| Disclaimer- I've worked as a financial analyst, and have done research into (and have a degree in) economics, but I am very unfamiliar with the core data of the anime industry. So it could (and probably will) be that a lot of my assumptions are completely wrong, making my conclusions wrong, too. Then again, according to Feynman, it's only fun to talk/write about things you don't know about, right? Focus- The first thing to recognize about the anime industry nowadays is that it's similar to the movie industry, except even more extreme in terms of revenue. 90 plus percent of anime either lose money or fail to make a profit. Only about 10-15 series a year, at the most, manage to make a significant amount of money in terms of DVD sales, advertisements, etc. Of course, there is also the money they gain with an anime series increasing sales of a manga, game, or related property, which we'll discuss later. In other words, the risk is extreme, and thus, the majority of effort is spent on finding the next big hit. This major hit is determined not by the studios themselves, obviously, but rather what people WANT to see. So let's examine that, shall we? For virtually the entire part of the 70's and 80's, anime was simply the Japanese version of American Saturday morning cartoons. The megahit shonen had giant, larger than life heroes, whether humorous or serious, with series like Tiger Mask, Kinnikuman, and Hokuto No Ken, or determined young children fighting with giant, larger than life mechs or powers, like the Gundam series or Cyborg 009. There was also some shoujo for the little girls with things like "The Rose of Versailles". All of this was popular and did extremely well. With a few exceptions, like the 1983 Golgo film, or Mad Bull, anime was strictly for kids back then, not adults. Things started to marginally change in the late 80s and early 90s. As the first big generation that had grown up watching anime matured, so did the content. It was still mainly shonen, but more bloody, dark, with more ammoral protagonists. Things like Baoh, Jojo's Bizarre Adventure, Violence Jack, and other similarly themed OVAs started appearing around this time. Here's where I make some assumptions; since the period of these violent OVAs lasted well into the mid 1990s, I assume they did reasonably well financially. Unfortunately, there is nothing like www.boxofficemojo.com for anime revenue. At the same time, shonen and shoujo series continued to dominate, with things like Dragonball or Sailor Moon. At this point, anime was still very closely related to the most popular manga, and the viewership was the same, except much younger. Eventually, the trend would lead to 1998, the year when Cowboy Bebop and Berserk were released, the first two full-length anime series with an adult audience in mind. Also, Satoshi Kon started making more realistic, imaginative films during this period, counteracting the insipid idiocy of Miyazaki corporation. At this point, one should be optimistic, right? An animation style geared towards more mature, adult thinkers, right? Well, not quite. Turns out, many young anime viewers who continued to watch it as they grew older became basement-dwelling losers who wished to avoid the real world, and sought refuge in their adolescent anime. They also sought to avoid real Japanese girls, and instead, go for the animated ones. Obviously, a realistically-drawn girl like a Mamiya, or more recently, a Michiko would remind them too strongly of the real-life girls that had rejected them. So instead, they went for small bodied, giant eye, no noses 8 year-old girls, the type that look nothing like the ones in real life. Meanwhile, the other portion of older anime fans, who were more normal, gainfully employed, and had moderate success in life, had either moved on to other mediums of expression, OR had simply graduated to reading seinen manga. So what did this do? It fractured the manga and anime audiences from one another, and led to a more schitzophrenic and unusual anime series landscape in the 2000s. On the one hand, you had outstanding original masterpieces like Samurai Champloo, the Cowboy Bebop movie, Kaiji, Kaiba, Detroit Metal City, Tokyo Godfathers, Texhnolyze, Monster, etc, etc. Problem is, most of them did very poorly commercially. Many failed to even sell 800 DVDs, when one needed 5,000 merely to break even. On the other hand, the popular stuff were series based on erotic computer games with the disgusting female aesthetic mentioned above, or similarly insipid "romance/rape" fantasies, or equally appalling, a series of "slice of life" school romantic comedies where nothing seemed to happen at all. And sadly, it was these last ones which eventually won the revenue war in the 2000s. They were the huge moneymakers. Sure, shounen like One Piece, Bleach, and Naruto continued to make huge profits, as well as some of the older revival material, but at least half of the market had been carved up by this new form of brain-rot. Not surprisingly, 2009 marked a year where no company, especially during the economic depression, felt like greenlighting a seinen-inspired series. (Part 2 possibly coming up) |
| You need to watch Welcome to the NHK. After reading this, I think you'd get a kick out of it. An interesting read, if unconvincing. It seems like your conclusions are built backwards from the current state of affairs, rather than forward, since (as you say) you don't have the hard data to build a step-by-step analysis. Perhaps I could offer a few alternate theories. I wouldn't blame the failure of the seinen demographic in anime on socially inept otaku. I think a more simple explanation would be that adults are more busy than younger demographics. It takes a much larger time investment to watch an anime than to read a manga of a similar length. Additionally, manga is more portable, does not have to be watched on a fixed schedule, and is easier to partake in public (such as on a train, or waiting in a line). This is why we see so few successful anime targeted at adults, despite the fact that there is an abundance of competent seinen manga. Personally I have no problem with the "moe" aesthetic. I don't prefer it, but I don't see it as a detraction either - it's just one kind of stylization that happens to be popular at the moment. However, I do feel annoyed by how successful moe-fest shows tend to be regardless of quality. Production studios abuse the hell out of the trend, and consequently we get a massive shit-pile of such series produced every season. It's not the art style itself that causes shows to be bad - it's the fact that anime watchers seem not to care as much about quality as long as there are "cute" characters. I can't say I'm too optimistic about the future of anime. I've been attracted to fewer and fewer series each season, and at this point I'm watching nothing that's currently airing. |
naikou said: You need to watch Welcome to the NHK. After reading this, I think you'd get a kick out of it. An interesting read, if unconvincing. It seems like your conclusions are built backwards from the current state of affairs, rather than forward, since (as you say) you don't have the hard data to build a step-by-step analysis. Perhaps I could offer a few alternate theories. I wouldn't blame the failure of the seinen demographic in anime on socially inept otaku. I think a more simple explanation would be that adults are more busy than younger demographics. It takes a much larger time investment to watch an anime than to read a manga of a similar length. Additionally, manga is more portable, does not have to be watched on a fixed schedule, and is easier to partake in public (such as on a train, or waiting in a line). This is why we see so few successful anime targeted at adults, despite the fact that there is an abundance of competent seinen manga. There's some general truth to what you wrote. That being said, I'm completely unconvinced by this explanation, too. Think about what you're arguing; if it what you write is true, ANY adult-oriented television show, either in Japan or the United States, would be a flop because its target audience is too busy. Yet, we know from the US that nothing could be further from the truth. Shows like "Dexter", "True Blood", "The Sopranos", "The Wire", etc, etc. are wildly popular in the United States, and in fact, greatly trump any younger-oriented television program. Busy or not, working adults still have enough time to watch quality television shows. I see what you're saying with manga being the exact same thing except more expedient, but then again, not every seinen-influenced anime is derived from a comic. Some are completely original. And they are also doing miserably. Furthermore, your conclusions don't work that great when applied to manga; seinen manga isn't doing well, although admittedly it's not nearly dead, like seinen-influenced anime is. Clearly, there's a lot more going on than the adult target audience being too busy to watch a 20 minute show every week. Even the most productive, busy people I know spend that much a week on Youtube alone. naikou said: Personally I have no problem with the "moe" aesthetic. I don't prefer it, but I don't see it as a detraction either - it's just one kind of stylization that happens to be popular at the moment. However, I do feel annoyed by how successful moe-fest shows tend to be regardless of quality. Production studios abuse the hell out of the trend, and consequently we get a massive shit-pile of such series produced every season. It's not the art style itself that causes shows to be bad - it's the fact that anime watchers seem not to care as much about quality as long as there are "cute" characters. Well, those observations were clearly my personal bias. I just find the "moe" artistic aesthetic to be horrifyingly ugly, and I have a difficult time taking it seriously. Unfortunately, there haven't been many anime whose story and overall quality have proven me wrong. naikou said: I can't say I'm too optimistic about the future of anime. I've been attracted to fewer and fewer series each season, and at this point I'm watching nothing that's currently airing. It won't last forever, though. The glut of such shows will ultimately kill themselves, and the incredible success of Sengoku Basara is moderately encouraging. |
YoungVagabondDec 15, 2009 8:43 PM
YoungVagabond said: True, but anime has a problem that none of those shows you mentioned have - the stigma of being "for children" left over from its early days. Much like video games, anime is not typically viewed as an acceptable adult hobby, and probably will not be for one or two more generations.Think about what you're arguing; if it what you write is true, ANY adult-oriented television show, either in Japan or the United States, would be a flop because its target audience is too busy. Yet, we know from the US that nothing could be further from the truth. Shows like "Dexter", "True Blood", "The Sopranos", "The Wire", etc, etc. are wildly popular in the United States, and in fact, greatly trump any younger-oriented television program. Busy or not, working adults still have enough time to watch quality television shows. Sure, the average adult might be okay with catching an anime on TV once in a while, perhaps even weekly if their schedule permits. But are they going to be able to discuss it with their peers? Watch it with friends? What about buying the DVD's? I suspect that it would be a bit embarrassing for a thirty-something to go into a store and browse the anime section. Manga is easier to be discreet with and more disposable. And as you said, seinen manga isn't exactly booming at the moment. |
| Heh, did you catch my edit above? I expanded my reasoning to do your view more justice. naikou said: True, but anime has a problem that none of those shows you mentioned have - the stigma of being "for children" left over from its early days. Much like video games, anime is not typically viewed as an acceptable adult hobby, and probably will not be for one or two more generations. Good point, but in the late 90s and early 2000s, things were changing for the better in that regard. Anime was becoming more mature and more accepted for adults...much like video games were, actually. And then, as a result of suddenly poor sales for more mature series, and strong ones for the Attack of the Lantern Eyed Aliens, things regressed to a level worse than the mid 90s. Why? Can it be related to successful live action movies being based off childrens' cartoons/books/cereals/toys, and also being greatly dumbed down during the same period? By the way dude, I think video games have already long gotten over the barrier of being considered nerdy or for children. Damn near every male 45 years or under plays them, regardless of how cool, rich, or successful with women, and there's zero shame in discussing Modern Warfare 2, Bioshock, God of War, etc. Hell, Andy Murray broke up with his girlfriend because she couldn't handle him playing Call of Duty all the time. naikou said: What about buying the DVD's? I suspect that it would be a bit embarrassing for a thirty-something to go into a store and browse the anime section. While it's true that I would rather have been caught dead than visit the anime section of a store when I was 16, let alone now, this is what makes Amazon so awesome. "Vampire Hunter D Bloodlust" selected and ordered! |
YoungVagabond said: I don't think I ever saw the unedited version, so it's all cool.Heh, did you catch my edit above? I expanded my reasoning to do your view more justice. YoungVagabond said: The kind of series being tossed about during that time period had a broader appeal than just adults. While true that Bebop, Berserk, Evangelion all had more mature themes than previous anime, they are the kind of series that attract attention from the mid to high adolescent crowd, where you're still young enough to watch anime from a social standpoint.Good point, but in the late 90s and early 2000s, things were changing for the better in that regard. Anime was becoming more mature and more accepted for adults...much like video games were, actually. When you start getting into slower, highly mature anime which have little cross-appeal from the shounen demographic, sales suffer. Think of Monster, Haibane Renmei, Kaiba, Dennou Coil, Serial Experiments Lain, etc, etc. I can't think of a single financially successful series in this category from the past decade. Rather than a regression of maturity, I don't think such mature anime have ever caught on. The 2000's were simply the first experiments into this territory, and those experiments failed. YoungVagabond said: Debatable, but I'll give you that they're much further along than anime (both in terms of being socially acceptable, and in terms of actual mature content).By the way dude, I think video games have already long gotten over the barrier of being considered nerdy or for children. Damn near every male 45 years or under plays them, regardless of how cool, rich, or successful with women, and there's zero shame in discussing Modern Warfare 2, Bioshock, God of War, etc. |
