Anime & Manga News

Japan's Weekly Blu-ray & CD Rankings for Feb 3 - 9

by tsubasalover
Feb 11, 2014 1:17 AM | 119 Comments
Here are the weekly Blu-ray & CD rankings for February 3rd - 9th

Rank / This week's sales by copies / Cumulative sales / Titles

Blu-ray
*1. 14,477 14,477 Free! Vol.6
*2. 11,871 11,871 Natsume Yuujinchou: Itsuka Yuki no Hi ni Limited Edition
*3. *9,076 *9,076 Aoki Hagane no Arpeggio: Ars Nova Vol.2
*4. *6,731 *6,731 Kill la Kill Vol.2 Limited Edition
*5. *6,071 *6,071 Senki Zesshou Symphogear G: In the Distance, That Day, When the Star Became Music... Vol.5 Limited Edition
*6. *2,879 *2,879 Kyoukai no Kanata Vol.2
*7. **,941 **,941 Watashi ga Motenai no wa Dou Kangaetemo Omaera ga Warui! Vol.5
*8. **,906 **,906 Kyousou Giga Vol.2
*9. **,864 11,956 IS: Infinite Stratos 2 Vol.3
(cut-off 864)


DVD
*1. 8,177 *,**8,177 Natsume Yuujinchou: Itsuka Yuki no Hi ni Limited Edition
*2. 8,158 *,**8,158 Free! Vol.6
*3. 1,712 *,**1,712 Aikatsu! Vol.9
*4. 1,371 *,**1,371 One Piece 16th Season "Punk Hazard" Vol.3
*5. 1,306 *,**1,306 One Piece 16th Season "Punk Hazard" Vol.4
*6. 1,113 *,**1,113 Kill la Kill Vol.2 Limited Edition
*7. 1,009 *,**1,009 Aoki Hagane no Arpeggio: Ars Nova Vol.2
*8. *,924 *,**9,505 Kuroko no Basket 2nd Season Vol.1
*9. *,889 *,***,889 Kyoukai no Kanata Vol.2
10. *,869 *,***,869 Naruto: Shippuden "Ninkai Taisen - Kanata kara no Kougekisha" Vol.6
11. *,639 *,***,639 Senki Zesshou Symphogear G: In the Distance, That Day, When the Star Became Music... Vol.5 Limited Edition
12. *,622 1,237,723 Tonari no Totoro
13. *,479 *,*23,970 Gintama: Kanketsu-hen - Yorozuya yo Eien Nare Regular Edition
14. *,362 *,*60,829 Gintama: Kanketsu-hen - Yorozuya yo Eien Nare Limited Edition
15. *,360 *,**3,449 Tiger & Bunny DVD-BOX
16. *,342 *,**3,244 Brothers Conflict Vol.6 Limited Edition
17. *,337 *,530,346 Majo no Takkyuubin
18. *,301 *,**3,066 IS: Infinite Stratos 2 Vol.3
19. *,272 *,**7,316 Doraemon: Nobita no Himitsu Dougu Museum
(cut-off 272)


