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can humanity or our descendants achieve at least type 1 civilization? kardashev scale

Poll: humanity or our descendants will achieve


#1
Aug 15, 9:52 PM
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so according to scientists we are at type 0 civilization right now and if you heard about this new hypothesis called the vulnerable world hypothesis is says that we can never reach type 1 civilization since humanity will likely destory itself due to technological progress making weapons of mass destruction easily available like getting cheaply available to the point that even a lone terrorist can make some in the near future and that may end humanity, this vulnerable world hypothesis is like the answer to the fermi paradox too

but how about you, is there any faith in humanity for the future? if so what good solutions you can think of for us to not kill ourselves until we become unkillable beings like those type 2 civilizations they say
 
#2
Aug 15, 9:59 PM

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Doubt it, we humans are pretty dumb. We'll probably destroy ourselves or get wiped out some other way long before even reaching type 1.




 
#3
Aug 15, 10:00 PM
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India almost wiped out the international space station, we're gonna have kessler syndrome when worse nutjobs get elected to own the globalists.
 
#4
Aug 15, 10:05 PM

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I don't think anything higher than type 2 civilization in the scale is technically possible. I have my doubts about type 3, but 4 and 5 are definitely not according to our current understanding.

Short answer to your question - yes. The question that is left is what are the odds.
Modified by 149597871, Aug 15, 10:08 PM
 
#5
Aug 15, 10:11 PM
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149597871 said:

Short answer to your question - yes. The question that is left is what are the odds.


how much chance base on 100 percent rating do you give it? like 80%?
 
#6
Aug 15, 10:20 PM

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Humanity has been around for ages. 200 years ago we didn't have a easy way to destroy ourselves. Now we do. Do the math lol
 
#7
Aug 15, 10:25 PM

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ugmon said:
149597871 said:

Short answer to your question - yes. The question that is left is what are the odds.


how much chance base on 100 percent rating do you give it? like 80%?


That's a hard question, because there are numerous factors including some we might not even be aware of. I'm not an expert, I doubt anyone is but let's take a look at the current state of Earth and our society:

- It's 2 minutes to midnight according to the Doomsday clock which is extremely bad.
- Climate change
- Our civilization and history are filled with violence and war
- Almost 100% of the species that have lived on Earth are now extinct
- There are no inhabitable locations found near Earth for mankind to escape in case our current home is destroyed or becomes uninhabitable.
- Science is the thing we mostly rely on but it's still decades if not centuries away from accomplishing this goal.

If I had to take a guess I would say 0.2% but that's in case some of the above issues are not adequately addressed. However if we take the right measures the chances of success can dramatically increase.

Modified by 149597871, Aug 15, 10:28 PM
 
#8
Aug 15, 10:27 PM
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@149597871

>0.2%

i lol i thought you are being optimistic but then believing in that so small chance is very optimistic too anyway

but ye the fermi paradox is like a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point

Cneq said:
Humanity has been around for ages. 200 years ago we didn't have a easy way to destroy ourselves. Now we do. Do the math lol


air born ebola virus made through CRISPR when?
Modified by ugmon, Aug 15, 10:39 PM
 
#9
Aug 16, 3:24 AM

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At the rate we're going as a civilisation right now, I honestly do think the Fermi paradox would kick in before we reach that kind of level, barring some kind of miracle like extraterrestrial assistance. It has been interesting to read up on some of the proposed extensions to the Kardashev scale though. I find it kind of unlikely that we could get as high as even a Type 1 civilisation without requiring some kind of unaccounted factor, like information, planetary or system mastery. Looking at it purely in terms of energy consumption is a bit reductionist.
 
Aug 16, 4:04 AM

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It could go either way probably, to a stage 1 civilisation at least, but I wouldn't get my hopes up for it.
 
Aug 16, 4:38 AM

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I think it's more likely the environment will melt down and the ozone layer decay, killing us all, before we even get to Mars.
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Aug 16, 4:41 AM

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Any kind of type is too much of a wishful thinking. Earth is on fire, the forests are turning into coal and the sea levels rising and critical thinkers only suggest you to sell your seaside home.
 
Aug 16, 5:08 AM

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Does planet busting mean actually destroying planets to rubble, or just glassing it like Halo or Mass Effect? If it's destroying it to rubble, then probably not. But scorching the entire lithosphere I believe would be possible.
 
