| If Suzaku was a informant (and realized the town didn't need to kill them to win, unlike me) they would have hard claimed informant immediately. There is no downside to it. Is Phraze the informant here... That actually explains everything. Otherwise her reaction makes no sense. |
| Okay so Phraze POV's. If Phraze is thief: she would 100% lock in on killing Suzaku. No downside. No reason for her not to take this line of play. If Phraze is informant: she knows my check is a thief check on Suzaku. Her only winning line is to force a lynch on dono. If Phraze is town: she's thinking that the 50/50 is the informant side and that makes dono a thief. If this were the case though I'd expect stronger language than "suzaku reads okay. Dono is sus." If we accept this as true then Phraze should be 100% locked in on dono being scum. Or 75% at least. Rather than vaguely pointing a finger. For dono If she's thief: then locking in 100% makes sense. She knows suzaku is the informant. If she's town: it makes sense too. If she's informant it makes 0 sense at all. She's throwing away her ability to lose the game. So that's the game solved. We lynch Suzaku. If they flip informant we lynch dono. Do we have enough decoys to do that? Math says no we don't. Barring character or role saves. I'd rather hit Suzaku because that reaction isn't one I'd expect the informant to have. They should just claim and go wet noodle and vote everone but themselves guilty and try to get a flip before the thief can kill them. |
| So I know Suzaku is 100% not town. Slightly better than 50% to win the game lynching them. Lynching Dono gives me probably slightly less than 50%. Lynching Phraze gives me % in the teens to single digits. |
The Suspect has been appointed. Town and the Suspect herself must vote whether they are guilty or innocent. SuzakuTsubasa was accused to be the Crescent Moon Thief ! Voting Phase has Started! @Phraze @SuzakuTsubasa @aa-dono @Grapefruit21 Timer until the End of Voting Phase |
| Vote: Guilty Going to be really annoying when Phraze is the informant and gets to play kingmaker with 0% chance to win. |
| vote: Guilty |
 |
Phraze said: We have to eliminate informant if there is one. Why do you say it's bad? eliminating informant is bad for us. Suzaku's reaction is understandable tbh (or he's informant). what made u say he isn't informant (probably for grape, since he have only 1 decoy left) It's a lot better to eliminate informant earlier than later anyway. |
|
aa-dono said: Phraze said: We have to eliminate informant if there is one. Why do you say it's bad? eliminating informant is bad for us. Suzaku's reaction is understandable tbh (or he's informant). what made u say he isn't informant (probably for grape, since he have only 1 decoy left) It's a lot better to eliminate informant earlier than later anyway. I'm not alone in reading wrong or you're being coy but the villagers don't have to eliminate the informant. What do you think of my analysis in 102. |
| Rip I made sure to read twice too. Haah~ I think Phraze have equal chances of being informant and town. I don't see anything weird about her being vague. I'm not sure if this comes from me reading it as her being Phraze, state of game, or because I'm too used to this. The only way to know if Phraze is informant or not is if she decides to lynch you next phase. Or me. As for the read on me~ I guess that makes sense. |
|
| Vote: Innocent |
  |
| Vote: innocent |
 |
Grapefruit21 said: Okay so Phraze POV's. If Phraze is thief: she would 100% lock in on killing Suzaku. No downside. No reason for her not to take this line of play. If Phraze is informant: she knows my check is a thief check on Suzaku. Her only winning line is to force a lynch on dono. If Phraze is town: she's thinking that the 50/50 is the informant side and that makes dono a thief. If this were the case though I'd expect stronger language than "suzaku reads okay. Dono is sus." If we accept this as true then Phraze should be 100% locked in on dono being scum. Or 75% at least. Rather than vaguely pointing a finger. For dono If she's thief: then locking in 100% makes sense. She knows suzaku is the informant. If she's town: it makes sense too. If she's informant it makes 0 sense at all. She's throwing away her ability to lose the game. So that's the game solved. We lynch Suzaku. If they flip informant