Beginner's Mafia v1 | Game Thread | Mafia wins!

When a day phase is about to end and you're in danger of being lynched, you'll want to persuade people not to lynch you.

One way to achieve this is to claim your role.
Claiming means, to tell people what your role (and alignment) is.

Soft-claiming is, when you only hint to your role.

The third option you have is to fake-claim = Lying about your role, claiming a role that is not yours.

Another term I should probably mention is mass-claiming.
A mass-claim is when every single player claims their role.

Mass-claims are often suggested by someone when the game is about to end, usually as a last attempt to find out who is mafia.

If you are scum (= anti-town), it is a good idea to think of a believable fake-claim in advance, in case someone will call for a mass-claim later.

When people are doubting your claim, it's best to reveal not only your role, but also your actions. (This only applies if you're a power role, obviously)
Telling people how you used your abilities - who you were targetting at night and why - will make your claim sound more credible.

And the last term regarding claims (that I can think of ^^) is counter-claim.
It is a claim that contradicts someone else's claim.

Example: There's only 1 Town Tracker in the game, and a mafia player fake-claims that role. Later, the real Town Tracker speaks up and counters their claim.

[ 1 ] Vote (Count) Analysis

The mafia's voting behavior

• The mafia may show a lack of interest in voting, unless they - or their partners - are being voted for themselves. Townies will try to scumhunt, but the mafia often focuses on avoiding being lynched instead.
  
• The mafia tends not to vote for each other. They'll try to get other players lynched - their goal is to eliminate the town faction after all.
  So when a mafia player is lynched, you'll often find the mafia on opposing lynch trains, because they tried to save their partner from being lynched.
  
• Their partners may do the opposite and hop on the lynch train instead.
  This is usually done when the mafia feels that their partner cannot be saved anymore. To confuse the townies into thinking they don't belong to the same faction, and to appear innocent.
  When two mafia players are both in danger of being lynched, it is also likely that they are voting for each other, or that one of them will "sacrifice" themselves for the other one.

Once a mafia member has been lynched, it's a good idea to take a closer look at:
- Players who were on opposing lynch trains. Especially those, who joined opposing trains *after* a mafia player had at least 1 vote on them.
- Players who joined the mafia's lynch train quite late (they could have been bussing their partner)

[ 2 ] Post Analysis

Vote Analysis and Post Analysis go hand in hand. It is important to look both at the votes and the motives behind people's actions.
To successfully find a mafia member by looking at people's posts, you should try to read between the lines, and figure out what their motives are.

From a townie's perspectve
Their goal is to find the mafia players, or else they lose.
While some of them have abilities (= power roles), Vanilla Townies only have one power: Their vote. Meaning that voting is the only way for them to achieve their win condition.
That is why townies (in general) appear more active when it comes to scumhunting during the day.

From the mafia's perspective
Their goal is to eliminate the townies, and their #1 fear is to be suspected and lynched.
Due to this fear, they will try to appear innocent, and will often seem overly cautious and "neutral". (They will also have the investigative town roles in mind, and a neutral behavior will help them avoid being targeted by those.)
In general, they will not be as motivated as the townies, when it comes to scumhunting. Because they will have more of a "survival" mindset during the day, versus the "scumhunting" mindset that townies usually have.

^ These are very basic patterns - I'm not saying that each townie or mafia player will appear just like I described it here. But what you should try to understand is that these two factions (townies and mafia) have different motives, which influence their behavior.

[ 3 ] Night Kill Analysis

This method is not as foolproof as the other ones, but I'll mention it anyway.
NKA means, to take a look at who the mafia has killed at night, and then deduce who is mafia based on their chosen target. [or more general: deducing why they picked their target]

(If you have a power role that can influence the mafia's kill - like a Doctor or Jailkeeper - you may find this part helpful as well.)

How the mafia picks their target
The mafia has to choose a target to kill each night, and the one thing they'll always try to do is: Pick a target that will bring them closer to victory.
But there are still various different strategies behind choosing who to kill.

Killing someone that seems like a threat
The motive behind killing someone, is often to get rid of a certain player due to fear of being caught by them.

This includes:

• Players that the mafia perceives as very strong, who have a reputation for being good at finding scum.
  
• Players that openly suspect the mafia players in the game thread. (They may feel threatened by someone who seems to "have it all figured out", and may want to get rid of them for that reason.)
  
• Players who (they think) have power roles, especially investigative roles. (They may want to get rid of the Cop, for example.)

Killing someone to frame another player
While the townies will spend the day phases trying to find scum, the mafia players will have their survival in mind. They'll be happy about every single player who seems more suspicious than them. If they're surrounded by "suspicious" town players, it will be easier for them to avoid being lynched.
In order to have the townies suspect each other, they may try to frame someone. They can sometimes achieve this with their night kill.

Example: Let's say it is night 2. I'm a townie and the day before, I mentioned how I suspected Chione and tried to convince the others to lynch her. She wasn't lynched after all, but everyone still remembers how I suspected her. Chione is a townie though, and the mafia may see this as the perfect opportunity to frame her - by killing me.
The next day, some people may start to think that I was killed because Chione is mafia, and perceived me as a threat after all. Even if they don't start voting for her right away, once the "seed of doubt" has been planted, people may start to mistrust her a little.
(The same thing could also work the other way round: If Chione was mafia, she may suggest to kill me to appear innocent. The next day, if someone concludes that "she is mafia, based on the nightkill", she could turn it around by saying that "the mafia was trying to frame her".)

Making sure the kill goes through
Another thing the mafia will probably consider when choosing a target: The town roles that are in play.
They will usually try to eliminate the townies as fast as possible. So if there is a Doctor or Jailkeeper in the game, they may avoid players who could be protected by these roles, to make sure their kill goes through. Instead of picking an obviously innocent player (who may be protected at night), they may choose to kill someone who was not in the spotlight during the day, and who isn't perceived as innocent by the others.

Not being seen, not getting caught
They may also try to avoid being seen at night. One role that the mafia is usually afraid of is the Watcher, someone who can learn who their target was visited by at night. If a Watcher picks the mafia's victim, they will find out the name of the killer. (This role is not part of this game, but I thought I'd mention it anyway.)

Getting rid of "confirmed" players
Players who have claimed their role, and who are confirmed townies - the mafia will not want to keep them alive for too long.
The other townies may start to trust them, and may follow their lead. The mafia on the other hand, will need to manipulate the town into not lynching them, but to lynch each other. To achieve this, they may keep the suspicious, non-confirmed townies alive instead. This ensures that the townies don't trust each other too easily.

[ 4 ] Process of Elimination (PoE)

It is often quite hard to identify who is bad, especially when there's only 1 mafia player left. That player might just be really clever and a good actor.
It is just as important to think of who is bad, as it is to think of who is town! Once you have that figured out, you'll gradually get closer to who's mafia.

You can make a list of all players and add what you know of each of them (claims, for example, and who they've voted for).
Group them into "suspicious", "not suspicious", "neutral".
Just by figuring out who is not suspicious at all (for example by looking at who has lynched a mafia member), it'll be a lot easier to narrow down suspects.