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Jul 15, 2013 3:49 PM
#101
Also the 11037 is most likely not a herring and was writtenby maizono If LEON is the killer, why incriminate himself / Why not erase it? if it is a herring, why LEON? is it much easier to blame Naegi since his close to Maizono and its his room when the killer realize the room was not Maizono's Maizono has some blood on his poiting finger where the 11037 is written, |
Jul 15, 2013 10:07 PM
#102
Fiveflower said: When you spell it out for me, it sounds a lot more logical and obvious, than it did in my head. Thanks a lot for the elaboration. Oh, and sorry if I sounded as if I wanted to imply that Anonymous_Player's language somehow makes understanding of the presented ideas more diificult, because it is totally not the case here. Not at all. In fact, it would be me who was implying that Anonymous_Player's writing was difficult to understand. The evidence that points to that argument is the fact I elaborated on his behalf without asking him. I'm the REAL asshole in this case! Anonymous_Player said: I was having a hard time proving his innocence MrOCD, are you the killer? LOL Why would he Kill Maizono in his own room knowing that it will be the greatest evidence pointing to him? Then again, it is not a strong alibi to use Who knows. My biggest guess is a gambit that bets on the life of the one who made it, that being Naegi. He did it in a attempt to make it look like someone else did. The fact that everyone (read: other students) is suspicious of Naegi, it's possible that they are thinking the same theory I made. Most of the evidence heavily points against him, so that makes his gambit a failure. Anonymous_Player said: Also the 11037 is most likely not a herring and was writtenby maizono If LEON is the killer, why incriminate himself / Why not erase it? if it is a herring, why LEON? is it much easier to blame Naegi since his close to Maizono and its his room when the killer realize the room was not Maizono's Maizono has some blood on his poiting finger where the 11037 is written, What if the dying message was made by Naegi, and he was the one who placed blood on Maizono's finger? The name chosen could have been anyone, Leon just so happened to be the one picked. Also, if Maizono's finger did not have blood on it, it would make it obvious that the message wasn't written by her, which would point out that the culprit set the dying message up if Maizono's finger wasn't bloodied. |
MrOCDJul 15, 2013 10:11 PM
Jul 15, 2013 11:09 PM
#103
After reading everyone's theories and re-examing my own...I have found the flaws in my theories (and some people have pointed it out). I've pieced everything together, and I think they fit quite nicely, so I present to you, my modified theories! Let me first state that I'm going to take a crack at it and explain what I think happened. I'll try my best to make sense, and I'll try my best to have as much supported evidence to show you I didn't just take some random guess. Alright...here we go xD (I've also tried to organize it to the best of my ability) My Theory (I copied and pasted this from my previous post) I highly suspect the culprit is...LEON. I base this conclusion on her death message 11037 and it is my belief that he is the one who killed Sayaka...with many complications that occur before that. ![]() My reasoning for why I think 11037 is NOT a red herring and is the truth- I don't think someone who is about to be murdered would write down a lie in their death message. I mean, it's their LAST words. It could be possible, but I think the reason she wrote it behind her was because she was probably already stabbed (hence the blood...the message was written in blood) so she was desperately trying to hide the message from the killer. If the killer saw it, wouldn't they erase it quickly? That means that she wrote it that way to make it so that didn't happen. HER finger is bloodied because she wrote it, and the culprit didn't use her finger to write that otherwise it wouldn't look like she was trying to cover it. It was also written upside down which proves that she wrote it with her back leaning on the wall. I think that Leon is responsible for Sayaka's death however it was not his intent to kill her, or at least when he walked into the room he was not aiming to kill her. I'm not saying he's innocent or it was an accident since he ended up killing her when she was left defenseless, but I believe that Sayaka was actually trying to kill him, and in the process of this she was killed. In other words, she got herself killed by trying to kill Leon. My reason for thinking Sayaka isn't completely innocent: In episode 1 she had a mental breakdown, and according to the DVD Naegi saw, it's no wonder she started panicing because she wanted to desperately get out, so she was planning to kill someone. Why Leon? I'm not sure she was targeting him or it was someone random, but I do know that she invited him in the room (otherwise...how would he get in?) and I believe she purposely switched rooms with Naegi. Because there was that sword in his room, she saw that if she was plotting to kill someone, she would have a better chance of success using that weapon Sequence of Events (I had a lot of trouble with this one) ***JUST A WARNING: this is...pretty long xD prepare yourself The time of death according to the Monobear file is estimated to be around 1:30 AM and the corpse was found in Naegi Makoto's room in the dorm area. This means that Sayaka was killed at Night time AFTER the room switch with Naegi. I tried to sequence the events visually on the map, and will try to guide you through my thoughts, organizing them with letters A,B,C,D, and E. Explainations for what happened at those letters will be explained below the map. Also, don't mind the little illustrations, haha I got kind of bored,...o__o sorry lol (The red 'X' means that place is off limits) ![]() A- Sayaka goes to the kitchen to get the knife. The reason I put this as the first event that happens is because it was mentioned in the information provided in the first post (by MrOCD) that the kitchen is off-limits at night time, correct? So I assume that this happened before the room exchange and before everything else happens. I also am under the suspicion that she planned this out earlier on in the day, so the room exchange and getting the knife was carefully planned out from the start. How do I know that Sayaka is the one that got the knife and not the culprit? I'm under the assumption that the culprit unknowingly walked into her room without the intent to kill because they were lured there. The culprit couldn't have made it in the room unless they had the key, and Sayaka wouldn't open the door if she was innocent, because who would invite someone random in the room in the middle of the night? She also even told Naegi that she wouldn't open the door if it was him (who she trusts), so clearly there's something suspicious going on already. With this being said, that person (who I suspect to be Leon) must have not carried a weapon in her room. It wasn't in Naegi's room before, therefore only Sayaka could've gotten it. How do I know that knife is from the kitchen? Actually...I previously just assumed that was the weapon she got when Monobear said he was going to give a little "present" to everyone, but someone here posted a picture of the knives at the kitchen and they look very familiar to the one that was found at the crime scene so I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually from there. "mikado34" said: The knife clearly belongs in the kitchen and since that area is off limit in night time, any one could have taken one during the evening, in this case Maizono. ![]() I draw my conclusion of the knife being from the kitchen from mikado34, but it is quite possible that Sayaka got it from her room as well, since I don't remember seeing her weapon that Monobear left in her room when they exchanged rooms. Either way, it doesn't make that much a difference I guess. A knife is a knife. B- The room exchange happens. This is the part in the episode where Sayaka knocks on the door Naegi's door, tells about the "door rattling" which is probably a lie she told considering how she was trying to trick Naegi into changing rooms with him....She takes advantage of him knowing that he's easy to deceive and would do anything to help 'protect' her so she uses him. I thought she asked for the room exchange to get a hold of thethe sword in his room, but then I thought about it but how would she know that there was a sword in his room? o__o Also...why would she have gotten the knife in the first place if she knew that there would be a weapon in his room? So, she's not the one who used the golden sword, and the only other reason left that explains she'd WANT to switch room and did it purposely is because she was trying to frame him? I can't think of any other reason that makes sense. Anyways, so that happens, and probably when they switch she switches the room signs. That part when she's staring intensely at something...I feel like that's the part when she commences her plan to kill. But in order to kill, she has to lure someone into the room, and this method that she uses is probably one of the things I had the most trouble with. C- Sayaka lures her victim into Naegi's room. The victim must have walked to the room not knowing this was actually Naegi's room because of the switched name room plates. I still have two theories about why the room plates were switched and I honestly think it could work either way. The second reason seems kind of ridiculous but hey...you never know o__o 1) Sayaka switches the room plates right after their room exchange so that she can lure her victim into the room she's staying (Naegi's room) 2) Leon (the culprit I suspect) switches the room plates after he kills Sayaka because he's confused why Naegi's nameplate was on the room Sayaka was staying in (in other words he was confused and switched it to "make it right" when he's actually doing the opposite) It seems pointless since it doesn't really help or reveal who he is...but I don' t know, it is possible he just did that. The next part I'll attempt to explain is how exactly Sayaka got her victim into the room, because it doesn't make sense for someone just to show up at the door. I have two reasons, but I always put the reason I'm leaning more towards first, but I put the other one there just in case...lol you never know. 1) Sayaka got her victim in the room through ways of communicating, and she could've actually just secretly whispered to someone to "meet her in her room", but I don't think she's that stupid. People would perhaps overhear their conversation or find it suspicious. There could be witnesses anywhere, and she's planning to kill him so she has to be secretive. I NEVER even noticed the notepad people were talking about in this thread...so when someone brought it up I started getting all excited. Excited in a confused kind of way. Here's the post I read- "AnimeFan500 " said: I noticed Kirigi looked at something( a notepad? ) before she noticed the room change. Could something important been on there? Also when everyone suspected Naegi as the murderer, why didn't he show Maizono's room key? This could prove his innocent unless he shows this during the class trial. I didn't know if there was actually a notepad, so I asked for a screenshot (I've got to ask for evidence of the evidence lol) and someone was kind enough to post it, so I'll repost it here: "DenjaX" said: Kirigiri looking at notepad during investigation. ![]() Here's my thinking process- IF that was a notepad then...why a notepad? I don't remember Naegi writing a note, so it's written by Sayaka? But it wouldn't mean that she necessarily wrote something since it was a notepad..but wouldn't those kind of things usually be found inside drawers or inside a desk? If a notepad was found on the crime scene it could've been used to perhaps...write down a plan? xD notepads are used to write things down, but who would be stupid enough to write down a to-do-note and their plan to kill someone? So would this mean it was a note to someone else...could it be a way of communicating with someone? OH MY GOD I THIINK I'VE FIGURED IT OUT. Sayaka used that notepad to write a note to someone that could lure someone into her room, or where she was staying which is Naegi's room. That would also mean that she was the one who switched the signs to lure that person into the room. Wait, but if there was just a notepad that means that the note is probably gone and they'll have difficulty finding that out during the triall...I just don't understand why Sayaka would plan all this in Naegi's room, I mean was the room exchange necessary? Clearly she was trying to kill someone so that means she was trying to frame Naegi? I'm not sure but if that was her intention I knew she couldn't be trusted. Gosh, it's always the sweet and people that appear all nice and innocent that backstab others...o___o As you can see, I had an epiphany. THE NOTE PAD WAS USED TO LURE THE VICTIM IN!!! Oh gosh, I felt like a ray of light shined on me, and I was just bathed in awesomeness. Okay, slight exaggeration but I was so happy!! 2) Maybe...she just went out of the room and saw him, told him to follow her into the room, and the notepad was just found there because it was supposed to be there. I'm not sure where the notepad is placed in the room, but maybe it was just found there before? I don't think this possibility is likely since it was freaking KIRIGI staring at it, but who knows...that's why I think the first reason is more solid. Kirigi knows what she's staring at xD and they wouldn't just show that just because. There must be a reason. I'm not certain when she left a note, or where she did it, but she must've targed Leon from the start? I don't know if she just randomly left a note there, but I'm assuming that Leon picked it up and read it even if it was not intended for him. Because why would Sayaka target one of the strongest students? He's extremely good at baseball...so I'm not sure if he was actually supposed to be her victim. Mehh...whatever in the end he read it. I'm assuming that the note said something like this: "Meet me at my room at ___ o'clock (probably a designated time...maybe it's 1:25 since she died at 1:30?)" -Sayaka" She probably said something along the lines of "I need to give you something" or "we need to talk" or "I have to confess my feelings for you". Point is, whatever she said lead him into the room. I think it might've been the last one because who WOULDN'T go into the room in the middle of the night knowing that an idol was going to confess her feelings to you. Leon, my friend, I understand you, but next time put your life first. Leon walks into her room which is ACTUALLY Naegi's...she opens it and attacks him! The next part takes place in the room. I think the nameplate had to be switched by Sayaka since Leon would've walked into the room that said "Maizono"...but my previous idea isn't immediately canceled out since it is possible she signed the note as Naegi and told him to meet at Naegi's room since she's trying to frame him...? D- Sayaka tries to kill Leon, but in the process of this things take a turn of events, and she is actually the one that is killed. I attempted to illustrate what I think happened (PLEASE excuse my horrible artistic skills...I thought stick figures should suffice but I got a little excited and went all out...I apologize beforehand if your eyes start bleeding) To be honest, I actually forgot what Sayaka looked like so I just drew those two pigtails and thought they should be enough. I'd let the picture do the talking, but with what I drew I think I'm going to NEED to explain lol ![]() 1) Bushy-eyebrowed Sayaka takes her knife and tries to kill him, but fails multiple times (because I don't think she has very good aim) which explains the signs of struggle around the room (slashes). I initially thought they were from the golden sword but someone (MrOCD) pointed out that if she used the golden sword, her entire palm would've been gold because the paint comes off easily. Instead..there's only a little spot of gold paint on her wrist based on this image: ![]() So she stabs him and the culprit is running around the room for his dear life because he walked in without knowing what the heck was going on. He was probably thinking something like, "I WAS HERE FOR A CONFESSION, BUT SHE STARTS STABBING ME AND SWINING A KNIFE AT ME? WTF? RUNN FOR MY LAIFFEEEE!!" This is why you SHOULD NOT tell a woman to go back to the kitchen as a sexist joke. The kitchen is where the knives are found. Think over it a little while, it'll come to you xD 2) This one's kind of hard to tell by the picture...umm well after all that running around the room I actually thought about how Leon could possibly dodge ALL the shots. Sure, he's an high school super duper all-star or whatever, but I think he would get slashed at least ONCE by her so I'm going to take a guess and say that he used something to defend himself. The object I would guess that he uses is the scabbard or whatever it's called since I recall seeing slash marks on it. He uses that to protect himself, and hits her wrist with it(?) so she drops the knife. This also explains her fractured wrist and the little gold stain. I'm not sure if the scabbard's paint comes off too...but I don't think he used the knife to stop her otherwise her entire wrist would be gone lol. How do I know all of this? If you want, you can take a look at my thinking process (spoiled because it's quite long and I ramble a lot xD)- Sayaka couldn't have been the one using the golden sword. It was in Naegi's room, correct? So...that means that the knife is the weapon she used and those slash marks were made by the knife if it wasn't her holding the sword? I'm under the assumption that Leon was lured into her room somehow (not sure why or how), but meant no harm entering in after all she invited him...so the slash marks are made by the knife. Hmm...then when does the sword go into use? That means that Leon was the one who used the sword? She has a gold spot on her wrist, and it's broken so that means she was hit by it? I got really confused for a second because I thought that there were two swords, and I had to google what a "scabbard" was. Never heard of that word. Is that the case? Even after googling I'm still sort of confused lol so does the scabbard leave stains too? If not, then is it possible that Leon used the sword and she held on to the scabbard to defend herself? Or maybe she used the scabbard as a weapon? Leon wouldn't attack her the moment he entered the room so it's possible that it was actually him who used the scabbard to defend himself since I think I see scratch marks on it. Or maybe he used the scabbard to hit her wrist, and that's where the gold stain came from? Not from the sword? It only makes sense to have him hold the scabbard probably to defend himself since there are so many signs of struggle around the room he was probably dodging for his life, but after so many marks around the room he couldn't have dodged every single one of them even if she isn't skillful using the sword so he had to have some kind of a shield. He could've easily used the sword as defense as well...but I guess you wouldn't use a sword unless you had an intention to kill. 3) Sayaka, who's weaponless and helpless runs into the bathroom since she KNOWS how to open the door because Naegi taught her. The culprit tries to open it, but it doesn't open. He's probably under the assumption that it was locked since he thought that he was in Sayaka's room and the girl's bathroom door is locked. 