naikou said: When you start getting into slower, highly mature anime which have little cross-appeal from the shounen demographic, sales suffer. Think of Monster, Haibane Renmei, Kaiba, Dennou Coil, Serial Experiments Lain, etc, etc. I can't think of a single financially successful series in this category from the past decade. Yes, perhaps. You're drawing an interesting distinction that I haven't, since personally, Monster, Kaiba, etc. are in the same mental category as Berskerk and Cowboy Bebop, and I would have also appreciated the former at a young age. You might well be correct about how others perceive it, though. naikou said: Rather than a regression of maturity, I don't think such mature anime have ever caught on. The 2000's were simply the first experiments into this territory, and those experiments failed. Do you think they will ever succeed? naikou said: Debatable, but I'll give you that they're much further along than anime (both in terms of being socially acceptable, and in terms of actual mature content). Off-topic again, but I'm amazed you consider this debatable. It's clear as day. Video games are as mainstream and acceptable now as live action films are. In fact, the biggest games make even more money, and are played by almost as many people as movies are watched by. I haven't heard of or seen someone being mocked for playing video games in years. I'm curious what experience makes you have doubts. |
YoungVagabondDec 16, 2009 1:31 AM
YoungVagabond said: They also sought to avoid real Japanese girls, and instead, go for the animated ones. Obviously, a realistically-drawn girl like a Mamiya, or more recently, a Michiko would remind them too strongly of the real-life girls that had rejected them. Michiko? In Japan? Sounds as unlikely as someone looking like Shana. For that matter, I don't think that kind of supermodel æsthetic is any more realistic than is moemoe girls. The proportions are just off on other places than the face. The only anime with going-on-realistic Japanese girls I can think of would be Sayonara Zetsubou Sensei (granted, cartoonish). Which does sell rather well, as far as I can tell. YoungVagabond said: Not surprisingly, 2009 marked a year where no company, especially during the economic depression, felt like greenlighting a seinen-inspired series. Aoi Bungaku, Trapeze, Eden of the East, Tokyo Magnitude 8.0, Cross Game (from what I've heard). Some of them even did very well. I have seen too few old shows to tell whether things have gone downhill or not (even though they by definition have, as LoGH is over). I think it's unlikely. If however one'd accept that anime as of now is often shitty - not a too unreasonable assumption - I think rather than in the audience, the problem lies with the companies. Animators get paid ridiculously low wages, heck, they all are. Royalties go mostly to the parent company or perhaps the original creator, the studio itself sees little of that. It's quite impressive that under such circumstances they make much anything at all. The moe æsthetic works for a few reasons; 1) It is vaguely abstract, so it allows for quite some degree of artistic expression. This seems to be forgotten by everyone except for Sinbou, and he's busy fiddling up new backgrounds with Photoshop and what he just found in a trashcan. 2) It is cute. Everyone likes cute things. Almost. 3) It's easy to do it. Not that there are no shining examples of great design and care (hallo KyoAni), but you don't have to exert yourself to make the designs well distinguishable and quick to draw (I'm thinking here of the many and atrocious harem animu which likely sell nothing, like sola or Natsuiro no Sunadokei). This is the important part. What's easy to draw takes little time to draw, which means you can have fewer animators, and they can do less. But I'd be hard pressed to say it's anything recent. Tenchi Muyo began way back in '92. First Ah! My Goddess is '93. Eyes may have grown and the style of deformations gone towards the cutsier rather than the more comically expressive back then, but the core's the same. Not sure how large their precursors were, if any, but there's the start of darkness at the very latest. Either way, more anime is made now than ever before, so if it's dying, it's from obesity. |
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Kaiserpingvin said: Michiko? In Japan? Sounds as unlikely as someone looking like Shana. Okay, not the clearest or best example on my part. In the LA area, there are lots of mixed race girls who look similar to her, right down to the proportions of the breast and ass. In Japan, you're right; her look is very unusual and exotic. That being said, in terms of overall look and personality, she reminds geeky basement dwellers a little too strongly of the real life brand, whether here or in Japan. Just because you dress up an arrogant, beautiful Tokyo party girl with larger breasts and darker skin, she's still recognizable underneath, no? The very negative reactions to her on this site largely confirm this, too. If that's not clear, just dismiss her, and think about what a Mamiya looks like, or any of the girls in Golgo 13 or Cowboy Bebop. And how they act. (Courageously, independently, like real people...not slave dolls that look disturbingly like little children) Kaiserpingvin said: For that matter, I don't think that kind of supermodel æsthetic is any more realistic than is moemoe girls. The proportions are just off on other places than the face. It's an idealized form, but it nevertheless strives to replicate the actual female body. Moe, on the other hand, is something completely and purposefully different than a standard woman's form. You might as well criticize Greco-Roman statues for "not being any more realistic than Picasso!" just because there weren't many Greeks with the muscles, perfect body symmetry, and proportions of their marble and bronze art creations. The goal is completely different in each case. Kaiserpingvin said: Aoi Bungaku, Trapeze, Eden of the East, Tokyo Magnitude 8.0, Cross Game (from what I've heard). Some of them even did very well. Cross Game is the clearest example of shounen imaginable. Not only is it listed as such on here and everywhere else, but its author, Mitsuru, is considered one of the great shounen masters. He also had a hit shounen baseball manga transferred into a really popular anime in the 80s, so you're only showing that anime has regressed 20+ years. Not a comforting thought. While slightly more debatable, Higashi no Eden and Tokyo Magnitude 8.0 are both essentially slightly more thoughtful shounen. I haven't watched Aoi Bungaku at all, but every single manga artist/author mentioned on that page is what? You guessed it....a shounen writer. So the only thing you listed above that isn't a shounen, but seinen influenced is Trapeze. And, not surprisingly, it's doing very poorly commercially. Kaiserpingvin said: I have seen too few old shows to tell whether things have gone downhill or not (even though they by definition have, as LoGH is over). I think it's unlikely. See, this isn't what I was arguing at all. I consider the golden age of anime from 1998-2005. In my first post, I was detailing how things steadily IMPROVED from the early 70s all the way to the early to mid 2000s, only to take a dramatic nosedive during the last five years. Kaiserpingvin said: 2) It is cute. Everyone likes cute things. Almost. That's not a reason; that's only your own personal opinion. Myself and roughly half the people on this site would strongly disagree with this. Kaiserpingvin said: But I'd be hard pressed to say it's anything recent. Tenchi Muyo began way back in '92. First Ah! My Goddess is '93. Eyes may have grown and the style of deformations gone towards the cutsier rather than the more comically expressive back then, but the core's the same. Not sure how large their precursors were, if any, but there's the start of darkness at the very latest. Oh, this aesthetic started LONG before the early 90s. It was firmly established by the mid to late eighties from what I've seen/read. But here's the thing...its market share/popularity was very low back then. Only weird sexual deviants liked the style at first (seriously, that's how it's actually described), and it was completely distinct from shoujo. It became more popular and partly blended in with that style in the 90s, but didn't really make a breakthrough until the early to mid 2000s. |
YoungVagabond said: I wouldn't have been able to enjoy Monster or Kaiba until High School, and I'd consider myself an early bloomer in that regard. All of my sophomore year, I heard about how terrible The Grapes of Wrathwas, and how every junior hated reading it. Much to my surprise, it was the best book we read all year - at least twice as good as The Count of Monte Cristo, which was the class favorite.Yes, perhaps. You're drawing an interesting distinction that I haven't, since personally, Monster, Kaiba, etc. are in the same mental category as Berskerk and Cowboy Bebop, and I would have also appreciated the former at a young age. You might well be correct about how others perceive it, though. Judging by what I remember about things you've said in the past, you might have developed that kind of capacity even younger. But if you want more evidence, look at fans of Berserk on this site. I think you'll find that many of the younger ones do not enjoy anime of similar maturity to Berserk, but with slower pacing (Texhnolyze) or a lower body count (Mushishi). Instead you'll find their favorites list filled with things like Jo Jo's Bizarre Adventure, Bleach, Yu Yu Hakusho, and One Piece... as well as Cowboy Bebop and Samurai Champloo. YoungVagabond said: Eventually.Do you think they will ever succeed? Right now it's sort of a catch-22. In order for mature anime to succeed, there needs to be mature anime fans. But in order to get more fans, there needs to be more mature anime. Paradigm shifts of this sort are usually slow. Mobile Suit Gundam was a failure during its first run. So was Cowboy Bebop. Let's hope for more anime directors who are willing to forgo safe profits for the sake of progressing the medium. YoungVagabond said: I don't think so. For instance, I wouldn't have any problems discussing live action films with formal company during dinner, but I probably would not try to start a discussion about the merits of Uncharted 2, or the newest mario game. I would imagine that if I did, I would look pretty damn nerdy.Video games are as mainstream and acceptable now as live action films are. In fact, the biggest games make even more money, and are played by almost as many people as movies are watched by. I haven't heard of or seen someone being mocked for playing video games in years. I'm curious what experience makes you have doubts. Then again, this might have something to do with our locations. You've got Los Angeles, while I've got the conservative capital of the west, Utah. |
naikou said: I wouldn't have been able to enjoy Monster or Kaiba until High School, and I'd consider myself an early bloomer in that regard. All of my sophomore year, I heard about how terrible The Grapes of Wrathwas, and how every junior hated reading it. Much to my surprise, it was the best book we read all year - at least twice as good as The Count of Monte Cristo, which was the class favorite. Judging by what I remember about things you've said in the past, you might have developed that kind of capacity even younger. But if you want more evidence, look at fans of Berserk on this site. I think you'll find that many of the younger ones do not enjoy anime of similar maturity to Berserk, but with slower pacing (Texhnolyze) or a lower body count (Mushishi). Instead you'll find their favorites list filled with things like Jo Jo's Bizarre Adventure, Bleach, Yu Yu Hakusho, and One Piece... as well as Cowboy Bebop and Samurai Champloo. This is where I really wish we had the numbers; how did Samurai Champloo do in terms of DVD sales? It was obviously nowhere near as successful as Bleach or One Piece or even Cowboy Bebop (the latter of which is worse), but was it still successful? Was it around the same level as Yu Yu Hakusho? naikou said: Paradigm shifts of this sort are usually slow. Mobile Suit Gundam was a failure during its first run. So was Cowboy Bebop. Really? Not that I doubt you, but what's the source for that last one? At what point did it become a hit? naikou said: Let's hope for more anime directors who are willing to forgo safe profits for the sake of progressing the medium. Lots of directors are willing to do that. It's the production companies going out of business that aren't as gung ho about it. naikou said: I don't think so. For instance, I wouldn't have any problems discussing live action films with formal company during dinner, but I probably would not try to start a discussion about the merits of Uncharted 2, or the newest mario game. I would imagine that if I did, I would look pretty damn nerdy. Would the "formal company" include old people who don't use computers and have never played a video game in their lives? I don't know about Mario, but if I had people over that was around the same age as me, even if they were all working professionals, and I was like "Hey man, you played the new Uncharted 2 game?", no one would consider it nerdy, and I'd get a decent amount of response. naikou said: Then again, this might have something to do with our locations. You've got Los Angeles, while I've got the conservative capital of the west, Utah. Weren't you living in Pennsylvania? And I don't really know, man; just because a place is conservative, it doesn't mean they dislike video games. |
YoungVagabond said: I've heard that the first airing of Bebop was abandoned halfway through due to lack of popularity. A quick look over wikipedia seems to confirm this, but there might have been other factors involved, such as "gratuitous violence" apparently:naikou said: Paradigm shifts of this sort are usually slow. Mobile Suit Gundam was a failure during its first run. So was Cowboy Bebop. Really? Not that I doubt you, but what's the source for that last one? At what point did it become a hit? wiki said: Cowboy Bebop almost did not appear on Japanese broadcast television due to its depictions of gratuitous violence. It was first sent to TV Tokyo, one of the main broadcasters of anime in Japan. The show had an aborted first run from 3 April 1998, until 19 June 1998, on TV Tokyo, broadcasting only episodes 2, 3, 7 to 15, and 18. It appears that it caught on during its second run, over a year later. YoungVagabond said: No. Did I lie about that at some point, or something?Weren't you living in Pennsylvania? YoungVagabond said: Indeed, didn't mean to come off all conservative bashing there. However, I do find that folks around here tend to be rather techno-phobic, including a dislike of video games. Not so much people my age, but 30+, definitely.And I don't really know, man; just because a place is conservative, it doesn't mean they dislike video games. |