CD Single
*6. 15,129 *15,129 Nourin OP "Himitsu no Door kara Ai ni Kite" by Yukari Tamura
*7. 14,636 *14,636 Inari, Konkon, Koi Iroha. ED & Sekai Seifuku: Bouryaku no Zvezda OP "SAVED./Be mine!" by Maaya Sakamoto
*9. 11,943 *11,943 Magi: The Kingdom of Magic OP "Hikari" by ViViD
10. 10,730 *47,655 Love Live! School Idol Project/ "Takaramonos/Paradise Live" by μ's
12. *8,823 **8,823 Toaru Hikuushi e no Koiuta OP "azurite" by petit milady
15. *8,099 **8,099 Toriko ED "Mega Lover" by Rurika Yokoyama
17. *6,598 *34,425 The iDOLM@STER Movie: Kagayaki no Mukougawa e Theme Song "M@STERPIECE" by 765PRO ALLSTARS
21. *4,646 **4,646 Witch Craft Works ED "Witch☆Activity" by KMM Dan [Tanpopo Kuraishi (CV: Shiori Izawa), Tsurupeta (CV: Momo Asakura), Twintail (CV: Shiina Natsukawa), Gantai (CV: Yuuko Iida), and Deko (CV: Natsumi Hioka)]
24. *4,394 **4,394 Nagi no Asukara OP "ebb and flow" by Ray
25. *4,348 **4,348 Chuunibyou demo Koi ga Shitai! Ren ED "Van!shment Th!s World" by Black Raison d’etre
27. *4,215 *25,201 Nisekoi OP "CLICK" by ClariS
28. *3,374 508,293 Naruto: Shippuuden OP "Tsuki no Ookisa" by Nogizaka 46
36. *2,100 **6,477 Noragami OP "Goya no Machiawase" by Hello Sleepwalkers
40. *1,753 *10,925 Nourin ED & Inserted Song "Cordless☆Dere☆PHONE/Mogitate ♥ Fruit Girls" Yuka Kusakabe (CV: Yukari Tamura), Ringo Kinoshita (CV: Yukari Tamura) and Minori Nakazawa (CV: Kana Hanazawa)
41. *1,719 **1,719 Z/X: Ignition ED "Monochrome Overdrive" by Yurika Endou
45. *1,669 *14,374 Saikin, Chotto Imouto no Yousu ga Okaishiinda ga. ED "Charming Do!" by Yui Ogura
47. *1,628 **7,126 Chuunibyou demo Koi ga Shitai! Ren OP "VOICE" by ZAQ
48. *1,604 **1,604 Mahou Sensou OP "Senkou no PRISONER" by Yuuka Nanri
52. *1,552 **7,694 Inari, Konkon, Koi Iroha. OP "Kyou ni Koiiro" by May'n
56. *1,438 **6,924 Sakura Trick OP/ED "Won(*3*)Chu KissMe!/Kiss(and)Love" by SAKURA*TRICK
58. *1,345 **7,350 Sekai Seifuku: Bouryaku no Zvezda ED "Visumania" by Aoi Yuuki
61. *1,295 **7,893 Miss Monochrome OP "Poker Face" by Miss Monochrome (CV: Yui Horie)
64. *1,190 **7,084 Tokyo Ravens OP "~Outgrow~" by Gero
71. *1,071 **3,370 Witch Craft Works OP "divine intervention" by fhána
(cut-off 1,000)


CD Album
*4. 14,036 14,036 The iDOLM@STER Movie: Kagayaki no Mukougawa e OST by Ryuichi Takada
18. *2,977 17,968 Eir Aoi "AUBE" by Eir Aoi
14. *3,798 39,509 Uta no☆Prince-sama♪ Gekidan Shining "Tenka Muteki no Shinobi Michi" by Otoiya Ittoki (CV: Takuma Terashima), Masato Hijirikawa (CV: Kenichi Suzumura), Syo Kurusu (CV: Hiro Shimono), Cecil Aijima (CV: Kousuke Toriumi)
32. *1,911 12,632 May'n "NEW WORLD" by May'n
34. *1,707 *8,896 Bishoujo Senshi Sailor Moon The 20th Anniversary Memorial Tribute by Various Artists
65. *1,078 *1,078 Yun*chi "Asterisk*" by Yun*chi
(cut-off 1,000)


Source: Oricon Youtaiju

20 of 119 Comments Recent Comments

Torisunanohokori said:
The examples cited as manga/novel fueled (Maken-ki, KamiNomi, Zombie) aren't exactly locks because of their source material. First, Maken-ki has been a consistently 25k-30k selling manga since before season 1 of the anime, and hasn't budged since. Second, there's very little evidence that a second season gives a series a bump, whether the anime is selling well at that point or not.

I'm not trying to imply a rock-solid lock here, quite the opposite really. I just think that in the vast majority of cases, there are bigger factors at play than a couple hundred discs that may or may not have been lost to competition. Not least among the factors is the makeup of the committee, which can go a long way towards determining whether any alternate revenue stream's bump was "significant" or not. If a publisher isn't on or is low on the committee, a manga bump won't mean as much as it would for another show with the same bump and a publisher on top of the list, or CDs for a music distributor, and so on.