4) Leon uses the tool box kit thing (either his or Naegi's...I wouldn't think it would matter but maybe Naegi's because it's closer and he would have to leave and go get his which would take kind of long and maybe Sayaka could escape during this time) to open the door, corners Sayaka, and stabs her in the abdomen with the knife. I didn't draw that because it was too violent and I don't think I'd be able to capture it right xD By the way, one of the tools is a screwdriver. Don't laugh. I tried, okay? lol Here's the map that corresponds with what happens after the murder- ![]() Alrightt!! Almost done with the sequence! So, Leon is done killing Sayaka, he probably is going to start hiding all the evidence now so no one knows he's been there. His shirt is probably covered in blood after killing her, so he can't just throw that stuff away because people can find it, so what does he do? He burns it. Why do I think his shirt is covered in blood? This is why there is a scrap of his clothes found near the incinerator. It's not Sayaka's sleeve piece because hers is still there as I examined from the photo, so it would make sense if it was his. ![]() Now, why did I make his route to the left and not the right (his route I drew on the map is dotted)? I did this because Leon would probably be smart enough to know that there are people down that hallway (since it's his room's hallway) so to sneak around in the middle of the night, he chose the left route to make his way to the incinerator. Last, but not least... E- Leon opens the incinerator to hide his evidence (bloody shirt) I had the MOST difficulty figuring out this part. I knew that he somehow found a way to open the incinerator even though it said on the first post that it was locked, and that otaku (Yamada I think it was?) was the only person with the key. I was SUPER confused why the glass ball was there. I at first thought that the fortune teller dude was standing near the incinerator for no reason in the middle of the night, Sayaka passed by saw her fortune (her death) and she got mad and smashed it...Leon heard the smash since his room is nearby so he heard it and followed her back to her room. That made sense at the time but HOW THE HECK WOULD HE HAVE OPENED THE INCINERATOR?! If someone were to ask me where I think the glass ball is from...or why it's even there in the first place...I can't really answer that because I don't know. o____o ummm...I knew that it must've been used to open the incinerator since it was found inside of it for some strange reason (also broken so it was probably thrown), but how it was obtained remains a mystery to me. It could be quite possible that it was stolen at some point? When and how, I'm not quite sure of. Maybe it was lying on the ground somewhere? It was a present? Someone dropped it there? The culprit secretly is a fortune teller himself and practices those kind of things in his free time? The possibilities are endless and I have absolutely no clue xD I still can't figure that part out, but I tried to focus more on the incinerator situation and then thought, "hmm...maybe he could've just thrown the shirt in there? I mean he is a baseball player and can pitch." I actually got this idea from reading someone's post- "mikado34" said: Leon used his skills as baseball player and could have used the ball of glass inside the shirt to reach the incinerator, since you need a key to access the area. I just can't figure out if the incinerator was turned on at this time. I agreed with this theory and believed that the incinerator was off assuming that it was night time and it was probably locked since there is a key needed for it to open. He had to have opened it somehow. He can't just walk in there and throw it in. It is possible that Leon threw the shirt with the glass ball which explains why it was shattered, but then I looked at the picture of the incinerator and noticed how it would probably be kind of hard to fit both a shirt and glass ball inside together. Picture of the incinerator- ![]() My next thought was, "okay, so maybe he couldn't have opened it by himself nor could he throw it, but maybe in the morning Yamada (or whatever that otaku's name is) opened it for him, and he kind of just threw it in secretly?" That is probably the stupidest reasoning I've ever made since that is EXTREMELY suspicious behavior and he would've had to hold on to the bloody shirt in his hand. Leon holding a bloody shirt behind his back Leon: umm excuse me, Yamada can you open the incinerator for me? Yamada: SURE THINGG~ Leon walks away with bloody shirt in hand and gets away with it. Nothing suspicious going on here, and he wouldn't TOTALLY get busted during the class trial when Yamada opens his mouth and tells everyone "oh yeahh I remember Leon walking up to me this morning and he told me to open the incinerator. He also burned a bloody shirt in there but that's completelyyy normal" NO. JUST NO. OF COURSE HE WOULD BE FOUND OUT! Okay, so that's crossed out definitely. Plus, this wouldn't explain WHY THE GLASS BALL WAS THERE. Unless fortune teller was burning stuff too and his crystal ball broke but that wouldn't really make all that much sense. I desperately tried to search for an answer, and I thought that since his opening of the incinerator had to do with the glass ball, he must've somehow used it to open it up. SOMEHOW. I thought about it over and over again, but then I wondered if there could be a button inside the incinerator to OPEN/CLOSE it as well. If the was a key needed to open it from the outside, then it wouldn't be needed on the inside, correct? If there was a button outside of the incinerator, it was probably for closing it when you stand outside. That means that when you stand inside the incinerator, there's probably a button inside that closes it but doesn't need a key to activate it (because it's inside). Leon must've thrown the glass ball inside to hit that button, opened the incinerator gate, thrown the shirt in, and shut the gate from the outside again. His shirt left a scarp (didn't burn completely) and he goes back to his room! How do I know there's a button inside the incinerator? I'm not actually sure, but I do know that it's outside of it according to this picture: ![]() (notice the red button) I'm not sure how far away from the door the button is (inside the incinerator) but considering how Leon is pretty darn good at throwing because he's the all-star, I'm pretty sure he would've been able to hit it. Also, my theory about the fortune teller guy is yet again wrong because of the simple fact that the glass ball was found INSIDE the incinerator and I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be telling fortunes near an incinerator xD that doesn't make sense Proving Naegi's innocence The culprit seemed to have not known that it was Naegi's room he went into. I mean, that person took the tool kit and opened it that way. The real culprit must've mistakened it for Sayaka's bathroom which is locked because a girls bathrooms in their room are locked, correct? Then if he had to take measure to unscrew it, something tells me that...the culprit mistakened Naegi's room for Sayaka's room. I mean it makes sense right? If the culprit didn't know about the room switch, then it couldn't have been Naegi who tried to kill her because he was the one who agreed to it. I think that this'll only convince all the others if someone testifies to how his bathroom door is actually broken....the only one who could do that is Sayaka and she's dead. There is a possibility that Monobear could say something, but it is possible he could stay quiet and smile sadistically watching him trying to prove his innocence...sounds like a HUGE possibility actually xD My hand literally hurts from writing so much. I actually didn't just write this all out to finally organize my thoughts, but my intention was that I kind of wanted to figure out if I was at least some what close and didn't go way off tangent, so can someone PM me and maybe reassure me that I'm at least some what close to what actually happened? It's killing me and I hope I'm not that far off from the truth, but DON'T TELL ME WHERE I GUESSED WRONG! I'd just like to know if I got at least some of it right (but don't tell me what I got right!) Maybe pointing some things out (flaws) in my theories/sequence of events/proof for Naegi's innocence could also help me out because that's helped me a lot these past few days. The suspense is REALLY kill me, lol but I can't wait to watch the class trial! This is probably going to kill me every week lol I'm dying to know what actually happened but I won't give in! I will persevere and try my best not to check any spoilers of what actually happened o__o; |
EarlCielJul 15, 2013 11:30 PM
Jul 15, 2013 11:13 PM
#104
I bet it's the MC. He just denying it, but he was sleep walking and whenever to go kill idol girl. |
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Jul 15, 2013 11:58 PM
#105
EarlCiel said: After reading everyone's theories and re-examing my own...I have found the flaws in my theories (and some people have pointed it out). I've pieced everything together, and I think they fit quite nicely, so I present to you, my modified theories! ... The suspense is REALLY kill me, lol but I can't wait to watch the class trial! This is probably going to kill me every week lol I'm dying to know what actually happened but I won't give in! I will persevere and try my best not to check any spoilers of what actually happened o__o; I highly suggest everyone to listen to the game's climax BGM while reading this. The same BGM used when putting the order of events in a manga-esque form. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-ckGji2Mcg - Sorry, there is no extended version of the music. Avoid the spoilers on youtube! Edit: @EarlCiel's theory About the events of the Incinerator and Trash Room... You are placing the logic that you think a switch exists from within the gates. But is there a need for it? The purpose of having it there would mean that if someone was to use it, they would close the gate from inside the incinerator area, but then why does one need to close the incinerator from the inside then? Because one may get locked inside if someone was to close it from the outside? Assuming that only one key exists, then this may explain the entire logic behind this. Someone could have purposely been an ass to trap someone if they were inside. There is nothing wrong with this logic. I just wanted to make sure if this is what you mean about the Incinerator and the key mechanism, and the possibility of a switch existing. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay, I see what is wrong with your logic of the incinerator. What we know is that a key is probably needed to open the gate from outside the incinerator. Your theory suggests that you can open/close the gate from the inside. Then how did Leon manage to close the gate if he was the one who threw the glass ball to the hypothetical switch? From the anime, we can see at the start of the investigation that the gates were closed. Something is amiss with this part. I'd call you the Super Duper High School Sleuth for this alone. More effort than the majority who are wild-mass-guessing. Without a doubt they would probably snark back if their guess was correct, despite it possibly being a red herring. Also, your drawings are adorable. Such innocent looking things doing evil around the place. |
MrOCDJul 16, 2013 3:01 AM
Jul 16, 2013 12:24 AM
#106
Most of the theory will be based on presumptions like what flower said. Most of the evidences/ statements/ accounts will be revealed in the trial Can't wait for Ep3. |
Jul 16, 2013 1:39 AM
#107
EarlCiel said: -epic deduction- I would really like to give you a cookie... lol |
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Jul 16, 2013 4:08 AM
#108
EarlCiel said: D- Sayaka tries to kill Leon, but in the process of this things take a turn of events, and she is actually the one that is killed. I attempted to illustrate what I think happened (PLEASE excuse my horrible artistic skills...I thought stick figures should suffice but I got a little excited and went all out...I apologize beforehand if your eyes start bleeding) To be honest, I actually forgot what Sayaka looked like so I just drew those two pigtails and thought they should be enough. I'd let the picture do the talking, but with what I drew I think I'm going to NEED to explain lol ![]() 1) Bushy-eyebrowed Sayaka takes her knife and tries to kill him, but fails multiple times (because I don't think she has very good aim) which explains the signs of struggle around the room (slashes). I initially thought they were from the golden sword but someone (MrOCD) pointed out that if she used the golden sword, her entire palm would've been gold because the paint comes off easily. This picture is epic. I now endorse this theory. The only thing I don't like about it is that the dying message = killer seems so simple and straightforward--a little bit too much so. However, I suppose for the Japanese audience, using English to spell out a name is actually not quite as obvious as it would be to us. XP |
Jul 16, 2013 8:28 AM
#109
kaimax said: EarlCiel said: -epic deduction- Wow, what a very nice deduction you have there. I can't wait to see your performance on the later cases. xDD One thing though under B sequence of events. Remember in episode 1 Sayaka was in Naegi's room after Oowada punched him down? She could probably seen the golden sword there. It was displayed after all. xDD |
Jul 16, 2013 8:44 AM
#110
@kaimax- ;;___; I love cookies <3 You don't have to haha I think that everyone deserves a cookies because by posting our individual theories, we can draw from the theories of others and use them if they make sense in our own. I certainly couldn't have done it myself lol MrOCD said: @EarlCiel's theory About the events of the Incinerator and Trash Room... You are placing the logic that you think a switch exists from within the gates. But is there a need for it? The purpose of having it there would mean that if someone was to use it, they would close the gate from inside the incinerator area, but then why does one need to close the incinerator from the inside then? Because one may get locked inside if someone was to close it from the outside? Assuming that only one key exists, then this may explain the entire logic behind this. Someone could have purposely been an ass to trap someone if they were inside. There is nothing wrong with this logic. I just wanted to make sure if this is what you mean about the Incinerator and the key mechanism, and the possibility of a switch existing. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay, I see what is wrong with your logic of the incinerator. What we know is that a key is probably needed to open the gate from outside the incinerator. Your theory suggests that you can open/close the gate from the inside. Then how did Leon manage to close the gate if he was the one who threw the glass ball to the hypothetical switch? From the anime, we can see at the start of the investigation that the gates were closed. Something is amiss with this part. I'd call you the Super Duper High School Sleuth for this alone. More effort than the majority who are wild-mass-guessing. Without a doubt they would probably snark back if their guess was correct, despite it possibly being a red herring. Also, your drawings are adorable. Such innocent looking things doing evil around the place. That soundtrack is sounds so...epic!! xD I can already feel the tense atmosphere that they're probably going to have in the class trial and it's sending chills down my back. THANK YOU for that spoiler warning. I really needed that warning because Danganronpa is something I avoid searching on Youtube just because of my fear of the spoilers and something I LOVE to do is check the comment section below. I also tried to look up some fanart, but thankfully it was nothing out of the ordinary, but I remember someone (maybe it was on another thread?) warning about the fanart so I'm staying away from that as well. Thanks for your compliments, but I actually started off taking wild guesses from the beginning actually, xD To be honest, I started off wild-mass-guessing as well, but when you start doing that (multiple times) you realize how illogical those guesses are and while you're finding the flaws and try to "look deeper", you learn from them and build from them. Initially, I was one of the many who thought that Sayaka set her death up and suicides to throw a bunch of people off, but then I noticed how the door was opened that way (when she knew how to open it) and the sleeve found in the incinerator that didn't belong to her didn't make sense, so I began to suspect that if I thought she was crazy enough to kill herself, than there was a possibility she was crazy to kill someone else considering her mental state. I thought back to her mental breakdown in episode 1, thought about the room exchange idea she proposed to Naegi, and everything started to build up just from thinking that she killed herself. As for the the part about the incinerator in my theory- I'm not really sure where I was going with the whole button/switch idea, but I came up with that idea after realizing that when you get in the incinerator, you should be able to close the gate while you're inside kind of like a garage. If you're perhaps cleaning up or want to close the gate while you're inside, but you should also be able to open it from the inside otherwise there would be no way to go outside. Also, no key should be needed once you're inside, because the purpose of the key should be so that no one can freely enter the incinerator, so once you're in no key should really be necessary to close or open the gate, right? I really am modeling how the incinerator gate functions using my own garage door (lol I don't know if that's the best way to think of it, but I can't really think of it using any other way) You're right about how Leon would be able to close it under these circumstances. Hmm... I never thought about how Leon would be able to close it if he opens it from the inside, but it's possible that on the outside there's a switch that only closes the gate? There's a key for if you want to open it, but it could be possible that the switch on the outside is used to close the incinerator, while the key is to open. Placed for convenience maybe? There could be a possibility that Leon left the incinerator open in the morning maybe? Yamada (or whatever that otaku's name is...I keep forgetting and I'm too lazy to check xD) could've maybe walked in sometime in the morning and seen it open, only to close it again quickly after thinking maybe he accidentally left it open over the night. I'm not sure this would be the best guess since that's highly suspicious and Leon wouldn't just walk out of there without closing the gate because that by itself could be evidence that could point to him, but he's not the smartest person so it's quite possible...? He was smart enough to burn the shirt (not completely, but he tried) so I"m not really sure.. Thanks for the compliment about the drawings! lol I really got carried away doodling on the map. It's not the best, but I'm glad you liked it. I honestly tried my best to explain myself only using words, but thought adding that visual representation might help others (and to help me understand where I'm going with an idea) . @NorseFTX- I really am crossing my fingers and hoping it isn't a red herring...lol otherwise I'll feel like I'm betraying anyone who reads my theory and my post and endorses it. I'm pretty sure that death message is truthful, though since the way she looks like she's trying to hide it and just the way it was written (upside down) seems like too much of a coincidence if someone else wrote that. |
EarlCielJul 16, 2013 8:52 AM
Jul 16, 2013 8:51 AM
#111
DenjaX said: Wow, what a very nice deduction you have there. I can't wait to see your performance on the later cases. xDD One thing though under B sequence of events. Remember in episode 1 Sayaka was in Naegi's room after Oowada punched him down? She could probably seen the golden sword there. It was displayed after all. xDD Thanks! :D Actually...I'm very worried about the later cases because someone noted how it would get a lot harder. Yeah, if it's going to get that hard I'm probably going to have a lot of trouble and my brain will start hurting a lot. It actually took me almost a good week to finalize everything, and in the beginning I was one of the many people freaking out and taking wild guesses. I still am freaking out because the harder it gets the more I'm probably going to freak out so even I won't know what state of mind I'll be in when I'm trying to crack the other cases. Hopefully I'll still be sane ;___; & I never thought about how she could've possibly been in his room the first episode... Hmm yeah then I guess that could be a possibility but then the whole knife situation wouldn't really make sense because it wouldn't seem necessary to get a knife if she was going to go to his room for the sword anyways. Maybe she figured out that the gold paint came off easily and decided to switch weapons? I'm not completely sure |
Jul 16, 2013 9:06 AM
#112
^Also about your theory on the incinerator room. If the culprit managed to open the shutter and throw the evidence, why leave the scrap of evidence(burn cloth and glass shards)? That would definitely ruin his perfect crime... EDIT: Also, what is this supposed to be?: xDD ![]() Nah, just kidding. I really like your drawing.... so adorable. I also laughed a lot with your other possibility to counter your theories like Hagekure staying INSIDE the incinerator room under closed shutters just to tell a fortune. My sides xDD If you go deeper into his character, that wouldn't be surprising at all. xDD |
DenjaXJul 16, 2013 9:15 AM
Jul 16, 2013 9:50 AM
#113
@Earl: OMG!! Genius deduction. You'd make a great detective like Sherlock Holmes. : ) You deserve a hand shake and now I take a bow before you. @Kaimax: Thank you for that link. It made reading Earl's finalized theory EPIC!!! About the Incinerator theory: Edit: Could it be possible that he used the crystal ball as a wedge to keep the gate from closing? He could slipped under it, throw his clothes in the incinerator. But due to the glass ball about to break he didn't have time to completely get rid of bloody clothes. When he got out, he kicked the ball and it rolled near the incinerator and broke. |
AnimeFan500Jul 16, 2013 10:09 AM
Jul 16, 2013 10:29 AM
#114
Now, I'm going into radio silence until the trial is done. :) No more hints and pointers from me. |
kaimaxJul 16, 2013 10:33 AM
Visit this blog That I'm working with my friend http://randomnessthing.com/ |
Jul 16, 2013 10:35 AM
#115
