| The interesting thing about OreGairu v1 rising to new height in Amazon ranking is that currently the BD is out of stock. This means the upward movement is a delayed reflection of some very intensive buying some time back, and it only took time for its full impact on the ranking to show (just when the BD went out of stock). And the BD is now out of stock. If this situation does not change, I wonder how quickly it will start to move down. |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: The interesting thing about OreGairu v1 rising to new height in Amazon ranking is that currently the BD is out of stock. This means the upward movement is a delayed reflection of some very intensive buying some time back, and it only took time for its full impact on the ranking to show (just when the BD went out of stock). The thing is... it can still be ordered on Amazon. Had it been like GaruPan v1 back then, where you couldn't even order it... then this rise would've been very strange and quite impressive indeed. |
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Ejc said: So you can order but cannot tell when it will be delivered... I guess Amazon reckons the out-of-stock situation is going to be short and re-supply is certain, thus they decide not to shut off ordering. The thing is... it can still be ordered on Amazon. Had it been like GaruPan v1 back then, where you couldn't even order it... then this rise would've been very strange and quite impressive indeed. The ripple effect of OreGairu is still really impressive. As you said, it is not restricted to v1 - all the 7 volumes have made great strides on the chart. And I wonder what caused such surge of buying interests - the most recent episode was aired a few days back, no new extra announced for the BD/DVD, no new project announced either. Is it just down to a lot of casual buyers who are not used to preorder but instead just assume they can buy the BD/DVD on its first official day of release by going to the stores or ordering it online? If this is the case, then it would be something that Stalker would not be able to predict... |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: So you can order but cannot tell when it will be delivered... I guess Amazon reckons the out-of-stock situation is going to be short and re-supply is certain, thus they decide not to shut off ordering. It's more of that they don't know when they'll have more stock to deliver. Amazon would've put a rough date of restock had they even known slightly when it could possibly be back in stock from the distributor. Ordering would only be shut off if the distributors actually request it to be I think... which is probably what happened with GaruPan v1 back then. The other case where ordering would get shut off, is if the entry itself needs to be changed, and a new entry is where most of the buyers will migrate to when it opens up. symbv said: The ripple effect of OreGairu is still really impressive. As you said, it is not restricted to v1 - all the 7 volumes have made great strides on the chart. And I wonder what caused such surge of buying interests - the most recent episode was aired a few days back, no new extra announced for the BD/DVD, no new project announced either. Is it just down to a lot of casual buyers who are not used to preorder but instead just assume they can buy the BD/DVD on its first official day of release by going to the stores or ordering it online? If this is the case, then it would be something that Stalker would not be able to predict... Might be casual buyers, might just be the ripple effect from everyone pre-ordering v1 and deciding to order all others for the hell of it. If it's not those reasons, then the rise is very strange. I'm not sure if Stalker takes into account any storefront sales. It seems to only be from Amazon preorders which is why some titles end up being severely underestimated come its sales in the 1st week. |