Aug 16, 6:27 AM

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From a video that I watched a while ago, I understand that humans didn't even reach one percent of becoming a type 1 civilization, so with all those dumb people you see all around the world, I doubt we'll ever reach at least 5 percent in the next couple of thousand of years. We'll advance more and more, but we'll never reach type 1 civilization, at least not with a state that we're currently in.

Quick edit.

Type 2 or even more??? LMAO, that was a good one. Be glad that we are able to just dream about becoming a type 1 at most.
 
Aug 16, 8:31 AM

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I think type 1 is possible, beyond that I have no idea.

People forget that we're living in one of the most peaceful times in human history right now. The last time a country tried to fully annex another militarily a third of the world united to fight against that country (Desert Storm/Gulf War I) and we've eradicated two diseases (smallpox, rinderpest) completely and we're on the track to eradicating more (polio, Guinea worm, yaws, malaria).
 
Aug 16, 9:04 AM

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Maybe level 1, but higher then that with how things are going I doubt it.

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―Cheshire Cat

 
Aug 16, 9:11 AM

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ugmon said:
we can never reach type 1 civilization since humanity will likely destory itself due to technological progress making weapons of mass destruction easily available like getting cheaply available to the point that even a lone terrorist can make some

I dont't think some lone terrorist can make a weapon of mass distr(a)uction on his own. The materials to do this are fairly good regulated. Also I don't think humankind is not dumb enough to destroy itself using those weapons. Most likely we will hit a wall of the resources available and money needed to build spacecrafts to travel the universe. No company would exist if it did not make any profit. If a company does not see any profit in spacecrafts they will never build it. Thus we might never become type 1 civilization.
 
Aug 16, 9:17 AM

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My take is the most probable and ambitious we might ever achieve, considering the world's situation as a whole surrounding us, would be the first level of civilisation. And that is already encouraging! We're already able to use most of the energy of our own planet, certainly if were the stars to align and our countries on Earth to make a truce, if the fundamentals about terraformations are logical, genuine and made use of, we could probably reach such a civilisation level. Yet it isn't accounting of climate change, and relies heavily on wishful thinking and happenstances. But the question is about the possibility, and I answered with the most probable and ambitious.

The second level seems to me far too ambitious, and impossible given our species' psychology. As many people pointed out before, the Fermi paradox is far more likely, and climate change and nuclear wars seem more earthly potentialities. However, I do trust mankind to be physically, as a species, if given the resources of other planets around Earth, capable of harvesting the energy right from a star, like Dyson spheres and the such. Our offspring might see that day. Hope you fare well, mankind.

[...]
Voyageur si triste, tu suis quelle piste ?

C’est l’ivresse à mort, c’est la noire orgie,
C’est l’amer effort de ton énergie
Vers l’oubli dolent de la voix intime,
C’est le seuil du crime, c’est l’essor sanglant.
[...]

Via dolorosa, Paul Verlaine
 
Aug 16, 9:19 AM

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ugmon said:
due to technological progress making weapons of mass destruction easily available like getting cheaply available to the point that even a lone terrorist can make some in the near future


Can the lone terrorist get past the firearm regulations though?
 
Aug 16, 9:23 AM
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Probably not. But hey, they said we wont have planes and now we do so maybe we can.
Big brother is watching you.


 
Aug 16, 9:25 AM

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What are these "Busters" that you're talking about?

This thread makes no sense.

 
Aug 16, 10:45 AM
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Science deals with observable phenomena. This civilization "type" talk is science fiction, not science. Without demonstrating concrete examples of such things, postulating is pointless.
 
Aug 16, 11:46 AM
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@RandomFriday
@Flevalt

im thinking of weapons of mass destruction like air born ebola virus made via CRISPR for example and not necessarily nukes
 
Aug 16, 12:07 PM

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so option 1 in poll is planet busters.

we cant crack open the outer layer fully yet. but we are getting there.
we will reach level one. and when we do, boom! we extinct ourselves.
 
Aug 16, 1:20 PM

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Why would we want planet busters anyway? What the fuck would we do with one?
 
Aug 16, 1:35 PM
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Rowan_F said:
Why would we want planet busters anyway? What the fuck would we do with one?


when Star Wars happen in the future we need a Death Star lol
 
Aug 16, 1:38 PM

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Rowan_F said:
Why would we want planet busters anyway? What the fuck would we do with one?


