The Disappearance of Nagato Yuki-chan
| As I said yesterday, this series is doing very well in Japan, based on the number of people pre-ordering Blu-rays and DVDs through Amazon. However, I have a suspicion that these pre-order numbers might drop sharply once viewers in Japan see Episode 2 and perceive the numerous flaws. So I want to establish a baseline right now. Then, perhaps a week or two from now, let's see if the sales forecasts (called "Amazon Stalker points") went down or not. Briefly, "Amazon Stalker points" are a mathematical prediction of the number of sales, in actual units, during the first week after the Blu-ray/DVD go on sale on Amazon. This includes sales through Amazon.co.jp only. Some of you are more familiar with "total sales", which has no time limit. So keep in mind that these numbers only apply to the first week. At this moment, these "Amazon Stalker points" are highly uncertain since only a week has passed since the series started. They will become much more reliable once we approach the actual date that the Blu-ray/DVD goes on sale. In the meantime, they provide a rough gauge of the popularity of a given series among Japanese viewers. Here are the Amazon Stalker numbers as of this moment, at 11:30 pm Tokyo time, Friday, April 10th. Episode 2 airs in Tokyo two hours from now. Volume 1 06/26 BRDWK = 2176, BRDRE = 1846, DVDRE = 323, DVDWK = 300 Volume 2 07/31 BRDWK = 2129, BRDRE = 1779, DVDRE = 302, DVDWK = 328 Volume 3 08/28 ... Volume 4 ... ... The ... means that I got lazy and did not collect all of the information. Sorry. BRDRE = Blu-ray disk regular edition BRDWK = Blu-ray disk with key (複製原画) DVDRE = DVD regular edition DVDWK = DVD with "key" (複製原画) A lot of people on MAL have experience and specialized knowledge about how to analyze "Amazon Stalker points" and combine them with other sources of data. So I will be happy if some of you can contribute your thoughts. For the moment, I will put forward my non-expert opinion that 2176 + 1846 + 323 + 300 = 4645 looks really good to me. The top anime series (for example Sword Art Online and Free!) will often get around 10000 Amazon Stalker points or sometimes higher. Middle-of-the-pack series will get around 2000 to 3000. Below 1000 is failure. As an example, Yurikuma Arashi finished with something like 900 Amazon Stalker points. That was a disaster. (Rest in peace Yuri genre.) However, I seem to recall that Shirobako ended up with something like 8000 points. I was following it closely throughout the weeks it was airing. That was wonderful. So for this series to have 4645 looks like great news to me! Let's see if it lasts. There are some reasons to be cautious when analyzing Amazon Stalker points: 1. They only predict first-week sales. In some cases, a Blu-ray will sell well for the first week but then sales will drop to zero after that. That means that "total sales" are very poor. So that's no good. From a business point of view, "total sales" are what is important. But we can't play the fun "horse race" of watching "total sales" until an anime series has been long finished. 2. In some cases, the Blu-ray and DVD are deeply discounted in price since it looks like a series is a failure. In that case, Amazon Stalker points may be high, but the studio won't make any money from sales if they are selling their Blu-rays/DVDs for less than the production cost. 3. The mathematical forecasting model has some weird features that sometimes bias it in strange ways. So don't take the numbers too seriously. 4. There are two kinds of Amazon Stalker points. The proper one to look up and quote are "final forecast of cumulative points" (最終予測累積ポイント). The other one is "present cumulative points" (最新累積ポイン). Nobody really cares about 最新累積ポイン, but this number is of interest if you want to understand the mathematical details of their forecasting algorithm. Bottom line: Just use the 最終予測累積ポイント. 5. They don't include sales through other vendors besides Amazon. Some people say that the fraction of sales through Amazon depends a lot on the genre of the series. 6. The real measure of success or failure of a given anime series is whether they make money, period. It's business, so it depends on a lot of things. Here are the two links that you will need if you want to learn to do your own Amazon Stalker sales analysis: https://bakalaureate.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/guest-post-anime-and-sales-analysis-by-yuyucow/ http://www27392u.sakura.ne.jp/index2.cgi?sort=rankup ( That second website is in Japanese, so you will need somebody who can read Japanese well to look over your shoulder the first time you use it. ) |
| Who cares? Anime exist to promote Haruhi pachinko. |
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| I hope this fanfic rots in hell. |
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| bastek66 said: Who cares? Anime exist to promote Haruhi pachinko. Thank you for setting me straight! . :)  . . A Pachinko machinehttp://www.pachinko-play.com/cn/machine/machineimg/images/sank1020.jpg robis798 said: I hope this fanfic rots in hell. LOL ! |
| To see how this series is doing in Japan today, I checked the "Amazon Stalker points" just now. Here they are: Volume 1 06/26 BRDWK 1456 BRDRE 1542 DVDRE 463 DVDWK 193 Volume 2 07/31 BRDWK 1474 BRDRE 1444 DVDRE 464 DVDWK 206 Volume 3 08/28 ... Volume 4 09/25 ... Volume 5 10/30 ... Volume 6 11/27 ... BRDWK = Blu-ray disk, with anime key included BRDRE = Blu-ray disk, regular edition DVDWK = DVD, with anime key included DVDRE = DVD, regular edition - - - - - - - - - - Compared to April 10th, they have dropped by 21%. However, this series is still respectably popular in Japan. |
| They might go back up after episode 3- way better than the pile of shit before. Kyo-ani make haruhi season 3 for gods sake and Tanigawa get writing!! |
 Anime is good, fucking deal with it. |
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