| Releases for next week - www.bit.ly/1o2Pd79 Estimates for Spring 2014 anime(Updated 06/02) - www.bit.ly/U7Z3r8 v2 drops for Spring 2014 anime(Updated 06/09) - www.bit.ly/UoEbMn Estimates for OVAs & Release dates(Updated 03/15) - link Estimates for Movies & Release dates(Updated 04/14) - link Estimates for BD-box/re-releases(Updated 03/13) - link |
rederoinJun 30, 2014 12:48 PM
Written on 20 May ____________________________________________________________________ All of this is based on the current trends on Amazon Japan, Love Live! 2nd season v1 is having an amazing performance with its estimate of 71.6k(down from 95k from a few days ago). It'll have a rather big event ticket drop, but if its underestimated, it might just outsell Bakamono v4. Not that I would get your hopes up for it, its just a possibility. Haikyuu! & Selector infected Wixoss are both above 10k, but its not certain if they will reach a 10k average. Wixoss rises easier in the Amazon rankings becease its 2 times as expansive as normal volume(4 episodes). But its not listed as a box-set on stalker, so its kinda hard to know what its sales will be, for me atleast. Haikyuu!! Has a big event ticket drop, so it'll need a storefront effect(15%+) for it to average 10k. JoJo P3 is also still doing really good on Amazon, i'm still expecting 15/20k+ sales for this one. Sidonia no Kishi, Mushishi S2, No game No life and Gochuumon wa Usagi Desu ka? are within the 5-7k range. Mushishi S2 and Mahouka dropped in the amazon rankings, but Gochuumon wa Usagi Desu ka? has a rather nice boost. No Game No Life, Isshuukan Friends, Mekaku city actors and Kenzen Robo Daimidaler are all within the 3-5k range, No Game No Life and Isshuukan Friends got some nice boosts this week. Inugami-san to Nekoyama-san and Puchimass are doing decent for shorts. SoreDemo Is not up on Amazon Yet. Anything else not listed in this post will probably average less than 3k. ___________________________________________________________________ Written on 6 May ___________________________________________________________________ Love Live! has a rather big estimated event ticket drop(50%+), but it that should not stop it from becoming the top seller of Spring. No stalker data for JoJo P3 yet, but I think we can assume it'll reach 15k+ at worst, and maybe even 25k if part 3 really is as popular in Japan, as they say. Haikyuu!! has a good chance at 10k+, if it has the same storefront affect as KnB, 20k+/- for v1 and v2? and then it'll drop down a lot with v3? But who knows by how much? The estimated drop, just like Love Live is rather big(50%+). I mean sure, it has 2 volumes with event tickets, but it also has 9 volumes in total. Mushishi S2 has a decent chance at getting 10k, if you include w2+ and a slight underestimation or it getting a small sales boost. It has no event ticket, so I don't think we'll see a big drop. And that does for series that I think have a decent chance at reaching 10k or more. Mahouka and Sidonia are doing good, but we are talking about a 6-8k~ average, nothing huge. But still good. Gochuumon wa Usagi Desu ka? and Date A live II are also doing rather good, just not as good as the previous 2. 4-6k~ average, maybe? I'm ofcourse hoping for a higher average for Gochiusa. Ping Pong The Animation, Kenzen Robo Daimidaler, Mekaku City Actors, Isshuukan Friends, No Game No Life and Black bullet are doing decent(2k-4k~??). But these kind of sales are nothing special. Kamigami no Asobi has a big estimated v2 drop of more than 85%, so make sure to remember that when v1 comes out. Aside from(not on Amazon stalker yet), Mahou Shoujo Taisen Selector Infected WIXOSS Kiniro no Corda Blue♪Sky Baby steps Soredemo Sekai wa Utsukushii All of the series that I did not mention, excluding shorts, are performing horrible on Amazon. |
rederoinMay 19, 2014 5:17 PM
| http://rederoin.motionsforum.com/t230-2014-05-12-2014-05-19 Next weeks sales estimates are up. |
| http://rederoin.motionsforum.com/t231-volume-2-drops-v2 New edition of the volume 2 drops are now up. |
| Some of the biggest drops ever in the same season! |
rederoin said: I'm not sure I believe that yet. I still have to believe that v2 will beat the average of the lowest season 1 volumes... so I think it may have more storefront to surprise us and will end up underestimated. Will still drop but more like 50% than 80% I think.hpulley said: Some of the biggest drops ever in the same season! Ontop of that S2v1 of love live has a chance of becoming one of the best selling v1s. On the other hand, it'll probably have the biggest drop in # discs sold from v1 to v2. |