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Ejc said: Hmm.. when I talked of the casual buyers, I was also thinking of the sudden surge of v1 buying. The casual buyer theory would be able to explain both the sudden surge of v1 on its first day of release as well as the accompanying rise of other volumes in Amazon. Ripple effect only covers the rise of v2 onwards but I am also thinking of all those reports that OreGairu v1 disappeared from shelves in stores (preorders on storefront would not cause BD to disappear from shelves as each store knows how many BDs they need to prepare in advance for fans' collection).Might be casual buyers, might just be the ripple effect from everyone pre-ordering v1 and deciding to order all others for the hell of it. Ejc said: Since Stalker estimate is supposed to be a prediction of the first week of sales according to Oricon, there must be some adjustment built in to reflect the storefront sales that could not be measured by the Amazon ranking. And since such adjustment cannot easily be made to vary according to how strong a title performs on storefront, this makes it one of the biggest uncertainties when we use Stalker estimate to guess the first week sales as reported in Oricon.I'm not sure if Stalker takes into account any storefront sales. It seems to only be from Amazon preorders which is why some titles end up being severely underestimated come its sales in the 1st week. |
symbvJun 26, 2013 10:02 AM
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: Hmm.. when I talked of the casual buyers, I was also thinking of the sudden surge of v1 buying. The casual buyer theory would be able to explain both the sudden surge of v1 on its first day of release as well as the accompanying rise of other volumes in Amazon. Ripple effect only covers the rise of v2 onwards but I am also thinking of all those reports that OreGairu v1 disappeared from shelves in stores (preorders on storefront would not cause BD to disappear from shelves as each store knows how many BDs they need to prepare in advance for fans' collection). That could be possible if casual buyers who were looking to buy at store fronts found there wasn't any stock left and went on Amazon and just bought every volume with the fear of missing out on getting a copy themselves... not really understanding that limited editions don't go completely out of stock (unless you are GaruPan) that often on Amazon. symbv said: Since Stalker estimate is supposed to be a prediction of the first week of sales according to Oricon, there must be some adjustment built in to reflect the storefront sales that could not be measured by the Amazon ranking. And since such adjustment cannot easily be made to vary according to how strong a title performs on storefront, this makes it one of the biggest uncertainties when we use Stalker estimate to guess the first week sales as reported in Oricon. That is an interesting theory. Sometimes I wonder if Stalker actually uses that daily ranking data from HMV, Rakuten, Animate, Gamers and softmap to try and compensate for storefront sales that could otherwise not be measured from just Amazon preorders/sales. However, even that is pretty hard to do... as those 5 stores they track on Stalker are just some of many stores that sell anime as well. |
| The News Club: Quality News/Discussion (anime, CDs, manga, novels, games, seiyuu), & sales data (daily, weekly, mid-year, yearly). |
| And if the casual buyer theory is true then there is a possibility of Stalker underestimating OreGairu's sale. It would not even be foretold by using the HMV, Animate, Gamers and Softmap ranking. Now I am interested to see how OreGairu ranks in tomorrow's daily ranking, which will report on the sales made today, including all those purchases that got OreGairu discs to fly off and disappear from the shelves. |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: And if the casual buyer theory is true then there is a possibility of Stalker underestimating OreGairu's sale. It would not even be foretold by using the HMV, Animate, Gamers and Softmap ranking. Now I am interested to see how OreGairu ranks in tomorrow's daily ranking, which will report on the sales made today, including all those purchases that got OreGairu discs to fly off and disappear from the shelves. I would love to see how it ranks tomorrow as well. Of course... future sales on Amazon won't be reflected until there is stock available to be delivered again, so its sales this week is possibly going to be lower than reality. However, OreGairu. shouldn't have any trouble to rank again next week with the apparent high demand it has right now. |
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| Sorry to bring up Totoro AGAIN But I heard this is the 600th consecutive week that it has made the Oricon ranking World record. |