we lynch dono. Do we have enough decoys to do that? Math says no we don't. Barring character or role saves. I'd rather hit Suzaku because that reaction isn't one I'd expect the informant to have. They should just claim and go wet noodle and vote everone but themselves guilty and try to get a flip before the thief can kill them. what makes u think I'm sure of anyone? voting guilty on informant doesn't flip them same as citizens unless decoy gone iirc. I don't see how informant would claim being one cuz it's insta-lose - thief hits them to remove decoy protections? ppl reading things wrong ehh I think alternative would've been voting guilty on everyone along with burglary, then it should clear all 3. bulldozing xD but... I'll take the long way this time~ |
|
| @Phraze if he is an informant we've already lost by nominating him. If dono is a thief we can't win. Voting innocent here is giving up. You are choosing a 0% chance to win over a 50% if you're town and siding with the thief over town if you're the informant. You have 0% to win if you are the informant here. If you are an informant at this stage of the game is stuck. If I finally understand the informant win condition correctly the thief can't afford to kill me because you win instantly and can't afford to kill you because town wins instantly. If I'm misunderstanding your win con and you don't win at 1/1/1 you are actually locked completely and just get to play kingmaker. |
| My above math is wrong but it requires town to vote for the informant to be reached. With perfect information the game is stuck and I'm choosing to try to take a 50/50 on Suzaku over seeing what happens if Duzaku is the informant. (Which for the record is gridlocked votes depending upon what happens at a 1/1/1 game state which I believe is a informant win) |
| Okay confirmed informant doesn't win at 1/1/1. So 0% to win for informant here. Does town have a chance to win if dono is the thief? D2 innocent N2 nothing D3 innocent because suzaku won't vote guilty... And back in the loop. |
| Turns out claiming was real real bad for everyone but the thief.. |
Grapefruit21 said: Not the thief so don't worry about this.Okay confirmed informant doesn't win at 1/1/1. So 0% to win for informant here. Does town have a chance to win if dono is the thief? D2 innocent N2 nothing D3 innocent because suzaku won't vote guilty... And back in the loop. @Phraze if you're town, please just vote guilty on Suzaku. If you're thief, it benefits you to have 1 decoy off Suzaku as well. If you're informant, Suzaku will have to kill you to win anyway. |
|
| Suzaku doing nothing makes me confident they are the thief. I think Phraze is the informant but Phraze if you're town please vote for Suzaku here. |
Final Vote Count: innocent - SuzakuTsubasa, Phraze guilty - Grapefruit21, aa-dono Town decided that SuzakuTsubasa is innocent. SuzakuTsubasa won't lose their Decoy this Phase!  It is night time... The moon appears to be a Full Moon. You're all sleeping... Night Phase 2 has Started! (No Discussions are allowed during the Night Phase) PM me with your actions if any. @Phraze @SuzakuTsubasa @aa-dono @Grapefruit21 Timer until the End of Night Phase 2 |
Phraze - has 1 Decoy SuzakuTsubasa - has 1 Decoy aa-dono - has 1 Decoy Grapefruit21 - has 0 Decoy Town has gathered once again to find information about the thief and appointed a new Leader for today. Phraze has been appointed to be the Leader for this Phase! Discussion Phase has Started! @Phraze @SuzakuTsubasa @aa-dono @Grapefruit21 Timer until the End of Discussion Phase |
| I realized that the game is too slow with 24 hours for each phase. The original game had at least 3 minutes per discussion phase and voting was pretty much instantaneous and the night phase was 10 seconds at most since it was meant to play live. Seems like a forum game version can be seen slow especially when players are not inactive. I would like to offer if you guys like to speed up all the phases. Each phase would end when all votes and actions are submitted. Please let me know what you guys think. I respect that. |
| seems good. 4 players don't have much discussion time anddd Vote: Phraze |
|