I still don't even know what a "planet buster" is supposed to be.

 
Aug 16, 1:40 PM

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Seiya said:
Rowan_F said:
Why would we want planet busters anyway? What the fuck would we do with one?


I still don't even know what a "planet buster" is supposed to be.

Errr... A Death Star apparently haha.
I guess the human race just becomes the bad guys in the future.
 
Aug 16, 3:21 PM

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Rowan_F said:


It's 2 minutes to midnight according to the Doomsday clock which is extremely bad.



the dommsday clock doesn't mean shit, its just the opinion of obviously biased board members.

also they place climate change at the same level as complete nuclear annihilation, which makes it seem like the chance of nuclear annihilation is higher than it actually is.
 
Aug 16, 8:50 PM

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carseatheadrest said:
149597871 said:


It's 2 minutes to midnight according to the Doomsday clock which is extremely bad.



the dommsday clock doesn't mean shit, its just the opinion of obviously biased board members.

also they place climate change at the same level as complete nuclear annihilation, which makes it seem like the chance of nuclear annihilation is higher than it actually is.


oh, I totally agree, extinction due to a nuclear disaster is very different from extinction caused by a superbug or the lack of clean water/food supplies. Also mankind has never started a war for the sake of resources in past and now that we all have nukes it is safe to say that there will be only peace even if let's say a country the size of China happens to run out of clean water by 2030. These scientists have to be biased.
 
Aug 18, 5:57 PM

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Kardashev had big dreams but maybe not a big enough reality.
"Few, but ripe." - C.F. Gauss
 
Aug 18, 6:05 PM

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149597871 said:
- Science is the thing we mostly rely on but it's still decades if not centuries away from accomplishing this goal.

Just like how electricity and computers accelerated our technological progress far faster than without, all we need is another such discovery/invention.
 
Aug 19, 11:12 AM

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Humanity will probably cannibalize itself before then.
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Aug 19, 11:33 AM

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Grey-Zone said:
149597871 said:
- Science is the thing we mostly rely on but it's still decades if not centuries away from accomplishing this goal.

Just like how electricity and computers accelerated our technological progress far faster than without, all we need is another such discovery/invention.


Well, I checked a few sources and although nobody can say for sure when exactly we will reach type 1 civilization the majority of them seem to agree with my prediction. It will probably be at some point in 22th century, in the beginning if we are lucky.

I feel that there is an already determined "pace" for our technological progress which is the saddest part actually. Even if we make some groundbreaking discovery it might not be properly utilized until it feels right for some people to do so. It will be an extremely tough run to 2100 and mankind will probably find itself on the verge of extinction multiple times during that period. Maybe if we survive the first catastrophe some people will actually wake up, who knows.

Pretty dark topic.
 
Aug 19, 11:41 AM

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I think the whole Kardashev scale is an outdated model to begin with, and a relic of the cold war era mindset. I don't think civilizations would multiply endlessly like some kind of a virus, consuming the planet, then the solar system (covering the whole star in a Dyson sphere/swarm), followed by the entire galaxy, and then the fucking universe itself. At some point, they will consider population control and go for efficiency over sheer quantity. And by then, we might not even remain biological, so there won't be much need to reproduce that often, since we will be pretty much immortal, whether it's our physical bodies or our consciousness (by storing the data). So, less people will require less energy. Even if we need the energy for building megastructures and stuff, we'll probably find better ways to gather energy, like mining dark matter, or dark energy itself, than relying on solar energy forever.

And why would any civilization wait till they achieve the "type 1" level and only then begin work on becoming type 2? We are already thinking about colonizing Mars, and we will probably achieve it within the next 50 years. We'll probably become "type 2" well before the fabled type 1, and even that won't happen entirely. By the time we're halfway through, we will have already sent colony ships to nearby star systems.

But either way, at this point, we're probably at the most critical point in our civilization. If we manage to not kill ourselves now and successfully colonize our solar system, then the universe is our "oyster".
 
Aug 19, 12:00 PM
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found this yesterday

micro and macro scale of energy use, macro scale is the kardashev scale, while micro is quantum physics subatomic energy like nuclear fusion



EndlessMaria said:
Humanity will probably cannibalize itself before then.


so zombie apocalypse coming with the help of CRISPR i guess

@FloodBasalt

the kardashev scale does not mean scale in population too though

 
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