[Summer 2014] Stalker Sales Estimates.

symbv said:

Given that the Spring Cour is drawing to a close, the wave of BD/DVD release for the cour's series has also arrived. Before the start of this cour, the usual view was that this cour was going to be a lot more successful than the Winter Cour, in fact could produce some of the best selling series for this year. Four anime were particularly marked as potential blockbuster (in 2ch parlance, the “4 Heavenly Kings of the cour”): LoveLive season 2, Mahouka-koukou no Rettousei, JoJo: Stardust Crusaders and, last but not least, Mekaku City Actors. Each has its own reason for being picked as the “king”: The licence of LoveLive got a huge boost after the first season aired and got even further big boosts after the phone game was released and further singles/concerts; Rettousei is considered the one light novel that is sold in huge quantities on par with Sword Art Online that has oddly yet to get animated; JoJo first season was a 20k sales class anime which got thumbs up from new fans as well as fans of the manga; Mekaku is a vocaloid project by charismatic producer Jin which got huge circulation on social sites and commands deep loyalty among fans.

As the cour started, however, it became very clear early on that out of the four, two saw its stars falling fast: Mekaku was hurt first by the heavy use of Shaft's style that reminded people of other Shaft's works, but a bigger problem was how people found themselves scratching their heads even after several episodes had been aired. Add a number of adaptation choices that did not please the original fans, the fortune of the anime sank fast: It is now predicted by Stalker to sell 3.6k, just above the Manabi line.

Rettousei got a lot of people talking, due to its fame (or notoriety) of having an almost omnipotent protagonist with a heavily (yandere) bro-con sister. There are people who are intrigued by the setting (and things they do or say) and there are also people who find them funny and good joke material. Anyway, the buzz that always circulated around the work pretty guaranteed a lot of people would watch the anime, and so it was. However, the complex technical settings (how magic works, the large cast of characters) means that the show moves in a plodding pace, which may be necessary to avoid confusion among the audience, but 7 episodes just for one arc also means that a lot of watchers felt underwhelmed and given the raised expectation due to the work's fame/notoriety, the disappointment was even greater. Also, the sakuga (animation) is fine but not eye-catchingly impressive (a lot of fans wondered aloud why another work done by Madhouse, No Game No Live, seems to have considerably better sakuga). The current predicted sales of v1 is 5.9k, which to a big name work like Rettousei can only be described as quite disappointing, though the number by itself is not too bad.

The new season of JoJo keeps up the high quality of sakuga, seiyuu performance and music from the first season. Even though the novelty and creative impact has worn off a bit by now (for example, many fans think the current OP is not as good, and indeed it did not sell as well, but it could be just because the OP's of the first season are just too good), the fans stay on with the new season as they find the same high quality execution and performance in this season, and those who bought the discs of the first season seem ready to buy the discs for this season as well. The estimate of 11.8k of v1 sales shows how strong the franchise is doing.

Which brings us to the Emperor (or Empresses?) of this cour, or perhaps even this year, which is LoveLive! 2Nd season. The franchise started modestly a few years ago (in 2010) had become a well-known name (at least among anime fans) by the time the first season ended, but the whole project never stopped after the series. New singles, new merchandise, new collaboration with other businesses (convenience stores etc) kept coming, and even more importantly is the release of the mobile phone game “LoveLive! School Idol Festival” on April 15th 2013 for iOS and June 6th 2013 for Andriod. This managed to draw in a lot of new, non-anime, fans who missed the music release of singles etc (because they did not get circulated much in mainstream media) and the anime (because those people do not usually watch anime that much) – it recently passed 3 million user logins (on May 23 2014). The game, together with music and anime, is considered the three pillars of LoveLive's success. The new season managed to get everything right: Cute and funny character sakuga, great music and concert sakuga (CG is no longer considered an issue at all by fans), touching and heart-warming story, deeper exploration of characters, links with first season and previously released singles. As one widely acclaimed episode followed another, the BD's keep staying in the top tier of sales ranking for the whole cour. As volume 1 also includes in its package unique content for the phone game and priority in lotterty for the coming live concert, the demand reaches overdrive. The current estimate of 59.4k is probably a far underestimate because a lot of people are going to buy the discs at storefront. It is even possible that its first week's sales will break the 72.2k record that Bakemonogatari vol.6 made years ago.

For this week's new release, a few are definitely doing better than people first expectations before the cour started. One Week Friends grabbed a lot of people's heart with the consistent quality of telling a creative and touching story on memory and friendship forming (and breaking) between young couples in high school. Sakuga, music and character design got a lot of applause, and it even raises the profile of the seiyuu who voiced heroine (and sang the ED), Amamiya Sora (and she is going to take on heroine roles of 3 shows in the coming cour). Its predicted sales has steadily improved from slightly above 3k to the 4.4k now.

Another show that has improved its fortunes over time is the show that takes up the “slice-of-life moe” (or “cute girls doing cute things”) slot which has seen a succession of well executed and widely praised works over the previous cours: Yuyushiki, Kiniro Mosaic, Non Non Biyori etc. “Gochuumon wa Usagi Desuka?” is closest to Kiniro Mosaic in terms of story style and character dynamic, and there is no coincidence that the two often get promoted together by the publisher, although arguably pre-anime GochiUsa may have even more fans than KinMosa as illustrations and merchandising are more plentiful for GochiUsa. Its predicted sales has also gradually improved over time and at 7k now is pretty respectable.

Like a few other titles this cour, Gaworare (Kanoja ga Flag wo Oraretara) is quite popular, well watched and well liked. In fact, the heavily moe artstyle gets into some good chemistry with a story that carries a serious edge, and the harem formed around the protagonist is refreshing in how neat it was formed and how little the story gets bogged down by the harem aspect. Sakuga and music are also considered good quality too. Its current predicted sales of 1.8k does not do justice to its popularity (which is even more the case for a few other shows like Chaika, Black Bullet and Gokukoku Brynhildr, which would be covered later).

Akuma no Riddle is considered a “Battle Royale with yuri” and it does not really veer from that theme. The original show did not start with a large number of expectant watchers and the successive rounds of (attempted) killings wore down the novelty over time. The show's ending takes some twists but is not convincing to everyone. All in all, the show cannot be called a success (although its OP, the first single by seiyuu Uchida Maaya was a success) and its predicted sales is currently 1.5k

I am writing only for the top titles and those with sales figure out this week. In the following week(s) I will write on other shows of this cour. Stay tuned.
Read more at http://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1206981#f58kAu09luvRvvKG.99

NicoNicoDesu said:
"'Battle Royale' with yuri."

Does this mean I should watch "Akuma no Riddle?"

27CansOfTuna said:
Is p4ga performance at the same level as p4a?