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Shih said: And that took 11 years and 9 months to achieve.Sorry to bring up Totoro AGAIN But I heard this is the 600th consecutive week that it has made the Oricon ranking In fact the top 5 of longest-ranking DVDs in Oricon are ALL Ghibli stuff !!! Totoro - 600 weeks Kiki's Delivery - 546 weeks Laputa - 535 weeks Spirited Away - 411 weeks Nausicca - 372 weeks |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
| ^ It is now back in stock in Amazon, but delivery date is now pushed back to July 20th !!! |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: ^ It is now back in stock in Amazon, but delivery date is now pushed back to July 20th !!! I think the difference between now (June 27) and July 20, is even worse than the longest delivery date pushback for GaruPan (excluding v1 of course). OreGairu.'s sales must be truly more massive than we thought it would be, wow... |
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Ejc said: All hail Hachiman.symbv said: ^ It is now back in stock in Amazon, but delivery date is now pushed back to July 20th !!! I think the difference between now (June 27) and July 20, is even worse than the longest delivery date pushback for GaruPan (excluding v1 of course). OreGairu.'s sales must be truly more massive than we thought it would be, wow... |
 Kickstarter for Rokujouma is fully funded. Good work everyone. Lets wait for the result of our hard work together. |
| I can see why, like GirlPan, this anime is one that expands the buying customer base. Whereas in GirlPan there are 'casual fans' (of anime) who are the military otaku who rush to buy the discs, here we may have 'casual fans' who are attracted by the unique, eccentric but also oddly realistic and down-to-earth theme of a loner in high school and the dynamic among classmates and within cliques. I have read quite a number of online comments about how true the portrayals in the anime are like compared to the experience or memory from their high school days (to the extent that some said they are both discomfited and appealed by it) - I wonder how many of these people may be new to buying anime BD/DVD. |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
| Oricon Daily Top 30 DVD/Top 20 BD Rankings for June 26. DVD Daily *24 *25 *26 *27 *28 *29 *30 週 *** **2 **1 *** *** *** *** | -- | UtaPri 2000% 1 *** **9 **9 *** *** *** *** | -- | Hetalia The Beautiful World 2 *** *12 *10 *** *** *** *** | -- | SAO 9 *** *20 *17 *** *** *** *** | -- | Magi 7 *** *19 *19 *** *** *** *** | -- | Valvrave 1 *** *29 *21 *** *** *** *** | -- | AMNESIA 4 *** *21 *28 *** *** *** *** | -- | OreGairu. 1 *** *28 *29 *** *** *** *** | -- | Little Busters! 7 *15 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Eva 3.33 *18 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Kotonoha no Niwa *21 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Karneval 2 BD Daily *24 *25 *26 *27 *28 *29 *30 週 *** **1 **1 *** *** *** *** | -- | UtaPri 2000% 1 *** **2 **2 *** *** *** *** | -- | SAO 9 *** **3 **4 *** *** *** *** | -- | Gurren Lagann Complete Box *** **6 **6 *** *** *** *** | -- | Little Busters! 7 *** *10 **7 *** *** *** *** | -- | Valvrave 1 *** **8 **9 *** *** *** *** | -- | OreGairu. 1 **5 *** *10 *** *** *** *** | -- | Love Live! 4 *** *17 *12 *** *** *** *** | -- | HenNeko. 1 *** *11 *13 *** *** *** *** | -- | ViviPan 4 *** *16 *16 *** *** *** *** | -- | Namiuchugiwa no Muromi-san 1 *** **7 *18 *** *** *** *** | -- | Index Box **4 *** *19 *** *** *** *** | -- | GaruPan 6 *** *15 *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Minami-ke Tadaima 4 *** *18 *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Black Lagoon Box *** *19 *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Yuyushiki 2 **7 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Kotonoha no Niwa **8 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | OreImo. 1 **9 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Chu2koi! 7 *10 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | PSYCHO-PASS 7 *11 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Gundam SEED DESTINY HD Remastered BOX 1 *12 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Eva 3.33 *13 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Karneval 2 *16 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Berserk Ougon Jidai-hen III *17 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Love Live! 3 *19 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Love Live! 2 *20 *** *** *** *** *** *** | -- | Majestic Prince 1 |