naikou said: YoungVagabond said: I've heard that the first airing of Bebop was abandoned halfway through due to lack of popularity. A quick look over wikipedia seems to confirm this, but there might have been other factors involved, such as "gratuitous violence" apparently:naikou said: Paradigm shifts of this sort are usually slow. Mobile Suit Gundam was a failure during its first run. So was Cowboy Bebop. Really? Not that I doubt you, but what's the source for that last one? At what point did it become a hit? wiki said: Cowboy Bebop almost did not appear on Japanese broadcast television due to its depictions of gratuitous violence. It was first sent to TV Tokyo, one of the main broadcasters of anime in Japan. The show had an aborted first run from 3 April 1998, until 19 June 1998, on TV Tokyo, broadcasting only episodes 2, 3, 7 to 15, and 18. I actually know what you're talking about. The violence was definitely a huge part for why only half the episodes were aired. Once individual ones were cut out, the creators decided on a marketing plan for the DVDs that would only show half the total. This indicates nothing about its actual popularity during its first run, however, except that it found enough of an audience to succeed in spite of those setbacks. naikou said: No. Did I lie about that at some point, or something? Wasn't it in your profile? At any rate...how bout them Jazz? 15-10 as of tonight! naikou said: Indeed, didn't mean to come off all conservative bashing there. However, I do find that folks around here tend to be rather techno-phobic, including a dislike of video games. Not so much people my age, but 30+, definitely. There's a fairly large Asian and black population in both LA and the Bay Area (both groups that tend to love video games), as well as a large arcade culture, and lots of people who work in technical fields, so with the exception of the really old, no one looks down upon games here. I wonder if Joseph Smith would have approved? |
YoungVagabond said: Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure I first heard about Bebop's failure from a post by Cihan (or whatever his name is now). Since he's a much bigger fan of the series than I am, I just assumed he knew what he was talking about. Now I'm not so sure.I actually know what you're talking about. The violence was definitely a huge part for why only half the episodes were aired. Once individual ones were cut out, the creators decided on a marketing plan for the DVDs that would only show half the total. This indicates nothing about its actual popularity during its first run, however, except that it found enough of an audience to succeed in spite of those setbacks. At least I think I heard it from him. YoungVagabond said: Maybe so, but we're 1-1 against them Lakers. :-PWasn't it in your profile? At any rate...how bout them Jazz? 15-10 as of tonight! YoungVagabond said: last I checked mormons didn't have anything against video games, but I wouldn't be surprised.I wonder if Joseph Smith would have approved? |
naikou said: Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure I first heard about Bebop's failure from a post by Cihan (or whatever his name is now). Since he's a much bigger fan of the series than I am, I just assumed he knew what he was talking about. Now I'm not so sure. At least I think I heard it from him. We should invite him. Considering it's open to everyone, there's even a marginal chance he might join. naikou said: Maybe so, but we're 1-1 against them Lakers. :-P Dude, I've been a hardcore Jazz fan since 1998. I meant that 15-10 was a good record, all things considered. With last year's disappointments, this year's injuries, and an awful 4-6 start, 5th in the West isn't a bad place to be right now. naikou said: last I checked mormons didn't have anything against video games, but I wouldn't be surprised. I've never lived in Utah, but thinking about it, the nerd/gaming culture probably hasn't been co-opted into the mainstream there like it has in the Bay Area or Los Angeles. |
| It's silly to assume that no good series have been released this year. What I consider sucessful Seinen titles, you'd have to consider at the very least Aoi Bungaku (albeit, the second arc animated by the artist for Bleach was incredibly bad) and Trapeze, with further "shonenish" titles like Bakemonogatari or the conclusion of the Kara no Kyoukai story providing further good entertainment. Which brings me to a further point. Both Bakemonogatari and Kara No Kyoukai were highly sucessfull (Bakemonogatari has outsold "moeblob" titles like K-ON and Haruhi Suzumiya); now although they aren't perhaps as great as other titles you mentioned in terms of contents and themes discussed (take Texhnolyze for example), they certainly aren't bad per se either. Perhaps Bakemonogatari isn't great story wise, but it certainly provides for a somewhat unique way of animation and stylistic presentation, along the same lines of Gankutsuo. So to say that anime is slowly dying (in terms of originality) because of otaku preferences in Japan would be an overstatement. Otaku, how obsessed they may be with K-ON, still have taste, otherwise the aforementioned titles would sell as well as they did. Furthermore, although you might argue that they're not anything compared to " great" Seinen titles, you have to admit that at the very least, they're original, meaning that your judgement on Otaku is somewhat off. |
Sohei said: It's silly to assume that no good series have been released this year. It's also silly to assume what people write/think without actually reading their posts, since nowhere did I write this. Sohei said: What I consider sucessful Seinen titles, you'd have to consider at the very least Aoi Bungaku (albeit, the second arc animated by the artist for Bleach was incredibly bad) and Trapeze, with further "shonenish" titles like Bakemonogatari or the conclusion of the Kara no Kyoukai story providing further good entertainment. Once again, DID YOU BOTHER READING THIS TOPIC? We've already been over why Aoi Bungaku is not seinen; namely, each artist/creator involved in it is a shonen manga author. Bleach IS a shounen. Prince of Tennis IS a shounen. Death Note, believe it or not, IS a shounen. And yes, Bakemonogatari and KnK are also shounen, so they have zero relevance to the topic of discussion; seinen-influenced works. Sohei said: Which brings me to a further point. Both Bakemonogatari and Kara No Kyoukai were highly sucessfull Shounen will ALWAYS be highly successful. It's what Japanese male children watch. It's completely besides the point of my original post, which was about older, seinen-themed works. Look, it's annoying when after writing something, the other person refuses to actually read it, but still wants to argue with you, anyways. Sohei said: So to say that anime is slowly dying (in terms of originality) because of otaku preferences in Japan would be an overstatement. It was a provocative title meant to get people to read the topic. If, instead of immediately firing off an angry reply, you had even casually glanced over it, you would have noted my real argument was something completely different; namely, that anime, which hit its peak from 1998-2005, has REGRESSED backwards in terms of quality in the last 5 years, overall. Sohei said: Otaku, how obsessed they may be with K-ON, still have taste, otherwise the aforementioned titles would sell as well as they did. Haha, that's hilarious. I don't care to waste my time or energy debating the intelligence/taste level of fatass loser Japanese otaku, but both your claim and the justification is hilarious. You know who it was that bought the most DVDs of Bakemonagatari and KnK? CHILDREN. Not older otaku, but kids. That's the nature of shounen. |
| Seeing as you trolled your way through that, I might as well do the same. YoungVagabond said: It's also silly to assume what people write/think without actually reading their posts, since nowhere did I write this. Umm, yes you did; unless i'm mistaken and you don't view seinen as intellectually superior to shonen, this is exactly what you said: YoungVagabond said: Not surprisingly, 2009 marked a year where no company, especially during the economic depression, felt like greenlighting a seinen-inspired series. And even pointed out a view helpful "seinen-inspired" anime released this year to disporve your point! But you pointed out some silly argument, namely that anything done by a shonen mangaka is ultimately a shonen manga/anime. Sorry, but that's just complete bullocks. Are you saying that if Kentaro Miura or Hiroki Endo produced the most-fanservice laden and shallow anime, aimed directly at teenagers, that it wouldn't be classified as shonen because the mangaka are classfied as "seinen" mangaka? Because what you just said certainly points to that. Now to get to Bakemonogatari or Kara no Kyoukai (specifically said the last movie of the anthology, as that is the one relevant to discussion here). I assume that you've seen both, otherwise you wouldn't be able to judge (the same should be said of Aoi Bungaku, but i'll be nice and not hit you further for it) wherever it's a shonen or seinen series. Just to be clear on definitions here, you agree with me that shonen is anything targeted at the >18 age group (of course, then the border is somewhere at 12 differntiating shonen from children's anime) and seinen anything over? So please, tell me, what elements do those two shows have that make it a shonen and not a seinen? I'll admit that perhaps Bakemonogatari doesn't have the strong plot that some seinen have, but it doesn't have the same distinct features that a shonen has either, meaning i'd classify it as something of an "inbetweener". As for KnK, it's about as shonen as Neon Genesis Evangelion is, if not less; And NGE certainly wasn't (originally) aimed at 12-18 year olds. As for you stating what Japanese children watch, i'd have to disagree there too, from my experiences in Japan. Perhaps 17-18 year olds will watch series like the above mentioned, but must Japanese children will go no further than One Piece, Bleach et al. Which brings me to the point that they were primarily aimed at the 18, to say, 21 age group, seinen by definition. However, i'll agree that the above mentioned aren't as purely seinen as epitomizing titles of that genre. Talking about age groups, it's quite ignorant for someone who uses "economics" in their title (even with that disclaimer) to say that most DVDs for the above mentioned series have been bought by children. Let me keep this simple; guess who actually has the money to buy DVDs of the above mentioned series? Guess who actually has the money to afford an otaku lifestyle? No, it certainly isn't the 12-18 year old age group. More than likely, its those who have jobs, and perhaps sometimes university students if they have a part time job. I don't know if you've ever been to Japan, but going into Akihabara, where a lot of those DVD sales were probably made, you won't notice too many children. As for the question of regressing in anime over the past few years. Guess what, this isn't GD and " rules' to answering a topic don't necessarily apply. It's not that i didn't want to answer your question (which really wasn't formulated as a question to start with), but simply that I wanted to point out a few mistakes first. Anyway, as for regressing in anime over the past 5 years. Let's see, 5 years ago was 2004.. What seinen titles have been released since then.. off the top of my head; Mushishi, GiTS:SAC (at the very least, second gig), Ergo Proxy, Baccano, Monster, Hellsing, Beck, Detroit Metal City, Mononoke, Samurai Champloo, Genshiken, a lot of Shinkai Makoto's works, Kurozuka and more (i'm out now, but i'm sure that list could continue if i bothered looking in the database). Perhaps there isn't as much cyberpunk as one would dare hope for, but seinen and anime in general certainly isn't regressing. So in conclusion, good troller, when you said "So it could (and probably will) be that a lot of my assumptions are completely wrong, making my conclusions wrong, too. " you were very right. Try not to overgeneralize about things and act like a 16 year old when replying to posts because: A) They make you look unintelligent and B)It's no fun for the person replying You have to remember that this club is about "thoughtful" discussions. i can see that you do have a tad bit of intelligence, but please, put it to some good use and instead of going off on insulting another member, use your head an explain your points. You were a financial analyst, i'm sure you can do it ; ) |
Sohei said: Long list of childish insults and irrelevant, off-topic meandering Enough of your passive-aggressive, arrogant fucking bullshit. Your initial reply in this topic was not only pissy, rude, and needlessly argumentative, but worst of all, indicated you had read nothing anyone else wrote. Shockingly, you didn't like it when I replied with the same tone you used. Your second post is a long, irrelevant treatise on absolutely NOTHING related to my first post. I'm not about to waste my time writing out a long reply to someone too stupid and arrogant to read any posts in a topic they're responding to. So either make an attempt to read the original post and address the actual points contained therein, or kindly shut the fuck up. Edit- Can't say this wasn't expected. When I wrote that first post, I just KNEW some moe-lover would respond in a wild and angry manner without even reading through the entire thing. |
YoungVagabondDec 17, 2009 7:13 PM
