Attack on Titan
pming said: http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?n=B00C38PQE2 Blu-ray:111860pt http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?n=B00C38RE38 DVD:22055pt My computation was lower than the numbers above, so I'm back to square one on how the Stalker makes these predictions. Anyway, if SnK maintains rank 1, the numbers will go up. If not, the numbers will go down. These are just estimates. Mother of god.jpg |
pming said: http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?n=B00C38PQE2 Blu-ray:111860pt http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/show.cgi?n=B00C38RE38 DVD:22055pt My computation was lower than the numbers above, so I'm back to square one on how the Stalker makes these predictions. Anyway, if SnK maintains rank 1, the numbers will go up. If not, the numbers will go down. These are just estimates. What the...?! These numbers o.o |
| Coming from a long history of using the Amazon Stalker to help my analysis of anime BD/DVD sales, I have to add a note of caution in the discussion: While the Stalker is very helpful in giving a ball park figure for the final sales in most cases, for titles that keep hitting the topmost positions, particularly #1, the sales estimate can go way off. This is because for item at #1 it is very hard to estimate how many new orders are being added, even on average, every hour (or day). Those 112k estimate of BD sales CANNOT BE TRUSTED. Madoka also hit something like that at one point but we know it never sold that many. The "sales estimate" went down later, but it still proved to be an overestimate compared to its actual sales. On the other hand, the actual sales of Evangelion movie proved to be higher than the final "sales estimate" by a large margin. Conventional wisdom among fans in Japan is that it will come to around 50k for the BD and perhaps another 10k for the DVD, with the total of around 60k give and take 10k. Of course depending on the reception of the series as it progresses, this estimate may still fluctuate and come up or down. |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: Coming from a long history of using the Amazon Stalker to help my analysis of anime BD/DVD sales, I have to add a note of caution in the discussion: While the Stalker is very helpful in giving a ball park figure for the final sales in most cases, for titles that keep hitting the topmost positions, particularly #1, the sales estimate can go way off. This is because for item at #1 it is very hard to estimate how many new orders are being added, even on average, every hour (or day). Those 112k estimate of BD sales CANNOT BE TRUSTED. Madoka also hit something like that at one point but we know it never sold that many. The "sales estimate" went down later, but it still proved to be an overestimate compared to its actual sales. On the other hand, the actual sales of Evangelion movie proved to be higher than the final "sales estimate" by a large margin. Conventional wisdom among fans in Japan is that it will come to around 50k for the BD and perhaps another 10k for the DVD, with the total of around 60k give and take 10k. Of course depending on the reception of the series as it progresses, this estimate may still fluctuate and come up or down. Thing is Madoka's conclusion was a disaster so not surprised it didn't meet its estimates |
Darklight0303 said: Disaster only to very few people, mind you. The point I am trying to state is the Stalker estimate can be grossly underestimate/overestimate for titles that keep staying at #1 and the error would have NOTHING to do with how people actually perceive the series but in the intrinsic limitation of the Stalker estimation mechanism. Thing is Madoka's conclusion was a disaster so not surprised it didn't meet its estimates To look at it from another angle, quite a lot of people deem Evangelion 3.33 to be a big disappointment but its actual sales is much much above the Stalker estimate. This cannot be explained by your logic. |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
pming said: Can't really blame them, because sales at that time with VHS/LD is not easily comparable to the sale now with BD/DVD. Bake still holds the record for midnight anime series (Eva is an evening anime though it was aired near midnight when it was re-broadcast) and for anime in the DVD/BD age - and it is during the DVD/BD age where anime disc sales became a significant measurement of success of an anime series (who cared about how many VHS tapes the first Gundam or Macross sold, for example?) People tend to only mention about Bake (around 80k average) holding the record, but the top record for bestselling tv series is actually for the original Evangelion tv series (at over 100k) pre-2000. pming said: A very reasonable guess. What I see is that vol.1 could sell significantly more than the average with the inclusion of vol.0 manga so vol.1 could go 60k or more but the average should be closer to 50k.We really have to wait and see. For now, my personal prediction is that it will get 40-50k in average sales which puts it at Fate/Zero-Code Geass-Macross Frontier level, which btw is already really really really good. |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