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| Not only did it not rise but now it was beaten by Valvrave LOL And Love Live is just strong ! (and I guess GirlPan too) |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: Not only did it not rise but now it was beaten by Valvrave LOL Valvrave must've had more stock available at storefront than OreGairu... as OreGairu did run out of stock lol. OreGairu will probably drop in rank in the coming days as no stock at Amazon is apparently getting delivered. symbv said: And Love Live is just strong ! (and I guess GirlPan too) After having some stock to actually be delivered on June 26... it's to be expected. For GaruPan... it has sales numbers to catch up to match v5. I don't think GaruPan will have such a disastrous 2nd week as v5 did, lol. |
| The News Club: Quality News/Discussion (anime, CDs, manga, novels, games, seiyuu), & sales data (daily, weekly, mid-year, yearly). |
| Also at least we see HenNeko indeed seems to do stronger on storefront... |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
bippo said: Not just Amazon though, Animate and Tora no Ana also went out of stock. But then as Ejc said, there is likely to be more Valvrave stocked than OreGairu.lmao at yahari. So this amazon out of stock shit is just a small amount. |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
| BD Top 100 is now out. Source: http://www3.atchs.jp/test/read.cgi/urisure/1358138075/55 Love Live! 1~3 got decent boosts! :) Hope it can pull numbers like that in this week's Top 100 chart! Crime Edge 1 sells extremely low as feared. GaruPan SE 3 and 4 do end up selling much less as expected. GaruPan 3~5 continue to chart! Chu2koi! 6 manages to squeeze a few more! 2013/07/01付 BDTOP100 (集計期間：06/17～06/23) New entries: 21 -- *2,100 **2,100 *1 Maoyuu Maou Yuusha 4 22 -- *2,027 **2,027 *1 DEVIL SURVIVOR2 the ANIMATION 1 24 -- *1,880 **1,880 *1 Karneval 2 25 -- *1,795 **6,605 *6 Gundam Zeta Memorial Box Part.Ⅱ 27 *4 *1,626 379,333 *9 Eva 3.33 28 -- *1,568 **1,568 *1 Yamato Gekijou-ban 32 -- *1,143 **1,143 *1 Hakkenden: Touhou Hakken Ibun 4 35 -- *1,009 **6,267 *7 Gundam Zeta Memorial Box Part.Ⅰ 37 -- **,911 ***,911 *1 KamiHaji 7 38 18 **,866 *18,307 *4 Love Live! 3 41 25 **,722 *20,612 *9 Love Live! 2 47 31 **,637 *29,320 14 Love Live! 1 48 -- **,629 ***,629 *1 GaruPan Standard Edition 3 50 -- **,615 ***,615 *1 Shinsekai Yori 8 52 -- **,559 ***,559 *1 GaruPan Standard Edition 4 53 13 **,536 *25,739 *4 Yamato2199 5 57 -- **,501 ***,501 *1 Kurogane no Linebarrel Blu-ray BOX 58 32 **,492 *34,918 *4 GaruPan 5 65 -- **,410 ***,410 *1 Hiiro no Kakera Second Season 6 68 -- **,379 ***,379 *1 Saint Seiya Ω 11 72 -- **,346 ***,346 *1 Crime Edge 1 82 -- **,293 ***,293 *1 Code:Breaker 07 84 37 **,281 *25,321 *5 SAO 8 88 50 **,261 *35,259 14 GaruPan 3 91 35 **,248 *11,308 *5 009 RE:CYBORG Deluxe Edition 92 90 **,244 *35,776 *9 GaruPan 4 94 70 **,239 *12,820 *6 Chu2koi! 6 95 36 **,232 **5,386 *5 009 RE:CYBORG Regular Edition 97 -- **,221 ***,221 *1 Gundam SEED DESTINY HD Remaster Blu-ray BOX 1 99 24 **,214 *14,627 *4 JoJo Vol.5 Blu-ray 100(*,211) |
EjcJun 27, 2013 8:06 AM
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| So many GirlPan and Love Live !! 346 ?? 346 ??!! 346 ???!!!??? |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: 346 ?? 346 ??!! 346 ???!!!??? I was really overly optimistic about Crime Edge. That's gotta be one of the biggest overestimates on Stalker right? |
| The News Club: Quality News/Discussion (anime, CDs, manga, novels, games, seiyuu), & sales data (daily, weekly, mid-year, yearly). |
symbv said: You need that on a Crime Edge strangulation screen shot... Poor Kiri and Iwai...So many GirlPan and Love Live !! 346 ?? 346 ??!! 346 ???!!!??? |
| Updated 2013 Spring Preliminary First Volume Sales Key: Total - # Weeks Charted - Title - Format ranked - Release Date 17,940 *1 Ore no Imouto ga Konnani Kawaii Wake ga Nai. [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/19 ------ 10,000 Line ------ *8,906 *3 Karneval [BD+DVD]: 2013/05/28 *5,072 *3 Haiyore! Nyaruko-san W [BD+DVD]: 2013/05/31 *4,162 *2 Yondemasuyo, Azazel-san. Z [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/05 *3,960 *1 Devil Survivor 2 the Animation [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/19 *3,155 *1 Ginga Kikoutai Majestic Prince [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/21 ---- Manabi Line (2899) ---- *2,813 *3 Yuyushiki [BD]: 2013/05/29 **,346 *1 Dansai Bunri no Crime Edge [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/19 **,*** ** Arata Kangatari [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/21 (not yet on sale or sales data not yet available) Uta no Prince sama Maji Love 2000% [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/26 Hyakka Ryouran Samurai Bride [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/26 Namiuchigiwa no Muromi-san [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/26 Yahari Ore no Seishun LoveKome wa Machigatteiru [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/26 Hentai Ouji to Warawanai Neko [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/26 Kakumeiki Valvrave [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/26 Date A Live [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/28 RDG Red Data Girl [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/28 PhotoKano [BD+DVD]: 2013/06/28 Hatarakou Maou-sama! [BD+DVD]: 2013/07/03 Shingeki no Kyojin [BD+DVD]: 2013/07/17 Toaru Kagaku no Railgun S [BD+DVD]: 2013/07/24 Zettai Bouei Leviathan [BD+DVD]:2013/07/24 Aku no Hana [BD+DVD]: 2013/07/26 Mushibugyou [BD+DVD]: 2013/07/26 Aiura [BD]: 2013/08/07 Suisei no Gargantia [BD Box]: 2013/08/28 Ejc said: Remember when we talked, I was being pessimistic and put the cap as around 600 or so because it ranked lower than Shinsekai Yori? Boy was I in fact being wildly optimistic !! Now I can't help thinking perhaps the mysterious drop was reflecting the reality and all the climbs before and after that drop were some kind of fakes...symbv said: I was really overly optimistic about Crime Edge. That's gotta be one of the biggest overestimates on Stalker right?346 ?? 346 ??!! 346 ???!!!??? |
symbvJun 27, 2013 8:12 AM
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
| 346, wow that's indeed very low for a decent title. Crime Edge may take the title of worst sale in Spring season instead of Aku no Hana. |
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symbv said: Ejc said: Remember when we talked, I was being pessimistic and put the cap as around 600 or so because it ranked lower than Shinsekai Yori? Boy was I in fact being wildly optimistic !! Now I can't help thinking perhaps the mysterious drop was reflecting the reality and all the climbs before and after that drop were some kind of fakes...symbv said: I was really overly optimistic about Crime Edge. That's gotta be one of the biggest overestimates on Stalker right?346 ?? 346 ??!! 346 ???!!!??? Probably Crime Edge fell victim to well timed troll preorders, which spawned from trolling Aku no Hana... or Crime Edge suffered an unprecedented amount of cancellations for some reason. |
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| And Arata Kangatari didn't rank at all? I am not surprised, I dropped it during the first episode... |
ThangLong said: Hmmm I suppose you already saw the post I have just made --- look at Arata Kangatari...346, wow that's indeed very low for a decent title. Crime Edge may take the title of worst sale in Spring season instead of Aku no Hana. hpulley said: I lasted longer -- dropped after 4th episode. And this is the only anime out of the 28 I followed in this season that I dropped...And Arata Kangatari didn't rank at all? I am not surprised, I dropped it during the first episode... |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
hpulley said: And Arata Kangatari didn't rank at all? I am not surprised, I dropped it during the first episode... Oh, now that you mentioned it, I did not notice that Arata did not even rank. In fact, the anime slips through my radar this entire time. It looks quite nice, how comes? symbv said: ThangLong said: Hmmm I suppose you already saw the post I have just made --- look at Arata Kangatari...346, wow that's indeed very low for a decent title. Crime Edge may take the title of worst sale in Spring season instead of Aku no Hana. Yea, I just saw that :p |
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Ejc said: My take is the first reason may be closer to the reality as I did not see any particularly bad feedback for the series throughout the season. It also has not turned into an "air anime" where attention just slipped away and nobody talked about it any more -- from what I see there are quite a lot of attention and watching souls up till the end of the series.Probably Crime Edge fell victim to well timed troll preorders, which spawned from trolling Aku no Hana... or Crime Edge suffered an unprecedented amount of cancellations for some reason. Looking at the discrepancy between Stalker and actual first week sales, Stalker does not do that bad (I put +/-20% as quite good for an estimation) OreImo2 : Stalker 21.6 Actual 17.9 -17% Karneval : Stalker 6.3 Actual 7.3 +16% Azazel2 : Stalker 4.7 Actual 3.8 -19% Nyaruko2 : Stalker 3.4 Actual 4.4 +29% Devil Survivor 2 : Stalker 3.4 Actual 4.0 +18% MJP : Stalker 3.0 Actual 3.2 +10% Yuyushiki : Stalker 1.5 Actual 2.2 +47% But here we have Crime Edge : Stalker 3.0 Actual 0.3 -90% !!!! Something definitely has gone very wrong... |
