Basic Mafia v4: Haruhi Suzumiya Mafia | Game Over - Mafia and Third Party Win

PentaFlare said:

Lucian is always a little confusing, but there is definitely method in the madness. It is more important in his case to determine if it is scum method or town method because the madness will be there either way.

Grapefruit21 said:
@LucianRoy You're right that we can't assume everyone who didn't jump off the Bursama wagon is scum, that was just a mess all around and I don't want to read too much into how the end went down. The early part yeah and I'm looking back at who seemed the most opportunistic jumping onto it and Logic jumps out at me.

Also can you give me anything on the Gruff v Kit argument that dominated today since it was about you. Straight up loaded question: do you think Gruff is trying to pocket you?

Kit said:
I really don't think that post you linked is that illuminating into Lucian's thought process or why 40 should have been saved. Lucian even admitted that he "guessed right" and it was "dumb luck" so he really did not have a town read on 40. Scum don't need real reasons to town read because they know who is town. And I have no idea where he pulled the 2-week-meta out from. here is where he first brings it up but the post he quoted doesn't really hint that 40 is from a 2-week meta, unless Lucian personally knows 40 better than the rest of us.

He also doesn't explain why "The reasons people were pushing him looked less and less shiny when put in ... the perspective of somebody experienced with the entire 2-week phases meta"
And he doesn't explain why that made 40 town.

He dismisses his own protection of 40 like it wasn't that important so people don't look at it too closely. He never explains why he thought 40 was town (while Logic did a great job explaining). He even showed suspicion of 40 throughout the day.

Also I still don't understand why 40's responses to me were "clinical" when they sounded fueled with emotion to me. 40 sounded incredulous that I would accuse him of being mafia, which in hindsight actually seems a bit more townie than being "clinical"

This has no mention of town reading. Like I said, even as scum he could be unused to the short days so it's not a free pass.

and then he posts this just to push the fact that he "knew" 40 would flip town.

I'd say your little exercise has made me feel even worse about Lucian, honestly :/

At the time, I liked where he was going with Sithis, but now I'm not so sure, because I'm starting to feel more town from Sithis.

Gruffin said:
@LucianRoy What do you think of Kit's suspicion of you?

Kit said:
You're my top town read since Soren died. I'd be happy to be included in your town block but I know some people suspect me so it's understandable if I'm not included

Kit said:
1 .Ok, why would scum do the things Lucian was doing: because 40 was obviously going to get lynched whether he tried to save him or not, so he tried to save him to look good. Why would town do those things: idk the weakest attempt EVER at trying to save someone who he thought was town. He didn't try to get anyone off the vote. If I give him the benefit of the doubt, he simply didn't have a good read on 40.
I'm not just looking at details, I'm looking motivation.

Grapefruit21 said:

@LucianRoy The thing is even at the time you were given town credit for trying to dig into alternative lynches and not just lynch the afk who no one had a strong read on. Not for defending x40 as much as trying to see if there were more fruitful trees.

So looking at motivations from town POV you have trying to stop a mediocre lynch and get after a better one. Problem is you didn't really back that up with actions.

So why make any sort of show of moving your vote and calling it a bad lynch in the first place if you aren't going to fight harder to save x40. And in your own words you didn't fight for him very hard. Isn't adding up to me.

From a scum POV you jump off a mislynch that is likely happening anyway and try to earn some town cred by reminding everyone that this lynch is being pursued with a collective "meh" and we can do better and earn some minor town points for doing so. Scum you doesn't care about the alternative wagon at all and that is what your actions indicated, that you couldn't care less if x40 ate the lynch.

Is it a strong read? No. Is it something to pursue when most everything else is shot to hell? Yup.

And one more thought regarding Logic, I don't like the way he's been obsessed with reassuring everyone he's town and making sure people are still town reading him. Town doesn't care that much what people think of their alignment. Just a lot of under the radar fishiness going on.

Catching up, expect a long post with my thoughts and my role. However, if anything, I'm overzealous town, but that's what mafia would say anyway. So yeah, catching up, shower then I'll go ham on my braincells.

So it's a bad thing to post scumreads?

I'm sure someone said it before some other game.. scum like to put shade at the end of a useful post. the more assorted they are in an entire post, the more they're trying to neutralize it.

I was getting frustrated with the fact that everyone was focused on Bursama. I wanted to look at my other suspects like Gruffin too.. Obviously forcing the flip on bursama wasn't the way to do it because that kills the very discussion time I wanted, but I was tempted by the idea of shutting down the discussion on bursama anyway. My better judgement held me back and that is why I later stated intention to hammer instead of actually hammering. I still wanted full time for discussion.

Also, I'm still a little frustrated that I put so much effort in writing this post about Gruffin and the other people who listed Gruffin as a suspect of theirs haven't commented on it. Does everyone just agree with my conclusion? That's the impression I'm getting if nobody else thinks the topic needs more discussion.

logic340 said:
One wall text later I am still neutral with a scum lean.