In any case like I've said, the original comment was about really low sellers, under 2k. Borderline cases are by definition less clear, but also less common. And the ones that will be affected just enough by competition to slip just under some threshold, with just the right committee makeup for this to be make-or-break, would be even less common. No doubt we could come up with some good candidates if we dig enough, but at the core of it all, I doubt we can meaningfully predict how many sales a niche show loses to competition in a "busy" season. The lower you get in sales, the less likely the sales were coming from new or casual fans of the franchise in the first place. And then you need to consider the audience for the "hit" shows in that season and how that compares to the audience of the "niche" show and so on and so forth...

Feb 18, 2014 2:26 PM by jmal

The examples cited as manga/novel fueled (Maken-ki, KamiNomi, Zombie) aren't exactly locks because of their source material. First, Maken-ki has been a consistently 25k-30k selling manga since before season 1 of the anime, and hasn't budged since. Second, there's very little evidence that a second season gives a series a bump, whether the anime is selling well at that point or not. Setting the effects of OVAs bundled with specific volumes aside (which are a big difference maker in KamiNomi's case), even more popular series like Natsume Yuujinchou and Nurarihyon no Mago get at best negligible bumps from seasons after the first planned run (at least based on available numbers). A sequel is much less likely to bring in new customers for the source material, so I'd argue that having a disk total such that the sequel could hit a reasonable target (factoring in the typical 0-50% dropoff) on that front could have been a factor for those 3 series.

There's also some counterexamples; series with similar-tier source material boosts but slightly lower sales that ended up not getting sequels. Kokoro Connect boosted its LNs by about 15k volumes in its initial 2 weeks compared to 25k for Zombie, while averaging 1k less in disks. Obviously, there's no exact cutoff point (Hidan no Aria and Campione did better on both fronts than either), but Zombie's case in particular I would say stands out as a case where it wouldn't be too far of a stretch to argue that the combination of factors pushed it over the hump from waste of money to potential calculated risk. Sequels aren't going to happen for most series in the 2k-4k range regardless, but we do see a few come out of it that aren't split cours and do only moderately well in an auxiliary market every now.

Feb 18, 2014 1:38 PM by Torisunanohokori

Torisunanohokori said:
That's true for shows deep below 3k, but what about the ones right below it? Sakurasou and Kamisama Kiss both picked up substantial boosts in source material and were right below 3k in averages. Getting an extra 1k in average disc sales would have shifted their odds of their getting a sequel by quite a bit. I'm not big on finagling failed series into relevance in general, but there are definitely cases of low-cost-success high-cost-borderline status out there where the marginal effect of losing a couple hundred buyers can be argued to have made a difference.

We can always theoretically talk about the perfect borderline case that just happens to have been juuuust short of the magical point where the production committee would have gone "let's greenlight a sequel!", sure. And I always do say every sale counts. And I bet there are some actual cases. That said, I'd bet most 3k±500 series with sequels were either split cour or saw much better than "borderline" boosts in other revenue streams.

Below are the 2500-3500 sellers from 2010-2012 that have had sequels released or announced and my guess at the overriding sequel reason, something that would have justified the sequel with or without slightly different disc sales:

Total: 34 series
Were sequels, no sequels after: 5
Not a sequel, have no sequel: 21
Got a sequel: 8

Arakawa Under the Bridge - Split cour?
Chihayafuru - NTV
Kami Nomi zo Shiru Sekai - Manga/merch
Kore wa Zombie Desu ka? - Novels
Maken-ki! - Manga/merch?
Rinne no Lagrange - Split cour
Teekyuu - Short eps
Tono to Issho - Short eps

I'd guess that by and large the ones with sequels would have gotten sequels even with a couple hundred less discs sold, and the ones without sequels wouldn't have gotten sequels even with a couple hundred more discs sold. Obviously for some it's just because they were only intended as one season and already told a complete story and thus sequel talk isn't relevant but we can ignore those.