symbvJun 27, 2013 8:38 AM
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: Ejc said: My take is the first reason may be closer to the reality as I did not see any particularly bad feedback for the series throughout the season. Probably Crime Edge fell victim to well timed troll preorders, which spawned from trolling Aku no Hana... or Crime Edge suffered an unprecedented amount of cancellations for some reason. Looking at the discrepancy between Stalker and actual first week sales, Stalker does not do that bad (I put +/-20% as quite good for an estimation) OreImo2 : Stalker 21.6 Actual 17.9 -17% Karneval : Stalker 6.3 Actual 7.3 +16% Azazel2 : Stalker 4.7 Actual 3.8 -19% Nyaruko2 : Stalker 3.4 Actual 4.4 +29% Devil Survivor 2 : Stalker 3.4 Actual 4.0 +18% MJP : Stalker 3.0 Actual 3.2 +10% Yuyushiki : Stalker 1.5 Actual 2.2 +47% But here we have Crime Edge : Stalker 3.0 Actual 0.3 -90% !!!! Something definitely has gone very wrong... LOL 90% damn. Those trolls did a very good job in causing such a discrepancy. Quite annoying for us that follow sales in trying to interpret Stalker data, but now I worry for some of the Stalker predictions this season. I can't remember which anime were suspected to have also fell victim to preorder trolls... but there were quite a few this season. |
| The News Club: Quality News/Discussion (anime, CDs, manga, novels, games, seiyuu), & sales data (daily, weekly, mid-year, yearly). |
| Speaking of crime edge, anyone know if it's split-cour? At the end of the last ep there were scenes of what appeared to be season 2. I wonder how that works after it bombed so hard o.O |
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Ejc said: Hmmm.. I can't really think of any though. Distortion for SnK, OreImo2 and particularly Railgun2 would be due to their spell on #1. Otherwise I could only think of Aku no Hana (and perhaps one or two other titles around that time) but the spike was much much briefer and I would not think it has done any lasting damage to the Stalker estimate. If this unprecedented off-the-scale miss for Crime Edge was really some troll job, that means those people have now found a systematic and sustainable way of fooling with the Amazon order system. The blip in Aku no Hana's case may have been caused by just a few clicks of huge fake orders, but to produce the illusion of Crime Edge at continuously high places, it needs some sustained effort in placing fake orders. Perhaps those people actually wrote a robot program to place those fake orders and cancel them day in day out....I can't remember which anime were suspected to have also fell victim to preorder trolls... but there were quite a few this season. Yvese said: Actually reactions of fans in Japan (before this catastrophic result was out) is that the staff seemed to just give up and decide to cram all the 2nd season into the last 2 minutes or so of the last episode. It is as if they knew there is little chance of a 2nd season but they still want to tell watchers that there are quite a bit of story still ahead...Speaking of crime edge, anyone know if it's split-cour? At the end of the last ep there were scenes of what appeared to be season 2. I wonder how that works after it bombed so hard o.O |
symbvJun 27, 2013 11:50 AM
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: Aww. That's pretty sad if that's the case.Yvese said: Actually reactions of fans in Japan (before this catastrophic result was out) is that the staff seemed to just give up and decide to cram all the 2nd season into the last 2 minutes or so of the last episode. It is as if they knew there is little chance of a 2nd season but they still want to tell watchers that there are quite a bit of story still ahead...Speaking of crime edge, anyone know if it's split-cour? At the end of the last ep there were scenes of what appeared to be season 2. I wonder how that works after it bombed so hard o.O |