EarlCiel said: That soundtrack is sounds so...epic!! xD I can already feel the tense atmosphere that they're probably going to have in the class trial and it's sending chills down my back. THANK YOU for that spoiler warning. I really needed that warning because Danganronpa is something I avoid searching on Youtube just because of my fear of the spoilers and something I LOVE to do is check the comment section below. I also tried to look up some fanart, but thankfully it was nothing out of the ordinary, but I remember someone (maybe it was on another thread?) warning about the fanart so I'm staying away from that as well. Yeah, I also recommend you to not look for fanart or even original artwork of the characters. They themselves are too spoilery. Stumbling upon something you shouldn't know about, I mean ANYTHING will spoil the whole story. It's just that big. EarlCiel said: Thanks for your compliments, but I actually started off taking wild guesses from the beginning actually, xD To be honest, I started off wild-mass-guessing as well, but when you start doing that (multiple times) you realize how illogical those guesses are and while you're finding the flaws and try to "look deeper", you learn from them and build from them. Initially, I was one of the many who thought that Sayaka set her death up and suicides to throw a bunch of people off, but then I noticed how the door was opened that way (when she knew how to open it) and the sleeve found in the incinerator that didn't belong to her didn't make sense, so I began to suspect that if I thought she was crazy enough to kill herself, than there was a possibility she was crazy to kill someone else considering her mental state. I thought back to her mental breakdown in episode 1, thought about the room exchange idea she proposed to Naegi, and everything started to build up just from thinking that she killed herself. Oh, I think you are misunderstanding something. I knew I should have put the word "just" in that post. It would have said "More effort than the majority who are just wild-mass-guessing." Taking wild guesses is all part of solving mysteries. "If you can still feel fear, then you can still imagine." is what Kirigiri would say. It's just that one should continue to seek the truth instead of settling with the easy solution. Man, I sound like I'm speaking like a game character. Now I feel dorky. (Implying that I'm not already a dork.) EarlCiel said: Ooooh, I didn't consider that. I don't have a problem with the idea of having a switch within the gate. I just wanted to know how you thought of the idea. It's all good. :)As for the the part about the incinerator in my theory- I'm not really sure where I was going with the whole button/switch idea, but I came up with that idea after realizing that when you get in the incinerator, you should be able to close the gate while you're inside kind of like a garage. If you're perhaps cleaning up or want to close the gate while you're inside, but you should also be able to open it from the inside otherwise there would be no way to go outside. Also, no key should be needed once you're inside, because the purpose of the key should be so that no one can freely enter the incinerator, so once you're in no key should really be necessary to close or open the gate, right? I really am modeling how the incinerator gate functions using my own garage door (lol I don't know if that's the best way to think of it, but I can't really think of it using any other way) EarlCiel said: You're right about how Leon would be able to close it under these circumstances. Hmm... I never thought about how Leon would be able to close it if he opens it from the inside, but it's possible that on the outside there's a switch that only closes the gate? There's a key for if you want to open it, but it could be possible that the switch on the outside is used to close the incinerator, while the key is to open. Placed for convenience maybe? Ah, I see. There is nothing to deny it being a possibility. It does seem to be the most logical. EarlCiel said: Yeah, now that you mention it... the only way for your logic to make sense about the culprit not burning every piece of the clothing would be that he was being too laid-back or maybe tired after the drama. It's a possibility, but I'd like it if you consider that not being the case. What if he didn't overlook that part of the incinerator? Could there be another reason to why the clothing didn't have everything incinerated? So many variables to consider.There could be a possibility that Leon left the incinerator open in the morning maybe? Yamada (or whatever that otaku's name is...I keep forgetting and I'm too lazy to check xD) could've maybe walked in sometime in the morning and seen it open, only to close it again quickly after thinking maybe he accidentally left it open over the night. I'm not sure this would be the best guess since that's highly suspicious and Leon wouldn't just walk out of there without closing the gate because that by itself could be evidence that could point to him, but he's not the smartest person so it's quite possible...? He was smart enough to burn the shirt (not completely, but he tried) so I"m not really sure.. Canon or not, your story of the events that took place is great, and I think you deserve a good rest. |
MrOCDJul 16, 2013 10:38 AM
Jul 16, 2013 10:45 AM
#116
I am stuck determing whether or not the letters spell out of the killer or was it planted. |
Jul 16, 2013 11:23 AM
#117
ponygon123 said: I am stuck determing whether or not the letters spell out of the killer or was it planted. Is it just the dying message you are confused about? Thinking about how the dying message appeared would get you nowhere unless you can pair it up with some evidence to how it happened. We cannot tell you if it was made by Maizono or the culprit. All we can do is tell you if something doesn't make sense, as in if something contradicts evidence 'A' or 'B'. But you can try to think of how either of them did it and shape the whole story from there. In my opinion, you should start off by focusing on the Monobear file. Everything on the Monobear file is fact. And because the murder weapon was the knife, you should think about why it was used, and where it came from. From there, you should look at Maizono Sayaka. We know for a fact that she died in the bathroom thanks to the Monobear file. Check for everything that may be related. Her right hand, the blood on the wall, and the doorknob. After that you should go backwards from how the murder happened. Think about what happened before Maizono Sayaka got stabbed. And also think about what happened after she gets stabbed. Do remember that not everything from the anime has been listed as evidence. The reason being is because they may be of no relevance to the case from a normal person's point of view. |
Jul 16, 2013 2:59 PM
#118
Ok, now I'm really having second thoughts about the bloody message. Until now I didn't stare to much at the victim picture and just assumed she would have used her right hand to write because it made sense, but this is not the case. Her bloody fingertip is on the left hand, and it's a really awkward position to write anything like that. Try sitting like her and use your left hand on the wall. It's impossible writing at that exact place on the wall! Maybe she didn't write it after all O_O Another thing I find odd is the way the blood is everywhere. From what we know she only got one stab wound in her stomach. How did it get on the wall behind her in that manner? How come her clothes not as bloody as the floor beneath her? Aaaargh, maybe I'm wrong but it's complicated. I'm seeing a lot of contradictions in that victim picture, it's killing meee D: |
Jul 16, 2013 4:22 PM
#119
Alright so here is my theory so far. I haven't seen any of the theories written afterwards as I am only looking at the OP here for the evidence list. Any points of uncertainty will be highlighted in purple and will be addressed in another section. I will also just follow the red truth/blue truth system from Umineko. Sequence of Events: Maizono Sayaka sees the DVD and gets scared and desperate to leave and formulates a plan to kill Leon, frame Naegi, and get out of the school. She makes the lie about the sounds on her door to switch rooms with Naegi shortly before the Night Time alarm. When Naegi is in Maizono's room and has locked the door, Maizono switches the nameplates on the door. At some point between 10PM and 1AM, she somehow lured Leon into Naegi's room. At about 1:15-1:20, Leon enters Naegi's room and Maizono shuts the door. She then turns to face Leon and pulls out the knife and starts to attack him. Leon, being an athlete, easily dodges her attacks as she chases him. A good number of Maizono's attacks miss and hit the wall leaving those slashes. Leon notices the katana and unsheathes it to defend himself as a result, knocks the blade out of her hand with the backside of the blade after parrying it at the end of the blade multiple times. At this point, Leon sees the opportunity to go in for the kill and goes after Maizono who runs into the bathroom and closes the door. Unable to open the door, Leon assumes that it is locked. As such, he uses the "gift" in Naegi's desk drawer to dismantle the doorknob and enter. He then pick up the knife and stabs Maizono in the abdomen while she leans against the glass door. Immediately afterwards, Leon leaves the knife and runs out of the room and shuts the door to Naegi's room. After this, Maizono was still alive and wrote the dying message with her blood. At this point, he enters the incinerator room and disposes of his bloody clothes and returns to his room after closing the incinerator and returning to his room. Explanation for the Evidence: Monobear File 01: The estimated time of death is 1:30 AM. Satisfied by the theory's time frame for the fight. The corpse was found in Naegi's room. The victim died in the bathroom. Also accounted for by the theory. Apart from having a knife stuck in her abdomen, her right wrist also appears to be fractured. Right wrist was hit by the blunt side of the katana preventing a slash and causing the fracture. This lead to Maizono dropping the knife. Knife: Will be addressed under points of uncertainty. Gold Sword with & Without Scabbard: Upon finding the sword, the sword's scabbard had been removed. This may signify it being used. Also accounted for by the blue truth above The gilding on the blade has come off in several places. Whether or not it was originally like that is up for questioning. The paint rubbed off during each parry between the knife and the blade. It also rubbed off during the collision between the blade and Maizono's hand as evidenced by the splotches on Maizono's wrist. Maizono's Right Hand: According to Naegi, Maizono's right wrist seems to be splotched with gold colouring. Explained by the blue truth for the previous clue. Bedroom Nameplates: The nameplates on Naegi's and Maizono's doors have been swapped. Addressed by the blue truth as Maizono's method for luring in Leon to Naegi's room. Maizono's DVD: Motivation. Maizono freaked out like a nut after seeing her DVD. Nuff Said. Incinerator: The trash room's incinerator seems to need a key before being able to be near proximity of it. Yamada was seen holding the key to the incinerator. Is there some underlying meaning behind this? Will be addressed under points of uncertainty. Burnt Article of Clothing: It was found in front of the trash room's incinerator. There is blood on the cuff. Leon's bloodied clothes as indicated in the blue truth. Shattered Glass Ball: Shards of the ball was found in front of the trash room's incinerator. Seems to belong to Hagakure. Will be addressed under points of uncertainty. Bathroom Doorknob: Only Naegi and the victim, Maizono, knew about the door being misaligned. Which is one of the two reasons why Leon assumed the door was locked. (the second being that he thought it was Maizono's dorm thanks to the nameplate switch) Signs of force are evident on Naegi's bathroom doorknob. The use of Naegi's tools. Dying Message: This message is written in blood on the wall of Naegi's bathroom. "11037" Fujisaki, the Super Duper High School Programmer, may possibly understand the cryptic coding. Addressed in the blue truth. The message is Leon written in English upside down. The 11 is actually an incomplete 'N' as both 1s have improper orientations. Naegi's Tool Set: Naegi's tool set, which came with his room. According to Monokuma, everyone is given a tool set of their own. The tool set that was used to break into the bathroom. This will be used to explain one of the purple points of uncertainty. Signs of a Struggle: Signs of a struggle are visible around Naegi's room. The walls, floor, and the bathroom's door appears to have slash marks. The struggle signs are addressed in the blue truth. Naegi's Testimony: On the night of the murder, Naegi Makoto and Maizono Sayaka exchanged rooms and keys. Supported by the Blue Truth. Naegi's key was found on the floor of his room after the body was discovered. Supported by the Blue Truth. Maizono proposed the exchange to Naegi because she was afraid. Explained by the Blue Truth as Maizono's ruse. Naegi's testimony is true by Knox's 7th and 9th Commandment. {Not exactly sure if Knox's Decalogue applies here} Unofficial Curfew: Celes proposed that everyone should stay in their rooms for the duration of "Night Time." No punishment is given if one was to break this rule. At this point, it is unknown whether anyone else besides the culprit broke the rule due to lack of punishment. Points of Uncertainty: The Knife: Originally, I was thinking that it could be one of two things: she either attained the knife between the DVD viewing and the Night Time period or the "gift" she was given was a kitchen knife. However, according to Monokuma, everyone had recieved the tool set as a gift. As such, the knife had to have been stolen from the kitchen between the DVD Viewing and Night Time. Broken Crystal Ball + Incinerator Most likely, there is a switch inside the incinerator room. After all, if some prankster decided to lock someone inside, there would need to be a way for them to get out. As such, I am making the assumption that there is some sort of switch within the incinerator area that is within the line of sight of anyone on the outside. Most likely, Leon pitched the crystal ball onto the switch. The ball hit the switch and fell down to the ground causing it to break. Leon then hastily stuffed his clothes into the incinerator and then left. The biggest uncertainty is how Leon got the crystal ball. Maizono's lure for Leon Yeah, this is where I am stumped. I feel like we are missing the evidence for this. Why lure in Leon? Let's look at the list of students The Other Girls-This would probably be tougher as most of them are quite cautious Naegi- Maizono's fall guy. She needed him alive. Hagakure- Big Guy. Wouldn't be easy to kill. Ishimaru- Huge stickler for rules. Would probably refuse to break curfew. Oowada- Like Hagakure, a big guy. Togami- Has been cautious from the very beginning. Would be hard to lure out. Yamada- Just look at that weight difference. The other students would just be bad choices. Proving Naegi's Innocence: As stated in the evidence, only he and Maizono knew about the misalignment of the door. Seeing as the door was forcibly broken into, the killer did not know about the misalignment of the door and assumed that it was locked when he couldn't get in and as a result, broke into the room with the tools in the desk drawer. Damn...that took me a good hour or so to write... Nice to get my thoughts down though... |
(Also known on other places as Hiss13) All hail the adorable chess master! |
Jul 16, 2013 4:25 PM
#120
Here is my prediction everyone: I believe something that may actually seem unorthodox in a kill-or-be-killed type of anime. I actually believe that Sayaka killed herself, and I will provide some reasons. 1. How would someone get in? - I doubt that she would open the front door for him dude/gal/whatever to come in and bash her up...And I believe that the front door wasn't chopped down or anything, correct? So that leads me to believe that Sayaka unlocked her front door prior to construct her plot to kill herself. 2. Destruction around room? - Sayaka could have easily just taken the sword and slashed around the room to make it seem like a battle took place between her and someone else, and the door knob to the bathroom being busted could also have been part of her plan. 3. Motive - Sayaka seemed to be the most emotionally unstable person out of the entire group. This was clearly demonstrated when she was despaired by the video the group was given by Monobear. She might have thought that she caused her former singing group to die, therefore there was no point in her living anymore. This despair led to her deciding to take her own life. 4. What about Leon! being written backwards? - This is another good piece of evidence. If Leon killed her, why would he leave his name on the wall? If Leon did kill her, then I bet he would be more careful and made sure she was out before leaving the scene. But just in case, as a backup: As a more conventional guess, I think Leon did the murder. I mean, a lot of the evidence could also easily point to Leon. |
TomangoJul 16, 2013 4:30 PM
Jul 16, 2013 5:13 PM
#121
CreationBreaker said: xDD I tell ya, witches exists. -Outstanding Umineko deduction crossover- Anyway, I just noticed that proving Naegi's innocence is very tenuous. Since Sayaka is already dead, no one will confirm Naegi's testimony so he will still get under pressure with suspicion. They will think that Naegi is one crafty killer. xDD Also regarding the key switch, they could refute it by assuming Naegi switched the keys when he went to check for Sayaka. |
DenjaXJul 16, 2013 5:16 PM
Jul 16, 2013 5:13 PM
#122
mikado34 said: Ok, now I'm really having second thoughts about the bloody message. Until now I didn't stare to much at the victim picture and just assumed she would have used her right hand to write because it made sense, but this is not the case. Her bloody fingertip is on the left hand, and it's a really awkward position to write anything like that. Try sitting like her and use your left hand on the wall. It's impossible writing at that exact place on the wall! Maybe she didn't write it after all O_O So, I actually tried this and as it turns out, it's not all too awkward to write like that. As a matter of fact, when I look down from that position at where I am writing, that message will look exactly like LEON. Hell, when I my hand hit against my back, it raised by finger from the wall at the moment I hit started the diagonal from the N. In my theory, I state that Maizono didn't die immediately from the stab but from blood loss and as such, she wrote LEON from her perspective once he left the room. Thank you for helping me confirm some part of my theory. Also, Kirigiri is too cute. <3 |
(Also known on other places as Hiss13) All hail the adorable chess master! |
Jul 16, 2013 5:13 PM
#123
DenjaX said: ^Also about your theory on the incinerator room. If the culprit managed to open the shutter and throw the evidence, why leave the scrap of evidence(burn cloth and glass shards)? That would definitely ruin his perfect crime... I think that the scrap of evidence was unavoidable, at least the culprit (who I have suspected to be Leon) threw it in there without thinking twice about whether it would burn completely. He was kind of in a rush because I think that opening the incinerator would create a lot of noise, so he had to quickly get rid of the evidence and run. The glass shards part is throwing me off. The only reason I'd think that he left it there is to throw people off especially since I think it was mentioned in the first post in the evidence that the glass ball seemed to have belonged to Hagekure. I don't really see any harm in leaving it there since people can't point fingers at him with only the glass ball as evidence. That is...if no one saw him somehow obtain that glass ball and no one saw him during this time. You're right about it not being the absolute perfect crime, though, but his plan would've actually been the perfect crime even with the shattered glass ball found as evidence perhaps IF Sayaka didn't write down his name. Wait...actually no, wait I take that back. I think they could perhaps use that glass ball as evidence that could point to him since NO ONE in their group of people would probably be able to hit a switch/button with such accuracy (with only one try!) so they could possibly use that against him, but I doubt he ever thought about that. I'm not really all that sure if he thought things through completely DenjaX said: EDIT: Also, what is this supposed to be?: xDD ![]() Nah, just kidding. I really like your drawing.... so adorable. I also laughed a lot with your other possibility to counter your theories like Hagekure staying INSIDE the incinerator room under closed shutters just to tell a fortune. My sides xDD If you go deeper into his character, that wouldn't be surprising at all. xDD LOL yeah...-ahem ahem- that was supposed to be a screwdriver since I was just drawing random tools that popped in my mind. I don't think they were even given a screwdriver but...hey...I was trying to be a little creative? xD Sorry I tried, and my art definitely doesn't deserve any compliments haha I really was just randomly doodling stuff quickly My other theories that my final one stemmed off of were...pretty creative, don't you think? I never thought things through that well, but for some reason imagining him in that situation seemed pretty realistic to me because I guess I saw him as that kind of a character haha AnimeFan500 said: @Earl: OMG!! Genius deduction. You'd make a great detective like Sherlock Holmes. : ) You deserve a hand shake and now I take a bow before you. About the Incinerator theory: Edit: Could it be possible that he used the crystal ball as a wedge to keep the gate from closing? He could slipped under it, throw his clothes in the incinerator. But due to the glass ball about to break he didn't have time to completely get rid of bloody clothes. When he got out, he kicked the ball and it rolled near the incinerator and broke. Thanks!but...it really wasn't on my own that I came up with that deduction I had a lot of help and it took me a long time to figure things out. With that being said, I'm far from being a detective lol, but thanks for the compliment :) I don't think if he used the crystal ball as a wedge he'd be able to fit under it, I mean he seems like a pretty small guy (compared to the other guys minus Togami who doesn't look like he has muscles on him and DEFINITELY compared to Sakura who's actually a girl lol) but to fit under the height of a glass orb? He'd have to be super good a limbo, because I'm pretty sure only a small kitten would be able to make it across that way xD @MrOCD- Yeah...I think I'm going to settle down and wait for the class trial. I think it's pretty impossible for me to get everything 100% right, and I definitely need to rest. Thanks for the help! I really have you to thank for guiding me to the right direction (especially in the beginning when I was just throwing completely random guesses with little or no evidence to back it up)! |