It's all just guesswork of course. There can be so many other reasons why a sequel happens or doesn't.

Feb 18, 2014 12:59 AM by jmal

jmal said:
If you sell under 2k, not to mention under 1k, that goes well beyond just having some rough competition. Something else would be a better explanation.


That's true for shows deep below 3k, but what about the ones right below it? Sakurasou and Kamisama Kiss both picked up substantial boosts in source material and were right below 3k in averages. Getting an extra 1k in average disc sales would have shifted their odds of their getting a sequel by quite a bit. I'm not big on finagling failed series into relevance in general, but there are definitely cases of low-cost-success high-cost-borderline status out there where the marginal effect of losing a couple hundred buyers can be argued to have made a difference.

scytheavatar said:
There seems to be a change in otaku buying pattern recently, series like Knk/Kill La Kill/Non Non Biyori/(to a lesser extent)Arpeggio spent much of fall season outside of top 100 and shot up closer to release. The otakus no longer seem to believe in preordering months in advance. Think WCW will probably sell extremely well, it's doing better than Arpeggio did at the same episode last season and I won't be surprise to see it outsell Arpeggio.


I'm still skeptical of whether that's a permanent change in buying patterns or beliefs. Stalker data from the last sub-20k season would help validate this one way or the other, but I think it's reasonable to suggest the alternate explanation that the reason shows got those late boosts was because the people who normally buy anime had more of their limited budgets free than normal because no home run series took it from them early on.

Either way, that's still probably good for WCW, seeing as this season is taking place in similar conditions.

Feb 17, 2014 11:26 PM by Torisunanohokori

Hahalollawl said:
Finally, how much stock do we put into the "people have a limited budget" theory? I was under the impression that the more serious fans buy shows fairly early on (whether or not I think that's a good idea...) and that the NagiAsu boost (can we make that a thing like the Manabi Line? pretty please?) was a rare sight.


There seems to be a change in otaku buying pattern recently, series like Knk/Kill La Kill/Non Non Biyori/(to a lesser extent)Arpeggio spent much of fall season outside of top 100 and shot up closer to release. The otakus no longer seem to believe in preordering months in advance. Think WCW will probably sell extremely well, it's doing better than Arpeggio did at the same episode last season and I won't be surprise to see it outsell Arpeggio.

Feb 17, 2014 10:21 PM by scytheavatar

Torisunanohokori said:
I wouldn't necessarily agree with that point. Zetsuten's manga specifically got a decent-sized bump from the anime, as did Btoom and Kamisama Kiss from that fall. There have been a decent number of other fairly recent cases (Chihayafuru, Kimi to Boku, Kamisama Dolls) where manga sales went significantly up without a disc-selling anime. The low-budget fans who buy manga and the higher-budget fans who buy anime don't always seem to overlap. That, or there actually is semi-substantial evidence that some series could shut out by strong competition.

Ah, what I meant to say, but didn't do very clearly (I shouldn't write posts in small bits and pieces over the course of an hour while dong other things...) was that it's not competition that kept those shows from selling on disc. It's just that while they appealed to people who might want to buy the original material, they didn't appeal to disc buyers. Could also be that they sold people on the idea of the story itself, but not in the execution of the anime. I very much doubt Shinsekai Yori or Zetsuten (or KimiBoku to Kamidolls) would have sold on disc in any season, even a really weak one such as this, even though both got good sales increases to the source material.

If you sell under 2k, not to mention under 1k, that goes well beyond just having some rough competition. Something else would be a better explanation.

Feb 17, 2014 5:18 PM by jmal

jmal said:
But yes if, say, most people buy 2 shows and a certain show tends to be most people's #3, then yeah it could lose out. But that would require a pretty huge set of coincidences, especially if we try to rationalize sales as low as SSY's or Zetsuten's using it. Pretty sure that if a title were really that broadly popular you'd see it reflected in fanart, doujinshi, and other free or less expensive expressions of fandom.