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symbv said: If this unprecedented off-the-scale miss for Crime Edge was really some troll job, that means those people have now found a systematic and sustainable way of fooling with the Amazon order system. The blip in Aku no Hana's case may have been caused by just a few clicks of huge fake orders, but to produce the illusion of Crime Edge at continuously high places, it needs some sustained effort in placing fake orders. Perhaps those people actually wrote a robot program to place those fake orders and cancel them day in day out.... People would just need to have an anime ranking relatively high each day... since apparently the Stalker points accumulated each day is based on the average ranking on that particular day. Yes, i'd think someone must've written a computer program to place fake orders and cancel them, then place them over and over again. I'd wonder if they wrote it to occur periodically or something more random for the time interval? I'd imagine Amazon should have a system that detects robot-like behaviour, though... |
| The News Club: Quality News/Discussion (anime, CDs, manga, novels, games, seiyuu), & sales data (daily, weekly, mid-year, yearly). |
Ejc said: yeah, average ranking means the place needs to be sustained continuously at a high position. My fear is that any group that uses a robot program to mess up the estimate of Crime Edge can do it to any anime in future including those that get a lot of attention.People would just need to have an anime ranking relatively high each day... since apparently the Stalker points accumulated each day is based on the average ranking on that particular day. Ejc said: I do hope so. Of course Amazon may not think it is as urgent as we think because the title that is affected (Crime Edge) was not at any particularly high position even at its peak, although I surely hope they do not think this way. I'd imagine Amazon should have a system that detects robot-like behaviour, though... That said, I wonder how an online retailer can do? If there is an order coming in, surely it will take its order? Perhaps it can detect the IP address of repeated cancellations and bar the access from that IP address? |
symbvJun 27, 2013 9:42 AM
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
symbv said: The trouble is that amazon does not let you add things to current orders so I commonly add all the items from an order to my shopping basket, add my new items, try to post the order in case any of the items are now unavailable and if it works, I post that order and cancel my original order. I don't do it daily but some items I may order and cancel several times. If they kick me out for cancelling 20 orders then they will lose a customer who orders too much for his own good... I don't see how they could do this unless they add a new "edit order" function so I don't have to cancel. I wish they would do this!...That said, I wonder how an online retailer can do? If there is an order coming in, surely it will take its order? Perhaps it can detect the IP address of repeated cancellations and bar the access from that IP address? |
| That kind of trolling should be illegal, that can destroy the reputation of both retailers and studios. |
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| Interesting speculation about the robot program I would say. In fact, all might have been a conspiracy to test a manipulating software on low sale anime like Crime Edge and AnK, so that no one would notice the difference. When proven successful, attackers can move to bigger targets, messing up the expectation of popular anime. This is a kind of corporate espionage that we hear so much about :D ...Or maybe it's just some kids wanna mess up 2chan sale thread :) |
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Hoppy said: That kind of trolling should be illegal, that can destroy the reputation of both retailers and studios. I don't see how it would really destroy their reputations, given that these for the most part aren't based off the reliability of their rankings. But it might cause problems in other ways. After all, a lot of publishing companies use preorder figures to gauge roughly how successful a series is, as well as how many copies to make, etc., before the actual release date. If the number of preorders is fluctuating erratically because of some trolls, then the company loses viable and useful data to help with its own operation. |
| There is no such thing as shit taste. Only idiots who think everyone should have the same taste as they do. |