Also, I've been working on my read of Lucian too. It'll be posted at some point during D3, and I'd like to hear comments on it from those who suspect him.

PentaFlare said:
So this is going to be more of a post by post analysis than a cohesive read, but I'll try to tie it all back together at the end.

Post #102
This is Gruffin's first real post of the game. Right off the bat it seems to be analysis of players which is good but this post doesn't sit right with me. I'm seeing a lot of comments that would imply a scumread that seem to be selective reading (unjustified, scummy). For example, she says I seem to have an "odd focus" on Mishu. The mention of this being odd implies that it doesn't seem natural. Natural is townlike behaviour, odd is scummy. The problem is that I have also made comments on other players and have been working with Soren and Lucian on the second page. I don't see how someone would see me as fixated on Mishu unless they were focusing on only those posts. This is scummy. The same can be said for the comment that Lucian is fixated on Soren seeing as Lucian has also made comments to logic, grapefruit, and Mishu.
This seems like a scummy entrance to me. I can see where some of the suspicions that appear later stemmed from.

The rest of page 3
Gruffin pursues her vote on logic asking for reads and criticizing the lack of scumreads saying that logic is taking the easy way out. This part sits more as a town motive to me.

After this Gruff continues to have consistent play. Most of their posts are analysis of players and no more suggestions of scumminess that aren't justified with support and that are excluding things. She also continues to pressure people to take stands on who they think is scum and place votes. Despite knowing she is suspicious to some she isn't afraid to push ahead trying to hear scumreads from more people. This is not the approach of someone trying to protect themself but of someone trying to solve the game.

(I'm aware I've stopped making this a post by post but I don't really care. Everything seems to flow so well that I don't need to chop it up and analyze each post.)
^That's also another point that seems townie about Gruffin, their posts follow a logical thought process that continues to develop as the game goes on. I'm not going to count this as a strong point because this is why I townread Chione last game and was wrong, but on top of the other townie things Gruffin is doing this reinforces my good impression at this point in the game.

Post #528
This is Gruffin's explanation for her vote on Sonata. I don't like this post all that much because it seems forced. Yes, Phraze joined Gruffin on that train and switched off without saying what they gained from the Sonata vote, but that just seems to be stating something that happened. For a more fleshed out idea of what can be learned from Phraze I would expect some mention of the circumstances of Phraze's vote on Lord_Sithis. This seems more like Gruffin wanted to have something to say for the vote on Sonata. Their current case on Phraze is more supported than what they have said here though so overall I am fine with it. Gruffin did end up looking into Phraze in more detail. Considering the other more townlike things Gruffin has done, I'm willing to let a forced post go because even town can force things unknowingly if they think they are on to something. The fact that Gruffin substantiated the read more makes it sit comfortably with me.

So one wall of text later I'm definitely leaning towards a townread on Gruffin. Looking at everything she has said on its own shows a clear focus on pushing other people to pressure scum and a logical progression on her reads regarding other players, which focuses on analysis with concrete examples. The only points I still see as scummy are the forced post about the Sonata vote and her early comments which seem to exclude some things, but these aren't as strong tells as the clear town motivation I'm seeing.

LucianRoy said:
I guess I gave kind of an alternative. My vote was really last-minute though. Didn't think anyone would actually follow me, and they didn't ofc. Where is Sith btw? Haven't read a post of substance from them in a while, on page 23 btw.

I voted somebody who wasn't 40, does that count as an action?


How am I supposed to care about a player who was practically inactive for a good majority of the phase? I'm not Jesus swooping in to save 40 from a ML when I can't even get a solid read on the guy and go off gut feel instead.

Do you think that Sonata is either overzealous town or sacrificial scum?

I'm going to try and form a town block tonight. I'd like to know where people stand on me right now?

@Phraze I'm very interested in hearing your thoughts on the Kit/Gruffin situations. What are your thoughts on Sonata?

Who out of us here isn't providing clarity on their actions? Who's actions are causing confusion and discord among us? I think once we find and question these people, we'll have a better time figuring out who the scum are through their motives. Because scum want confusion, and town wants clarity.

@Phraze has given reads multiple times, and when asked about explanations, she either dodges the question or doesn't give a clear reason.

I've been staring at the Votes for a while and lack of a scum flip makes it hard to get anything firm I have some thoughts from looking at it. @LucianRoy, @aa-dono, and @phraze have votes off in no where land. This is sometimes a light scum tell, hard to use it this time because of the quick hammer but all three were posting while it was going down so they were relative degrees of up to date with current events. The lack of a counter wagon makes it weak, but it is a pattern.

Grapefruit21 said:
@phraze are you still around? Can you solve the game for me please? I'm stumped.