YoungVagabond said: Sohei said: Long list of childish insults and irrelevant, off-topic meandering Enough of your passive-aggressive, arrogant fucking bullshit. Your initial reply in this topic was not only pissy, rude, and needlessly argumentative, but worst of all, indicated you had read nothing anyone else wrote. Shockingly, you didn't like it when I replied to this in the same tone you used. Your second post is a long, irrelevant treatise on absolutely NOTHING related to my first post. So either make an attempt to read the original post and address the actual points contained therein, or kindly shut the fuck up. That's a really bad attempt at trying to get away with your own ignorance. Of course i read your original post (twice actually), i responded to it in manner; you didn't have a response ready for me so you started flaming me. Now please, if you're going to do that, just disappear from here because I want interesting, well thought through responses, and with your last post you're simply stating "i'm not up to that task". You can try to redeem yourself by replying to what I wrote for you (which wasn't childish nor irrelevant to your original post, unless you forgot about what the prupose of that was), but in your state I don't think anything sensible will come out of it anyway. Still, it would be more fun than just sitting here and trying to talk some sense into you. edit: It's funny how you state moe-loving, because that means you're implying that my favorite anime and manga are moe. Oh well, I guess Texhnolyze et al was quite moe then. |
| This thread is very educational, thanks for making this YV :) BTW I'm a 1st year Economics student so I really like this thread. Can I ask questions? 1. Is the anime/manga industry significant to Japan's GDP compared to the automobile and electronics industry? 2. Does Japan earn more locally or internationally? 3. How much does the U.S. contribute to the anime/manga industry and does the 2008 economic crisis directly affected it? If there are no answers it's okay. |
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| Alright, I'm just going to ignore Sohei's attempts at thread derailment and petty Internet squabbling from here on out. Everyone else is writing thoughtful posts about the subject. He's the lone exception, thankfully. danceljoy said: This thread is very educational, thanks for making this YV :) BTW I'm a 1st year Economics student so I really like this thread. Can I ask questions? Of course; I'm trying to learn myself, and naikou's observation about the difference between a Monster and a Cowboy Bebop was really illuminating. danceljoy said: 1. Is the anime/manga industry significant to Japan's GDP compared to the automobile and electronics industry? Not even close. Even the US movie industry is (in terms of revenue) roughly 100 times smaller than our automobile industry, and at least 1000 times smaller than the consumer electronics market. And the US movie industry is still something like 100-1000 times larger than the Japanese anime/manga industry! It's really a drop in the bucket in terms of national GDP. danceljoy said: 2. Does Japan earn more locally or internationally? Locally. In the US, no one is going to buy over a million copies of a single manga in a week, or several million total manga volumes overall. That being said, from what I understand, the US market is an important one, although primarily, for anime DVD sales, not manga. I actually have no clue how DVD sales in the US compare with those in Japan. Another vital piece of data we're missing to this puzzle. danceljoy said: 3. How much does the U.S. contribute to the anime/manga industry and does the 2008 economic crisis directly affected it? I don't know what effect the depression has had. I know that for films, the 2008 economic crisis has led to a BOOM, since films are the cheapest form of night-time entertainment (a lot cheaper than a restaurant, club, bar, etc.), and people want an escape from the real world. I recall seeing some graphs which showed that the high mark for US anime DVD sales was 2006, and it has been steadily going downhill since then. (So a few years before the crisis) |
YoungVagabond said: We've already been over why Aoi Bungaku is not seinen; namely, each artist/creator involved in it is a shonen manga author. Bleach IS a shounen. Prince of Tennis IS a shounen. Death Note, believe it or not, IS a shounen. Er. Watch it first before you say anything about it. It's not like designers are confined to working in a single genre - yes, designers, because the authors are Dazai, Souseki, Akutagawa and Sakaguti (that mature enough?), the design is entirely superifical and not relevant to the genre, which regardless does not depend on the author, but the work. YoungVagabond said: Alright, I'm just going to ignore Sohei's attempts at thread derailment and petty Internet squabbling from here on out. Everyone else is writing thoughtful posts about the subject. He's the lone exception, thankfully. Perhaps you should read his posts. Who knows, he might say something relevant in them. Like for instance something about who has money to buy DVDs, which kind of curious creatures inhabit Akihabara, the definition of seinen and other quite relevant things. |
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Kaiserpingvin said: Er. Watch it first before you say anything about it. It's not like designers are confined to working in a single genre - yes, designers, because the authors are Dazai, Souseki, Akutagawa and Sakaguti (that mature enough?), the design is entirely superifical and not relevant to the genre, which regardless does not depend on the author, but the work. So you would characterize the show as seinen-influenced despite it's creators' backgrounds? I'll give it a look. More importantly, is it doing well in terms of DVD sales? Kaiserpingvin said: Perhaps you should read his posts. Who knows, he might say something relevant in them. I glanced through each one and saw nothing except juvenile insults, irrelevant discussion of shounen, and poorly thought out "arguments" from someone unhappy that his favorite moe shows were described negatively. Kaiserpingvin said: Like for instance something about who has money to buy DVDs, DVDs are hardly an expensive commodity, and as the last 5 years have shown, consumers in the 8-16 year old age bracket produce a lot of its business in something like movies, let alone anime. Just because a child gets his parents to order the newest Bakemonogatari (as an example) DVD for him, or uses their cash to purchase Tokyo Magnitude 8.0 at the local store does not mean they are being bought by adults. This was only my experience, but at 14 years old, just starting high school, myself and all my friends were all buying DVDs regularly. At least one a month. That's way more than any of us do now. It makes sense, too; advertisers traditionally consider the young teen demographic an especially lucrative one. I can't imagine it would be any different for young Japanese teens, who are even more into entertainment media than we are. Kaiserpingvin said: the definition of seinen and other quite relevant things. He seems to be under the belief that NGE is seinen, or at the very least non-shounen, even though it was the major television program for a generation of 7-13 year olds. Explaining anything further to him would be a waste of time, especially since he wouldn't read it, anyways. |
| Seeing as you're inclined to view my posts as insults (which, fair enough, they were turning into, but honestly, you can't expect much when you start insulting someone for being "childish" and "offtopic"), as you're not inclined to read through them i'll just take the core points out of them and stay cordial. Firstly, let me state again that my "favorite" shows can hardly be considered moe (check out my profile?), and that i'm hardly defending them either. Onto the sales for DVDs and Bluray in Japan. Animation takes a lot of space in terms of memory on a DVD or bluray disk, meaning that usually a series is released by having between 1 and 4 episodes on a disc, with 2 or three becoming the norm in the modern market (better animation means more DVD space taken up). I believe that for Bakemonogatari it is being released per story arc, meaning 6 DVDs, each around the cost of an equivalent of 40$ (in Japan, but i've gone through the effort for you and found a US deliverer): 40$ per disc gives you a grand total of around 200$ to buy the entire series. However, this can get worse with Bluray. Let me just link you a well selling seinen title: That's right, 200$ for half a season, do the math and it will cost you 400$ for a full season. And this is for a series that has already sold decently well. More obscure anime cost even more, for example, it has been reckoned that buying the entire LoGH saga would cost you upwards of a few thousand US dollars. My point? I don't know about you, but as a high schoolder I certainly didn't have a few hundred to a few thousand dollars lying around to buy anime DVDs, which brings me back to what I said earlier: most revenue on anime DVDs is made from those with jobs and larger disposable incomes, furthermore, as I also said, the public of places like Akihabara (and Den Den Town in Osaka, I believe, but i've never been there, this would be an assumption) is mainly adults in their 20's-30's. Anyway, that's that for the revenue part, onto seinen semantics. NGE was originally shonen title, aired in the evening, but the broadcast changed due to the content and it was moved halfway along to a different time slot, even later in the evening. It's funny how you say 7-13 year olds. Even in Japan, they don't show implied sex, mutilated bodies (albeit EVAs) or psychologiucal traumas to say, 8 year olds. Pokemon is the norm at that age. By the way, 7-11 is the kodomo age group, not shonen. Of course, you are free to counter me and provide me with the time schedule for when NGE originally aired. If it was a 7-13 year old agegroup, i'm sure it aired around 7-8, right before the start of school. Also, it's interesting that you say that Tokyo Magnitude et al is shonen. here, let me provide you with the original airing schedule of a lot of titles which you qualify as shonen. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noitamina 0:45 - 1:15 in the morning. I don't know about you, but where I live, not many teenagers would be up every night watching anime at that age. It may also be silly to use info from wikipedia, but on this case it's warranted. "It was launched with the intention of expanding the target audience beyond the typical young male demographic" If it's airing shonen.. then it's not really being sucessful at expanding the target range beyond shonen, is it now? I'll provide you with my argument against your hypothesis by the way, seeing as you didn't bother reading my posts. Perhaps you will stop decrying me for being off-topic. Sohei said: Anyway, as for regressing in anime over the past 5 years. Let's see, 5 years ago was 2004.. What seinen titles have been released since then.. off the top of my head; Mushishi, GiTS:SAC (at the very least, second gig), Ergo Proxy, Baccano, Monster, Hellsing, Beck, Detroit Metal City, Mononoke, Samurai Champloo, Genshiken, a lot of Shinkai Makoto's works, Kurozuka and more (i'm out now, but i'm sure that list could continue if i bothered looking in the database). Perhaps there isn't as much cyberpunk as one would dare hope for, but seinen and anime in general certainly aren't regressing. That was that. danceljoy said: This thread is very educational, thanks for making this YV :) BTW I'm a 1st year Economics student so I really like this thread. Can I ask questions? 1. Is the anime/manga industry significant to Japan's GDP compared to the automobile and electronics industry? 2. Does Japan earn more locally or internationally? 3. How much does the U.S. contribute to the anime/manga industry and does the 2008 economic crisis directly affected it? If there are no answers it's okay. I'll be taking these figures from wikipedia, but in this case I doubt them to be inaccurate. The manga market in japan is worth 3.6 billion dollars, with the major importing market, the USA and Canada, worth 200 million US dollars (in 2006). The export of anime for Japan brings in a revenue of 4.35 billion dollars, and that is only a fraction of the Japan market, which I'd guess should easily be up to perhaps 40 billion or more, with pokemon alone being a multi-billion dollar franchise. In contrast, Toyota's yearly revenue (not profit) is around 240 billion US dollars. Japan GDP is around 4-5 trillion US dollars, do the math and the anime and manga industry is worth about 1% of Japan's GDP. It might seem insignificant, but is is quite a lot. As for the 2008 financial crisis, yes, it has affected it. The best way to measure this is in the number of airing shows this year compared to last year or the year before that. I believe that the amount of airing anime has fallen drastically (upwards of 20%, but these are numbers off the top of my head, hardly what you can call factual), which can be attributed to the state of the economy. I can't be too sure about hard facts though, so take everything I say with a grain of salt. I hope that answers your question. edit: I believe the figures for anime include the selling of promo items, dolls and other related merchandise of the series, not solely DVD and bluray sales. post edit: ignore the 1% of GDP figure i contrived. If i use all the figures mentioned, i'd be measuring Gross National Product (GNP), not Gross Domestic Product (GDP), meaning the figure should be somewhat lower. |
SoheiDec 18, 2009 6:30 AM