hpulley said: rederoin said: I'm not sure I believe that yet. I still have to believe that v2 will beat the average of the lowest season 1 volumes... so I think it may have more storefront to surprise us and will end up underestimated. Will still drop but more like 50% than 80% I think.hpulley said: Some of the biggest drops ever in the same season! Ontop of that S2v1 of love live has a chance of becoming one of the best selling v1s. On the other hand, it'll probably have the biggest drop in # discs sold from v1 to v2. Yeah, based on Season 1 numbers... Vol.7 was boosted by 41% from Vol.2, which was the highest selling volume excluding Vol.1 (which had only 1 episode on it). Vol.1 was boosted by 25% from Vol.2 due to it having only 1 episode and it being Vol.1. This will be different when the re-releases are out on May 28, since Vol.4 and Vol.5 were understocked. I think it'll be around 50~55% as hpulley said, since Vol.1 has only 1 episode on it. It's not as simple as adding the two boost percentages as the 1st season I would think, as being 1 episode and having an event ticket would coincide with some buyers. |
The News Club: Quality News/Discussion (anime, CDs, manga, novels, games, seiyuu), & sales data (daily, weekly, mid-year, yearly). |
rederoin said: Too much hype for Mekaku City Actors, just didn't live up to it.Mekaku city actors drops out of the top 600 on Amazon Japan, so much for all that hype. Funfact : Love Live is now estimated at 85.5k, it'll now drop, but its still nice to see. As Ejc has pointed out, LoveLive! actually had pre-order cutoffs last year too so I think I was wrong to say it would drop now. As long as it can still be ordered at Amazon I think it will keep going up. It is still available and likely will continue. Sorry I jumped to conclusions there. |
| **1位/**1位 ★ (***,**0 pt) [*,**0予約] 14/10/08 THE IDOLM@STER MOVIE 輝きの向こう側へ! 「シャイニーフェスタ」アニメBlu-ray同梱版(完全生産限定版) [Blu-ray] **2位/**2位 ★ (*37,812 pt) [*,275予約] 14/06/20 ラブライブ! 2nd Season 1 (特装限定版) [Blu-ray] **3位/**3位 ★ (***,**0 pt) [*,**0予約] 14/10/08 【Amazon.co.jp限定】THE IDOLM@STER MOVIE 輝きの向こう側へ！「シャイニーフェスタ」アニメBlu-ray同梱版(完全生産限定版)(オリジナルデカ缶バッチ付き) Total idol domination at Amazon. Love Live at 2#, idolmaster at 1# & 3# |
| Next weeks estimates. http://rederoin.motionsforum.com/t233-2014-05-20-2014-05-26 |
| I posted the new spring estimates on my site. ___________________________________ All of this is based on the current trends on Amazon Japan, Love Live! 2nd season v1 is having an amazing performance with its estimate of 71.6k(down from 95k from a few days ago). It'll have a rather big event ticket drop, but if its underestimated, it might just outsell Bakamono v4. Not that I would get your hopes up for it, its just a possibility. Haikyuu! & Selector infected Wixoss are both above 10k, but its not certain if they will reach a 10k average. Wixoss rises easier in the Amazon rankings becease its 2 times as expansive as normal volume(4 episodes). But its not listed as a box-set on stalker, so its kinda hard to know what its sales will be, for me atleast. Haikyuu!! Has a big event ticket drop, so it'll need a storefront effect(15%+) for it to average 10k. JoJo P3 is also still doing really good on Amazon, i'm still expecting 15/20k+ sales for this one. Sidonia no Kishi, Mushishi S2, No game No life and Gochuumon wa Usagi Desu ka? are within the 5-7k range. Mushishi S2 and Mahouka dropped in the amazon rankings, but Gochuumon wa Usagi Desu ka? has a rather nice boost. No Game No Life, Isshuukan Friends, Mekaku city actors and Kenzen Robo Daimidaler are all within the 3-5k range, No Game No Life and Isshuukan Friends got some nice boosts this week. Inugami-san to Nekoyama-san and Puchimass are doing decent for shorts. SoreDemo Is not up on Amazon Yet. Anything else not listed in this post will probably average less than 3k. |