| I can't help but think that BD cover hurt Crime Edge. Having the main heroine violated with an ahegao face wasn't a good idea at all. |
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jmal said: RyanSaotome said: I can't help but think that BD cover hurt Crime Edge. Having the main heroine violated with an ahegao face wasn't a good idea at all. What evidence is there in the rankings for that though? I would guess that sort of thing would impact store sales more than online retailers. But anyway, I doubt that would have more than a marginal impact. |
| There is no such thing as shit taste. Only idiots who think everyone should have the same taste as they do. |
RyanSaotome said: I can't help but think that BD cover hurt Crime Edge. Having the main heroine violated with an ahegao face wasn't a good idea at all. Lol tbh, in Japan, I would think that the cover helped sales. Obviously this would censored the crap out of in the US. But this is Japan we're talking about here. |
| Oreimo sold really well, time to pick it upi |
| "Justice Never Dies!" - Kenji Endou, 20th century Boys |
hpulley said: Precisely. That is why I think despite my desire for Amazon to do something about it I cannot come up with any good idea of how such troll orders can be stopped. If they kick me out for cancelling 20 orders then they will lose a customer who orders too much for his own good... I don't see how they could do this unless they add a new "edit order" function so I don't have to cancel. I wish they would do this! jmal said: My fear is Crime Edge was just picked as testing ground, and there may be some more serious manipulation for bigger items in future...Also seriously Why Crime Edge, man that's such a bizarre choice. RyanSaotome said: While this may or may not be a factor, it is better to elaborate any evidence that supports it as a credible reason for the poor sales. For example, did we see a drop in its ranking after the cover art was announced? As far as I know, this does not seem to be the case.I can't help but think that BD cover hurt Crime Edge. Having the main heroine violated with an ahegao face wasn't a good idea at all. |
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
| On the bright side, if this Crime Edge thing is just a troll, it could be fun in the future trying to figure out which show is the troll ranking show of the season. |
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| ^ Selling just half of Shinsekai Yori or Fractale is really shocking - I mean, the attention that this show got, at least in terms of report by anime sites and chatting level in forums like 2ch, is definitely more than those 2 shows. 2ch could only go back and find Nekokami Yaoyorozu for a comparable anime (one of the three "imploded sales" Kami anime in 2011 Summer). Personally I would make a guess of 1-2k for its sales, and 0.3k is really really really low. RyanSaotome said: But much less fun in tracing the ranking and the estimate as we will be plunged in darkness about the actual sales prospect of an anime. The more uncertainty the less we can talk about analysis instead of pure speculation.On the bright side, if this Crime Edge thing is just a troll, it could be fun in the future trying to figure out which show is the troll ranking show of the season. |
symbvJun 27, 2013 11:56 AM
| So MAL finally starts locking news threads that are only a few weeks old? I wonder where was the announcement of this change? Or we are seeing yet another case of changes made that impacted users but not communicated to them? I wonder how long people would put up with this. As much as I have a bunch of information to share about anime announced recently I cannot share it in news board, and the anime series is too disorganized and chaotic to share information except with people already interested in the particular series. |
jmal said: Honestly I think Crime Edge only selling ~300 copies is probably more amazing to me than the wild overestimation. I mean no, I definitely didn't expect it to sell much but it takes a downright magical kind of disaster to flop that hard these days. Only a handful of shows a year fail to hit the 1k mark. Granted it still outsold Arata Kangatari. I guess here's that. Or did it? Arata Kangatari is a very DVD-heavy title, and the requirement to rank on DVD is 429, which is thus a fair bit higher than Crime Edge's sales. |
| There is no such thing as shit taste. Only idiots who think everyone should have the same taste as they do. |
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