it will sell that much though. When will we know the actual number of sales?


We won't know real sales figures until the volumes are released. For volume 1, that's still in July. 2, in August and so forth.

The stalker is just predicting sales based on ranks over at Amazon.

Right now, volume 1 bluray is at rank 3, but the overall estimate still went up.

http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?n=B00C38PQE2
最終予測累積ポイント Blu-ray:57710pt(残り日数66)

http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?&n=B00C38RE38
最終予測累積ポイント DVD:17141pt(残り日数66)

74851 BLU-DVD

Let's see if episode 6 can keep volume 1 blu in the top 5.
May 10, 2013 9:13 AM
#31
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
Posted too soon. The rank just went back to 2.
May 10, 2013 9:24 PM
#32
RediceRyan

Offline
Jan 2013
11047
There are ps vita games that sell more than the highest selling anime in a season. Before I learned about the numbers I would have thought it wouldn't be difficult to sell 100K of popular anime.
May 10, 2013 10:10 PM
#33
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
RediceRyan said:
There are ps vita games that sell more than the highest selling anime in a season. Before I learned about the numbers I would have thought it wouldn't be difficult to sell 100K of popular anime.


You just need to buy one copy to get the entire game.

With anime, to get the entire series - you'd have to buy more than one volume.

So, for example, if SnK averages 40k, it's 40k X 9 volumes = 360k copies.

Japanese anime discs are also very expensive.
May 11, 2013 3:17 AM
#34
Iron_Maw

Offline
Mar 2010
2842
Probably around 40k+ or looking at it's daily pre-order ranking.
May 11, 2013 8:59 AM
#35
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
Posting these numbers now since they're the latest (or second latest) before episode 6 airs in Japan.

http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?n=B00C38PQE2
Blu-ray:68899pt

http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?&n=B00C38RE38
DVD:17902pt
May 12, 2013 8:54 AM
#36
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
About 24 hours after episode 6 aired.

http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?n=B00C38PQE2
Blu-ray:76983pt

http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?&n=B00C38RE38
DVD:19176pt

Current Estimated BD-DVD - 96159

Remember - these are just estimates. They will change depending on the ranks. Yes, they may (and probably will go down) since it's very hard to maintain such a high rank for months.

Also, from now on, I'm just going to post the numbers just before episode airs and 24 hours later.
May 12, 2013 9:35 AM
#37
Rachmaninow
Offline
Feb 2012
4070
Talk about generous estimates- nearly 100,000? I'd be hitting the ceiling if it only reaches half of that.
The release of atomic energy has not created a new problem. It has merely made more urgent the necessity of solving an existing one. - Albert Einstein
May 12, 2013 9:54 AM
#38
toutoune134
Offline
Nov 2009
172
Remember that those numbers are for volume 1, and the other volumes are far behind. A lot of manga readers are buying the first volume for the prototype manga, we can expect a huge drop for volume 2-9.

It will still sell a lot, My guess is around 25k.
May 12, 2013 10:31 AM
#39
Rachmaninow
Offline
Feb 2012
4070
Prototype manga? Please elaborate, good sir.

Edit: Ooh come on. Now I have to buy the first volume too. I want that manga.
The release of atomic energy has not created a new problem. It has merely made more urgent the necessity of solving an existing one. - Albert Einstein
May 12, 2013 11:36 AM
#40
toutoune134
Offline
Nov 2009
172
And here we go

**1位/**1位 ★ (*12,058 pt) [*,822予約] 13/07/17 進撃の巨人 1 [初回特典:未発表漫画65P「進撃の巨人」0巻(作:諫山創)] [Blu-ray]

The BD just ranked 1 on Amazon.jp

GuiltyKing :
DO NOT READ IF YOU DON'T READ THE MANGA
http://sgcafe.com/2013/05/attack-titan-bddvd-include-prototype-manga-original-creator/
May 12, 2013 11:51 AM
#41
Rachmaninow
Offline
Feb 2012
4070
A prototype version of SnK... it's not exactly what I thought it was but I have to own that anyway. Thank you, buddy.
The release of atomic energy has not created a new problem. It has merely made more urgent the necessity of solving an existing one. - Albert Einstein
May 12, 2013 11:59 AM
#42
Falcomster

Offline
Aug 2011
2514
Sora no Kiseki?
May 12, 2013 4:46 PM
#43
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
Spoke too soon again. It's a huge deal for it to grab rank 1, especially with Eva around.

Eva blu sold 30k+ in the latest ranking. An average of 4k per day.
May 13, 2013 2:42 PM
#44
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
Since SnK has ranked 1 again, I'm going to post what the number looks like when it's holding rank 1 partially.

http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?n=B00C38PQE2
Blu-ray:98516pt

http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?&n=B00C38RE38
DVD:20753pt

Current Estimated BD-DVD - 119269

If it manages whole day rank 1 - then, yikes! Especially with Eva around.
May 13, 2013 5:00 PM
#45
removed-user
Offline
Jul 2018
561864
When it comes to America (hopefully) I plan to buy Attack On Titan myself.
May 14, 2013 3:00 AM
#46
dhchen
Offline
Apr 2013
56
From the updated date it follows immediately that it can sell about 50K.
May 14, 2013 3:06 AM
#47
dhchen
Offline
Apr 2013
56
pming said:
Right now, stalker's estimating almost 70k BD-DVD for volume 1. It didn't go up in rank. (EVA too strong.) But I guess the longer it holds rank 2, the higher the estimate becomes?

I think it is impossible. 70K is even close to monogatari series or madoka. 50K would be safe. If it sell less than 20K, there must be something wrong.
May 14, 2013 3:08 AM
#48
Aoboba

Offline
Oct 2010
6315
Probably More Than 10. Thats What i Think. Maybe More




May 14, 2013 4:43 AM
#49
The_Dream

Offline
May 2013
13
Does the blu-ray come with English subtitles?
May 14, 2013 6:47 AM
#50
pming
Offline
Nov 2011
603
The_Dream said:
Does the blu-ray come with English subtitles?


Unfortunately, no. And I doubt such will be added. They're already printing the discs.

dhchen said:
pming said:
Right now, stalker's estimating almost 70k BD-DVD for volume 1. It didn't go up in rank. (EVA too strong.) But I guess the longer it holds rank 2, the higher the estimate becomes?

I think it is impossible. 70K is even close to monogatari series or madoka. 50K would be safe. If it sell less than 20K, there must be something wrong.


That's just the current estimate which is derived by adding up the points of the latest week and dividing that by 7 before multiplying by number of remaining days until release date.

Volume 1 has stayed in the top 5 for nearly a week now, that's why the forecast is so large. Once it falls down in ranks, the forecast will also go down.

If volume 1 manages to clear today with all rank 1s, I'll show the computation.
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