| Alright, the post above (to my surprise) actually looks reasonable and on topic, so I'll address it; Sohei said: Onto the sales for DVDs and Bluray in Japan. Animation takes a lot of space in terms of memory on a DVD or bluray disk, meaning that usually a series is released by having between 1 and 4 episodes on a disc, with 2 or three becoming the norm in the modern market (better animation means more DVD space taken up). I believe that for Bakemonogatari it is being released per story arc, meaning 6 DVDs, each around the cost of an equivalent of 40$ (in Japan, but i've gone through the effort for you and found a US deliverer): 40$ per disc gives you a grand total of around 200$ to buy the entire series. However, this can get worse with Bluray. Let me just link you a well selling seinen title: That's right, 200$ for half a season, do the math and it will cost you 400$ for a full season. And this is for a series that has already sold decently well. More obscure anime cost even more, for example, it has been reckoned that buying the entire LoGH saga would cost you upwards of a few thousand US dollars. My point? I don't know about you, but as a high schoolder I certainly didn't have a few hundred to a few thousand dollars lying around to buy anime DVDs, which brings me back to what I said earlier: most revenue on anime DVDs is made from those with jobs and larger disposable incomes, furthermore, as I also said, the public of places like Akihabara (and Den Den Town in Osaka, I believe, but i've never been there, this would be an assumption) is mainly adults in their 20's-30's. I appreciate you providing links, and trying to construct a logical argument. There's just one major problem. Your numbers are completely wrong. Forget this nonsense about $400 for a single anime season from a random site that probably spends $300 of that to ship it. The industry would go completely bankrupt if that were the case. No one is going to spend that much money on a complete season. Let's look at Amazon, for example? Know how much an "obscure anime" costs? Not just 13 episodes either, but all 48 of them? 20 bucks. That's right. Not several thousand dollars. Not $400. Not $200. 20 bucks. Well, maybe that one in particular is especially low. And indeed, we find that something like FMA 1 costs more. How much more? Oh, $50 for 26 episodes. My point is that even if we assume that entertainment merchandise are marginally more expensive in Japan, your "few hundred dollars for 13 episodes" is ludicrous. It's an order of magnitude cheaper. And yes, when I was in high school, I could spare twenty bucks for a huge DVD. In fact, you know the only time I ever bought anime? When I was in high school. Sohei said: Anyway, that's that for the revenue part, onto seinen semantics. NGE was originally shonen title, aired in the evening, but the broadcast changed due to the content and it was moved halfway along to a different time slot, even later in the evening. It's funny how you say 7-13 year olds. Even in Japan, they don't show implied sex, mutilated bodies (albeit EVAs) or psychologiucal traumas to say, 8 year olds. Pokemon is the norm at that age. Hokuto No Ken was the dominant shounen title of the 80s. There can be no argument against this. I've even talked to a few Japanese people who were only 6 years old then, some of them FEMALE, and they still remember how much they loved that show. Yet, Hokuto No Ken had explicit torture, implied RAPE, explicitly violent mutilation, dozens of bloody kills per episode, mass genocide, etc. And honestly, I've heard your argument above so many times now, once even in real life, that I feel like I should save a copy of my response in Word. The problem is that the people arguing this don't remember their childhoods at all. 8 years old is not the same as being 4 years old. And the one time I heard this argument in real life? It was made by an angry, fatass, pimply faced, stereotypical otaku with a poster of Haruhi on his bedroom wall, upset that I mocked most anime as "just for kids" to someone else. Sorry man; you're in poor company on this one. Sohei said: Also, it's interesting that you say that Tokyo Magnitude et al is shonen. here, let me provide you with the original airing schedule of a lot of titles which you qualify as shonen. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noitamina 0:45 - 1:15 in the morning. I don't know about you, but where I live, not many teenagers would be up every night watching anime at that age. This is so funny. You know why I started watching anime in high school? Because I would stay up until midnight or later every night, and there was nothing else on except Adult Swim's anime line-up. I don't know about you, but where I live, most teenagers can stay up as long as they want. Hell, I would CALL friends on their cell around 1 am sometimes, since we were both up. 12:45 am is actually a GREAT time to attract teenage viewers. Anyway, as for regressing in anime over the past 5 years. Let's see, 5 years ago was 2004.. What seinen titles have been released since then.. off the top of my head; Mushishi, GiTS:SAC (at the very least, second gig), Ergo Proxy, Baccano, Monster, Hellsing, Beck, Detroit Metal City, Mononoke, Samurai Champloo, Genshiken, a lot of Shinkai Makoto's works, Kurozuka and more (i'm out now, but i'm sure that list could continue if i bothered looking in the database). Perhaps there isn't as much cyberpunk as one would dare hope for, but seinen and anime in general certainly aren't regressing. I defined the best period of anime as being from 1998 to 2004. The last five years is 2005-2009. Interestingly enough, that eliminates quite a few of the shows you mention. Samurai Champloo and Monster, just off the top of my head. Sohei said: I'll be taking these figures from wikipedia, but in this case I doubt them to be inaccurate. The manga market in japan is worth 3.6 billion dollars, with the major importing market, the USA and Canada, worth 200 million US dollars (in 2006). The export of anime for Japan brings in a revenue of 4.35 billion dollars, and that is only a fraction of the Japan market, which I'd guess should easily be up to perhaps 40 billion or more, with pokemon alone being a multi-billion dollar franchise. In contrast, Toyota's yearly revenue (not profit) is around 240 billion US dollars. Much like with the price of DVDs, you're drawing completely random numbers, with no set criteria, and not surprisingly, getting another incorrect conclusion. The entire manga industry might be valued at $3.6 billion, including the price of their assets, but their yearly REVENUE is much, much lower. And it is the revenue that is a part of the GDP, not their total assets. The estimate of $4.5 billion a year for anime exports sounds a little high, but okay, I'll accept it. However, where do you get the idea that the Japanese market is TEN TIMES the rest of the world combined?! That's absurd. Just because anime is made in Japan does not mean they are the primary source of revenue for it, and in fact, I've seen numerous charts and figures which show the opposite; that total anime exports are as much as, or greater, than total sales within the country. Take Hollywood films for example; they make as much money internationally, or even more, as they do in the US market. Sohei said: Japan GDP is around 4-5 trillion US dollars, do the math and the anime and manga industry is worth about 1% of Japan's GDP. It might seem insignificant, but is is quite a lot. Yes, let's do a better job of actually investigating the math. Based on the number of total manga sold in a year, and an assumption of roughly $10 a volume, that comes out to something like $550 million sales in Japan, plus the $175 million in sales in Canada and the US, and let's add $100 million for the rest of the world. That's a little over $900 million. Anime sales in the US and Canada of $4.5 billion, and as much in Japan. (Sounds real fishy, but whatever) That's $9 billion. Together with the manga, that's roughly $10 billion. Total Japanese GDP is $5 trillion. So it's 0.2%. A fifth of a percent. Not bad, actually. More than I expected. But not very significant, either, even with the most generous of assumptions. Sohei said: As for the 2008 financial crisis, yes, it has affected it. The best way to measure this is in the number of airing shows this year compared to last year or the year before that. I believe that the amount of airing anime has fallen drastically (upwards of 20%, but these are numbers off the top of my head, hardly what you can call factual), which can be attributed to the state of the economy. I can't be too sure about hard facts though, so take everything I say with a grain of salt. The depression has certainly negatively impacted distribution and production, I will agree with you on that point. But danceljoy was asking how it affected SALES. And for that, I don't know. Sohei said: edit: I believe the figures for anime include the selling of promo items, dolls and other related merchandise of the series, not solely DVD and bluray sales. Yeah, this would partially explain the extremely high-sounding $4.5 billion figures you mentioned above. |
YoungVagabondDec 18, 2009 7:02 AM
| Alright, time to type out a reply. I looked into the figures some more, and as expected, there is a huge discrepancy in prices. Here are some results I found (blogs and yahoo answers, perhaps not the most relaible ones, but it's better than nothing): http://uk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080907111604AAWFB4X http://www.cartoongallery.com.au/component/content/article/25-home-page/105-japans-anime-industry-in-crisis Especially the last one is interesting: "Westerners have never paid much for anime, certainly compared to the prices which the poor sods in Japan have to pay. My first trip to Japan was about 13 years ago, in the days before DVDs. A client of mine just had to have the Armitage movie on VHS. I told him it would cost about AUD$120, he said just buy it, which I did. That was $120 for one VHS tape, and that was the going price. A quick look at some Japanese anime prices on the Net shows that now you will pay about 5,000 Yen or so, which is still about AUD$65, and that's with the Aussie dollar being strong now. You also need to be aware of how many episodes there are per disc. It is not at all uncommon for Japanese DVDs to have only 2 episodes per disc." This certainly supports what i've said before, and furthermore the prices i've seen in Japan first hand. Of course, then there still is the problem with the prices you found. The most logical assumption I can make would be that amazon is simply trying to clear stock, or bought the series in cheap as no one wanted to buy it, reducing price levels. Onto revenue and profit. I don't know if you've taken Economics before, but let me illustrate something for you. GDP is the total of Consumption, Government Investment, Private Investment, Exports minus Imports. Stating that only revenue would be part of GDP is therefore not true, as consumption includes consumers buying manga. Exports includes all revenue made abroad, not solely profit. Therefore, 3.6 billion dollars is completely part of GDP (or GNP, to be more precise). As for the anime industry, again I stated that my measure for the japanese market was an assumption. The figure i picked up for the american market includes the sales of anime merchandise, only 700 million dollars of the 4.5 billion dollars is actually made from selling DVDs in the USA. Now then, the Japanese anime. http://www.jmr-marketing.com/user/495/Big_bucks_manga_pop_influence_economics_marketing/ Honestly, I don't need to say more at this point, because it is even my numbers were an underestimate, 100 billion US dollars. I don't know if this is solely the Japanese market or the global market though, not very well explained. This is a figure from a consultancy firm, hardly something deemed inaccurate by all accounts. Your point on Hokuto no Ken is valid however, and by all means, I know a few of teenagers who still watch/read it over in Japan. few is however different from generalized preference, which nowadays goes towards shows like Bleach. Also, it is a show from the 80's hardly a norm at this point in time for currently airing shonen titles. Also, I don't see how it is relevant to NGE, because, as I pointed out, NGE was reclassified in the middle of its season. Furthermore, i was only talking about NGE in reference to KnK. The discussion was originally aimed at anime released this year, which is why i made the comparison between KnK and NGE. You haven't discussed that, nor attempted to say that KnK is shonen. As for titles that dropped off in 2004 if you don't count them; you're right. Keep in mind however that these are all titles off the top of my head, if you really wanted me to, I could increase that list to many more seinen titles aired at a later date. The total sales of anime, i don't know about either. however, records on DVD and Bluray sales have been broken multiple times this year, K-ON and Bakemonogatari to list a few. This is of course no indicator of the total amount of sales, and i'm inclined to agree that the larger percentage of anime do not make profit. |
Sohei said: This certainly supports what i've said before, and furthermore the prices i've seen in Japan first hand. Of course, then there still is the problem with the prices you found. The most logical assumption I can make would be that amazon is simply trying to clear stock, or bought the series in cheap as no one wanted to buy it, reducing price levels. I was pretty sure we were trying to have a discussion with verifiable facts and figures, not what some random dude on Yahoo UK wrote. Worst of all, even this highly irrelevant, hand-picked evidence doesn't support your statements. Nowhere is there a mention of $200, $400, or several thousand dollars for a complete anime season. A random VHS sold for about $100 13 years ago. So what? How is it relevant to prices today? Find some actual credible information on this, not a random user comment. The only credible evidence I see is $20 for 48 episodes of an unpopular show, and $50 for 26 episodes of a blockbuster hit. Sohei said: I don't know if you've taken Economics before, but let me illustrate something for you. GDP is the total of Consumption, Government Investment, Private Investment, Exports minus Imports. See, this is how I know you don't really read my posts, despite your protests to the contrary. In the first few sentences of my first post, I mention that I've done research and have a degree in economics. Sohei said: Stating that only revenue would be part of GDP is therefore not true, as consumption includes consumers buying manga. Exports includes all revenue made abroad, not solely profit. Therefore, 3.6 billion dollars is completely part of GDP (or GNP, to be more precise). Consumption IS revenue, in this case. The 3.6 billion dollars is the value of the entire industry; the buildings the larger magazine companies own, the back catalogue of their various titles, etc. It's staggeringly more than just the revenue alone. I'll even give you a small economics lesson; the "value" of an entertainment company is usually about 5-10 times higher than its actual revenue. A basketball team valued at $600 million might only make about $100 million in revenue per year. A company that only makes $10 million of revenue might get sold for $300 million, thanks to its patents and IP, among other things that aren't directly calculated for by GDP, or are undervalued there. Sohei said: As for the anime industry, again I stated that my measure for the japanese market was an assumption. The figure i picked up for the american market includes the sales of anime merchandise, only 700 million dollars of the 4.5 billion dollars is actually made from selling DVDs in the USA. That makes even less sense, actually. The sales of anime MERCHANDISE in the US (or North America; you keep interchanging these) is 3.8 billion dollars? What? Do you realize what an astronomical figure that is? Sohei said: Now then, the Japanese anime. http://www.jmr-marketing.com/user/495/Big_bucks_manga_pop_influence_economics_marketing/ Honestly, I don't need to say more at this point, because it is even my numbers were an underestimate, 100 billion US dollars. I don't know if this is solely the Japanese market or the global market though, not very well explained. This is a figure from a consultancy firm, hardly something deemed inaccurate by all