| Shingeki no Kyojin DB/DVD volume 1 cover |
aria93 said: Shingeki no Kyojin DB/DVD volume 1 cover Hmmm so they're doing a 1 character per DVD theme. I know which one is gonna sell like hotcakes on that alone. |
Darklight0303 said: aria93 said: Shingeki no Kyojin DB/DVD volume 1 cover Hmmm so they're doing a 1 character per DVD theme. I know which one is gonna sell like hotcakes on that alone. Seems so.I bet next is Mikasa and then Armin.Which one do you think it will? Btw, how many BD/DVD will be out?And how many episodes each? |
aria93 said: Darklight0303 said: aria93 said: Shingeki no Kyojin DB/DVD volume 1 cover Hmmm so they're doing a 1 character per DVD theme. I know which one is gonna sell like hotcakes on that alone. Seems so.I bet next is Mikasa and then Armin.Which one do you think it will? Btw, how many BD/DVD will be out?And how many episodes each? Oh the irony. It's the one with the character in your sig >:P |
Darklight0303 said: Oh the irony. It's the one with the character in your sig >:P Haha, I hope so.He is the most popular character in the japanese SnK fandom so I am pretty sure his face will sell a lot :p |
Makise11May 18, 2013 9:00 AM
aria93 said: Darklight0303 said: Oh the irony. It's the one with the character in your sig >:P Haha, I hope so.He is the most popular character in the japanese SnK fandom so I pretty sure his face will sell a lot :p His face is all over Tumblr too. |
aria93 said: Could have been better. The one on the cover of vol.1 of the manga has more impact, for example.Shingeki no Kyojin DB/DVD volume 1 cover |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: aria93 said: Could have been better. The one on the cover of vol.1 of the manga has more impact, for example.Shingeki no Kyojin DB/DVD volume 1 cover you don't like Eren showing you his crotch? |
| The Art of Eight |
dankickyou said: Nyah, that was fine, but I wish the giant is shown more clearly and more imposing, and more tension for Eren's jumping action..symbv said: you don't like Eren showing you his crotch?aria93 said: Could have been better. The one on the cover of vol.1 of the manga has more impact, for example.Shingeki no Kyojin DB/DVD volume 1 cover |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
Darklight0303 said: aria93 said: Darklight0303 said: Oh the irony. It's the one with the character in your sig >:P Haha, I hope so.He is the most popular character in the japanese SnK fandom so I pretty sure his face will sell a lot :p His face is all over Tumblr too. Haha, I know.I reblog a lot of his pics there :P symbv said: Nyah, that was fine, but I wish the giant is shown more clearly and more imposing, and more tension for Eren's jumping action.. I agree.I would have preferred a cover in which the colossal titan was more imposing as you said. |
aria93 said: Darklight0303 said: aria93 said: Darklight0303 said: Oh the irony. It's the one with the character in your sig >:P Haha, I hope so.He is the most popular character in the japanese SnK fandom so I pretty sure his face will sell a lot :p His face is all over Tumblr too. Haha, I know.I reblog a lot of his pics there :P symbv said: Nyah, that was fine, but I wish the giant is shown more clearly and more imposing, and more tension for Eren's jumping action.. I agree.I would have preferred a cover in which the colossal titan was more imposing as you said. I think he may get his own cover a little later depending on how far the series goes. |
GodlyKyon said: If it doesn't surpass SAO's first week vol 1, I will lose my faith in anime fans Really? Me, I will lose it if it sells more. |
Sairyuu69 said: GodlyKyon said: If it doesn't surpass SAO's first week vol 1, I will lose my faith in anime fans Really? Me, I will lose it if it sells more. It will sell much more. Feel free to move off of the planet if you can't take it anymore. |
| easily 50k copies. |
| 100000000000000 copies. OMG ALL THAT RAGE EP 7! AIDUJHSHXSHIHCSSCBSJ!!!!1111 |
| The Art of Eight |
| Isn't it lthe highest on the preorder rankings? I remember seeing it above Evangelion 3.33. |
VioLinkMay 18, 2013 11:29 AM
[center] |
| Pming, do you keep tabs on the OST pre-orders? Any not-really-surpirses there? Aw, will you also do the manga to anime adaptation track for episode 7? I can't find one of the scenes with the commander at the beginning and I think the narrative about the kyojins vs. humans was not that extended in the manga. :) |