EarlCielJul 16, 2013 5:17 PM
Jul 16, 2013 5:34 PM
#124
CreationBreaker said: Alright so here is my theory so far. I haven't seen any of the theories written afterwards as I am only looking at the OP here for the evidence list. Any points of uncertainty will be highlighted in purple and will be addressed in another section. I will also just follow the red truth/blue truth system from Umineko. Sequence of Events: Maizono Sayaka sees the DVD and gets scared and desperate to leave and formulates a plan to kill Leon, frame Naegi, and get out of the school. She makes the lie about the sounds on her door to switch rooms with Naegi shortly before the Night Time alarm. When Naegi is in Maizono's room and has locked the door, Maizono switches the nameplates on the door. At some point between 10PM and 1AM, she somehow lured Leon into Naegi's room. At about 1:15-1:20, Leon enters Naegi's room and Maizono shuts the door. She then turns to face Leon and pulls out the knife and starts to attack him. Leon, being an athlete, easily dodges her attacks as she chases him. A good number of Maizono's attacks miss and hit the wall leaving those slashes. Leon notices the katana and unsheathes it to defend himself as a result, knocks the blade out of her hand with the backside of the blade after parrying it at the end of the blade multiple times. At this point, Leon sees the opportunity to go in for the kill and goes after Maizono who runs into the bathroom and closes the door. Unable to open the door, Leon assumes that it is locked. As such, he uses the "gift" in Naegi's desk drawer to dismantle the doorknob and enter. He then pick up the knife and stabs Maizono in the abdomen while she leans against the glass door. Immediately afterwards, Leon leaves the knife and runs out of the room and shuts the door to Naegi's room. After this, Maizono was still alive and wrote the dying message with her blood. At this point, he enters the incinerator room and disposes of his bloody clothes and returns to his room after closing the incinerator and returning to his room. Explanation for the Evidence: Monobear File 01: The estimated time of death is 1:30 AM. Satisfied by the theory's time frame for the fight. The corpse was found in Naegi's room. The victim died in the bathroom. Also accounted for by the theory. Apart from having a knife stuck in her abdomen, her right wrist also appears to be fractured. Right wrist was hit by the blunt side of the katana preventing a slash and causing the fracture. This lead to Maizono dropping the knife. Knife: Will be addressed under points of uncertainty. Gold Sword with & Without Scabbard: Upon finding the sword, the sword's scabbard had been removed. This may signify it being used. Also accounted for by the blue truth above The gilding on the blade has come off in several places. Whether or not it was originally like that is up for questioning. The paint rubbed off during each parry between the knife and the blade. It also rubbed off during the collision between the blade and Maizono's hand as evidenced by the splotches on Maizono's wrist. Maizono's Right Hand: According to Naegi, Maizono's right wrist seems to be splotched with gold colouring. Explained by the blue truth for the previous clue. Bedroom Nameplates: The nameplates on Naegi's and Maizono's doors have been swapped. Addressed by the blue truth as Maizono's method for luring in Leon to Naegi's room. Maizono's DVD: Motivation. Maizono freaked out like a nut after seeing her DVD. Nuff Said. Incinerator: The trash room's incinerator seems to need a key before being able to be near proximity of it. Yamada was seen holding the key to the incinerator. Is there some underlying meaning behind this? Will be addressed under points of uncertainty. Burnt Article of Clothing: It was found in front of the trash room's incinerator. There is blood on the cuff. Leon's bloodied clothes as indicated in the blue truth. Shattered Glass Ball: Shards of the ball was found in front of the trash room's incinerator. Seems to belong to Hagakure. Will be addressed under points of uncertainty. Bathroom Doorknob: Only Naegi and the victim, Maizono, knew about the door being misaligned. Which is one of the two reasons why Leon assumed the door was locked. (the second being that he thought it was Maizono's dorm thanks to the nameplate switch) Signs of force are evident on Naegi's bathroom doorknob. The use of Naegi's tools. Dying Message: This message is written in blood on the wall of Naegi's bathroom. "11037" Fujisaki, the Super Duper High School Programmer, may possibly understand the cryptic coding. Addressed in the blue truth. The message is Leon written in English upside down. The 11 is actually an incomplete 'N' as both 1s have improper orientations. Naegi's Tool Set: Naegi's tool set, which came with his room. According to Monokuma, everyone is given a tool set of their own. The tool set that was used to break into the bathroom. This will be used to explain one of the purple points of uncertainty. Signs of a Struggle: Signs of a struggle are visible around Naegi's room. The walls, floor, and the bathroom's door appears to have slash marks. The struggle signs are addressed in the blue truth. Naegi's Testimony: On the night of the murder, Naegi Makoto and Maizono Sayaka exchanged rooms and keys. Supported by the Blue Truth. Naegi's key was found on the floor of his room after the body was discovered. Supported by the Blue Truth. Maizono proposed the exchange to Naegi because she was afraid. Explained by the Blue Truth as Maizono's ruse. Naegi's testimony is true by Knox's 7th and 9th Commandment. {Not exactly sure if Knox's Decalogue applies here} Unofficial Curfew: Celes proposed that everyone should stay in their rooms for the duration of "Night Time." No punishment is given if one was to break this rule. At this point, it is unknown whether anyone else besides the culprit broke the rule due to lack of punishment. Points of Uncertainty: The Knife: Originally, I was thinking that it could be one of two things: she either attained the knife between the DVD viewing and the Night Time period or the "gift" she was given was a kitchen knife. However, according to Monokuma, everyone had recieved the tool set as a gift. As such, the knife had to have been stolen from the kitchen between the DVD Viewing and Night Time. Broken Crystal Ball + Incinerator Most likely, there is a switch inside the incinerator room. After all, if some prankster decided to lock someone inside, there would need to be a way for them to get out. As such, I am making the assumption that there is some sort of switch within the incinerator area that is within the line of sight of anyone on the outside. Most likely, Leon pitched the crystal ball onto the switch. The ball hit the switch and fell down to the ground causing it to break. Leon then hastily stuffed his clothes into the incinerator and then left. The biggest uncertainty is how Leon got the crystal ball. Maizono's lure for Leon Yeah, this is where I am stumped. I feel like we are missing the evidence for this. Why lure in Leon? Let's look at the list of students The Other Girls-This would probably be tougher as most of them are quite cautious Naegi- Maizono's fall guy. She needed him alive. Hagakure- Big Guy. Wouldn't be easy to kill. Ishimaru- Huge stickler for rules. Would probably refuse to break curfew. Oowada- Like Hagakure, a big guy. Togami- Has been cautious from the very beginning. Would be hard to lure out. Yamada- Just look at that weight difference. The other students would just be bad choices. Proving Naegi's Innocence: As stated in the evidence, only he and Maizono knew about the misalignment of the door. Seeing as the door was forcibly broken into, the killer did not know about the misalignment of the door and assumed that it was locked when he couldn't get in and as a result, broke into the room with the tools in the desk drawer. Damn...that took me a good hour or so to write... Nice to get my thoughts down though... upupupu this is basically Earl's theory word for word. what a coincidence... |
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Jul 16, 2013 5:39 PM
#125
Mono-bear said: They could be on the right track. After all, there is only one truth. xDD So having the same speculation could only raise the probability of it being right. xDD upupupu this is basically Earl's theory word for word. what a coincidence... But then again, both could be wrong haha. |
Jul 16, 2013 5:42 PM
#126
DenjaX said: CreationBreaker said: xDD I tell ya, witches exists. -Outstanding Umineko deduction crossover- Yep. The killer was Beatrice the Golden Witch and she did it with magic. End of Story. XD DenjaX said: Anyway, I just noticed that proving Naegi's innocence is very tenuous. Since Sayaka is already dead, no one will confirm Naegi's testimony so he will still get under pressure with suspicion. They will think that Naegi is one crafty killer. xDD Also regarding the key switch, they could refute it by assuming Naegi switched the keys when he went to check for Sayaka. In the end, Naegi can't really pull out Knox's 7th and 9th since he is a suspect. Only we as the third person observer can do that. This is much more challenging. Mono-bear said: CreationBreaker said: Alright so here is my theory so far. I haven't seen any of the theories written afterwards as I am only looking at the OP here for the evidence list. Any points of uncertainty will be highlighted in purple and will be addressed in another section. I will also just follow the red truth/blue truth system from Umineko. Sequence of Events: Maizono Sayaka sees the DVD and gets scared and desperate to leave and formulates a plan to kill Leon, frame Naegi, and get out of the school. She makes the lie about the sounds on her door to switch rooms with Naegi shortly before the Night Time alarm. When Naegi is in Maizono's room and has locked the door, Maizono switches the nameplates on the door. At some point between 10PM and 1AM, she somehow lured Leon into Naegi's room. At about 1:15-1:20, Leon enters Naegi's room and Maizono shuts the door. She then turns to face Leon and pulls out the knife and starts to attack him. Leon, being an athlete, easily dodges her attacks as she chases him. A good number of Maizono's attacks miss and hit the wall leaving those slashes. Leon notices the katana and unsheathes it to defend himself as a result, knocks the blade out of her hand with the backside of the blade after parrying it at the end of the blade multiple times. At this point, Leon sees the opportunity to go in for the kill and goes after Maizono who runs into the bathroom and closes the door. Unable to open the door, Leon assumes that it is locked. As such, he uses the "gift" in Naegi's desk drawer to dismantle the doorknob and enter. He then pick up the knife and stabs Maizono in the abdomen while she leans against the glass door. Immediately afterwards, Leon leaves the knife and runs out of the room and shuts the door to Naegi's room. After this, Maizono was still alive and wrote the dying message with her blood. At this point, he enters the incinerator room and disposes of his bloody clothes and returns to his room after closing the incinerator and returning to his room. Explanation for the Evidence: Monobear File 01: The estimated time of death is 1:30 AM. Satisfied by the theory's time frame for the fight. The corpse was found in Naegi's room. The victim died in the bathroom. Also accounted for by the theory. Apart from having a knife stuck in her abdomen, her right wrist also appears to be fractured. Right wrist was hit by the blunt side of the katana preventing a slash and causing the fracture. This lead to Maizono dropping the knife. Knife: Will be addressed under points of uncertainty. Gold Sword with & Without Scabbard: Upon finding the sword, the sword's scabbard had been removed. This may signify it being used. Also accounted for by the blue truth above The gilding on the blade has come off in several places. Whether or not it was originally like that is up for questioning. The paint rubbed off during each parry between the knife and the blade. It also rubbed off during the collision between the blade and Maizono's hand as evidenced by the splotches on Maizono's wrist. Maizono's Right Hand: According to Naegi, Maizono's right wrist seems to be splotched with gold colouring. Explained by the blue truth for the previous clue. Bedroom Nameplates: The nameplates on Naegi's and Maizono's doors have been swapped. Addressed by the blue truth as Maizono's method for luring in Leon to Naegi's room. Maizono's DVD: Motivation. Maizono freaked out like a nut after seeing her DVD. Nuff Said. Incinerator: The trash room's incinerator seems to need a key before being able to be near proximity of it. Yamada was seen holding the key to the incinerator. Is there some underlying meaning behind this? Will be addressed under points of uncertainty. Burnt Article of Clothing: It was found in front of the trash room's incinerator. There is blood on the cuff. Leon's bloodied clothes as indicated in the blue truth. Shattered Glass Ball: Shards of the ball was found in front of the trash room's incinerator. Seems to belong to Hagakure. Will be addressed under points of uncertainty. Bathroom Doorknob: Only Naegi and the victim, Maizono, knew about the door being misaligned. Which is one of the two reasons why Leon assumed the door was locked. (the second being that he thought it was Maizono's dorm thanks to the nameplate switch) Signs of force are evident on Naegi's bathroom doorknob. The use of Naegi's tools. Dying Message: This message is written in blood on the wall of Naegi's bathroom. "11037" Fujisaki, the Super Duper High School Programmer, may possibly understand the cryptic coding. Addressed in the blue truth. The message is Leon written in English upside down. The 11 is actually an incomplete 'N' as both 1s have improper orientations. Naegi's Tool Set: Naegi's tool set, which came with his room. According to Monokuma, everyone is given a tool set of their own. The tool set that was used to break into the bathroom. This will be used to explain one of the purple points of uncertainty. Signs of a Struggle: Signs of a struggle are visible around Naegi's room. The walls, floor, and the bathroom's door appears to have slash marks. The struggle signs are addressed in the blue truth. Naegi's Testimony: On the night of the murder, Naegi Makoto and Maizono Sayaka exchanged rooms and keys. Supported by the Blue Truth. Naegi's key was found on the floor of his room after the body was discovered. Supported by the Blue Truth. Maizono proposed the exchange to Naegi because she was afraid. Explained by the Blue Truth as Maizono's ruse. Naegi's testimony is true by Knox's 7th and 9th Commandment. {Not exactly sure if Knox's Decalogue applies here} Unofficial Curfew: Celes proposed that everyone should stay in their rooms for the duration of "Night Time." No punishment is given if one was to break this rule. At this point, it is unknown whether anyone else besides the culprit broke the rule due to lack of punishment. Points of Uncertainty: The Knife: Originally, I was thinking that it could be one of two things: she either attained the knife between the DVD viewing and the Night Time period or the "gift" she was given was a kitchen knife. However, according to Monokuma, everyone had recieved the tool set as a gift. As such, the knife had to have been stolen from the kitchen between the DVD Viewing and Night Time. Broken Crystal Ball + Incinerator Most likely, there is a switch inside the incinerator room. After all, if some prankster decided to lock someone inside, there would need to be a way for them to get out. As such, I am making the assumption that there is some sort of switch within the incinerator area that is within the line of sight of anyone on the outside. Most likely, Leon pitched the crystal ball onto the switch. The ball hit the switch and fell down to the ground causing it to break. Leon then hastily stuffed his clothes into the incinerator and then left. The biggest uncertainty is how Leon got the crystal ball. Maizono's lure for Leon Yeah, this is where I am stumped. I feel like we are missing the evidence for this. Why lure in Leon? Let's look at the list of students The Other Girls-This would probably be tougher as most of them are quite cautious Naegi- Maizono's fall guy. She needed him alive. Hagakure- Big Guy. Wouldn't be easy to kill. Ishimaru- Huge stickler for rules. Would probably refuse to break curfew. Oowada- Like Hagakure, a big guy. Togami- Has been cautious from the very beginning. Would be hard to lure out. Yamada- Just look at that weight difference. The other students would just be bad choices. Proving Naegi's Innocence: As stated in the evidence, only he and Maizono knew about the misalignment of the door. Seeing as the door was forcibly broken into, the killer did not know about the misalignment of the door and assumed that it was locked when he couldn't get in and as a result, broke into the room with the tools in the desk drawer. Damn...that took me a good hour or so to write... Nice to get my thoughts down though... upupupu this is basically Earl's theory word for word. what a coincidence... Who's Earl? Actually, I just double checked the episode and I noticed that the Broken Crystal Ball was only a few inches away from a pole which we see from the front view behind the grating to have two switches. Now, I am 100% sure that that is the inner switch for the incinerator gate. |
Ashen_MikoJul 16, 2013 5:47 PM
(Also known on other places as Hiss13) All hail the adorable chess master! |
Jul 16, 2013 5:54 PM
#127
CreationBreaker said: Regarding with your tools theory, were you under the assumption of everyone receives a toolbox on their own as a gift from Monokuma?DenjaX said: CreationBreaker said: xDD I tell ya, witches exists. -Outstanding Umineko deduction crossover- Yep. The killer was Beatrice the Golden Witch and she did it with magic. End of Story. XD I have a red truth that could refute one of your theory but unfortunately, it would help you reach the truth. I want to make you believe witches exist! As for the Knox's Decalogue, I am sure they remain faithful to the rules. But I have a bad feeling the anime will fail to deliver, thus, breaking the rule due to the being rushed.... |
Jul 16, 2013 6:06 PM
#128
DenjaX said: CreationBreaker said: Regarding with your tools theory, were you under the assumption of everyone receives a toolbox on their own as a gift from Monokuma?DenjaX said: CreationBreaker said: xDD I tell ya, witches exists. -Outstanding Umineko deduction crossover- Yep. The killer was Beatrice the Golden Witch and she did it with magic. End of Story. XD According to the evidence list, "Naegi's tool set, which came with his room. According to Monokuma, everyone is given a tool set of their own." This is where that assumption is derived from. DenjaX said: I have a red truth that could refute one of your theory but unfortunately, it would help you reach the truth. I want to make you believe witches exist! Repeat in Red. "Not everyone recieved the toolbox as a gift from Monokuma"! Jk. If you feel like it go ahead, but I think I am going to wait for the class trial for anything else. DenjaX said: As for the Knox's Decalogue, I am sure they remain faithful to the rules. But I have a bad feeling the anime will fail to deliver, thus, breaking the rule due to the being rushed.... Thirteen episodes, huh...if we have a death every other episode, will it be enough? I don't know how many deaths there are since I haven't played the game so I can't really say. I doubt it will be too rushed but I do hope they adhere to Knox's Decalogue as much as possible... |
(Also known on other places as Hiss13) All hail the adorable chess master! |
Jul 16, 2013 6:08 PM
#129