| Jojo estimate is up! 26.5K unless I missed some editions. Won't give LoveLive!2 v1 a scare but later volumes? Who knows... But Sidonia is temporarily above Jojo v1 as it makes the final push to release day in a week and a half. I think 7 episodes for the first arc of Mahouka was just too long. The most recent episode probably would have been good... if it had been episode 3 or something. The novel readers would be angry about them skipping too much but apparently there are only around 5K novel readers who want to buy the Blurays. I think it is more important to appeal to new buyers but that's just me perhaps. One Week Friends OTOH has changed things up a lot and I think for the better. Gan Gan Joker stuff tends to do that, it seems in their adaptations. NGNL is a bit slow for my tastes, a bit too much detail on the games but it seems others are picking it up which is nice. Mahouka and Mekaku City Actors not being part of the top 4 are going to be a shock for a lot of people. Right now it looks like LoveLive!2 and Jojo2 will be the expected ones from the top 4 while WIXOSS could be a surprise, even Haikyuu!! while not a big surprise I think was probably not expected to be top 4. |
| ^Mahouka still has a chance at reaching the top 4. I think it'll be either be Sidonia, Mushishi S2 or Mahouka. Maybe Wixoss if it starts improving again. ***,268位/***,269位 ★ (**1,210 pt) [*,*34予約] 2014/08/27 「selector infected WIXOSS」BOX 1(WIXOSSスターターデッキ付) (初回限定版) [Blu-ray] Atleast it went back in the top 300 again. But Aside from Love Live and JoJo, spring is not looking that strong, unless haikyuu gets a storefront affect, we won't even get 3 10k+ sellers. |
| 1st will obviously be Love Live! 2nd, I am leaning towards Haikyuu!! as I think it'll have a modest storefront effect at Animate. 3rd will probably be JoJo, as I am not convinced it will hold up to last season numbers. Being longer though would give it a chance to improve, but no real episode boost more than a week after solicitation. 4th is still up in the air. Candidates I think for 4th is Sidonia, Gochiusa (if it can reach Non Non Biyori numbers), Mahouka (if people are still sitting on the fence... since the new and better arc than the 1st is starting on Sunday morning), and Mushishi. |
| The News Club: Quality News/Discussion (anime, CDs, manga, novels, games, seiyuu), & sales data (daily, weekly, mid-year, yearly). |
| New v2 estimated drops are out. www.bit.ly/1pbCbU0 |
| So unless there are some big storefront effects we are looking at just one 10K+ Average series in LoveLive!2 or two if Jojo 2 holds up. |
| >So unless Jojo2 holds up It will, from what i've heard, p3 is the most popular part. I don't see it selling below 15k. Haikyuu!! still only needs a minor storefront boost. It was 15% 2 weeks ago, now that it had a small boost(v1 & v2 went up by 1k, v3-9 went down 0.1k, a net-gain off 1.3k). I think it should be rougly the same. |
| Next weeks estimates Another week of domination for sunrise - www.bit.ly/1oY1OW6 |
| New Estimates. www.bit.ly/U7Z3r8 |
| I'm busy with wildstar, so i'll keep this short. I'll only address the series whose ranking have changed. Haikyuu!!. No Game No Life and Gochuisa had small boosts(all went up by roughly +10%(+20% for No Game No life)) . Gochiusa and No Game No Life have been consistently ranking in the top 100 for the last week. Mushishi dropped, buts that most likely because 2 episode got delayed which caused a lack of episode boosts. JoJo and Wixoss went down as expected(since they had just gone up when I posted the estimates last week), JoJo went down further than I expected, but Wixoss acteally did not have that big of a drop(compared to JoJo). |
| Next week's estimates. www.bit.ly/1o2Pd79 |
| www.bit.ly/UoEbMn New v2 drops, nothing really interesting. |
| www.bit.ly/1uuVIwT Next weeks estimates with Gochiusa, love live and one week friends. |
| www.bit.ly/1lB7K6W New spring estimates. _________________________________________________________________________________ Aside from Ping Pong the Animation rising about 33%, nothing really interesting happened with the new estimate. But a bunch of v1s are getting released next week. Love Live! is at top with a staggering 57k+(which is most likely underestimated). Gochiusa is a very far 2nd, buts it still doing rather good, with its estimate of 6.6k. One Week Friends also has a rather decent estimate of 4k+. Kanojo no Flag and Akuma no riddle have horrible estimates, but that was to be expected. |
rederoinJun 17, 2014 8:21 AM
| www.bit.ly/T1DmYm Next week's estimates. |
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