I wouldn't necessarily agree with that point. Zetsuten's manga specifically got a decent-sized bump from the anime, as did Btoom and Kamisama Kiss from that fall. There have been a decent number of other fairly recent cases (Chihayafuru, Kimi to Boku, Kamisama Dolls) where manga sales went significantly up without a disc-selling anime. The low-budget fans who buy manga and the higher-budget fans who buy anime don't always seem to overlap. That, or there actually is semi-substantial evidence that some series could shut out by strong competition.

The same assertion might be more valid for LNs, where the overlap is stronger and the correlations of LN sales->anime sales->LN sales bump is comparatively tight.

Feb 17, 2014 4:03 PM by Torisunanohokori

Hahalollawl said:
Hmmm, perhaps I could have worded that differently. I meant no offense, I guess it was sort of a playful (and perhaps a bit jealous...) jab at you guys. Though perhaps I shouldn't be making fun of people who are supporting the industry...

Don't worry I didn't interpret it that way at all.

But on the other hand, (correct me if I'm wrong) you guys don't seem to go into every season thinking "Okay, I'm only going to buy 2-3 series this season so I have to narrow it down to my top 2-3 favorites" or with some kind of specific quota. Rather, you seem to go in thinking something more along the lines of "Let's see how good the shows are this season and maybe that will influence how many I buy".

More or less. But while the most I've imported in a single season is 8, even then I have had to pass on shows I thought import-worthy if a season was particularly good.

But now, for various reasons, I only watch a couple shows a season. I have Uchuu Kyoudai and Hunter x Hunter ongoing as long shows. In Fall I only finished 3 full-length shows (Non Non, Yozakura, and ongoing Log Horizon) and in Winter I'm only certain about finishing 4 full-length shows (Sakura Trick, Chuu2, Saki, Sonico) since I'm probably dropping WUG. Spring's lineup probably won't be much bigger than winter for me. Putting aside the return of Fairy Tail (which I'd put in the long-running column with HxH and UK rather than season-specific series), it's looking like only 3 definite and 6 maybe, and probably at least half of the latter won't pan out.

I guess I have interest in the budget aspect (obviously it differs from person to person, but in a general sense as to how the majority of buyers think) as it leads to the question, can we blame poor sales for some anime on poor timing? I guess it would be a wrong place, wrong time sort of thing.

I think that can sometimes be true to some extent, but it wouldn't really explain this Winter, which is following a lackluster Fall, which is following a lackluster Summer.

But yes if, say, most people buy 2 shows and a certain show tends to be most people's #3, then yeah it could lose out. But that would require a pretty huge set of coincidences, especially if we try to rationalize sales as low as SSY's or Zetsuten's using it. Pretty sure that if a title were really that broadly popular you'd see it reflected in fanart, doujinshi, and other free or less expensive expressions of fandom.

Feb 17, 2014 3:31 PM by jmal

The thing about timing is that, while it's definitely plausible and almost certainly a factor, any kind of convincing test would be difficult to do. Each individual 30-show season is a small sample by itself, prone to variances in quality and advertising. Too, they're potentially affected by penny-pinching anticipation for seasons after it and budget crunch caused by seasons before it in a rolling fashion (or lack thereof, in both cases). There are too many cases of big hits coming out in otherwise strong seasons and relatively few hits coming out in otherwise weak seasons for timing to be a particularly dominant factor.

That we're looking right now at a very weak winter on the heels of a fairly weak fall would be an argument against the specific notion of series getting a breakout chance in a weak season - to me, that suggests that what happens when there's no killer series is that people just buy less. It might be more relevant as a limiting factor for hits in seasons with several of them (Angel Beats versus K-on s2 in Spring 2010, possibly) rather than none of them, but at that point quality probably plays at least as big a role.

Feb 17, 2014 3:23 PM by Torisunanohokori

Timing can be a factor.

Two Nobunaga shows right now with characters from history... bad idea though it looks like neither one is stealing sales from anything.

Wizard Barristers, Magical Warfare, Witch Craft Works while Tokyo Ravens is still running? Not a great idea. Looks like WCW is going to win that one.