CreationBreaker said: Who's Earl? well you might not know but she's the person who posted right above you somewhere. this is what she said a page ago, you should take a look at it since it might uncover some of your "points of uncertainty" but there are no guarantees EarlCiel said: After reading everyone's theories and re-examing my own...I have found the flaws in my theories (and some people have pointed it out). I've pieced everything together, and I think they fit quite nicely, so I present to you, my modified theories! Let me first state that I'm going to take a crack at it and explain what I think happened. I'll try my best to make sense, and I'll try my best to have as much supported evidence to show you I didn't just take some random guess. Alright...here we go xD (I've also tried to organize it to the best of my ability) My Theory (I copied and pasted this from my previous post) I highly suspect the culprit is...LEON. I base this conclusion on her death message 11037 and it is my belief that he is the one who killed Sayaka...with many complications that occur before that. ![]() My reasoning for why I think 11037 is NOT a red herring and is the truth- I don't think someone who is about to be murdered would write down a lie in their death message. I mean, it's their LAST words. It could be possible, but I think the reason she wrote it behind her was because she was probably already stabbed (hence the blood...the message was written in blood) so she was desperately trying to hide the message from the killer. If the killer saw it, wouldn't they erase it quickly? That means that she wrote it that way to make it so that didn't happen. HER finger is bloodied because she wrote it, and the culprit didn't use her finger to write that otherwise it wouldn't look like she was trying to cover it. It was also written upside down which proves that she wrote it with her back leaning on the wall. I think that Leon is responsible for Sayaka's death however it was not his intent to kill her, or at least when he walked into the room he was not aiming to kill her. I'm not saying he's innocent or it was an accident since he ended up killing her when she was left defenseless, but I believe that Sayaka was actually trying to kill him, and in the process of this she was killed. In other words, she got herself killed by trying to kill Leon. My reason for thinking Sayaka isn't completely innocent: In episode 1 she had a mental breakdown, and according to the DVD Naegi saw, it's no wonder she started panicing because she wanted to desperately get out, so she was planning to kill someone. Why Leon? I'm not sure she was targeting him or it was someone random, but I do know that she invited him in the room (otherwise...how would he get in?) and I believe she purposely switched rooms with Naegi. Because there was that sword in his room, she saw that if she was plotting to kill someone, she would have a better chance of success using that weapon Sequence of Events (I had a lot of trouble with this one) ***JUST A WARNING: this is...pretty long xD prepare yourself The time of death according to the Monobear file is estimated to be around 1:30 AM and the corpse was found in Naegi Makoto's room in the dorm area. This means that Sayaka was killed at Night time AFTER the room switch with Naegi. I tried to sequence the events visually on the map, and will try to guide you through my thoughts, organizing them with letters A,B,C,D, and E. Explainations for what happened at those letters will be explained below the map. Also, don't mind the little illustrations, haha I got kind of bored,...o__o sorry lol (The red 'X' means that place is off limits) ![]() A- Sayaka goes to the kitchen to get the knife. The reason I put this as the first event that happens is because it was mentioned in the information provided in the first post (by MrOCD) that the kitchen is off-limits at night time, correct? So I assume that this happened before the room exchange and before everything else happens. I also am under the suspicion that she planned this out earlier on in the day, so the room exchange and getting the knife was carefully planned out from the start. How do I know that Sayaka is the one that got the knife and not the culprit? I'm under the assumption that the culprit unknowingly walked into her room without the intent to kill because they were lured there. The culprit couldn't have made it in the room unless they had the key, and Sayaka wouldn't open the door if she was innocent, because who would invite someone random in the room in the middle of the night? She also even told Naegi that she wouldn't open the door if it was him (who she trusts), so clearly there's something suspicious going on already. With this being said, that person (who I suspect to be Leon) must have not carried a weapon in her room. It wasn't in Naegi's room before, therefore only Sayaka could've gotten it. How do I know that knife is from the kitchen? Actually...I previously just assumed that was the weapon she got when Monobear said he was going to give a little "present" to everyone, but someone here posted a picture of the knives at the kitchen and they look very familiar to the one that was found at the crime scene so I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually from there. "mikado34" said: The knife clearly belongs in the kitchen and since that area is off limit in night time, any one could have taken one during the evening, in this case Maizono. ![]() I draw my conclusion of the knife being from the kitchen from mikado34, but it is quite possible that Sayaka got it from her room as well, since I don't remember seeing her weapon that Monobear left in her room when they exchanged rooms. Either way, it doesn't make that much a difference I guess. A knife is a knife. B- The room exchange happens. This is the part in the episode where Sayaka knocks on the door Naegi's door, tells about the "door rattling" which is probably a lie she told considering how she was trying to trick Naegi into changing rooms with him....She takes advantage of him knowing that he's easy to deceive and would do anything to help 'protect' her so she uses him. I thought she asked for the room exchange to get a hold of thethe sword in his room, but then I thought about it but how would she know that there was a sword in his room? o__o Also...why would she have gotten the knife in the first place if she knew that there would be a weapon in his room? So, she's not the one who used the golden sword, and the only other reason left that explains she'd WANT to switch room and did it purposely is because she was trying to frame him? I can't think of any other reason that makes sense. Anyways, so that happens, and probably when they switch she switches the room signs. That part when she's staring intensely at something...I feel like that's the part when she commences her plan to kill. But in order to kill, she has to lure someone into the room, and this method that she uses is probably one of the things I had the most trouble with. C- Sayaka lures her victim into Naegi's room. The victim must have walked to the room not knowing this was actually Naegi's room because of the switched name room plates. I still have two theories about why the room plates were switched and I honestly think it could work either way. The second reason seems kind of ridiculous but hey...you never know o__o 1) Sayaka switches the room plates right after their room exchange so that she can lure her victim into the room she's staying (Naegi's room) 2) Leon (the culprit I suspect) switches the room plates after he kills Sayaka because he's confused why Naegi's nameplate was on the room Sayaka was staying in (in other words he was confused and switched it to "make it right" when he's actually doing the opposite) It seems pointless since it doesn't really help or reveal who he is...but I don' t know, it is possible he just did that. The next part I'll attempt to explain is how exactly Sayaka got her victim into the room, because it doesn't make sense for someone just to show up at the door. I have two reasons, but I always put the reason I'm leaning more towards first, but I put the other one there just in case...lol you never know. 1) Sayaka got her victim in the room through ways of communicating, and she could've actually just secretly whispered to someone to "meet her in her room", but I don't think she's that stupid. People would perhaps overhear their conversation or find it suspicious. There could be witnesses anywhere, and she's planning to kill him so she has to be secretive. I NEVER even noticed the notepad people were talking about in this thread...so when someone brought it up I started getting all excited. Excited in a confused kind of way. Here's the post I read- "AnimeFan500 " said: I noticed Kirigi looked at something( a notepad? ) before she noticed the room change. Could something important been on there? Also when everyone suspected Naegi as the murderer, why didn't he show Maizono's room key? This could prove his innocent unless he shows this during the class trial. I didn't know if there was actually a notepad, so I asked for a screenshot (I've got to ask for evidence of the evidence lol) and someone was kind enough to post it, so I'll repost it here: "DenjaX" said: Kirigiri looking at notepad during investigation. ![]() Here's my thinking process- IF that was a notepad then...why a notepad? I don't remember Naegi writing a note, so it's written by Sayaka? But it wouldn't mean that she necessarily wrote something since it was a notepad..but wouldn't those kind of things usually be found inside drawers or inside a desk? If a notepad was found on the crime scene it could've been used to perhaps...write down a plan? xD notepads are used to write things down, but who would be stupid enough to write down a to-do-note and their plan to kill someone? So would this mean it was a note to someone else...could it be a way of communicating with someone? OH MY GOD I THIINK I'VE FIGURED IT OUT. Sayaka used that notepad to write a note to someone that could lure someone into her room, or where she was staying which is Naegi's room. That would also mean that she was the one who switched the signs to lure that person into the room. Wait, but if there was just a notepad that means that the note is probably gone and they'll have difficulty finding that out during the triall...I just don't understand why Sayaka would plan all this in Naegi's room, I mean was the room exchange necessary? Clearly she was trying to kill someone so that means she was trying to frame Naegi? I'm not sure but if that was her intention I knew she couldn't be trusted. Gosh, it's always the sweet and people that appear all nice and innocent that backstab others...o___o As you can see, I had an epiphany. THE NOTE PAD WAS USED TO LURE THE VICTIM IN!!! Oh gosh, I felt like a ray of light shined on me, and I was just bathed in awesomeness. Okay, slight exaggeration but I was so happy!! 2) Maybe...she just went out of the room and saw him, told him to follow her into the room, and the notepad was just found there because it was supposed to be there. I'm not sure where the notepad is placed in the room, but maybe it was just found there before? I don't think this possibility is likely since it was freaking KIRIGI staring at it, but who knows...that's why I think the first reason is more solid. Kirigi knows what she's staring at xD and they wouldn't just show that just because. There must be a reason. I'm not certain when she left a note, or where she did it, but she must've targed Leon from the start? I don't know if she just randomly left a note there, but I'm assuming that Leon picked it up and read it even if it was not intended for him. Because why would Sayaka target one of the strongest students? He's extremely good at baseball...so I'm not sure if he was actually supposed to be her victim. Mehh...whatever in the end he read it. I'm assuming that the note said something like this: "Meet me at my room at ___ o'clock (probably a designated time...maybe it's 1:25 since she died at 1:30?)" -Sayaka" She probably said something along the lines of "I need to give you something" or "we need to talk" or "I have to confess my feelings for you". Point is, whatever she said lead him into the room. I think it might've been the last one because who WOULDN'T go into the room in the middle of the night knowing that an idol was going to confess her feelings to you. Leon, my friend, I understand you, but next time put your life first. Leon walks into her room which is ACTUALLY Naegi's...she opens it and attacks him! The next part takes place in the room. I think the nameplate had to be switched by Sayaka since Leon would've walked into the room that said "Maizono"...but my previous idea isn't immediately canceled out since it is possible she signed the note as Naegi and told him to meet at Naegi's room since she's trying to frame him...? D- Sayaka tries to kill Leon, but in the process of this things take a turn of events, and she is actually the one that is killed. I attempted to illustrate what I think happened (PLEASE excuse my horrible artistic skills...I thought stick figures should suffice but I got a little excited and went all out...I apologize beforehand if your eyes start bleeding) To be honest, I actually forgot what Sayaka looked like so I just drew those two pigtails and thought they should be enough. I'd let the picture do the talking, but with what I drew I think I'm going to NEED to explain lol ![]() 1) Bushy-eyebrowed Sayaka takes her knife and tries to kill him, but fails multiple times (because I don't think she has very good aim) which explains the signs of struggle around the room (slashes). I initially thought they were from the golden sword but someone (MrOCD) pointed out that if she used the golden sword, her entire palm would've been gold because the paint comes off easily. Instead..there's only a little spot of gold paint on her wrist based on this image: ![]() So she stabs him and the culprit is running around the room for his dear life because he walked in without knowing what the heck was going on. He was probably thinking something like, "I WAS HERE FOR A CONFESSION, BUT SHE STARTS STABBING ME AND SWINING A KNIFE AT ME? WTF? RUNN FOR MY LAIFFEEEE!!" This is why you SHOULD NOT tell a woman to go back to the kitchen as a sexist joke. The kitchen is where the knives are found. Think over it a little while, it'll come to you xD 2) This one's kind of hard to tell by the picture...umm well after all that running around the room I actually thought about how Leon could possibly dodge ALL the shots. Sure, he's an high school super duper all-star or whatever, but I think he would get slashed at least ONCE by her so I'm going to take a guess and say that he used something to defend himself. The object I would guess that he uses is the scabbard or whatever it's called since I recall seeing slash marks on it. He uses that to protect himself, and hits her wrist with it(?) so she drops the knife. This also explains her fractured wrist and the little gold stain. I'm not sure if the scabbard's paint comes off too...but I don't think he used the knife to stop her otherwise her entire wrist would be gone lol. How do I know all of this? If you want, you can take a look at my thinking process (spoiled because it's quite long and I ramble a lot xD)- Sayaka couldn't have been the one using the golden sword. It was in Naegi's room, correct? So...that means that the knife is the weapon she used and those slash marks were made by the knife if it wasn't her holding the sword? I'm under the assumption that Leon was lured into her room somehow (not sure why or how), but meant no harm entering in after all she invited him...so the slash marks are made by the knife. Hmm...then when does the sword go into use? That means that Leon was the one who used the sword? She has a gold spot on her wrist, and it's broken so that means she was hit by it? I got really confused for a second because I thought that there were two swords, and I had to google what a "scabbard" was. Never heard of that word. Is that the case? Even after googling I'm still sort of confused lol so does the scabbard leave stains too? If not, then is it possible that Leon used the sword and she held on to the scabbard to defend herself? Or maybe she used the scabbard as a weapon? Leon wouldn't attack her the moment he entered the room so it's possible that it was actually him who used the scabbard to defend himself since I think I see scratch marks on it. Or maybe he used the scabbard to hit her wrist, and that's where the gold stain came from? Not from the sword? It only makes sense to have him hold the scabbard probably to defend himself since there are so many signs of struggle around the room he was probably dodging for his life, but after so many marks around the room he couldn't have dodged every single one of them even if she isn't skillful using the sword so he had to have some kind of a shield. He could've easily used the sword as defense as well...but I guess you wouldn't use a sword unless you had an intention to kill. 3) Sayaka, who's weaponless and helpless runs into the bathroom since she KNOWS how to open the door because Naegi taught her. The culprit tries to open it, but it doesn't open. He's probably under the assumption that it was locked since he thought that he was in Sayaka's room and the girl's bathroom door is locked. 4) Leon uses the tool box kit thing (either his or Naegi's...I wouldn't think it would matter but maybe Naegi's because it's closer and he would have to leave and go get his which would take kind of long and maybe Sayaka could escape during this time) to open the door, corners Sayaka, and stabs her in the abdomen with the knife. I didn't draw that because it was too violent and I don't think I'd be able to capture it right xD By the way, one of the tools is a screwdriver. Don't laugh. I tried, okay? lol Here's the map that corresponds with what happens after the murder- ![]() Alrightt!! Almost done with the sequence! So, Leon is done killing Sayaka, he probably is going to start hiding all the evidence now so no one knows he's been there. His shirt is probably covered in blood after killing her, so he can't just throw that stuff away because people can find it, so what does he do? He burns it. Why do I think his shirt is covered in blood? This is why there is a scrap of his clothes found near the incinerator. It's not Sayaka's sleeve piece because hers is still there as I examined from the photo, so it would make sense if it was his. ![]() Now, why did I make his route to the left and not the right (his route I drew on the map is dotted)? I did this because Leon would probably be smart enough to know that there are people down that hallway (since it's his room's hallway) so to sneak around in the middle of the night, he chose the left route to make his way to the incinerator. Last, but not least... E- Leon opens the incinerator to hide his evidence (bloody shirt) I had the MOST difficulty figuring out this part. I knew that he somehow found a way to open the incinerator even though it said on the first post that it was locked, and that otaku (Yamada I think it was?) was the only person with the key. I was SUPER confused why the glass ball was there. I at first thought that the fortune teller dude was standing near the incinerator for no reason in the middle of the night, Sayaka passed by saw her fortune (her death) and she got mad and smashed it...Leon heard the smash since his room is nearby so he heard it and followed her back to her room. That made sense at the time but HOW THE HECK WOULD HE HAVE OPENED THE INCINERATOR?! If someone were to ask me where I think the glass ball is from...or why it's even there in the first place...I can't really answer that because I don't know. o____o ummm...I knew that it must've been used to open the incinerator since it was found inside of it for some strange reason (also broken so it was probably thrown), but how it was obtained remains a mystery to me. It could be quite possible that it was stolen at some point? When and how, I'm not quite sure of. Maybe it was lying on the ground somewhere? It was a present? Someone dropped it there? The culprit secretly is a fortune teller himself and practices those kind of things in his free time? The possibilities are endless and I have absolutely no clue xD I still can't figure that part out, but I tried to focus more on the incinerator situation and then thought, "hmm...maybe he could've just thrown the shirt in there? I mean he is a baseball player and can pitch." I actually got this idea from reading someone's post- "mikado34" said: Leon used his skills as baseball player and could have used the ball of glass inside the shirt to reach the incinerator, since you need a key to access the area. I just can't figure out if the incinerator was turned on at this time. I agreed with this theory and believed that the incinerator was off assuming that it was night time and it was probably locked since there is a key needed for it to open. He had to have opened it somehow. He can't just walk in there and throw it in. It is possible that Leon threw the shirt with the glass ball which explains why it was shattered, but then I looked at the picture of the incinerator and noticed how it would probably be kind of hard to fit both a shirt and glass ball inside together. Picture of the incinerator- ![]() My next thought was, "okay, so maybe he couldn't have opened it by himself nor could he throw it, but maybe in the morning Yamada (or whatever that otaku's name is) opened it for him, and he kind of just threw it in secretly?" That is probably the stupidest reasoning I've ever made since that is EXTREMELY suspicious behavior and he would've had to hold on to the bloody shirt in his hand. Leon holding a bloody shirt behind his back Leon: umm excuse me, Yamada can you open the incinerator for me? Yamada: SURE THINGG~ Leon walks away with bloody shirt in hand and gets away with it. Nothing suspicious going on here, and he wouldn't TOTALLY get busted during the class trial when Yamada opens his mouth and tells everyone "oh yeahh I remember Leon walking up to me this morning and he told me to open the incinerator. He also burned a bloody shirt in there but that's completelyyy normal" NO. JUST NO. OF COURSE HE WOULD BE FOUND OUT! Okay, so that's crossed out definitely. Plus, this wouldn't explain WHY THE GLASS BALL WAS THERE. Unless fortune teller was burning stuff too and his crystal ball broke but that wouldn't really make all that much sense. I desperately tried to search for an answer, and I thought that since his opening of the incinerator had to do with the glass ball, he must've somehow used it to open it up. SOMEHOW. I thought about it over and over again, but then I wondered if there could be a button inside the incinerator to OPEN/CLOSE it as well. If the was a key needed to open it from the outside, then it wouldn't be needed on the inside, correct? If there was a button outside of the incinerator, it was probably for closing it when you stand outside. That means that when you stand inside the incinerator, there's probably a button inside that closes it but doesn't need a key to activate it (because it's inside). Leon must've thrown the glass ball inside to hit that button, opened the incinerator gate, thrown the shirt in, and shut the gate from the outside again. His shirt left a scarp (didn't burn completely) and he goes back to his room! How do I know there's a button inside the incinerator? I'm not actually sure, but I do know that it's outside of it according to this picture: ![]() (notice the red button) I'm not sure how far away from the door the button is (inside the incinerator) but considering how Leon is pretty darn good at throwing because he's the all-star, I'm pretty sure he would've been able to hit it. Also, my theory about the fortune teller guy is yet again wrong because of the simple fact that the glass ball was found INSIDE the incinerator and I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be telling fortunes near an incinerator xD that doesn't make sense Proving Naegi's innocence The culprit seemed to have not known that it was Naegi's room he went into. I mean, that person took the tool kit and opened it that way. The real culprit must've mistakened it for Sayaka's bathroom which is locked because a girls bathrooms in their room are locked, correct? Then if he had to take measure to unscrew it, something tells me that...the culprit mistakened Naegi's room for Sayaka's room. I mean it makes sense right? If the culprit didn't know about the room switch, then it couldn't have been Naegi who tried to kill her because he was the one who agreed to it. I think that this'll only convince all the others if someone testifies to how his bathroom door is actually broken....the only one who could do that is Sayaka and she's dead. There is a possibility that Monobear could say something, but it is possible he could stay quiet and smile sadistically watching him trying to prove his innocence...sounds like a HUGE possibility actually xD reading thoughts of others might help you more than just alone |