| I'm happy with phases ending with actions being submitted. Also okay with votes being locked when all are in. Don't love discussion being shortened but am fine with anything at this point. Anyway I'm the LVP for the citizen team. This is all my fault as we hurtle towards inevitable thief victory. Informat win con seems miserable. I should have theory gamed harder ahead of time. I hadn't realized solving the game publicly was the worst way to win. |
| Would try this format again probably but never with 4. 5 at least would be interesting. Or with Shamrock removed. Cops are uninteresting and in this setup potentially punishing. |
| Seems good to me too. 24 hours is a lot for 4 players. |
|
| Now back to the game~ Grapefruit21 said: Suzaku doing nothing makes me confident they are the thief. I think Phraze is the informant but Phraze if you're town please vote for Suzaku here. Wait what? When I say anything you get more convinced I'm thief, when I say nothing you get more convinced I'm thief. What did you want me to say? "Vote innocent, I'm not thief!"? I did that during the first phase and that convinced you I'm thief. Now that's ridiculous. Let's take a look at the players quickly: -First there's you, dead set on me being the thief. No matter what happens the only target you have is me. You even said arguing with me is worthless. -Then there's aa-dono, who's been sheeping you all throughout day 2 and barely questioned anything day 1. Asked me a couple of things but that's it. As long as you're voting me, she will be voting me. -And Phraze. She's Phraze, and I'm not saying it like people usually say "Phraze is Phraze, can't read her" and all. What I mean is that she's not one to be simply convinced, and you saw that day 2. She reads, she draws her conclusions and she acts accordingly. You need some real solid arguments to convince her. So yeah, I'm the kind of player who talks when he has something to say and stays silent otherwise. I've always been like that. You want me to say something? Ping me or quote me and I'll answer you, I can't see what you wanted me to say during that phase. You know, there's a possibility everyone has left behind. Couldn't you be the actual informant? The hit you took night 1 says you're not thief, but that's all. I'm surprised that possibility didn't cross anyone's mind, including mine. That could explain you overlooking aa's low profile. Vote: aa-dono Because killing informant would make everyone loose their decoy and town dies the following night. Though I gotta say Phraze's self vote bothers me. |
|
The Suspect has been appointed. Town and the Suspect herself must vote whether they are guilty or innocent. Phraze was accused to be the Crescent Moon Thief ! Voting Phase has Started! @Phraze @SuzakuTsubasa @aa-dono @Grapefruit21 Timer until the End of Voting Phase |
| @SuzakuTsubasa Phrazes play is the giveaway. Here voting makes no sense if she's the thief (she just wins if she votes guilty on you, we don't have time to move the votes to her afterwards before she kills you. So being coy and voting innocent is unneeded[which to be fair is the sort of accidental nasty play I could see her making]). So it's safe to assume she isn't. Dono could easily be the thief but we couldn't lynch her in time before I died. So town lost in that world anyway. Because you would always vote innocent if you were the informant. The thing is because of my awful claim the non town entities have perfect information and one of their win cons requires the other to survive. And the cleanest path to victory for the thieft is leaving the other alive till I'm dead. So yeah I either locked the game for the thief (you with Phraze being the informant) or Phraze is playing "against" her win con. I don't believe she's bad town or a bad thief so I believe I accidentally locked the game up for you. |
| Vote: Guilty |
| Vote: innocent |
|
Phraze said: Vote: innocent Why did you nominate yourself? |
| I'm highly bothered by that vote. Phraze has been pretty consistent so far IMO, but that's something I don't understand. Vote: guilty Self vote is always bad. |
|
| to see who I should side with |
|
SuzakuTsubasa said: I'm highly bothered by that vote. Phraze has been pretty consistent so far IMO, but that's something I don't understand. Vote: guilty Self vote is always bad. tsk tsk |
|
| vote: guilty I guess Suzaku will win? |
|
| Have I just made an enemy? |
|
| he won't |
|
SuzakuTsubasa said: prrrobably. unless u side meHave I just made an enemy? |
|