| I haven't seen buzz for an anime like this in a long time and with the reaction it's getting in Japan, I'd say it's now in the territory where big numbers are possible especially if it continues as strongly as it has been I can see it shifting 60-70k. |
| The big ZERO, no sells... Jk nah idk , but i'm sure it's going to be pretty high. |
Please learn about cel animation and its technical process. Learn how special effects and backlighting were done without computers. |
pming said: You're fast!! Okay, the link looks like the Linked Horizon Single of SnK OP, I was wondering about the OST release in end of June. Dat Jean story ... Ma, ii, the story will shift to other stuff, so better have his saying here. Yay for the anime-packed episode (though following the manga). |
 source 4chan http://boards.4chan.org/a/res/85981776 dont ask me where the OP took all the info. -20000-30000: Durarara and Fullmetal Alchemist: Brotherhood started out in this area but tapered off later on. This area is ambiguous in the sense that the only anime that consistently stay in this area over every volume are heavily otaku supported. Still, some of the most popular anime sales around here. Toaru Kagaku no Railgun, Azumanga Daioh, and Fate/stay night are the only anime I can think of that consistently sold in this range. |
AnthonyNLMay 21, 2013 7:46 AM
| Lol I'm not surprised that Gargantia is beating Vavlrave. |
Please learn about cel animation and its technical process. Learn how special effects and backlighting were done without computers. |
AnthonyNL said: source 4chan |
 |
AnthonyNL said: source 4chan http://boards.4chan.org/a/res/85981776 dont ask me where the OP took all the info Didn't think Karneval would do that great. |
 |
| Those numbers are just the estimated units preordered so far in general (i.e. not limited to Amazon but everywhere) according to the Amazon Stalker. One thing to note is that for series with later release date, the number of "preordered units" would have more time to go up while series that go for sales early (like Karneval) would not have much time for that number to go up. Since the release date of various titles can be off by as much as two months, the actual final performance of the shows could be quite different from what this pic shows. |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
el_putazo said: im surprised valvrave has this many buyers lolLol I'm not surprised that Gargantia is beating Vavlrave. |
 |
AnthonyNL said: source 4chan http://boards.4chan.org/a/res/85981776 dont ask me where the OP took all the info. -20000-30000: Durarara and Fullmetal Alchemist: Brotherhood started out in this area but tapered off later on. This area is ambiguous in the sense that the only anime that consistently stay in this area over every volume are heavily otaku supported. Still, some of the most popular anime sales around here. Toaru Kagaku no Railgun, Azumanga Daioh, and Fate/stay night are the only anime I can think of that consistently sold in this range. Please don't mix up two different things. What you see in the picture are stalker points. Those do not equal sold volumes(which are referenced in the quote below). It only indicates the interest in the volumes on amazon.co.jp and some other shop and can differ very much from the final sales in the end(my favourite example of the last season: Tamako Market had about 600 points(a bit more than Aku no Hana now)but in the end, BD #1 sold more than 3000 volumes) |
| In 9/10 cases, the worst thing about an anime is its fandom. |
| I read somewhere over 100k for Titan. GODDAMN |
PoeticJustice said: I read somewhere over 100k for Titan. GODDAMN The estimated stalker points of all SnK releases were estimated at 107k points when i checked last(i've read, that they have up to 132k once). That's quite a lot. Well, Volume one is the most ordered anime in japan by now(even higher than Eva 3.33!), volume two already entered top ten and the rest is in top30. It does not mean, that it will sell over 100k numbers per volume, but i've read a lot of estimates saying, it will end between 40k and Madoka-level(around 75k. Those are numbers reserved for gundam and shaft^^) |
| In 9/10 cases, the worst thing about an anime is its fandom. |
AnthonyNL said: yeah, I didnt see the point thing, just thought it was the sale. But whatever, just hope it will be enough for development of 2nd season ( if we have) so the 1st BD thing, it will contain how many ep? Dont tell me only the 1st one? I think it's already confirmed as a 2 cour so you will get your 2nd season. This show throws so many curve balls at you though it's hard to say how people will react. The manga readers will enjoy it at least if it stays faithful. *EDIT* Don't quote me but I think it's like 2-3 episodes a BD |
ReasonDesuMay 21, 2013 4:26 PM
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