Wake Up Girls! seems rushed but better to run it now than while LoveLive! or IdolM@ster are on...

Feb 17, 2014 3:12 PM by hpulley

Hahalollawl said:

I guess I have interest in the budget aspect (obviously it differs from person to person, but in a general sense as to how the majority of buyers think) as it leads to the question, can we blame poor sales for some anime on poor timing? I guess it would be a wrong place, wrong time sort of thing. As in, perhaps a show was just in a particularly competitive season and did poorly because of its competition? Fall 2012 would be an example, as hpulley mentioned (heck of a season by the way. PP, ZnT, SSY, etc.). Take Shinsekai Yori for example. If not everyone can afford to buy 7 shows, would it make sense to put some of the blame (not all of course) for its low disc sales on it being in a very competitive season (I agree that Fall 2012 seems to have had a lot of shows that I think many would agree were high quality)? Or Zetsuen no Tempest perhaps?

Or is this just a foolish attempt by me to rationalize poor sales for some shows?


Timing is definitely a factor. However, some shows are less likely to become hits because the genre, themes, or even artwork fail to entice prospective buyers. Where big flops are concerned, there's a good chance that they would fail regardless of competition.

Feb 17, 2014 1:30 PM by Yause

Hmmm, perhaps I could have worded that differently. I meant no offense, I guess it was sort of a playful (and perhaps a bit jealous...) jab at you guys. Though perhaps I shouldn't be making fun of people who are supporting the industry...

It's not that you guys have unlimited funds and buy everything. But on the other hand, (correct me if I'm wrong) you guys don't seem to go into every season thinking "Okay, I'm only going to buy 2-3 series this season so I have to narrow it down to my top 2-3 favorites" or with some kind of specific quota. Rather, you seem to go in thinking something more along the lines of "Let's see how good the shows are this season and maybe that will influence how many I buy".

I guess I have interest in the budget aspect (obviously it differs from person to person, but in a general sense as to how the majority of buyers think) as it leads to the question, can we blame poor sales for some anime on poor timing? I guess it would be a wrong place, wrong time sort of thing. As in, perhaps a show was just in a particularly competitive season and did poorly because of its competition? Fall 2012 would be an example, as hpulley mentioned (heck of a season by the way. PP, ZnT, SSY, etc.). Take Shinsekai Yori for example. If not everyone can afford to buy 7 shows, would it make sense to put some of the blame (not all of course) for its low disc sales on it being in a very competitive season (I agree that Fall 2012 seems to have had a lot of shows that I think many would agree were high quality)? Or Zetsuen no Tempest perhaps?

Or is this just a foolish attempt by me to rationalize poor sales for some shows?

Feb 17, 2014 1:17 PM by Hahalollawl

Hahalollawl said:
Anyways, I still think enticing people into buying merchandise/discs in this age of digital media and the internet is a thorny issue. Fortunately for them, Japan seems to perhaps have a stronger attachment to physical media (you can check out this cnn article on cds in Japan http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/19/news/japan-cd-music/) than some other countries.


We have to be careful with that kind of data. While it's true that in comparison to digital sales, physical media holds up well, the industry's ability to monetize is in rapid decline.

Essentially, the market for CDs continues to shrink (and to some extent, it has always been a collector's market, with the masses renting or borrowing instead of buying), but at the same time, they've been unable to compensate through digital distribution. That's a difference from North America or Europe, where the masses are already used to buying music at a relatively low cost.

taj69 said:
The otaku model is outdated now, the industry for better or for worst has already been saved and is pretty much commercialized now. Dvd's don't even tell how much real profit is netted. Pretty much anything that is even remotely popular or profitable in other mediums gets shipped to anime now since it's much easier to make money.


That's only true for OADs and five minute anime. The industry relies heavily on DVD/BD distributors (often the leading investor) for financing, and those companies depend on home video sales.

If home video were to die overnight, we'd see a massive reduction in full-length anime.