accounts. See, this is why searching for information on the Internet, while a valuable tool, becomes meaningless when you don't understand what you read. For starters, it doesn't even say that the industry is worth $100 billion; only that it is "expected to". More importantly, you once again confuse "market value" and "revenue". They're different. Like I wrote above, revenue is at least ten times less than total market share. And, surprise surprise, an estimate of $10 billion in yearly revenue is very close to what I wrote earlier. Be honest with me; you've never taken an economics class in your life, have you? You're just trying to piece together stuff from Wikipedia and Google, and hoping it's right? Sohei said: Your point on Hokuto no Ken is valid however, and by all means, I know a few of teenagers who still watch/read it over in Japan. few is however different from generalized preference, which nowadays goes towards shows like Bleach. Also, it is a show from the 80's hardly a norm at this point in time for currently airing shonen titles. Also, I don't see how it is relevant to NGE, because, as I pointed out, NGE was reclassified in the middle of its season. Furthermore, i was only talking about NGE in reference to KnK. Again, all totally irrelevant. You mentioned the mature content of NGE as a reason why it's not shounen, and then I pointed out that one of the most popular shounen titles ever, Hokuto No Ken, had FAR MORE mature content. Unless you're arguing that Japanese standards changed drastically from about 1987 (end of HnK1, start of HnK2) to 1995 (NGE), your quoted portion above has nothing to do with the discussion. Sohei said: The discussion was originally aimed at anime released this year, which is why i made the comparison between KnK and NGE. You haven't discussed that, nor attempted to say that KnK is shonen. KnK, while not a classical shounen, is clearly shounen-inspired and has nothing to do with seinen. Sohei said: however, records on DVD and Bluray sales have been broken multiple times this year, K-ON and Bakemonogatari to list a few. This is of course no indicator of the total amount of sales, and i'm inclined to agree that the larger percentage of anime do not make profit. Bluray sales records are going to be broken no matter what because it's a brand new format. But if DVD records are being broken, I'd say that either the recession hasn't hurt sales, or like movies, has actually helped them. |
YoungVagabondDec 18, 2009 9:09 AM
| Oh god. Firstly, where did you get your "degree"? Patriot Bible University? Or some other mid-west community college? I'm honestly on the verge of just ranting; trying to escape through loopholes is not a great way of having an argument. Anyway, i won't just yet. The market for anime and manga is worth 100 billion $, meaning, the market demand for that product will be exactly that. Now, I assume that supply will meet that demand, meaning that revenue will be equal to 100 billion $. You seem to be making the distinction between market and industry worth, or perhaps the contribution of an industry to an economy, including fiscal multipliers et al. However, in this case the market is the market demand, not the worth of the industry. I agree that it is only a prediction of worth, but obviously it wouldn't be up there if the prediction was off, would it now? Furthermore, I don't see why you're arguing with me on prices for DVDs or Bluray didcs in Japan. I've lived in Japan, i've seen the prices, and i've explained to you why they are as they are. yet for some reason you seem to persist that prices aren't what they are. As I said earlier, the price of those DVDs on amazon are not equivalent to prices in Japan, unless they're simply clearing out old merchandise, which is what this looks like. Unless you're telling me that all the prices in japan which i've seen first hand are fake and just delusions to my head, accept that prices in Japan are much higher than in the USA and that therefore the market demand for such products is aimed at those with higher disposable incomes. As for Hokuto no Ken, if you're inclined to make an argument on that, let me just point to berserk, which you listed as a seinen. If Berserk (the anime) is considered seinen by your standards, Hokuto no Ken would be too. it's futile to hold an argument on what is shonen and what is seinen by simply relying on oner show and from there basing the entire difference between shonen and seinen. By the way, stop bashing my numbers please? If you have a problem with the statistics, please go complain to the Japan External Trade Organization, because it's them that made the numbers. |
| Thanks for the answers to my questions YV and Sohei, they are more than I expected. I apologize cause right now I have nothing to contribute except ask more questions once I think of one. :) |
"One way, Jesus, You're the only one that I could live for! You are the way, the truth and the life. We live by faith and not by sight... " |
Sohei said: Oh god. Firstly, where did you get your "degree"? Patriot Bible University? Or some other mid-west community college? I'm honestly on the verge of just ranting; trying to escape through loopholes is not a great way of having an argument. Morons like yourself are so tedious. After arguing normally for a while, they can't help but launch lame insults the moment someone proves their facts and figures wrong. I also like how you never answered whether you've actually taken an economics class or not. I think we all know the answer to that, Mr. Wikipedia. Sohei said: The market for anime and manga is worth 100 billion $, meaning, the market demand for that product will be exactly that. Now, I assume that supply will meet that demand, meaning that revenue will be equal to 100 billion $. You seem to be making the distinction between market and industry worth, or perhaps the contribution of an industry to an economy, including fiscal multipliers et al. However, in this case the market is the market demand, not the worth of the industry. This is total bullshit, and you don't even need any background in economics (which you clearly don't have) to figure it out. Just basic common sense, something you also lack. You're telling me that the anime industry makes $100 billion of revenue a year? Fucking Hollywood makes less than $10 billion in theatrical revenue a year Anyone who isn't an argumentative idiot can quickly realize that $100 billion is an absurd, astronomical number. Sohei said: Furthermore, I don't see why you're arguing with me on prices for DVDs or Bluray didcs in Japan. I've lived in Japan, i've seen the prices, and i've explained to you why they are as they are. yet for some reason you seem to persist that prices aren't what they are. As I said earlier, the price of those DVDs on amazon are not equivalent to prices in Japan, unless they're simply clearing out old merchandise, which is what this looks like. Unless you're telling me that all the prices in japan which i've seen first hand are fake and just delusions to my head, accept that prices in Japan are much higher than in the USA and that therefore the market demand for such products is aimed at those with higher disposable incomes. You don't get it, do you? I agree the Japanese market prices are higher than the figures on Amazon. I wrote as much in a post above. I just don't agree they're $400 or several thousand for a full season or whatever you wrote. Maye as high as $60-$100, but not $400. Sohei said: As for Hokuto no Ken, if you're inclined to make an argument on that, let me just point to berserk, which you listed as a seinen. I feel like I'm arguing against a brick wall here. You said that NGE was not shounen because of "mature content". I showed that HnK, one of the three most popular, iconic shounen series EVER, had far more mature content, and was watched primarily by 6-14 year olds in Japan in the 80s. The purpose of this was to prove your original argument wrong by a counterexample, the conclusion from which is that NGE is indeed shounen. Of course, this totally went over your head. Sohei said: By the way, stop bashing my numbers please? If you have a problem with the statistics, please go complain to the Japan External Trade Organization, because it's them that made the numbers. Do $3.8 billion in annual exports of anime merchandise, as opposed to only $700 million in DVDs, even sound remotely reasonable to YOU? You do know that just because you read something on the Internet, it's not automatically correct, right? |
Why not think about how people used to like Arnold but now they're into the Ben Afflecks... The change has more to do with the rise of metrosexuality then anything to do with otakus maybe... And also how before nobody gave a shit about Art but now everyone and their mother is interested in that kind of thing (in regards to movies, etc.) I mean like cartoons were entertaining before...Giant Robots. Fuck Yeah! Now people are more interested in looking at pretty pictures and relating to things (angst) not sure that made sense... but ^_^ |
mekanik said: Why not think about how people used to like Arnold but now they're into the Ben Afflecks... Ben Affleck has been in Hollywood exile for the last 6 years, dude. He's considered box office cancer, and his career is in complete ruins. That being said, I totally get what you're saying. You think it has to do with the feminization/infantilization of people's tastes in all areas of entertainment, not just anime. Honestly, I probably wouldn't go that far. Like, sure, it might explain the rise of increasingly juvenile shounen, or its greater popularity, but moe? I don't know. There certainly hasn't been anything remotely similar to that aesthetic in other areas of entertainment. mekanik said: I mean like cartoons were entertaining before...Giant Robots. Fuck Yeah! Now people are more interested in looking at pretty pictures and relating to things (angst) not sure that made sense... but ^_^ Yeah, good point. No one wants to see traditional action anymore. |
YoungVagabond said: Morons like yourself are so tedious. After arguing normally for a while, they can't help but launch lame insults the moment someone proves their facts and figures wrong. I also like how you never answered whether you've actually taken an economics class or not. I think we all know the answer to that, Mr. Wikipedia. So after insulting me half a dozen times, quite personally, you resent it that I do so too? Anyway, do tell me, where did you actually get your degree? That, or you simply didn't pay attention in introductory economics.. Anyway, I don't have a degree in economics. I have however taken IB Economics HL (which in the US would allow me to skip the first one and a half year of university), so from there, you could perhaps say i've got half a economics degree? Considering that a Bsc is 3 years. But American university education isn't too great anyway (except perhaps at MIT), i'd rather spend my time in the UK's university system. Of course, I wouldn't be arguing about economics if i'm solely relying on a higher level secondary education economics course. I've read a number, if not most (well, it's debatable really, economists release so many analyses and research papers, at the very minimum, i've read the most important ones) of Keynes, Ricardo's, Friedman's et al (perhaps lacking in heterodox economics, but so be it). Furthermore, i'm befriended with a number of authorities on economics, who do enlighten me, such as Mr. Rischard. That is off-topic though, but seeing as you incessantly asked for my background in economics.. YoungVagabond said: This is total bullshit, and you don't even need any background in economics (which you clearly don't have) to figure it out. Just basic common sense, something you also lack. You're telling me that the anime industry makes $100 billion of revenue a year? Fucking Hollywood makes less than $10 billion in theatrical revenue a year Anyone who isn't an argumentative idiot can quickly realize that $100 billion is an absurd, astronomical number. So first you accuse me of not reading an article properly, and then you go on to make that mistake? First of all, you're pointing to the movie industry, which has an average groos revenue of nearly 10 billion. The article i quoted said the anime market which includes movie sales, DVD and bluray sales, merchandise sales, spin-off game sales and more; so yes, I don't think that number is "out there" for revenue, although I would like to know how they came about measuring it. Why am I even defending this though? YoungVagabond said: You don't get it, do you? I agree the Japanese market prices are higher than the figures on Amazon. I wrote as much in a post above. I just don't agree they're $400 or several thousand for a full season or whatever you wrote. Maye as high as $60-$100, but not $400. GOOD, you're finally agreeing on something. 400$ was a number I made up on the spot deduced from that Bluray of GitS, however, it isn't far off. A anime DVD or bluray disc in Japan costs around 3000 yen (some are more the endless eight arc for haruhi was released on 4 discs, each at more than 6000 yen). Those discs contain 2 or three episodes. I don't know about the current exchange rates (you can go check it at www.xe.com , i'm too lazy for now) but 1 euro is about 125 yen? Go figure it out for dollars, i'm not too sure about the exchange rate for that. Anyway, 3000 yen for a 2-3 episodes means that a 12 episode series is between 12000 and 18000 yen meaning between 100 and 145 euros (do the math for dollars) for a short anime season. A 25 episode series would be double that, so between 200 and 290 euros. Not far off 400 dollars. Well then, can you finally agree then that the main audience is an older age group than the average age of a shonen fan, or even a late teenager? YoungVagabond said: I feel like I'm arguing against a brick wall here. You said that NGE was not shounen because of "mature content". I showed that HnK, one of the three most popular, iconic shounen series EVER, had far more mature content, and was watched primarily by 6-14 year olds in Japan in the 80s. The purpose of this was to prove your original argument wrong by a counterexample, the conclusion from which is that NGE is indeed shounen. Of course, this totally went over your head. Firstly, again, Shonen is not the 6-14 year old age bracket (how many times have I said that?), it's between 12 and 18. And I didn't say NGE was not shounen due to mature content, you misinterpreted; I said that in the middle of the broadcast, NGE was no longer deemed appropriate for a shounen audience and therefore moved to a traditionally seinen timeslot; conclusion, NGE was not deemed shounen. By the way, one counterexample is hardly enough to disprove something, especially considering that the shows aired in a different deccenium. I provided you with a counter-example to your counter-example, but you conveniently ignored that. YoungVagabond said: Sohei said: By the way, stop bashing my numbers please? If you have a problem with the statistics, please go complain to the Japan External Trade Organization, because it's them that made the numbers. Do $3.8 billion in annual exports of anime merchandise, as opposed to only $700 million in DVDs, even sound remotely reasonable to YOU? You do know that just because you read something on the Internet, it's not automatically correct, right? No, it's not. But it would be quite silly if the figures from an official agency of the Japanese Government were wrong (well, all figures in economics are always somewhat off reality), would it now? I don't care if it sounds reasonable or not, it's the figures, and since I don't have the balance sheet on how they made the figures up, and looking at the fact that this is a figure from the Japanese Government, i'm not going to dispute it. Furthermore, I don't see why anime merchandise wouldn't outsell DVDs and such. I'm sure you've seen pictures of bedrooms of certain anime fans. Those posters, miniatures (especially the miniatures!), body pillows, spin-off games, etc cost quite a bit of money. |
