The Fall (A Persona 3 x Nocturne) Mafia Game game over, heroes win~

billyboyforever said:


Sure you did...
Admit it, you only happened to be right because I chose to be a traitor later on in the game. :P
How was my voting suspicious though?

SleepingBear said:

How about "Lynch train YEAAAH!!"? I actually considered killing you.

ChaosSaviour did well, interesting that his ability was relatively low risk.

Good game everyone, well done townies.

MrSantaEye said:
As a mafia I always tend to survive longer, but I am absolutely crap at late game, can't plan for shit. Anyways GG townies, when lupa accused me, I lived on deception from that point on wards anything I said was for deception, best mafia game I have ever played.

xanic said:
Everyone was adamant I was mafia :|

coromandel said:


Sorry about that. xD

MrSantaEye said:
I think he didn't have a choice?

xanic said:

ahh, I think I read the phrase wrong then

ChaosSaviour said:


no you"re right.

Ability:You will begin the game aligned with the town. However, I will send you a message when either faction has one member left. You may then choose to join that one or hold out for the other. If you join neither you will remain aligned with the town.

i guess he wants to feel the thrill of being underdog?

xanic said:

But surely he knew that I was out for his blood?

ChaosSaviour said:


you being alone will not scare anyone.

xanic said:


let me see.

i had continuous conversations with billy about the matter :3

I could rally support if I tried really hard.

But I didn't need to, did I

ChaosSaviour said:


fine fine just ask billy about it

xanic said:

All I wanted to know was why billy thought it was a good idea :P

I'm not trying to demean you or anything.

If it seemed like that, I'm extremely sorry.

xanic said:

But surely he knew that I was out for his blood?

billyboyforever said:

Who wants to be under a leader that is out for their blood? And I didn't really have use of my original abilities, and this was a way to make things a little more interesting. Besides, I've never been mafia before so I finally got to try it out for a bit.

Gentaro_Kisaragi said:
congrats suzune

cause of this game I'm now playing persona 3, you should feel proud

Soren333 said:


On what console?

Gentaro_Kisaragi said:

I'm using a psp emulator

Soren333 said:
Where do you download your psp games?

Caeca said:
Good job guys. :D You were wonderful xanic! tl;dr, but it looked awesome!

Soren333 said:


I have some thoughts to add to what you just said.

To sacrifice a mafia buddy to gain trust from the town is not an uncommon strategy. But when we look at this strategy in place with lupadim, why would he want to sacrifice the disguiser? A role which can create confusion amongst the town. Now, I'm not entirely sure what this role can do, but it's almost definite that it is along the lines of something like hiding someone's role. This ability would prove to be rather useful for the mafias. So why would a nocturne sacrifice such an important role? One thing that I can think of is maybe the disguiser plants a fake role on someone when the disguiser dies. So maybe lupadim will try to lead a lynch on someone that the disguiser planted a fake role on the next day, thus further supporting that lupadim is a townie. Or at the very least, not a nocturne villain.

Now that that has been said. It becomes kinda clear as to how lupadim was pushing rather hard for Caeca's lynch. His reason behind lynching Caeca was, in his eyes at least, "reasonable". But rather, to me at least, it feels more like a hunch. To lynch someone purely because they were replaced? How does that make lupadim assume with almost absolute certainty that caeca is a mafia?

The way lupadim approached that lynch was sketchy to say the least. He claims his reason was reasonable. He placed a vote. When no one else voted, he pushed forward. Prodding other players along with "I'll take full responsibility if he turns out to be townie". And with this, it worked. DoubleC was hooked, and reeled into the lynch. And DoubleC was only the ignition to the fire that lead to others to jump on the bandwagon. This is the crucial thing here. When you start a lynch, there's usually some quiet time and uncertainty that passes until someone takes the bait (which kinda makes me think that DoubleC was a part of lupadim's plans to get people to vote for caeca) and votes as well. This triggers a ripple effect and influences more players to vote, and so it did.

And now lets take a look at the course of the caeca lynch. I myself, wasn't entirely convinced with lupadim's redirection of attention from xanic to caeca (not saying that I think that xanic is mafia). Thus when I saw chaossaviour acting like a mafia, I called him out and voted for him. Now this is where something ticks me off as strange about lupadim. He agrees with my reason for voting for chaossaviour, but then he says that I shouldn't vote for him now. But why shouldn't I vote for him now if I think he is mafia? And I don't think lupadim answered me on this. This demonstrates that lupadim was rather adamant with the caeca lynch to the point that he would almost push aside suspicions for other players being mafia.

Now then, the final part. Where lupadim fished out a list of players from caeca. Caeca gave in and presented us with a list of players. But why? Caeca presented a list of players, and in his owns words, because it was "as requested", and made no further comments about the list. This is rather odd. What was the purpose of the list? Actually, let me rephrase that into a better question. As a mafia, caeca presented us with a list of players but added no further comments about it, so what are the reasons, intent and motive behind giving us such a list? Red herring to cause confusion? And upon receiving such list, lupadim said that he was 100% certain that caeca was mafia now. Surely there could still have been room for doubt. Not even 1% of doubt? Later on when lupadim was replying to Lucian, lupa said that Lucian must be mafia because lucian was certain about some innocents and some mafias. Using this against lupadim, how could lupadim have claimed that caeca was 100% mafia if lupadim isn't mafia himself? It's such a bold claim to say with 100% certainty that someone is mafia.

Upon receiving such a list, lupadim thanks caeca and lupa now directs his utmost attention to everyone on that list. Asserting that he will stalk each and every post made by these users in this game thread and to also count their posts. Lupadim also deduces that there must at least be one mafia in that list. Now when I place this piece of information into my theory, it seems as though lupadim will accuse one of these players to be a mafia the next day. And the player will be in fact a mafia. Because the disguiser has planted a fake role onto this player that lupadim will pick out. Now I know how crazy this sounds, or maybe not, you decide, and I too am not entirely convinced about this theory. Since I think that I've been embedded with the assumption that lupadim and caeca are both noturne villains, so how ever I try to interpret lupadim's actions I can only see it in the light that it is part of their nocturne plan to victory. So please, can everyone pitch in their thoughts on my theory and tell me how crazy it is and how it would not work so that I can free from such an embedded mindset.

But if we accept my theory, I'm almost certain (saying almost because I can't be 100% certain) that lupadim is either:
- A nocturne villain who sacrificed the disguiser for the purpose of leading another lynch the next day on someone who the disguiser has planted a fake role on, thus supporting that lupadim is a townie. (Though perhaps I should of kept this to myself and observe lupadim's actions the next day, but this is just a current theory of mine which could still be entirely false.)
- Or lupadim is an investigative role and investigated cruz/caeca during the night.

My whole theory is based around a mere claim that lupadim made of being "100% certain" and the subtle way lupadim went about forcing this lynch. I tend to over think things sometimes, so I wouldn't be surprised if this entire analysis is false. But like pdot mentioned (I think it was pdot), sometimes its the little things that tells us more than how it may seem.