Feb 17, 2014 12:51 PM by Yause

Hahalollawl said:
Finally, how much stock do we put into the "people have a limited budget" theory? I was under the impression that the more serious fans buy shows fairly early on (whether or not I think that's a good idea...) and that the NagiAsu boost (can we make that a thing like the Manabi Line? pretty please?) was a rare sight.

I do think budgets are limited, as I doubt most fans buy more than one or two shows a season. But even ignoring that, it depends what you mean by "early" and "late".

"Late" for me is in the last 2-3 weeks before solicitation. NagiAsu isn't so much late as a zombie rising from a grave - the most extreme of extreme cases.

"Early" for me is either at solicitation or in the first three episodes.

And I think it's not really an either-or, because the busiest times for preorders tend to be those two periods. But either way, it doesn't really factor into the Stalker discussion because even "late" is still within the weeks before and couple days after release, which are all intended to fall within Stalker's predictions. Week 2 onward is something else entirely, and generally not an overly huge factor.

Though I think it's good that people are starting to view Stalker as a site that underestimates final sales more often than it overestimates them, because that's true (and a welcome change! I'd rather it be conservative and low-ball a bit than raise expectations too high).


As far as me and "no budget", well there is a point where I have to stop buying of course, it just happens to be a lot higher than most fans', I guess. That said, Sakura Trick binge aside I am cutting back my viewing and buying rather sharply - it's not because of money though.

Feb 17, 2014 11:55 AM by jmal

It isn't quite "budget be damned" but if I have to have it, I have to have it. I have decided not to buy a show because I think it is too expensive for what it is, for the bonuses it contains but not because I am already buying too many shows.

I bought 7 full length shows last fall 2012 (plus some shorts) which was CRAZY silly and too much but... I had to have them so I got them. If money had really been no object and I bought everything I even remotely liked then I could have bought a TON of shows in fall 2012, I think that has to be one of my favorite seasons ever. Winter 2013 was second, I bought 6 shows, another absolutely wonderful season IMO.

I buy it right away; if it's a must buy show then it's a must buy NOW show for me. If I'm not sure I need it, if I don't get excited about getting it right away then it is likely that I'll never buy it.

I only bought 4 shows (still buying) from fall 2013 but that is still actually a good season for me. Before the crazy fall 2012 season I tended to just buy 2 series per season but again that's just because that was the number that was so good I had to have them.

So perhaps this is just a return to normalcy for me but I sure wish there were as many amazing shows now as there were a year ago.

Feb 17, 2014 11:50 AM by hpulley

taj69 said:
lol i wouldn't trust stalker since it only graphs pre-orders. This season is a perfect example of so many "decent" anime but not anything that would garner hype or pre-order. Most people have a set budget for anime so they will probably just buy 2-3 anime that they end up liking. In which case, noone has any idea yet of what they will buy or what the sales will turn out.

The otaku model is outdated now, the industry for better or for worst has already been saved and is pretty much commercialized now. Dvd's don't even tell how much real profit is netted. Pretty much anything that is even remotely popular or profitable in other mediums gets shipped to anime now since it's much easier to make money.


Hmmm...I would probably agree with the commercialized part and discs sales not necessarily determining profits. But the other stuff I'm not so sure. What do you mean by "otaku model"?

I thought the dependence on the sales of various merchandise/source material WAS the "otaku model". If so, then isn't that the model that fits the best?

And yeah, stalker is measuring preorders. But until the actual discs are available what else do you have to determine the success/reception of a show?

Also, are we sure that it's so easy to make money through anime (even with all related merchandise taken into account)? I'm not saying you're wrong but how do you know? I thought somewhere around two thirds of anime make a profit (over a long period of time), but still...I'm not sure that's "easy".

And I'm not sure I would call the industry "saved" at this point (assuming you believe it needed saving). What is your definition of "saved"? A market that is no longer contracting? An expanding market? Anyways, I still think enticing people into buying merchandise/discs in this age of digital media and the internet is a thorny issue. Fortunately for them, Japan seems to perhaps have a stronger attachment to physical media (you can check out this cnn article on cds in Japan http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/19/news/japan-cd-music/) than some other countries.