Sohei said: Anyway, I don't have a degree in economics. I have however taken IB Economics HL (which in the US would allow me to skip the first one and a half year of university), Just as I expected. You've taken the equivalent of the US's AP course, and based on your argumentation above, obviously haven't done very well in it. I took the same course in high school too, back before I was even particularly interested in the subject. In college, my classes were all mathematical economics, and my work/research has nothing to do with things like Japan's total GDP, or the amount of anime revenue per year, but I also have a good idea of what comparable numbers in other industries should be. By the way, your lousy IB class wouldn't even allow you to skip a semester at any decent college, let alone 1.5 years. Sohei said: But American university education isn't too great anyway (except perhaps at MIT), i'd rather spend my time in the UK's university system. This might be the most singularly stupid, douchetastic thing you've written in this entire topic, and there was heavy competition. I'm starting to regret the time I've spent responding to your nonsense. Sohei said: So first you accuse me of not reading an article properly, and then you go on to make that mistake? First of all, you're pointing to the movie industry, which has an average groos revenue of nearly 10 billion. The article i quoted said the anime market which includes movie sales, DVD and bluray sales, merchandise sales, spin-off game sales and more; so yes, I don't think that number is "out there" for revenue, although I would like to know how they came about measuring it. Why am I even defending this though? This is hilarious. The guy seriously thinks that, in his words, "DVD and Blu-ray, merchandise sales of anime" are 10 times greater than the gross theatrical revenue of live action films. This kid just keeps cracking me up. He honest-to-God thinks that the crummy number of DVDs they sell in Japan (measured in the hundred thousands), plus some merchandise for Tokyo basement dwellers amounts to 10 times more than the theatrical revenue of live action movies, which are only watched by over half the people of the civilized world. Forget economics. Sohei is plain delusional. Sohei said: I don't care if it sounds reasonable or not, Clearly not. Critical thinking isn't your strong suit. |
YoungVagabondDec 19, 2009 5:40 AM
| Oh dear, more personal attacks. Let me spoiler that, since it's completely off topic. YoungVagabond said: Obviously you've never been to Japan. Anime fandom in Japan is massive, and it is not unheard of for many fans there to spend their entire wage salary on their hobbies (no wonder no Japanese woman wants them). The fact that entire neighborhoods (and by neighborhood, I don't mean one block) in Tokyo, Osaka, Fukuoka and more are devoted to it as a culture should tell you something. Furthermore, in the rest of asia, anime is just as large, take South Korea or Taiwan for example (i'm sure you've never traveled there either, have you now?). Anime movies in these countries outsell Hollywood live-action movies by massive margins (just take the latest One Piece movie premiere in Japan, which has outsold the latest Harry Potter release).This is hilarious. The guy seriously thinks that, in his words, "DVD and Blu-ray, merchandise sales of anime" are 10 times greater than the gross theatrical revenue of live action films. This kid just keeps cracking me up. He honest-to-God thinks that the crummy number of DVDs they sell in Japan (measured in the hundred thousands), plus some merchandise for Tokyo basement dwellers amounts to 10 times more than the theatrical revenue of live action movies, which are only watched by over half the people of the civilized world. Forget economics. Sohei is plain delusional. And please, could you stop with the derogatory language? This club is about being respectful, proper debate, and you're lacking in proficiency at that level. I can understand that perhaps you disagree with things I say, no man is the same after all, but at least you could disagree in an educated fashion. Also, I presume you agree with me on the fact that the main target audience in Japan for DVD and Bluray sales is the 20-30 year age bracket then? Seeing as you ddin't disagree there. |
| Sorry for the late reply - had a fucking crazy past few days. YoungVagabond said: Didn't seem too interested. But apparently he didn't know any more about what I was talking about than I did. Guess it was just the censorship and scheduling issues with Bebop, then.We should invite him. Considering it's open to everyone, there's even a marginal chance he might join. YoungVagabond said: Ah, '98. That fateful year.Dude, I've been a hardcore Jazz fan since 1998. I meant that 15-10 was a good record, all things considered. With last year's disappointments, this year's injuries, and an awful 4-6 start, 5th in the West isn't a bad place to be right now. Yeah, I suppose you're right - 50% more wins than losses isn't anything to be ashamed about... though nothing to brag about either. Anyway, headed way off topic with this tangent, and I haven't really been following basketball close enough to hold my end of the conversation. |
| I read the first page, but then you started to write too much and I skipped your posts, so I'm sorry if I repeat something. So instead, they went for small bodied, giant eye, no noses 8 year-old girls, the type that look nothing like the ones in real life.[/quote said: Dude, you are so old-fashioned... Young looking girls are the past. The current trend is the trap characters. It's hard to write much without real data, but I have some insights that might be interesting. But first I'd like you to check the chart of the summer releases here: http://chartfag.wordpress.com/ we have: 4 anime to little girls 3 for the whole family (well, little kids might not get hetalia), 3 toy ad anime (SD gundam included) 3 super ecchi anime 4 sport shounen 2 shoujo (one historical and one rom com) 1 yaoi 7 anime for otaku (moe girls slice of life and harems) 1 adventure shounen 6 mature anime Now look at the ratings (the site is in portuguese, just look for the percentages) http://www.animeblade.com.br/noticias/1273782753/ http://www.animeblade.com.br/noticias/1273182030/ Not all anime are in the research. Don't know why. Now, the whole family anime are low budget and tend to have a lot of viewers. The anime for little girls also tend to have viewers, but more importantly, they sell stuff. I don't even need to mention the why teh toy ad anime are made. I don't think those guys are the problem, though the crisis make people have less money for toys. But that is temporary and the anime industry had problems before the crisis. The sport shounen are sure hits and are used to sell the manga and other stuff. Kaichou wa maid-sama is a successful shoujo manga, and the anime has good ratings. It'll also sell the manga. The adventure shounen Heroman is difficult to consider. It has ok ratings, but it doens't have manga and I don't know if they can realy profit with that. The yaoi probably has its public that will buy it on DVD and stuff. The mature anime have cosiderable ratings that are somewhat stable, but we can't say if that is enough to make a profit. It probably is, but it isn't enough to grow. But I ask you to notice. Of the 10 anime for otaku (super ecchi + anime for otaku), only two are there... But some show up in the most sold DVDs... Overall I think that everybody has space. I can't say who is making money or not witout actual data. YV, you wrote that 2009 didn't have a single seinen-inspired anime. But K-On! is a seinen manga... Seinen doesn't mean mature, it means targeted to young men. But I understood what you wnated to say. There were no mature seinen (to create a new category) adaptations, but there were some josei manga adaptations. And there were some manga targeted to adults, like trapeze and Aoi Bungaku (which is based in japanese literature classics and is very boring IMO). 2009 was a bad year for the world economy and its natural to focus on titles that have a better chance to make money. The biggest problem I see is what people do with that space. While the mature anime try to make new stuff, the majority of anime are re-hashes of the same things. And I'm not only talking about the otaku harem or slice-of-life anime. How many female gunner animes are there out there? Fantasy anime that use all the cliché from the JRPGs? CB was successful because it was different. Eva was differente to, even if it used the young boy that must pilot a mecha to save the wolrd cliché. Nowadays I read a anime description and most of the time I notice the patterns. It's rare to see something that deviates too much. |
| Among what you posted, the sports series, shows for little girls, and family stuff has stayed constant from the early 90s. Adventure shounen has gone downhill big time, as has mature anime. Meanwhile, "anime for sad Japanese nerds", "gay stuff", and "super creepy pervert series" have gone up significantly in production. (I refuse to use the proper terms for any of those "genres") |
| The anime for otaku have gone up because they are guaranteed profit. They are few, but they spend a lot of money and they are loyal. Even the infamous Haruhi Endless 8 DVDs sold well. I'm not sure if the original (manga adaptations don't count) adventure anime had a big space in the nineties. I can remember Escaflowne and it had mecha. |
m4rc0 said: The anime for otaku have gone up because they are guaranteed profit. They are few, but they spend a lot of money and they are loyal. Even the infamous Haruhi Endless 8 DVDs sold well. Yeah, I noticed that. I was laughing at all the people predicting it would be some catastrophe for the production company. Never, ever underestimate the stupidity of the average consumer. The Japanese salarymen running these businesses are a hell of a lot smarter than a bunch of pathetic anime nerds. |
| I wouldn't consider otaku average consumers. The average consumer spends money with various stuff. The anme otaku spends almost all his money on anime DVD and goods. They also like to collect stuff from shows they like so they might, for instance, buy 2 KOn! soundtrack CDs, one to hear and other to collect. Making shows for these guys is guaranteed success. The problem is that it creates a parasitic relationship between the industry and them. It would be good if they weren't a restricted group that isn't going to grow much, "freezing" the companies. The smarter ones will capitalize on the otaku while doing shows to a wider audience. That way they aren't stuck with the otaku. |
m4rc0 said: The smarter ones will capitalize on the otaku while doing shows to a wider audience. That way they aren't stuck with the otaku. That's extremely difficult, if not impossible in some cases. What shows have even managed to do this? |
| Not the shows. The companies. They'll do shows for otakus, capitalize and then invest this money in bigger franchises, which will have a broader audience and will allow them to grow. They could use the money to do more otaku shows, but as I theorized, it's probably a stagnant target public and tehy would probably be making their investments compete for the otaku money. But I think its possible to have otaku shows that appeal to a wider audience. I don't really know about its reception in Japan, but Clannad After Story (originated from a VN) made success among anime fans I know that don't like the average otaku anime. Higurashi and Umineko are also adapted from VNs and the public, at least in the west, was kinda broad. And it's possible to hijack an anime for the wider audience and add a lot of lures for the otaku. The producers just need to be talented so that they don't ruin the story in the process. |
m4rc0 said: Not the shows. The companies. They'll do shows for otakus, capitalize and then invest this money in bigger franchises, which will have a broader audience and will allow them to grow. They could use the money to do more otaku shows, but as I theorized, it's probably a stagnant target public and tehy would probably be making their investments compete for the otaku money. But then what is the point? They make money on the nerdy Jap loser shows, and then proceed to lose all of them on the serious, more mature stuff? In the process, they neither make money (primary objective) nor make many good shows. (secondary objective) m4rco said: But I think its possible to have otaku shows that appeal to a wider audience. I don't really know about its reception in Japan, but Clannad After Story (originated from a VN) made success among anime fans I know that don't like the average otaku anime. Higurashi and Umineko are also adapted from VNs and the public, at least in the west, was kinda broad. Didn't Higurashi and Umineko both seriously suck? And wasn't Clannad a show very specifically for sad Japanese nerds? I had no idea it had non-Jnerd elements at all. m4rco said: And it's possible to hijack an anime for the wider audience and add a lot of lures for the otaku. The producers just need to be talented so that they don't ruin the story in the process. Again, I don't think this is the least bit compatible, or at least not as simple as you believe. For instance, I have seen a lot of more mature, interesting series that throw in softcore porn shots ("fan service"), objects of lust, and/or "cute" moments, and it does nothing for their sales figures. As long as the series on the whole is treated in an adult, intelligent manner, it won't do well. |