Mono-bearJul 16, 2013 6:12 PM
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Jul 16, 2013 6:19 PM
#130
CreationBreaker said: To be more precise, there is only a certain rule that I am concerned with(I won't mention of course). Other than that, they will definitely follow the rules accordingly so rest assured. They didn't break any rules at the moment. xDDThirteen episodes, huh...if we have a death every other episode, will it be enough? I don't know how many deaths there are since I haven't played the game so I can't really say. I doubt it will be too rushed but I do hope they adhere to Knox's Decalogue as much as possible... Not everyone received the toolbox as a gift from Monokuma >:D |
Jul 16, 2013 6:26 PM
#131
CreationBreaker said: So, I actually tried this and as it turns out, it's not all too awkward to write like that. As a matter of fact, when I look down from that position at where I am writing, that message will look exactly like LEON. Hell, when I my hand hit against my back, it raised by finger from the wall at the moment I hit started the diagonal from the N. In my theory, I state that Maizono didn't die immediately from the stab but from blood loss and as such, she wrote LEON from her perspective once he left the room. Thank you for helping me confirm some part of my theory. Haha yeah, well I can write it too and it spells the same. I wasn't sitting in an correct upright position when I tried it myself *teehee* MrOCD said: Yeah, now that you mention it... the only way for your logic to make sense about the culprit not burning every piece of the clothing would be that he was being too laid-back or maybe tired after the drama. It's a possibility, but I'd like it if you consider that not being the case. What if he didn't overlook that part of the incinerator? Could there be another reason to why the clothing didn't have everything incinerated? So many variables to consider. This seems like a perfect way to blame another person. I looked into the first episode and yes here's a hint. ![]() Shaman guy is a laid-back fellow and he could easily have forgotten his crystal ball in the laundry room (which I assume is accessible at any time). So I guess the culprit could be lucky to grab one of his white shirts in the laundry room, bloodstain it and half burn it on purpose. The crystal ball was used to hit the display from a distance and add to the suspense towards shaman guy. |
Jul 16, 2013 6:35 PM
#132
EarlCiel said: Plausible but if I was a culprit, I wouldn't leave as many trails as possible... I just thought that it was too much of a left over to not be concerned about it.. xDDI think that the scrap of evidence was unavoidable, at least the culprit (who I have suspected to be Leon) threw it in there without thinking twice about whether it would burn completely. He was kind of in a rush because I think that opening the incinerator would create a lot of noise, so he had to quickly get rid of the evidence and run. The glass shards part is throwing me off. The only reason I'd think that he left it there is to throw people off especially since I think it was mentioned in the first post in the evidence that the glass ball seemed to have belonged to Hagekure. I don't really see any harm in leaving it there since people can't point fingers at him with only the glass ball as evidence. That is...if no one saw him somehow obtain that glass ball and no one saw him during this time. You're right about it not being the absolute perfect crime, though, but his plan would've actually been the perfect crime even with the shattered glass ball found as evidence perhaps IF Sayaka didn't write down his name. Wait...actually no, wait I take that back. I think they could perhaps use that glass ball as evidence that could point to him since NO ONE in their group of people would probably be able to hit a switch/button with such accuracy (with only one try!) so they could possibly use that against him, but I doubt he ever thought about that. I'm not really all that sure if he thought things through completely |
Jul 16, 2013 8:05 PM
#133
Mono-bear said: CreationBreaker said: Who's Earl? well you might not know but she's the person who posted right above you somewhere. this is what she said a page ago, you should take a look at it since it might uncover some of your "points of uncertainty" but there are no guarantees EarlCiel said: Theory That actually covered my point of uncertainty about the lure. Although there is no direct evidence to support it at this point, it actually seems to make sense. It also makes me wonder how exactly she got that note to Leon considering that these doors to the dorms (according to someone in this thread) are impossible to breach via force meaning that I doubt that there is an opening for the note to fit through. However, it still doesn't explain how he got the glass ball...I'm still drawing a blank on that one. DenjaX said: CreationBreaker said: To be more precise, there is only a certain rule that I am concerned with(I won't mention of course). Other than that, they will definitely follow the rules accordingly so rest assured. They didn't break any rules at the moment. xDDThirteen episodes, huh...if we have a death every other episode, will it be enough? I don't know how many deaths there are since I haven't played the game so I can't really say. I doubt it will be too rushed but I do hope they adhere to Knox's Decalogue as much as possible... Ohh...? DenjaX said: Not everyone received the toolbox as a gift from Monokuma >:D Fuck...well, I think my theory stands well overall...I just need to fine tune the details... DenjaX said: Anyway, I just noticed that proving Naegi's innocence is very tenuous. Since Sayaka is already dead, no one will confirm Naegi's testimony so he will still get under pressure with suspicion. They will think that Naegi is one crafty killer. xDD Actually, I thought about this and wouldn't Naegi just have to get Monokuma to confirm in front of everyone during the trial that there was a trick to the door and that only he and Maizono knew about it? Once he did that, all he would have to do to prove his own innocence is present the fact that the door was forced through. Although, I have my doubts that Monokuma would cooperate with that but it's still worth the shot. |
Ashen_MikoJul 16, 2013 8:14 PM
(Also known on other places as Hiss13) All hail the adorable chess master! |
Jul 16, 2013 8:12 PM
#134
DenjaX said: CreationBreaker said: To be more precise, there is only a certain rule that I am concerned with(I won't mention of course). Other than that, they will definitely follow the rules accordingly so rest assured. They didn't break any rules at the moment. xDDThirteen episodes, huh...if we have a death every other episode, will it be enough? I don't know how many deaths there are since I haven't played the game so I can't really say. I doubt it will be too rushed but I do hope they adhere to Knox's Decalogue as much as possible... Not everyone received the toolbox as a gift from Monokuma >:D Tch, I may have misread the part where Monokuma said: "Last but not least, I sent you all some small gifts." "I want you all to rack your brains around them and enjoy yourself!" The reasons why I believe Monokuma was ALSO referring to the tool set was because: 1. The screen was directing us towards the tool set. 2. Monokuma said "some" which could be referring to multiple gifts. 3. "I want you all to rack your brains around them" may be a sort of pun to hit someone in the head with them. Reasons why I support this part is because the game also has Monokuma making a pun about hitting someone in the head after mentioning the tool set. 4. "small" could literally be referring to the size of the gifts. The other meaning could be that it was referring to the value of whatever gift, which is subjective to one another. Granted, the 3rd line of reasoning would be in colour purple for uncertainty. But putting them together would make it seem most likely that Monokuma was referring to the tool set. Edit: Either way, a tool set exists. It does not matter if there are more. I may just have to re-edit my post, though. |
MrOCDJul 16, 2013 8:36 PM
Jul 16, 2013 9:13 PM
#135
CreationBreaker said: That actually covered my point of uncertainty about the lure. Although there is no direct evidence to support it at this point, it actually seems to make sense. It also makes me wonder how exactly she got that note to Leon considering that these doors to the dorms (according to someone in this thread) are impossible to breach via force meaning that I doubt that there is an opening for the note to fit through. However, it still doesn't explain how he got the glass ball...I'm still drawing a blank on that one. The note could've been sent in a number of ways, but I believe that he received the note perhaps prior to night time when everyone returns to their room. It's a possibility she left it in front of the door, taped it somewhere, and usually when doors have no opening on either side it is possible that she could've slipped in beneath the door where there's usually an opening. The fact is that he had to have gone to her room at a certain time, and had to have received specific instructions of some sort. How it was delivered could've been through just passing the message by word, but since there was a notepad Kirigi was staring at, the smartest way to deliver a message is definitely through letters. I struggled a lot with how the culprit could've obtained the glass ball, and I've narrowed it down to a single choice- Leon must've stole it from the fortune teller when he wasn't looking. Either it was dropped, misplaced, or just stolen in the flash of an eye are all possibilities, but a given fact is that it belongs to the fortune teller, and I don't think he would willingly give just anyone a glass orb, so this means that Leon had to have obtained it secretly after killing Sayaka it was past 1:30 AM. Whether he went into the store room, the hallway...where he found it is something we can't really say for sure without the evidence. Leon could have easily gone into the rooms that are not prohibited from being entered and gotten the glass ball somewhere because the fortune teller must've misplaced it. EDIT; Actually, about the whole glass ball thing THIS is kind of why we should pay more attention to things that are going on and perhaps take a look at things that others discover xD I mentioned above how the glass ball must've been obtained during Night Time when no one else is around, so he secretly took it from somewhere. This picture that someone posted in this discussion actually leads to a single room...which is amazing because I never even noticed! mikado34 said: (Found in episode 1) ![]() Shaman guy is a laid-back fellow and he could easily have forgotten his crystal ball in the laundry room (which I assume is accessible at any time). So I guess the culprit could be lucky to grab one of his white shirts in the laundry room, bloodstain it and half burn it on purpose. The crystal ball was used to hit the display from a distance and add to the suspense towards shaman guy. As I was reading that post I was just amazed at how sharp eyes this person has lol I swear I didn't even pay attention to the fact that they even had a laundry room since I thought they'd just wear the same clothes everyday. Wait...do they? I don't pay attention to things like that so I kind of was just under the assumption they wore the same clothes every single day lol If the fortune teller is as carefree as he appears to be (I hate to make assumptions, but this one makes sense and follows my theory on how the glass ball had to be misplaced somewhere in order for Leon to obtain it) so it wouldn't surprise me if it was actually the laundry room he left it in! It also makes sense because apparently the laundry room is accessible during night time, so I think that if there would be a room that we could guess he left it in, one high possibility is the Laundry room since it is accessible, and in that screenshot we see him reading a magazine. he could've unknowingly left the glass ball there after directing his focus on the magazine. I'm not certain that it was this room it could've been left in, but I'd say this would definitely be my best guess. Thank you, mikado34 for your very sharp eyes ^^ |
EarlCielJul 16, 2013 9:30 PM
Jul 16, 2013 9:58 PM
#136
EarlCiel said: CreationBreaker said: That actually covered my point of uncertainty about the lure. Although there is no direct evidence to support it at this point, it actually seems to make sense. It also makes me wonder how exactly she got that note to Leon considering that these doors to the dorms (according to someone in this thread) are impossible to breach via force meaning that I doubt that there is an opening for the note to fit through. However, it still doesn't explain how he got the glass ball...I'm still drawing a blank on that one. The note could've been sent in a number of ways, but I believe that he received the note perhaps prior to night time when everyone returns to their room. It's a possibility she left it in front of the door, taped it somewhere, and usually when doors have no opening on either side it is possible that she could've slipped in beneath the door where there's usually an opening. The fact is that he had to have gone to her room at a certain time, and had to have received specific instructions of some sort. How it was delivered could've been through just passing the message by word, but since there was a notepad Kirigi was staring at, the smartest way to deliver a message is definitely through letters. I struggled a lot with how the culprit could've obtained the glass ball, and I've narrowed it down to a single choice- Leon must've stole it from the fortune teller when he wasn't looking. Either it was dropped, misplaced, or just stolen in the flash of an eye are all possibilities, but a given fact is that it belongs to the fortune teller, and I don't think he would willingly give just anyone a glass orb, so this means that Leon had to have obtained it secretly after killing Sayaka it was past 1:30 AM. Whether he went into the store room, the hallway...where he found it is something we can't really say for sure without the evidence. Leon could have easily gone into the rooms that are not prohibited from being entered and gotten the glass ball somewhere because the fortune teller must've misplaced it. EDIT; Actually, about the whole glass ball thing THIS is kind of why we should pay more attention to things that are going on and perhaps take a look at things that others discover xD I mentioned above how the glass ball must've been obtained during Night Time when no one else is around, so he secretly took it from somewhere. This picture that someone posted in this discussion actually leads to a single room...which is amazing because I never even noticed! mikado34 said: (Found in episode 1) ![]() Shaman guy is a laid-back fellow and he could easily have forgotten his crystal ball in the laundry room (which I assume is accessible at any time). So I guess the culprit could be lucky to grab one of his white shirts in the laundry room, bloodstain it and half burn it on purpose. The crystal ball was used to hit the display from a distance and add to the suspense towards shaman guy. As I was reading that post I was just amazed at how sharp eyes this person has lol I swear I didn't even pay attention to the fact that they even had a laundry room since I thought they'd just wear the same clothes everyday. Wait...do they? I don't pay attention to things like that so I kind of was just under the assumption they wore the same clothes every single day lol If the fortune teller is as carefree as he appears to be (I hate to make assumptions, but this one makes sense and follows my theory on how the glass ball had to be misplaced somewhere in order for Leon to obtain it) so it wouldn't surprise me if it was actually the laundry room he left it in! It also makes sense because apparently the laundry room is accessible during night time, so I think that if there would be a room that we could guess he left it in, one high possibility is the Laundry room since it is accessible, and in that screenshot we see him reading a magazine. he could've unknowingly left the glass ball there after directing his focus on the magazine. I'm not certain that it was this room it could've been left in, but I'd say this would definitely be my best guess. Thank you, mikado34 for your very sharp eyes ^^ Well, I had originally thought that she had probably slipped the paper through the bottom of the door, however, you could call it my desire to play devil's advocate. I was pretty much making my point under the assumption that there may be no way to slip it in but that's probably impossible. That notepad sheet would probably be the most indicting evidence so Leon most likely disposed of it with the bloodied clothes that he threw out and as such, we may never see it or be able to use it as evidence. About the crystal ball, I would agree that it was most likely that Hagakure just misplaced it in the Laundry Room (probably not in the storage room) and Leon stole it because it was there and he could use it. We can obviously conclude that it was NOT pre-meditated and as such, Leon would have no reason to steal the Crystal Ball before Night Time. As such, the ball was stolen after the murder. So, yeah...given Hagakure's carefree nature and the image that mikado34 provided, it is highly likely that he left it in the Laundry Room and Leon just took the opportunity. On another note, I wonder if Hagakure has more than one crystal ball given that he seems to misplace those things quite easily. XP MrOCD said: DenjaX said: CreationBreaker said: To be more precise, there is only a certain rule that I am concerned with(I won't mention of course). Other than that, they will definitely follow the rules accordingly so rest assured. They didn't break any rules at the moment. xDDThirteen episodes, huh...if we have a death every other episode, will it be enough? I don't know how many deaths there are since I haven't played the game so I can't really say. I doubt it will be too rushed but I do hope they adhere to Knox's Decalogue as much as possible... Not everyone received the toolbox as a gift from Monokuma >:D Tch, I may have misread the part where Monokuma said: "Last but not least, I sent you all some small gifts." "I want you all to rack your brains around them and enjoy yourself!" The reasons why I believe Monokuma was ALSO referring to the tool set was because: 1. The screen was directing us towards the tool set. 2. Monokuma said "some" which could be referring to multiple gifts. 3. "I want you all to rack your brains around them" may be a sort of pun to hit someone in the head with them. Reasons why I support this part is because the game also has Monokuma making a pun about hitting someone in the head after mentioning the tool set. 4. "small" could literally be referring to the size of the gifts. The other meaning could be that it was referring to the value of whatever gift, which is subjective to one another. Granted, the 3rd line of reasoning would be in colour purple for uncertainty. But putting them together would make it seem most likely that Monokuma was referring to the tool set. Edit: Either way, a tool set exists. It does not matter if there are more. I may just have to re-edit my post, though. Technically, the purple uncertainty was just something I created to denote anything I was still uncertain about. Given that purple words had different meaning in Umineko but would be completely useless here, I just created another meaning for them. For those who are wondering about what it meant in Umineko, the Purple Declarations were introduced in EP8. Any character on the game board could make a Purple Declaration. However, the Purple Declarations could only be true statements. Only one character is allowed to break this trend and that is the culprit. But that's pretty useless when making an argument about the cases in Dangan Ronpa. As such, I denoted the Purple Uncertainty as any point at which I am uncertain about. Anyways, I take it that means that at this point, we can assume that everyone has a tool set in their room even though it contradicts DenjaX's Red Truth. |