Finally, how much stock do we put into the "people have a limited budget" theory? I was under the impression that the more serious fans buy shows fairly early on (whether or not I think that's a good idea...) and that the NagiAsu boost (can we make that a thing like the Manabi Line? pretty please?) was a rare sight.

I mean, it seems to make financial sense since most people probably have limited funds, but I don't know how most anime purchasers think in terms of the purchase decision making process. It kind of seems like, based on people like jmal and hpulley (yeah not a great sample size, I admit) that people who can afford to buy the discs are already willing to pay quite a bit of money for something they like, and so they buy whatever they damn well please even if there are a bunch of shows they like in the same season (jmal especially, he buys multiples if he likes a show enough right? =P), budget be damned. So how much stock do we put in the theory that people are holding off because they want to be selective?

Feb 17, 2014 10:50 AM by Hahalollawl

taj69 said:
lol i wouldn't trust stalker since it only graphs pre-orders.

It attempts to predict fist week sales, and those are overwhelmingly from preorders. Of course Stalker makes no predictions about wk2+, and doesn't claim to, but most shows do very low sales after their first week. Even shows with what we consider "big" second weeks are doing a fraction of their first week sales. And of course shows with big second weeks are more likely than not the same shows with big first weeks.

All in all it's a much more complicated question than a couple sentences can explain, but Stalker does quite well the job it sets out to do, with certain caveats that people who use it would do well to learn early on. Saying "noone has any idea" what will sell is pure hyperbole. We don't know exact numbers down to the disc, but when all is said and done, the hits will generally be those predicted to be hits and the flops will generally be those predicted to be flops. That's been well established over years of sales watching already. Predictions get in the right ballpark quite often, but they're always better the closer you are to release date. It's still a bit early yet for many releases.

Honestly the biggest problem with Stalker isn't its own system (though that's certainly not perfect), but the human error introduced by people who don't understand what to do with it.

You're absolutely correct that DVD/BD most certainly don't tell the whole story about a series' profitability. Though how this indicates the "otaku model is outdated" I don't know, what you're describing (make an anime, rake in money through merchandise, source material sales, etc) is the otaku model exactly. And I don't understand the comment about "is pretty much commercialized now". When was this business even not commercialized? What else could it be?

Feb 17, 2014 1:25 AM by jmal

lol i wouldn't trust stalker since it only graphs pre-orders. This season is a perfect example of so many "decent" anime but not anything that would garner hype or pre-order. Most people have a set budget for anime so they will probably just buy 2-3 anime that they end up liking. In which case, noone has any idea yet of what they will buy or what the sales will turn out.

The otaku model is outdated now, the industry for better or for worst has already been saved and is pretty much commercialized now. Dvd's don't even tell how much real profit is netted. Pretty much anything that is even remotely popular or profitable in other mediums gets shipped to anime now since it's much easier to make money.

Feb 17, 2014 1:12 AM by taj69

To have easier access to/back-up/archive the estimates I keep track off, I made/revived a forum I made years ago and turned into a semi 'blog'. Just to make it easier for myself.


I'll obviously keep posting the estimates here every 2 weeks on Tuesday in the new sales thread, but since I always put the estimations together on Monday evening/night(GMT +1), i'll be posting on that site on Monday evening/night.


http://rederoin.motionsforum.com/

Feb 15, 2014 7:40 AM by rederoin

scytheavatar said:
Jiharo said:
*1. 27,067 Infinite Stratos 2


PLEASE GIVE ME INFINITE STRATOS 3!!


The odds of there never being a IS3 is pretty high. The anime has caught up with the LN and the author apparently has gone AWOL. So IS is pretty much in the same situation as Haruhi was, especially with the huge drop in S2 sales compared to S1.


Huh? I saw online that the anime have not caught up with the LN yet. IS2 only animate the next 3 volumes of the LN according to what I researched.

So IS+IS2 only animated like 6 volumes out of like 8? The 9th is pending.

If there's no IS3 I'll prolly start reading the LN.

Feb 15, 2014 6:21 AM by Jiharo