I have no idea what you're planning here. You're saying to side with you, but if we're not aligned there's nothing to gain for at least one of us. |
|
| I already have 2 enemies, I don't really need a third one~ |
|
SuzakuTsubasa said: at least we leave it up to roles. nobody claimed iirc so nothing to lose just some claimsPhraze said: prrrobably. unless u side me I have no idea what you're planning here. You're saying to side with you, but if we're not aligned there's nothing to gain for at least one of us. |
|
Final Vote Count: innocent - Phraze guilty - Grapefruit21, SuzakuTsubasa, aa-dono Town decided that Phraze is guilty. Phraze has lost their Decoy this Phase!  It is night time... The moon appears to be a Crescent Moon. You're all sleeping... But in the midst of darkness, the Crescent Moon Thief awakens... It is time for work. Night Phase 3 has Started! (No Discussions are allowed during the Night Phase) PM me with your actions if any. @Phraze @SuzakuTsubasa @aa-dono @Grapefruit21 Timer until the End of Night Phase 3 |
It is morning. Who was the target of the Crimson Moon Thief last night?  Phraze had her Treasure stolen last night! Phraze has been eliminated from the game! Phraze's role was: Everyone will lose all their Decoy. SuzakuTsubasa - has 0 Decoy aa-dono - has 0 Decoy Grapefruit21 - has 0 Decoy Town has gathered once again to find information about the thief and appointed a new Leader for today. SuzakuTsubasa has been appointed to be the Leader for this Phase! Discussion Phase has Started! @Phraze @SuzakuTsubasa @aa-dono @Grapefruit21 Timer until the End of Discussion Phase |
DenjaXOct 25, 2018 9:32 PM
| Vote: Innocent I don't understand why anything that has happened has happened but @aa-dono we're going to win this game!!! |
| Assuming it isn't another Crimson moon night. Then we lose. And I have no remaining confidence that anyone except maybe Phraze understood this game. |
| X) Suzaku have to vote someone first lol |
|
| I know but I'm impatient lol |
| @DenjaX I'm sorry, Denja, I give up. There's no way for me to survive the next day. Grapefruit21 said: Assuming it isn't another Crimson moon night. Then we lose. And I have no remaining confidence that anyone except maybe Phraze understood this game. Man, what an awful thing to say. I would like to see you in my place. Running some "kinda math but maybe not quite", the probability of Phraze being informant seemed to be around 50/50. I considered that, if she was town and the end of last day was an attempt at overthrowing a potential bad outcome, she could be dangerous. I wanted to target you tonight, but if she was Lucy I would have hit a protection, if she was Christina I would have hit her lost decoy. If she was informant I could have killed you, and then we would have entered a loop where she would only vote guilty on aa. It was a loss in any of these scenarios. The only light of hope was Phraze being town and not Christina, which led to me surviving day 5 and killing you night 5. |
|
| Also being targeted by cop night 1 was a pain with town not having any doubt about the claim and I might have reacted too late. That being said, I never roll scum and when I do I know I'm terrible (more than when I'm town), but I thought I was being decent day 1, for once. What sold me or made you target me? |
|
| @SuzakuTsubasa First off you're right I crossed the line. I was excited and surprised and was not thinking. I'm sorry. Second I'm confused by your reasoning. The loop is good for you though because you have the Thief ability. You will eventually win because no one will ever be voted guilty with you, dono, and Phraze alive short of someone playing against their win condition. Phraze would have had 95% certainty that you were the thief and dono was basically seeing the same world as me. At 1/1/1 there is no mutuality beneficial vote so the game loops until you NK whoever you are comfortable with. Even at 2/1/1 the game has no guilty majority's with perfect information. Which is basically where Phraze's refusal to vote you on D2 put us. You would always eventually win because we couldn't ever agree on a vote as long as the informant was alive. I also disagree on the phraze as informant math. With you being the thief it was at least 90%. Her refusal to vote you on D2 when I was confirmed not thief was very telling. |
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