(Also known on other places as Hiss13) All hail the adorable chess master! |
Jul 16, 2013 11:04 PM
#137
avengersaint said: Here is my prediction everyone: I believe something that may actually seem unorthodox in a kill-or-be-killed type of anime. I actually believe that Sayaka killed herself, and I will provide some reasons. 1. How would someone get in? - I doubt that she would open the front door for him dude/gal/whatever to come in and bash her up...And I believe that the front door wasn't chopped down or anything, correct? So that leads me to believe that Sayaka unlocked her front door prior to construct her plot to kill herself. 2. Destruction around room? - Sayaka could have easily just taken the sword and slashed around the room to make it seem like a battle took place between her and someone else, and the door knob to the bathroom being busted could also have been part of her plan. 3. Motive - Sayaka seemed to be the most emotionally unstable person out of the entire group. This was clearly demonstrated when she was despaired by the video the group was given by Monobear. She might have thought that she caused her former singing group to die, therefore there was no point in her living anymore. This despair led to her deciding to take her own life. 4. What about Leon! being written backwards? - This is another good piece of evidence. If Leon killed her, why would he leave his name on the wall? If Leon did kill her, then I bet he would be more careful and made sure she was out before leaving the scene. But just in case, as a backup: As a more conventional guess, I think Leon did the murder. I mean, a lot of the evidence could also easily point to Leon. Sorry, I'm unconvinced that this would be the case. While all the evidence points to either Leon, Naegi, or even Hagakure, I do not believe Maizono Sayaka would be the one to kill herself. In such a kill-or-be-killed scenario, wouldn't it be much more beneficial if she let someone else kill her? Besides, if she was in despair, she would want someone to do it for her because she may not be able to commit. I'm not saying it's impossible, I just find it the least likely situation. This thought process applies before Monokuma adds the new rules. The rules I'm referring to are from 7 to 9: 7. A Class Trial will be held a short length of time following a murder committed among the students. Participation is mandatory. 8. If the villain is correctly identified during the Class Trial, he alone will be executed. 9. If the villain is not correctly identified, he alone will graduate, and the remaining students will be executed. Also, if Maizono did commit suicide, how does one explain the burnt article of clothing in the incinerator? The cuff has blood on it. If you are suggesting that someone may have injured themselves, then that means the person must show the injury on their body and then be questioned to why they burned the clothing instead of cleaning it using the laundry room. By burning it in the incinerator, it means that the shirt must have had incriminating evidence that they killed Maizono. mikado34 said: MrOCD said: What if he didn't overlook that part of the incinerator? Could there be another reason to why the clothing didn't have everything incinerated? So many variables to consider. This seems like a perfect way to blame another person. I looked into the first episode and yes here's a hint. ![]() Shaman guy is a laid-back fellow and he could easily have forgotten his crystal ball in the laundry room (which I assume is accessible at any time). So I guess the culprit could be lucky to grab one of his white shirts in the laundry room, bloodstain it and half burn it on purpose. The crystal ball was used to hit the display from a distance and add to the suspense towards shaman guy. Sorry, but that would be highly unlikely, at least from your explanation. If Leon, assuming he was the real culprit, wanted to frame someone else while not knowing Maizono was still alive when she wrote the dying message, wouldn't the culprit use something that wouldn't make him a potential suspect? If he wanted to frame Hagakure, he would burn a green/black coat instead of something white. While it was a good theory, there is evidence that goes against the idea. There might be another reason to why the clothing wasn't completely incinerated. This idea only works if the culprit wasn't Leon. Off-topic: Holy crap, that ad is annoying. So intrusive. |
MrOCDJul 17, 2013 12:26 AM
Jul 16, 2013 11:33 PM
#138
This is what I thought while playing the game: Cuplrit: Leon, was the most suited to be the one who murdered her. Why? Because of the 11037 evidence alone, plus there was something (I do not recall if it was showed during the investigation, so I won't say what it is) that pretty much proved that it wasn't a red herring. Asides from that, the incinerator's buttons are not that hard to target, specially not for the All-Star of the group. Prove Naegi's innocence: well, he wouldn't have needed to break the doorknob if he knew about the misalignment. Anyways, thanks to MrOCD for making this thread. I hope you do the same for the following cases, specially 4th and 5th which are the most interesting IMO. |
"I do not know where this love will take me..." |
Jul 17, 2013 3:20 AM
#139
MrOCD said: mikado34 said: MrOCD said: What if he didn't overlook that part of the incinerator? Could there be another reason to why the clothing didn't have everything incinerated? So many variables to consider. This seems like a perfect way to blame another person. I looked into the first episode and yes here's a hint. ![]() Shaman guy is a laid-back fellow and he could easily have forgotten his crystal ball in the laundry room (which I assume is accessible at any time). So I guess the culprit could be lucky to grab one of his white shirts in the laundry room, bloodstain it and half burn it on purpose. The crystal ball was used to hit the display from a distance and add to the suspense towards shaman guy. Sorry, but that would be highly unlikely, at least from your explanation. If Leon, assuming he was the real culprit, wanted to frame someone else while not knowing Maizono was still alive when she wrote the dying message, wouldn't the culprit use something that wouldn't make him a potential suspect? If he wanted to frame Hagakure, he would burn a green/black coat instead of something white. While it was a good theory, there is evidence that goes against the idea. There might be another reason to why the clothing wasn't completely incinerated. This idea only works if the culprit wasn't Leon. Hmmm, then I'm blank on how to explain the clothing part. Man, it's in situations like this that I wish the players had professional detective tools to investigate the crime, like in the Ace Attorney series. Dangan Ronpa sure is frustrating when you can only rely on observations ^^" |
Jul 17, 2013 6:13 AM
#140
Mm... Pulling apart which pieces of evidence are real and which are not is crucial to solving the case (or any case in general). To try to tease out whether the cuff is planted-- On considering whether evidence is fake, we need to consider at least two aspects: 1) Does the evidence incriminate certain parties while excluding other parties? In order for evidence to be fabricated, it has to at least conclusively rule out a certain set of people (an example of evidence that does not rule out people would be the golden sword found in the room. The list of suspects does not particularly change if the sword had not been on the floor, so there is no reason to plant the sword and plant all the slashes in the room if this does not exclude anyone from guilt. Based on this reasoning, it is unlikely the sword is fake) 2) Is it possible for the evidence to be fabricated? Could all aspects of the evidence be reasonably fabricated given the known events surrounding the crime? In the case of the burnt handcuffs: 1) Those incriminated are those who wear the same handcuffs. I had a screenshot earlier of all people who wear white shirts of some sort: ![]() These are from Hagakure, Yamada, Ishimaru, Fujisaki, Kuwata, and Togami. All these people would not benefit from planting this as fake evidence, as it points straight back to them as possible murderers. At the same time, this evidence would "exclude" from guilt those who don't wear a white shirt with a sleeve cuff similar to the burnt cuff. There is a clear separation of people who this evidence incriminates vs. excludes, so the possibility of fabrication for motivational reasons is there. 2) In order for the evidence to be fabricated, the culprit will need to have brought the shirt with them to the crime scene (to obtain the blood stain), brought it back to the garbage disposal room, and have it half-incinerated such that the cuff is left untouched. It is possible for the culprit to obtain a shirt that wasn't their own from the laundry room. Someone could leave their clothing there, and anyone else could have taken it. They could have brought that shirt with them to the crime scene and dipped it in the victim's blood after the deed had been done. It is also possible for the culprit to intentionally burn everything except for the sleeve cuff of the shirt. However, this aspect is a bit risky--it's possible that the incinerator's strong enough that everything would be burnt and nothing would be left over, and this would trivialize the entire effort to plant fake evidence. If someone wanted to plant an incriminating, bloodied shirt, I would think that it's less risky to just leave the bloodied shirt near the incinerator. There is no risk of total destruction of the shirt, but its presence by the incinerator in the garbage disposal room still can shed suspicion on the possibility of someone trying to get rid of it. As a result, although it is possible that the evidence was fabricated, some aspects of the evidence (the fact that it was burned) are rather risky for a fabrication, making it unlikely that it is fake. I'm uncomfortable with saying the sleeve cuff is fake. The dying message, on the other hand...the incrimination is clear, and the difficulty of fabricating such evidence is low. The awkward positioning of the message could be done by the killer to match the victim's body position. It's plausible that the victim would want to hide the dying message from a killer, so they would position the body in such a way that supports this. I think it...can easily go both ways for the message. |
Jul 17, 2013 8:33 AM
#141
MrOCD said: avengersaint said: Here is my prediction everyone: I believe something that may actually seem unorthodox in a kill-or-be-killed type of anime. I actually believe that Sayaka killed herself, and I will provide some reasons. 1. How would someone get in? - I doubt that she would open the front door for him dude/gal/whatever to come in and bash her up...And I believe that the front door wasn't chopped down or anything, correct? So that leads me to believe that Sayaka unlocked her front door prior to construct her plot to kill herself. 2. Destruction around room? - Sayaka could have easily just taken the sword and slashed around the room to make it seem like a battle took place between her and someone else, and the door knob to the bathroom being busted could also have been part of her plan. 3. Motive - Sayaka seemed to be the most emotionally unstable person out of the entire group. This was clearly demonstrated when she was despaired by the video the group was given by Monobear. She might have thought that she caused her former singing group to die, therefore there was no point in her living anymore. This despair led to her deciding to take her own life. 4. What about Leon! being written backwards? - This is another good piece of evidence. If Leon killed her, why would he leave his name on the wall? If Leon did kill her, then I bet he would be more careful and made sure she was out before leaving the scene. But just in case, as a backup: As a more conventional guess, I think Leon did the murder. I mean, a lot of the evidence could also easily point to Leon. Sorry, I'm unconvinced that this would be the case. While all the evidence points to either Leon, Naegi, or even Hagakure, I do not believe Maizono Sayaka would be the one to kill herself. In such a kill-or-be-killed scenario, wouldn't it be much more beneficial if she let someone else kill her? Besides, if she was in despair, she would want someone to do it for her because she may not be able to commit. I'm not saying it's impossible, I just find it the least likely situation. This thought process applies before Monokuma adds the new rules. The rules I'm referring to are from 7 to 9: 7. A Class Trial will be held a short length of time following a murder committed among the students. Participation is mandatory. 8. If the villain is correctly identified during the Class Trial, he alone will be executed. 9. If the villain is not correctly identified, he alone will graduate, and the remaining students will be executed. Also, if Maizono did commit suicide, how does one explain the burnt article of clothing in the incinerator? The cuff has blood on it. If you are suggesting that someone may have injured themselves, then that means the person must show the injury on their body and then be questioned to why they burned the clothing instead of cleaning it using the laundry room. By burning it in the incinerator, it means that the shirt must have had incriminating evidence that they killed Maizono. mikado34 said: MrOCD said: What if he didn't overlook that part of the incinerator? Could there be another reason to why the clothing didn't have everything incinerated? So many variables to consider. This seems like a perfect way to blame another person. I looked into the first episode and yes here's a hint. ![]() Shaman guy is a laid-back fellow and he could easily have forgotten his crystal ball in the laundry room (which I assume is accessible at any time). So I guess the culprit could be lucky to grab one of his white shirts in the laundry room, bloodstain it and half burn it on purpose. The crystal ball was used to hit the display from a distance and add to the suspense towards shaman guy. Sorry, but that would be highly unlikely, at least from your explanation. If Leon, assuming he was the real culprit, wanted to frame someone else while not knowing Maizono was still alive when she wrote the dying message, wouldn't the culprit use something that wouldn't make him a potential suspect? If he wanted to frame Hagakure, he would burn a green/black coat instead of something white. While it was a good theory, there is evidence that goes against the idea. There might be another reason to why the clothing wasn't completely incinerated. This idea only works if the culprit wasn't Leon. Off-topic: Holy crap, that ad is annoying. So intrusive. Yeah I can totally see why my "first theory" is unconvincing, but I just thought it would be interesting to have a different kind of a theory, you know? |
Jul 17, 2013 11:47 AM
#142
Case 1 Timeline So, after reviewing the entire thread [barring any game spoilers], I have decided to come up with a giant Theory of Everything that has to do with Case #1. The theory will be arranged into a timeline, a section detailing which evidence proves what events, a section that details the motivation behind each event, a section that details how the theory explains each piece of evidence thus far, and a section for proving Naegi's innocence. Afterwards, there will be a summary section detailing the who-dunnit, how-dunnit, and why-dunnit. As per my previous theory, this theory shall also follow the red truth/blue truth convention. Some of my last theory's points will be copy-and-pasted over here. Now, then. It is time to start the show! Come one, come all! Bear witness to CreationBreaker's magnificent and colorful deduction show! I guarantee that it will be a spectacle you will regret missing! Timeline Some time during the evening: Monokuma sends the students to the AV Room where they see DVDs which were meant to be their "motivation". Maizono Sayaka, after seeing her DVD, goes nuts and runs out of the AV Room. Naegi subsequently runs out to reassure her that he would protect her. Shortly after: Maizono steals a knife from the kitchen and plots a murder. 21:45: Maizono goes to Naegi's room, with the knife on her person, where she requests the room switch, claiming it to be out of fear. Naegi happily obliges. 21:55: The room switch is completed. The next five events took place between 22:00 and 00:00. A placeholder time will be used to separate each event but note that these events must take place in the following order but at within the noted time frame with the exceptions of the asterisked events which can be interchanged. [22:30: Maizono writes a luring note on a notepad which tells him to come to "Maizono's room" at approximately 1:15. 22:45: Maizono leaves Naegi's room. 22:46: Maizono switches the name plates on her and Naegi's doors. ** 22:50: Maizono slips the notepad sheet underneath Leon's door. ** 22:52: Maizono returns to Naegi's room and waits for Leon's arrival.] 1:15: Leon knocks on Naegi's door, thinking it is Maizono's room. 1:16: Maizono, hiding the knife on her person opens the door and invites Leon into the room. 1:17: Maizono closes the door and turns around while drawing the knife. 1:17: Maizono starts her attack. 1:18: Leon dodges her continuous attacks as she chases him around the room. 1:20: Leon notices the katana and picks it up to defend himself with. 1:21: Leon parries Maizono's continuous attacks with the unsheathed replica blade leading to some of the gilding falling off. 1:23: Leon hits Maizono's wrist with the blunt end of the blade causing her to drop the knife. 1:24: Maizono, seeing the disadvantage, runs to the bathroom and shuts herself in. 1:24: Leon attempts to open the door but cannot. 1:25: Leon searches the entire room and finds Naegi's tool set. 1:26: Leon attempts to dismantle the doorknob and forces his way in. 1:27: Leon forces the door open and picks up the knife. 1:27: He lunges in and stabs Maizono in the abdomen, causing blood to splatter all over Leon's clothes. 1:28: Leon escapes and runs out of the room while leaving the door unlocked. 1:29: Maizono, noticing Leon is gone, writes her dying message, 'LEON', from her perspective. 1:30: Maizono dies from blood loss. 1:30: Leon returns to his room and goes into the bathroom to attempt to wash off the blood. 1:31: Unable to do so, Leon runs to the laundry room. 1:31: Leon notices a crystal ball sitting on a table and takes it. 1:32: Leon heads to the incinerator area. 1:33: Leon pitches the crystal ball through the grating onto the button in the incinerator room. 1:33: The ball hits button and falls onto the ground and breaks while the gate opens. 1:34: Leon opens up the incinerator and stuffs his clothes into it along with the notepad sheet. 1:35: Leon shuts the incinerator leaving the cuff out and turns on the incinerator. 1:36: Leon closes the incinerator gate and returns to his room. Evidence-->Events Some time during the evening: Monokuma sends the students to the AV Room where they see DVDs which were meant to be their "motivation". Maizono Sayaka, after seeing her DVD, goes nuts and runs out of the AV Room. Naegi subsequently runs out to reassure her that he would protect her. Observations Shortly after: Maizono steals a knife from the kitchen and plots a murder. The knife is the same type that was in the kitchen. 21:45: Maizono goes to Naegi's room, with the knife on her person, where she requests the room switch, claiming it to be out of fear. Naegi happily obliges. 