YoungVagabond said: But then what is the point? They make money on the nerdy Jap loser shows, and then proceed to lose all of them on the serious, more mature stuff? In the process, they neither make money (primary objective) nor make many good shows. (secondary objective) Well, you are assuming two thigs: a) It's going to be a serious and mature series. b) It's going to fail. If you read again the post where I proposed it, you'll see that I wrote shows that appeal to a wider audience, which doesn't mean only mature stuff. They could do a sports anime or and adventure anime, for instance. Those shows, unlike most otaku anime (teenagers in a school setting), need good animation, which is expensive. Also, I don't know why you are expecting every mature anime (and I'd like to point that they don't need to be serious) to loose money. We don't have data on the companies' profits nor how much income each series brought, but the fact that 17% of the shows in this season are mature makes me think that they might profit somehow. YoungVagabond said: Didn't Higurashi and Umineko both seriously suck? And wasn't Clannad a show very specifically for sad Japanese nerds? I had no idea it had non-Jnerd elements at all. I didn't watch Higurashi or Umineko, so I don't have a personal opinion. I know many that loved it and many that found it entertaining. Taste is personal. My point was that they are series based on VNs that are made for the fans (otaku) but also reach a lot of other people. I didn't watch Clannad after story too, but I've seen many people that don't usually watch otaku anime say that it was very good. Not all anime targeted primarily to otaku are crap. Not all are restricted to their initial target either. YoungVagabond said: Again, I don't think this is the least bit compatible, or at least not as simple as you believe. For instance, I have seen a lot of more mature, interesting series that throw in softcore porn shots ("fan service"), objects of lust, and/or "cute" moments, and it does nothing for their sales figures. As long as the series on the whole is treated in an adult, intelligent manner, it won't do well. Again, you are assuming I'm only talking about mature series. I don't really have an example about inserting otaku fan-service, but I have examples of the hijack I mentioned. If you read modern shounen you'll notice that the characters are all bishounen (in the past we had the token bishounen) and in many cases you can find a lot of yaoi undertones. That is done to appeal to the female audience AND to fuel the fujoshis' yaoi fantasies. It makes a lot of girls watch the shows. Hell, even tokusatsu has it. They hire skinny model types that don't act nearly as though as the old gen actors did just to appeal to the japanese girls. |
m4rc0 said: Well, you are assuming two thigs: a) It's going to be a serious and mature series. b) It's going to fail. If you read again the post where I proposed it, you'll see that I wrote shows that appeal to a wider audience, which doesn't mean only mature stuff. They could do a sports anime or and adventure anime, for instance. Those shows, unlike most otaku anime (teenagers in a school setting), need good animation, which is expensive. Also, I don't know why you are expecting every mature anime (and I'd like to point that they don't need to be serious) to loose money. We don't have data on the companies' profits nor how much income each series brought, but the fact that 17% of the shows in this season are mature makes me think that they might profit somehow. I see what you're saying about adding these "fanservice" elements to shounen or sports shows, not just interesting seinen. I partially agree with you there. However, serious, interesting shows DO lose money, and there's no way around that. You can see that in how horrible their DVD sales are, and how many planned sequels (Kaiji) fall through. As for why they continue being made? Hell, you might as well ask why action movies in Hollywood continue being made, when the genre is completely dead, and every picture loses millions of dollars. Some people are just fucking stubborn! Which is actually a good thing for me. m4rco said: I didn't watch Higurashi or Umineko, so I don't have a personal opinion. I know many that loved it and many that found it entertaining. Taste is personal. My point was that they are series based on VNs that are made for the fans (otaku) but also reach a lot of other people. I didn't watch Clannad after story too, but I've seen many people that don't usually watch otaku anime say that it was very good. Not all anime targeted primarily to otaku are crap. Not all are restricted to their initial target either. At some point when considering this question, you have to move beyond the "everyone's opinion/taste is valid!" position. Umeniko and Higurashi were fucking trash. Clannad was a purely Jnerd show. Thus, neither is good example of what you were trying to illustrate "a quality, mature show that incorporated Jnerd elements and was thus financially successful". m4rco said: Again, you are assuming I'm only talking about mature series. I don't really have an example about inserting otaku fan-service, but I have examples of the hijack I mentioned. If you read modern shounen you'll notice that the characters are all bishounen (in the past we had the token bishounen) and in many cases you can find a lot of yaoi undertones. That is done to appeal to the female audience AND to fuel the fujoshis' yaoi fantasies. It makes a lot of girls watch the shows. I'm not sure about this. I don't read Naruto, Bleach, or One Piece, but this doesn't seem to hold for Yankee-kun to Megane-chan (granted, the main character is a bit of a metrosexual, but no gay themes), or Beelzebub. (Not a fan of this manga by any means, but neither applies) Hell, even tokusatsu has it. They hire skinny model types that don't act nearly as though as the old gen actors did just to appeal to the japanese girls. What is tokusatsu, by the way? |
| "I see what you're saying about adding these "fanservice" elements to shounen or sports shows, not just interesting seinen. I partially agree with you there." That can be done, but it wasn't my point there. My point was: make money with anime for some niche, in this case, the otaku, since most are cheap to make. Then you use the money in series to wider audiences (these don't need to have fanservice, but they can have it) to make even more money. "However, serious, interesting shows DO lose money, and there's no way around that. You can see that in how horrible their DVD sales are, and how many planned sequels (Kaiji) fall through." I don't know. Ayakashi JCH's last arc generated a spin-off anime (Mononoke). Aoi Bungaku' first arc was made into a movie for theathers. And I'm just naming the recent serious shows that I watched, because I can name a few mature anime that got sequels and that I know that sold DVDs. So, we both have examples. If we don't have the numbers of the industry as a whole we'll discuss it forever without reaching a conclusion. "At some point when considering this question, you have to move beyond the "everyone's opinion/taste is valid!" position. Umeniko and Higurashi were fucking trash. Clannad was a purely Jnerd show. Thus, neither is good example of what you were trying to illustrate "a quality, mature show that incorporated Jnerd elements and was thus financially successful". " That was never the point. The point was: they are shows that are made primarily for otaku, but have reached a broader group of people. At least that is what my observations tell me. Changing the subject from the actual topic and the point presented in the last paragraph. If I agree with what you wrote, what makes your opinion/taste valid? Are they more valid than the opinions/tastes of other friends of mine? "I'm not sure about this. I don't read Naruto, Bleach, or One Piece, but this doesn't seem to hold for Yankee-kun to Megane-chan (granted, the main character is a bit of a metrosexual, but no gay themes), or Beelzebub. (Not a fan of this manga by any means, but neither applies) " It's not gay themes. It's stuff like: Mr. Frodo, it's me, your Sam. Nothing gay per se, but you know that kind of stuff gives rise to interpretations, and they use that kind of stuff to lure girls. Also, a quick comparison between the chara design of the shounen characters in the 80's and early 90's and the current ones (forget One Piece though) will show a tendence towards more bishounen characteristics. Again, to lure the female audience. Tokusatsu = SFX series with real actors. Like Kaiju Movies (Godzilla) or super hero series and movies (Ultraman, Super Sentai, that Casshern movie). |
m4rc0 said: That can be done, but it wasn't my point there. My point was: make money with anime for some niche, in this case, the otaku, since most are cheap to make. Then you use the money in series to wider audiences (these don't need to have fanservice, but they can have it) to make even more money. This is also much easier said than done. As you said yourself, these Jnerds are very loyal to a brand. So while they will automatically hand over their greasy yen to a Key production, they are loathe to do so for Manglobe's Seiken no Blacksmith. And if they don't have the brand going for them, they are just one of many lousy, generic series, no? m4rco said: I don't know. Ayakashi JCH's last arc generated a spin-off anime (Mononoke). Aoi Bungaku' first arc was made into a movie for theathers. And I'm just naming the recent serious shows that I watched, because I can name a few mature anime that got sequels and that I know that sold DVDs. So, we both have examples. If we don't have the numbers of the industry as a whole we'll discuss it forever without reaching a conclusion. It's true that neither of us has definitive examples because of the scarcity of centralized numbers, but I think it's impossible to deny that the payoff function for a serious, mature show is far lower than some pandering Jnerd shit. m4rco said: That was never the point. The point was: they are shows that are made primarily for otaku, but have reached a broader group of people. At least that is what my observations tell me. Oh? I thought that was the whole point; that aside from pandering to Jnerds, they were also supposed to be good. m4rco said: Changing the subject from the actual topic and the point presented in the last paragraph. If I agree with what you wrote, what makes your opinion/taste valid? Are they more valid than the opinions/tastes of other friends of mine? I'm not talking about myself. I haven't seen any of those three shows. (Not that I need to with how predictable and crappy series with that animation style are) Instead, I'm considering people who don't classify themselves as "anime fanz!!!", watch a good deal of live action films, and are 20+ years old. By and large, they think Umeniko was one of the most hilariously bad series ever, Higurashi was mediocre or downright lousy, and Clannad was solidly a Jnerd show, even if an above average one in that genre. (Kind of like winning a medal at the Special Olympics) m4rco said: It's not gay themes. It's stuff like: Mr. Frodo, it's me, your Sam. Nothing gay per se, but you know that kind of stuff gives rise to interpretations, and they use that kind of stuff to lure girls. Also, a quick comparison between the chara design of the shounen characters in the 80's and early 90's and the current ones (forget One Piece though) will show a tendence towards more bishounen characteristics. Again, to lure the female audience. You're probably correct about this, but it's a long way off from what you're suggesting for an anime. (Not to mention, I can think of so many manga that use these elements AND are great comics, but attract few readers) m4rco said: Tokusatsu = SFX series with real actors. Like Kaiju Movies (Godzilla) or super hero series and movies (Ultraman, Super Sentai, that Casshern movie). I guess the Yatterman live action film would qualify too? |
| "This is also much easier said than done. As you said yourself, these Jnerds are very loyal to a brand. So while they will automatically hand over their greasy yen to a Key production, they are loathe to do so for Manglobe's Seiken no Blacksmith. " Is Key an animation studio now? From what I know they just do the visual novels... But that doesn't matter. We could use KyoAni instead of key. But the point there isn't the studios that already do anime for a wider audience doing otaku shows. It's the studios that do otaku shows using the money earned with them to to shows for a wider audience. That way they wouldn't be forever dependent of the loyalty of their otaku, which can be quite whimsical... On another note, I think that while otaku might not immediately give their money to a company that they don't "follow", they'll do it IF the show wins their hearts. And that's the risk of trying to appeal to them. They are quite whimsical. And as I wrote earlier, you might ruin a show trying to appeal to them. "It's true that neither of us has definitive examples because of the scarcity of centralized numbers, but I think it's impossible to deny that the payoff function for a serious, mature show is far lower than some pandering Jnerd shit." It depends. I think GITS: SAC might have made more money than most anime for otaku. But, if we stick to the SERIOUS mature shows, I think that what you wrote applies most of the time. But that doesn't mean that they aren't commercialy viable. We would need to see how much the company spent, how much it won in the DVD sales and from the sponsors and if it reached what they expected in terms of profit with that. "Instead, I'm considering people who don't classify themselves as "anime fanz!!!", watch a good deal of live action films, and are 20+ years old." Funny, I have friends that fit this category and liked Clannad after story and Higurashi (never talked about Umineko with them). Taste is a complicated thing. "Not that I need to with how predictable and crappy series with that animation style are" What do you mean with animation style? The animation style seems pretty normal to me. NO (or scarce) CG, no unusual FX... "You're probably correct about this, but it's a long way off from what you're suggesting for an anime. (Not to mention, I can think of so many manga that use these elements AND are great comics, but attract few readers)" There is no silver bullet in the market. It might not always work, but it works in many cases. That is why many try doing it. "I guess the Yatterman live action film would qualify too?" Absolutely. Cutie Honey live too. |
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