Japan's Weekly Blu-ray & CD Rankings for Jun 17 - 23

Ejc said:

72　--　**,346　***,346　*1　Crime Edge 1

ThangLong said:

Oh, now that you mentioned it, I did not notice that Arata did not even rank. In fact, the anime slips through my radar this entire time. It looks quite nice, how comes?

Kaioshin_Sama said:
I'm kind of curious if anyone has confirmed what cause the massive spike in OreGairu preorders on Amazon. I know the last episode was pretty popular, but the spike only seemed to happen on release date which contradicts everything I thought I understood about these things since that's usually when orders start to go down isn't it?

Can anyone confirm if it was just a shortage leading people to rush to Amazon to make the order thus driving up it's rank.

Ejc said:
The most likely explanation symbv and I came up with, was that OreGairu managed to attract casual buyers who wanted to buy v1 at stores but found out it was gone from the shelves.

symbv said:
Only 2 out of the 20 BDs in the daily chart are non-anime !!!

symbv said:
Now I notice I made a critical mistake in my Stalker analysis for Date A Live in my earlier writing. I said the final estimate of Date A Live as 5.2k but I forgot in Amazon there are two versions of the BD: the Amazon "limited editon" and the standard "limited edition" and I counted only the former. Take the standard edition into account as well (with estimate of 1.6) the actual total of Stalker estimate of BD/DVD for Date A Live is 6.8k -- this makes its position in today's chart more understandable.

symbv said:
Now I notice there may be another victim of large scale troll orders....

Where is Samurai Bride vol.1 ???

The stalker estimate totals 2.3k and it was released on 26th, but where is it in the rankings???

symbv said:
^ The reason why I suspect something fishy is because in terms of BD stalker points, Photokano is very close to Samurai Bride - 1.8k vs 1.7k, and both are even similar in its type of appeal - both have fan service galore from a big cast of girls, and yet here we see Photokano at #14 today while Samurai Bride is nowhere to be seen for all the 3 days it has been out.. Hmmm...

Ejc said:
Yes, but they are both on different release days. I don't think we can compare Sumarai Bride and Photokano directly. It may just be that the BD ranking threshold for the Top 20 on June 27 is a lot lower than it was on June 25 for the June 26 releases. Most of Sumarai Bride's sales would've been on June 25 & 26 I suspect.

symbv said:
I hope you are right. You sound as optimistic as when we talked about Crime Edge. It did not turn out well last time, but I surely hope you are right this time.

*** **1 **1 **5 **3 *** *** | -- | UtaPri 2000% 1
*** *** *** **4 **5 *** *** | -- | Date A Live 1
*** **8 **9 *11 **8 *** *** | -- | OreGairu. 1
*** *** *** **7 *10 *** *** | -- | Haiyore! Nyaruko-san W 2
*** *10 **7 *19 *16 *** *** | -- | Valvrave 1
*** *16 *16 *** *18 *** *** | -- | Namiuchugiwa no Muromi-san 1
*** *** *** *14 *** *** *** | -- | Photokano 1
*** *** *** *16 *** *** *** | -- | Red Data Girl 1
*** *17 *12 *** *** *** *** | -- | HenNeko. 1

symbv said:
I fear for HenNeko...

Ejc said:
Yeah, doesn't HenNeko. have 2 versions of the BD? I didn't see the ranking picture on those days that HenNeko. ranked... so I have no idea if it was reported as one to Oricon. 1.3k and 5.4k on Stalker for the different versions.

Ejc said:

EDIT: Maybe it's the special one that ranked. It'd make sense according to the Stalker points, as it has Valvrave above it (5.9k vs 5.4k). It now makes it seem like HenNeko. was overestimated based on the daily ranks.

symbv said:
Since it is not a shop-specific edition like Amazon edition (or Gamers / Animate edition) but separate editions to be sold by all retailers, they will be counted separately in Oricon I suppose. However, just the special edition (which includes the sheet) has 5.4k in Stalker estimate (the standard BD has 1.3k) which does not fit well with the Oricon Daily Rankings result so far.

symbv said:
It has to be the special one, but Valvrave ranks in 4 days while HenNeko ranked only in 2 days, even though their estimates do not differ by that much.

symbv said:
I notice that I also omitted to count the standard edition of BD for HenNeko in my Stalker estimate analysis. Oops!!

Now with all the editions considered for Date A Live and HenNeko, the final Stalker estimates for the two works are:

HenNeko *****5.4+1.3+0.3=8.0k
Date A Live ***** 4.2+1.7+0.9=6.8k

No prize for guessing right which one will end up selling more this week LOL

Ejc said:
Will you be doing another analysis for the other Spring 2013 titles that haven't been released yet?