21:55: The room switch is completed. Third person observation. The next five events took place between 22:00 and 00:00. A placeholder time will be used to separate each event but note that these events must take place in the following order but at within the noted time frame with the exceptions of the asterisked events which can be interchanged. [22:30: Maizono writes a luring note on a notepad which tells him to come to "Maizono's room" at approximately 1:15. Kirigiri-chan stares for a long period of time at the notepad on the desk.Most likely, this mean that she noticed something off about the notepad. 22:45: Maizono leaves Naegi's room. 22:46: Maizono switches the name plates on her and Naegi's doors. ** Kirigiri-chan-sama notices that Naegi's and Maizono's room nameplates are switched. 22:50: Maizono slips the notepad sheet underneath Leon's door. ** 22:52: Maizono returns to Naegi's room and waits for Leon's arrival.] Maizono dies in Naegi's room. 1:15: Leon knocks on Naegi's door, thinking it is Maizono's room. The room nameplates were switched 1:16: Maizono, hiding the knife on her person opens the door and invites Leon into the room. 1:17: Maizono closes the door and turns around while drawing the knife. 1:17: Maizono starts her attack. 1:18: Leon dodges her continuous attacks as she chases him around the room. Signs of a struggle. 1:20: Leon notices the katana and picks it up to defend himself with. 1:21: Leon parries Maizono's continuous attacks with the unsheathed replica blade leading to some of the gilding falling off. The state of the Replica Blade post-mortem. 1:23: Leon hits Maizono's wrist with the blunt end of the blade causing her to drop the knife. Maizono's fractured wrist and the golden splotches on her wrist 1:24: Maizono, seeing the disadvantage, runs to the bathroom and shuts herself in. 1:24: Leon attempts to open the door but cannot. 1:25: Leon searches the entire room and finds Naegi's tool set. 1:26: Leon attempts to dismantle the doorknob and forces his way in. The state of the door and knob post-mortem. 1:27: Leon forces the door open and picks up the knife. 1:27: He lunges in and stabs Maizono in the abdomen, causing blood to splatter all over Leon's clothes. The state of the corpse combined with the bloodied cuff 1:28: Leon escapes and runs out of the room while leaving the door unlocked. The door was unlocked after Naegi entered the room. 1:29: Maizono, noticing Leon is gone, writes her dying message, 'LEON', from her perspective. The orientation of the 1's combined with the rectangular writing of the 037 combined with the fact that the message exists. 1:30: Maizono dies from blood loss. Monokuma Report 01 1:30: Leon returns to his room and goes into the bathroom to attempt to wash off the blood. 1:31: Unable to do so, Leon runs to the laundry room. The clothes have been burned 1:31: Leon notices a crystal ball sitting on a table and takes it. 1:32: Leon heads to the incinerator area. 1:33: Leon pitches the crystal ball through the grating onto the button in the incinerator room. Leon is the baseball dude. 1:33: The ball hits button and falls onto the ground and breaks while the gate opens. The shattered remains of the crystal ball were found next to a pole with switches on it. 1:34: Leon opens up the incinerator and stuffs his clothes into it along with the notepad sheet. The burn on the cuff 1:35: Leon shuts the incinerator leaving the cuff out and turns on the incinerator. The cuff still exists. 1:36: Leon closes the incinerator gate and returns to his room. The incinerator gate was found closed in the morning. Motivations behind events Some time during the evening: Monokuma sends the students to the AV Room where they see DVDs which were meant to be their "motivation". Maizono Sayaka, after seeing her DVD, goes nuts and runs out of the AV Room. Naegi subsequently runs out to reassure her that he would protect her. Monokuma is a jackass who wants to see despair. Naegi is naive and gullible Shortly after: Maizono steals a knife from the kitchen and plots a murder. Maizono freaked out as a result of the contents of the DVD and wanted to leave as soon as possible. 21:45: Maizono goes to Naegi's room, with the knife on her person, where she requests the room switch, claiming it to be out of fear. Naegi happily obliges. Maizono had plotted the murder at this point. Naegi is gullible as heck. 21:55: The room switch is completed. Naegi is gullible. Do i really need to repeat this? The next five events took place between 22:00 and 00:00. A placeholder time will be used to separate each event but note that these events must take place in the following order but at within the noted time frame with the exceptions of the asterisked events which can be interchanged. [22:30: Maizono writes a luring note on a notepad which tells him to come to "Maizono's room" at approximately 1:15. 22:45: Maizono leaves Naegi's room. Time to commence operation Get Out of this Place 22:46: Maizono switches the name plates on her and Naegi's doors. ** She needed to fool her victim into thinking it was her room. She would switch back the room plates after the deed was complete to frame Naegi. 22:50: Maizono slips the notepad sheet underneath Leon's door. ** The luuuuure 22:52: Maizono returns to Naegi's room and waits for Leon's arrival.] Time to sit and wait 1:15: Leon knocks on Naegi's door, thinking it is Maizono's room. Leon responded to the bait. 1:16: Maizono, hiding the knife on her person opens the door and invites Leon into the room. Ready to kill. 1:17: Maizono closes the door and turns around while drawing the knife. And thus 1:17: Maizono starts her attack. She goes in for the kill. 1:18: Leon dodges her continuous attacks as she chases him around the room. Self-defense. After all, he doesn't want to die. 1:20: Leon notices the katana and picks it up to defend himself with. Better self-defense 1:21: Leon parries Maizono's continuous attacks with the unsheathed replica blade leading to some of the gilding falling off. The extent of self defense. 1:23: Leon hits Maizono's wrist with the blunt end of the blade causing her to drop the knife. The success of self defense. After all, an athlete is much more agile than an idol. 1:24: Maizono, seeing the disadvantage, runs to the bathroom and shuts herself in. She saw a disadvantage and couldn't pick up the knife again, so she hid. 1:24: Leon attempts to open the door but cannot. Leon sees an opportunity to kill. However, since he can't open the door, he assumes that the door is locked as he thinks it's Maizono's room even though it's because of the misalignment that he can't open the door. 1:25: Leon searches the entire room and finds Naegi's tool set. He needed a way to break into the room. 1:26: Leon attempts to dismantle the doorknob and forces his way in. Well, duh. He can't kill her if she's behind the door. 1:27: Leon forces the door open and picks up the knife. Time to go in for the kill. 1:27: He lunges in and stabs Maizono in the abdomen, causing blood to splatter all over Leon's clothes. If she doesn't die from the shock of the impalement, she'll die from the blood loss. It's a win-win for him. 1:28: Leon escapes and runs out of the room while leaving the door unlocked. He had to rush to get rid of the incriminating evidence. 1:29: Maizono, noticing Leon is gone, writes her dying message, 'LEON', from her perspective. Must...leave...dying...message... 1:30: Maizono dies from blood loss. 1:30: Leon returns to his room and goes into the bathroom to attempt to wash off the blood. The best place for some damn privacy. 1:31: Unable to do so, Leon runs to the laundry room. Night Tiiiiiime. That means no running water. 1:31: Leon notices a crystal ball sitting on a table and takes it. Hagakure was careless and left it there. Leon just decided that he could use it. 1:32: Leon heads to the incinerator area. To burn the clothes 1:33: Leon pitches the crystal ball through the grating onto the button in the incinerator room. 1:33: The ball hits button and falls onto the ground and breaks while the gate opens. 1:34: Leon opens up the incinerator and stuffs his clothes into it along with the notepad sheet. He needed to burn the two most incriminating pieces of evidence. 1:35: Leon shuts the incinerator leaving the cuff out and turns on the incinerator. He was in a rush. 1:36: Leon closes the incinerator gate and returns to his room. A job well done, Leon....NOT! Events-->Evidence Monobear File 01: The estimated time of death is 1:30 AM. Satisfied by the proposed timeline. The corpse was found in Naegi's room. The victim died in the bathroom. Maizono planned to frame Naegi. Apart from having a knife stuck in her abdomen, her right wrist also appears to be fractured. The attack to her wrist caused damage to her arm. Knife: Taken from the kitchen before the room switch and was used by both the killer and the victim as a weapon. Gold Sword with & Without Scabbard: Upon finding the sword, the sword's scabbard had been removed. This may signify it being used. Leon used it. The gilding on the blade has come off in several places. Whether or not it was originally like that is up for questioning. The paint rubbed off during each parry between the knife and the blade. It also rubbed off during the collision between the blade and Maizono's hand as evidenced by the splotches on Maizono's wrist. Maizono's Right Hand: According to Naegi, Maizono's right wrist seems to be splotched with gold colouring. The killer hit the victim on the wrist with the replica blade causing the paint to transfer. Bedroom Nameplates: The nameplates on Naegi's and Maizono's doors have been swapped. Maizono switched the nameplates. Maizono's DVD: Motivation. Maizono freaked out like a nut after seeing her DVD. Nuff Said. Incinerator: The trash room's incinerator seems to need a key before being able to be near proximity of it. Yamada was seen holding the key to the incinerator. Is there some underlying meaning behind this? There is a button in the incinerator area which opens the gate from the inside. Burnt Article of Clothing: It was found in front of the trash room's incinerator. There is blood on the cuff. Leon's clothes were stuffed in in a rushed manner. As such, some of the bloody cloth still remains. Shattered Glass Ball: Shards of the ball was found in front of the trash room's incinerator. Seems to belong to Hagakure. Hagakure's misplaced Crystal Ball which Leon stole and pitched into the incinerator room. Bathroom Doorknob: Only Naegi and the victim, Maizono, knew about the door being misaligned. Which is one of the two reasons why Leon assumed the door was locked. (the second being that he thought it was Maizono's dorm thanks to the nameplate switch) Signs of force are evident on Naegi's bathroom doorknob. Leon used a tool set to force his way into the bathroom. Dying Message: This message is written in blood on the wall of Naegi's bathroom. "11037" Fujisaki, the Super Duper High School Programmer, may possibly understand the cryptic coding. Addressed in the blue truth. The message is Leon written in English upside down. The 11 is actually an incomplete 'N' as both 1s have improper orientations. Naegi's Tool Set: Naegi's tool set, which came with his room. According to Monokuma, everyone is given a tool set of their own. The tool set that was used to break into the bathroom. Signs of a Struggle: Signs of a struggle are visible around Naegi's room. The walls, floor, and the bathroom's door appears to have slash marks. The original aggressor could not land a hit on her target and kept slashing at the walls as a result. Naegi's Testimony: On the night of the murder, Naegi Makoto and Maizono Sayaka exchanged rooms and keys. Supported by the Blue Truth. Naegi's key was found on the floor of his room after the body was discovered. Supported by the Blue Truth. Maizono proposed the exchange to Naegi because she was afraid. Explained by the Blue Truth as Maizono's ruse. Naegi's testimony is true by Knox's 7th and 9th Commandment. {Not exactly sure if Knox's Decalogue applies here for Naegi} Unofficial Curfew: Celes proposed that everyone should stay in their rooms for the duration of "Night Time." No punishment is given if one was to break this rule. At this point, it is unknown whether anyone else besides the culprit broke the rule due to lack of punishment. However, the lack of punishment is motivation enough to break the curfew rule. Proving Naegi's Innocence: As stated in the evidence, only he and Maizono knew about the misalignment of the door. Seeing as the door was forcibly broken into, the killer did not know about the misalignment of the door and assumed that it was locked when he couldn't get in and as a result, broke into the room with the tools in the desk drawer. One more thing: Why lure in Leon? Let's look at the list of students The Other Girls-This would probably be tougher as most of them are quite cautious Naegi- Maizono's fall guy. She needed him alive. Hagakure- Big Guy. Wouldn't be easy to kill. Ishimaru- Huge stickler for rules. Would probably refuse to break curfew. Oowada- Like Hagakure, a big guy. Togami- Has been cautious from the very beginning. Would be hard to lure out. Yamada- Just look at that weight difference. The other students would just be bad choices. In summary: Who-dunnit? Kuwata Leon is the killer. How-dunnit? Maizono lured Leon into her room where she proceeded to attack him. Leon defended and then turned the tables on Maizono who ran into the bathroom. Leon then proceeded to break into the bathroom forcefully and stab Maizono before he left to dispose of the evidence. Why-dunnit?Maizono wanted to get the hell out of the school and picked a victim. Leon acted in self-defense first and then seized an opportunity to kill. Thank you for staying with my deduction spectacle. I do hope you enjoyed the show. EDIT: BBcode Errors...Ugh... |
Ashen_MikoJul 17, 2013 2:21 PM
(Also known on other places as Hiss13) All hail the adorable chess master! |
Jul 17, 2013 12:21 PM
#143
CreationBreaker said: Now, then. It is time to start the show! Come one, come all! Bear witness to CreationBreaker's EarlCiel's + DenjaX + mikado34 + CreationBreaker + everyone else who helped by contributing their thoughts that made this magnificent and colorful deduction show possible! I guarantee that it will be a spectacle you will regret missing! Upupupu...I AM A BEAR! and it truly is maginificent that you have come up with this. You deserve a round of applause but so do the others you took ideas from so I fixed your post for you. Don't act like you solved everything by yourself. people deserve some credit for contributing those ideas not just you. give credit where it's needed by maybe quote the people who speculated those things with their thought processes added on or how they came to that conclusion with supported evidence that they used. It looks like you came up with those situations from thin air because it looks a lot like you did just now. |
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Jul 17, 2013 12:32 PM
#144
Such a massive train of thoughts CreationBreaker, bravo. Aside from all the theory, I have a problem with Maizono's logic. She must have some kind of plan in case her killing attempt should backfire. Locking yourself inside the bathroom isn't the best idea since you are trapped and a door handle is breakable. Besides she only learned about the door that night. I don't think she had it planned out that well to begin with. |
Jul 17, 2013 2:17 PM
#145
Mono-bear said: Upupupu...I AM A BEAR! and it truly is maginificent that you have come up with this. You deserve a round of applause but so do the others you took ideas from so I fixed your post for you. Don't act like you solved everything by yourself. people deserve some credit for contributing those ideas not just you. give credit where it's needed by maybe quote the people who speculated those things with their thought processes added on or how they came to that conclusion with supported evidence that they used. It looks like you came up with those situations from thin air because it looks a lot like you did just now. If you didn't notice, in the very first sentence, I state So, after reviewing the entire thread [barring any game spoilers], I have decided to come up with a giant Theory of Everything that has to do with Case #1. I figured it was implied that I had merged my theory with the theories others proposed in this thread. However, you are right that I should have probably quoted and referenced. You are right that all of those people deserve credit. At the same time, all I said in that line that you claimed to edit is that I am presenting this deduction. As in that was my show. My colorful show. mikado34 said: Obviously, Maizono wasn't exactly in the best of mental states. The smarter thing to do at that time would have been to leave the room and find another location to hide in like her own room where Naegi was at that point. In other words, should the murder fail, hide somewhere. I think she actually had that as a back-up plan but forgot about it completely in the heat of the moment. Even so, I have my doubts that that backup plan would work against a baseball player. Such a massive train of thoughts CreationBreaker, bravo. Aside from all the theory, I have a problem with Maizono's logic. She must have some kind of plan in case her killing attempt should backfire. Locking yourself inside the bathroom isn't the best idea since you are trapped and a door handle is breakable. Besides she only learned about the door that night. I don't think she had it planned out that well to begin with. |
(Also known on other places as Hiss13) All hail the adorable chess master! |
Jul 17, 2013 2:27 PM
#146
*nod nod* oh but I didn't just edit that part Monobear said: CreationBreaker said: Bear witness to CreationBreaker's EarlCiel's + DenjaX + mikado34 + CreationBreaker + everyone else who helped by contributing their thoughts that made my magnificent and colorful deduction show possible! but indeed twas a very colorful you presented. my eyes are still trying to adjust to seeing such a bright blue upupupu |
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Jul 17, 2013 2:33 PM
#147
Mono-bear said: *nod nod* oh but I didn't just edit that part Monobear said: CreationBreaker said: Bear witness to CreationBreaker's EarlCiel's + DenjaX + mikado34 + CreationBreaker + everyone else who helped by contributing their thoughts that made my magnificent and colorful deduction show possible! but indeed twas a very colorful you presented. my eyes are still trying to adjust to seeing such a bright blue upupupu That's what I get for not reading properly. Damn...ever since I wrote out that long timeline and proof, my brain has slowed down a lot. I mean, that thing took two hours to finish and even then it still had its errors (BBcode stuff)...maybe I just need to relax a bit. |
(Also known on other places as Hiss13) All hail the adorable chess master! |
Jul 17, 2013 2:35 PM
#148
* Super Model: She didn't want to go to the Trial * Super Shaman: His crystal ball is broken.. but that's so obvious that I don't think he could be the guilty * Celes: She's so misterious, why did she want so hard that everybody stay on their rooms at night? Why is she so sarcastic? Other theory is Maizono suicide, I don't think this so much but it's possible. Why was she so ehhhmm "suspecting" when Naegi leaves her in his room? I think she was tramming something.. but what? |
Jul 17, 2013 9:35 PM
#150
CreationBreaker said: Case 1 Timeline Night Tiiiiiime. That means no running water. Thank you for staying with my deduction spectacle. I do hope you enjoyed the show. Hoho, you were able to find that very sneaky information I didn't add. Well, I couldn't find that fact until much later, but I decided not to put it in. (That fact is told right before telling us about the small gifts.) I will now update the topic post since this is told to us by Monokuma. Great deduction. There is very little to nothing I can refute about other than the characters' carelessness. It's all in theory, but it's logical to factor in carelessness in solving these cases. After all, everything is done within a small time frame, and sometimes not everything goes the way one wants it to. avengersaint said: Yeah I can totally see why my "first theory" is unconvincing, but I just thought it would be interesting to have a different kind of a theory, you know? Eh? Did I do something wrong? Did I approach too strongly? Is it my name? Is it too obnoxious? Is it not obnoxious enough? You can post any theories you want. My goal is to point out the inconsistency of them. Your idea is possible, but one has to consider just how much effort was to put into the suicide. Like, was there a need to do this and that? Just how much does she want people to despise her for trolling us AND committing suicide. If she wanted to grab sympathy from the others, I'd think she would do that in her own room without any fuss. What I'm asking is: Can you expand on how and why Maizono committed suicide? Can you explain every possible bit of evidence that may be related to how Maizono committed suicide. Kasegawa said: too little evidence to solve.. There is enough information to go around solving this case. If anything, I'd say there is a little too much being given about it. You just gotta use your IMAGINATION™ and put the pieces of the puzzle together for it to make sense. |
MrOCDJul 17, 2013 11:13 PM
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