Phraze said:
@Gruffin
Sonata, Lucian, Gruffin and the ded ppl

logic340 said:
Town:Logic340
Potential Town:Soren, Grapefruit, LucianRoy
Neutral leaning town: PentaFlare, Phraze, Sonata, Mishukax, Sithis
Neutral: Bursama, _0x40_, Kit, Sonata
Not enough info: aa-dono
Potential scum: Gruffin, rosielovesanime

I need a max of 2 full phases(4 deaths) to make a conclusion. 1 full phase(2 deaths) to create a lead.

logic340 said:

@Phraze what do you think about Grapefruit's case against me? Is there any substance to it?

Grapefruit21 said:


See this is what I mean why do you care so much that everyone thinks you are town.

Phraze said:
lynches: x40, Bursama [passive aka easy-to-die-off players]
nightkills: Mish, Soren [reserved aka confusing players]
[even the deaths look pro town.... lol]

Grapefruit and Logic seem to be on the same wavelength aka alignment. Grapefruit comes off as town to me, so Logic should be town. I've also mentioned before that Logic would be hella nervous for his first scumgame. by association, Lucian should be town for agreeing with that. combined with some of his seemingly pro town strategy.
[townreads for Grapefruit/Logic/Lucian via association]

Gruffin: claimed new playstyle, but it seems more anti town than her old one.
Kit: under radar. but she would be nervous for her first scumgame, similar vein to Logic. she approached Gruffin confidently, so it's a big town tell. [newb!scum won't do so]
Phraze: well.... I'll just let ppl read off me and my interactions~
Rosie: new to the game. pretty direct so far. another not-newb!scum tell.
Dono(now Denja): been more active D3, but emotional. rep'd out
Sithis: been feeling scum neutral from them since D1, hasn't improved at all.
Sonata: getting townreads for doing something so obviously scummy. could be staged.
Penta: not likeing their interaction with Dono. it looks fluffy suspicious. staged?

interesting interactions:
Dono vs Penta ~ fluff talk
Penta vs Sonata ~ D2 lynch hammer
Gruffin vs Logic ~ playstyle
Gruffin vs Kit ~ what was this about?

suspects:
Gruffin/Sonata
+ Dono or Penta whichever fits from their interaction
+ I like Sithis in PoE so adding him in
+ Sonata/Penta/Gruffin? thoughts?

@Phraze what do you think about Grapefruit's case against me? Is there any substance to it?

This is me pecking Phraze's brain especially since she had that crazy read on you earlier.

See this is what I mean why do you care so much that everyone thinks you are town.

Phraze said:
/posted wall to see 8 posts on refresh/

@logic340
I think it's null. posted my reads and ur both on same alignment in my eyes. u scumread each other for similar things. kinda similar to Gruffin scumreading ur playstyle, but she laid it off quickly. u and Grapefruit have been clashing throughout the game, so it's more of similar alignment to me.
what was the crazy read? hmmm was it the one about being evasive? yeah I find it to be very anti town, but some clarification helped.

@Grapefruit21
Logic's like this every game. deal with it. I played with him in 4(I think) games and he's always announcing that he's town. his scumgame will fall too easily lol

With scum having a two person advantage and everyone chilling on Bursama what is the motive for them to have Sonata and Pents make such a risky play? I can see either Penta or Sonata as scum but not both, they could also both be town.

@Phraze "Kit: under radar. but she would be nervous for her first scumgame, similar vein to Logic. she approached Gruffin confidently, so it's a big town tell. [newb!scum won't do so]" This is quite the assumption. I have felt off about Kit's game thus far. If I an speaking candidly about the way I feel about Kit/Gruffin then I would say Gruffin feel s more like CCL but Kit doesn't feel like Kit from other fames. NNT we argued hard over Soren and grrr, and I walked away feeling townie and wavering. I haven't gotten that this game. I would say that Gruffin and I both admittedly tried to change our styles but old habits die hard and we look and feel more similar to our other games. Kit hasn't felt that way to me he hasn't been actively trying to change his behavior but I get that feeling from him. Kit/Gruffin is hard to figure out this game I have never seen them go at it before so I do think that one is scum and the other is town. I side more with Gruffin's points on Lucian but I have been more suspicious of her this game, I'm so conflicted.

LucianRoy said:

What does Sonata owe you? What does Sonata owe any of us? An apology? He already gave that.

Reads would be nice though.

logic340 said:
It sucks being universally town read. I will probably be NK'd this night so I am trying to put as much work in as possible before then.

Is there anyone you feel deserves a pressure vote? Is there a reason you are abstaining right now?

Lord_Sithis said:
So, school starts again today. That means I'll probably be inactive for some hours, but when I get back I'll try to catch up as soon as possible. Sucks, fuck school.

Phraze said:
Vote: DenjaX

time to see what we get from my scumlean

Phraze said:
Vote: DenjaX

time to see what we get from my scumlean

Lord_Sithis said:
Yeah, I am aware and it's my fault tbh. My strongest town read are you. Sonata is neutral leaning town. Pretty much everyone else is neutral. I have to catch up a lot from D2 too, but I'll be sure to post a lot when I get home.
Edit: Phraze leaning scum.

logic340 said:
So you have a scum lean on aa? How do you expect DenjaX to defend against what aa did?