Ejc said:
I'm very interested in what 2ch will predict as the Top 4 for Summer and their averages/medians in probably a week or so. I remember the Spring predictions was up in early April.

symbv said:
Don't think so, since most of the titles have already come out. What remain are just the following:

Hatarakou Maou-sama! [BD+DVD]: 2013/07/03
Shingeki no Kyojin [BD+DVD]: 2013/07/17
Toaru Kagaku no Railgun S [BD+DVD]: 2013/07/24
Zettai Bouei Leviathan [BD+DVD]:2013/07/24
Aku no Hana [BD+DVD]: 2013/07/26
Mushibugyou [BD+DVD]: 2013/07/26
Aiura [BD]: 2013/08/07
Suisei no Gargantia [BD Box]: 2013/08/28

symbv said:
Let me know if you later see the data. I remember spending quite a bit of time looking for the Spring predictions because it did not come out at the time I expected (a week or two after the end of the poll). We know Monogatari, Dangan Ronpa and Free are widely tipped to be among the Top Four but it would be nice to have some numbers to back it up.

Ejc said:
I haven't checked on 2ch lately, but have they started polling on people's responses yet, or have a google doc up?

symbv said:
Been watching 2ch Sales thread in the past few days, no mention of poll yet...

symbv said:
OMAKE:

Love the cover for ViviPan v4 ;-)

From 2ch Sales Thread:

Higashi_no_Kaze said:
What are the predictions for the Mushibugyo sales that are coming up soon?

Higashi_no_Kaze said:
And do they even matter or is it aired in a more rating-orientated airing slot?

hpulley said:
BTW, symbv, not sure if you're watching the Da Capo III threads anymore but they fixed the goof at the end of episode 7 with two Lulu-nees... The extra one in the line-up of 4 is gone, just a line-up of 3 now. Beautiful, simply beautiful work in this one and episode 8 is as you would expect... wow! Too bad it doesn't sell well, hopefully the game sales make up for it.

symbv said:
0.4k BD 0.7k DVD = 1.1k Its ranking jumped up when an event ticket was announced but then it just came down again...

It is indeed aired in evening - Monday 6pm but 2ch sales thread people include it for consideration since it is 1) it is in the same time slot as Gintama 2) it seems to get quite a bit of attention by midnight anime watching otaku (not all shounen stuff is like that).

hpulley said:
UtaPri 2000%, seems the 2000% was meant to indicate the sales over the first season, wow! Beating SAO 9 every day on BD and demolishing it on DVD, what could the total be?

Edrahil said:
I thought, Animes are produced by a studio, but what do they gain from a boost to the Manga/LN, which are (atleast I think that teye are) published by a different corporation?

symbv said:
Let's go over how the business model works. In the case of midnight anime (not the shounen anime like Bleach or shoujo anime like PreCure) an anime is made by a studio but produced by a production committee which funds the whole project. The members of the committee may have the studio and even the TV station which broadcast the anime, but the main players in the committee would consist of a media company like Aniplex or Bandai, which will be responsible for marketing and actual manufacturing/distribution of the discs, merchandise/game/figure sponsor like FujiRoad, and then for an adaptation work, the LN/manga/game publisher.

Depending on how much in proportion each member chips in and the initial agreement, each member will stand to profit or take loss from the project together - and in the case of adaptation, because the initiative comes from the publisher (we know that it is the publisher who decides which work gets adapted to anime and which studio gets to do the work) we could expect that they may chip in more than other parties, and they would hope to recoup the higher share of cost sharing by increased sales of the source material.

For the anime studio, they usually get a budget to work on the anime, and one would expect they would split the profit of disc sales with the production company as well (in particular if the studio is part of the production committee). As for merchandise sales I think it depends on the initial agreement. For the manga/LN sale, the money may go only to the publisher, but they probably are the party which chipped in the most anyway - in fact quite a number of anime adaptations may even be meant not to make profit but as a marketing tool for the manga/LN/game.

So when we say 'profitable even though the anime did not sell well' we are not looking at the studio, but from the point of view of the production committee, which is the group that actually funds the anime project, and its revenue would come from a number of sources: sales of original source material, sale of BD/DVD, sale of all kinds of merchandise/figure as well as spin-off projects like extra manga/novel or new games etc.

ultimatemegax said:
The only times where the publisher "chips in" the most money is from the Kadokawa and Media Factory production committees. Usually, you'll see some other company (Aniplex/Bandai) take the top spot, and then there's instances where the production committee takes a back spot to the station in the case of TBS-produced shows. Look at the order of the production committee since that'll tell you who chipped in the most money.

ultimatemegax said:
So to clarify: when it's said that an anime is profitable taking into account lower than average disc sales, look at who's on the committee and if they're getting a boost from some other sort of media. For Bandai shows, merchandise may be the big seller. For Kadokawa/Media Factory, it's LN/manga sales. For TBS shows, look at ratings and semi-disc sales. For Aniplex, it's solely disc sales.

ultimatemegax said:
Nichijou is commonly thrown around as a failure due to ~2k sales, but it sold 1 million copies in 2011, started a magazine that Kadokawa's still publishing, had its rights sold to NHK for broadcasting, selling a lot of merchandise, etc. At this point, we can't say that it's a failure based off of those poor disc sales, yet people still state it's a bomb.