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#1
Oct 28, 2009 4:13 PM

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So both Sony and Mircosoft, have been talking that the next generation of game systems may very well be download only and not use discs at all. Blu ray may just be the last Disc we will ever see. This is basically already starting now. I can see alot of pros to this but alot of cons aswell.

Pros:
No waiting on pre orders or snail mail
No out of stock or limited copies.
Cheaper media (maybe)
Easyier for developing media ( less limitations)
No scratched, damaged or lost discs.

Cons:
No sense of ownership
losing consumers who doesn't have high speed internet, or internet all together
Loss of backwards compatibility or being forced to rebuy old media.
potential loss of entire catalog of media because of system failer
Maybe more hacking and pirating.
and being limited to amount of media u could own based on how big you got your hard drive.

So what do you think?
Modified by Jigero, Oct 28, 2009 4:30 PM
It doesn't think, it doesn't feel, it doesn't laugh or cry..... All it does from dusk till dawn is make the soldiers die.
 
#2
Oct 28, 2009 4:23 PM

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I think: not yet there.

 
#3
Oct 28, 2009 4:33 PM

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well, iTunes already took the Movies/Music part...
 
#4
Oct 28, 2009 4:35 PM
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To actually answer the bloody post: I don't really think discs/physical media are going to die out anytime soon. There are still people willing to pay for things and actually hold them and "own" them in the physical sense.

There's also the fact that not all media is the same. Gamers seem perfectly willing to buy hard copies; music fans seem more likely to download albums/songs and then support their favorite artists through merchandise and concert tickets.

All this, of course, is just my opinion ♥


Mod edit: Quoted deleted post.
Modified by Asako, Oct 28, 2009 7:44 PM
 
#5
Oct 28, 2009 7:47 PM

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Thread cleaned up. Do keep trolling to a minimum. Report posts you think need to be moved, instead of posting "wrong section" etc. Also try not to reply to such posts because then I just have to delete them all.

Anyway, on topic: I do believe blu-ray will be the last optical media we see in the mainstream market (despite development on HVD etc) because solid state is rapidly advancing, so it will replace optical media for physical distribution, though I do believe online distribution will take over a large portion of the market. It won't replace all of it, but I do see retail stores for games/videos as we know them drying up in the future as everything moves online.
 
#6
Oct 28, 2009 7:58 PM

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I have to agree with Asako. After all that time and money was spent figting out the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray war, it was all for a relatively short lifespan compared to previous media, such as magnetic tape and regular cd/dvd's.

As fast as technology is moving, especially in the memory department, the need for easily damaged and expensive to produce media is falling fast. For physical, transportable storage, I see flash media, like traveldrives and sd cards, taking over. The amount of memory available has greatly improved, they are more durable, and the cost is dropping pretty fast. I would also suspect it is easier and cheaper to produce a reader without so many moving parts.
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#7
Oct 28, 2009 8:04 PM

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The development of this will make stores like Gamestop cry.

So much for buying/selling used games.
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#8
Oct 28, 2009 8:23 PM

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KyuuA4 said:
The development of this will make stores like Gamestop cry.

So much for buying/selling used games.


Well that is actually one of the major problems I forgot to address, places like game stop and Fye and what not are major players, and to just kill them off would be a huge problem, I'm thinking they will have to cut some kinda deal with these companies to get the conversion to completely direct download.

Also Disney is coming out with a system called Key Chest next year, that will allow you to download any media and use it on any system (computer, TV, playstation, etc) and it's based on the fact that you don't buy the media anymore, you buy it's digital right's. If this happens to do well, this may very well be the way we handle all digital downloads.
Modified by Jigero, Oct 28, 2009 8:28 PM
It doesn't think, it doesn't feel, it doesn't laugh or cry..... All it does from dusk till dawn is make the soldiers die.
 
#9
Oct 28, 2009 8:58 PM

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Jigero said:
KyuuA4 said:
The development of this will make stores like Gamestop cry.

So much for buying/selling used games.


Well that is actually one of the major problems I forgot to address, places like game stop and Fye and what not are major players, and to just kill them off would be a huge problem, I'm thinking they will have to cut some kinda deal with these companies to get the conversion to completely direct download.
That's also a problem for consumers: it's rather difficult (and occasionally impossible) to transfer ownership of something that you only own the digital rights to.

Anyway, I do not think that physical media will be rendered obsolete any time in the foreseeable future; while it is very likely that digital media will grow as a proportion of the market, there is a large aesthetic value to physical media. Simply put, you can't hold a digital copy, and it's much harder to show off - a digital copy simply doesn't have the same sense of possession as a physical copy.
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Oct 28, 2009 9:31 PM

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I do not see too much of a problem with this, these stores will have to adapt or die. They have no say in the market, they are at the mercy of the market. Look what happened to a lot of the brick and mortar video stores. There used to be one about every mile here in Phoenix, now, I couldn't tell you where the nearest Blockbuster or Hollywood video is.

The American society has become very focused on disposable consumables. The need for convenience and function far outweighs the need for physical possession, and as the current generation grows into the consumers of tomorrow, more accustomed to downloading and instant access, the faster physical media's presence will shrink.

Will it disappear completely? No, even though a lot of people have computers and internet service, many more don't. There is still a large market for physical media, but that will steadily shrink, just as the market for vinyl albums has. Even as the market shrinks in the private sector, though, the commercia sector will remain steady for quite awhile afterwards.
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Oct 28, 2009 10:05 PM

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It will makes things easier to play all games instead of how some old games are and their rarity. However, with that said it will negatively affect the gamers who believe in the collectors mentality and those who dont have regular or high speed internet access.
 
Oct 28, 2009 10:10 PM

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Well I think a major bench mark for this will be how well the PSP go does. It is basically the first real game system to only use download only.
It doesn't think, it doesn't feel, it doesn't laugh or cry..... All it does from dusk till dawn is make the soldiers die.
 
Oct 28, 2009 10:29 PM

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It might disappear eventually, but I don't think it will before... a couple of decades maybe?
Ofc the downloadable software market will grow while physical medias selling will drop, but there's still plenty of clients either wiling or "forced" to buy hard copies of games for the media to just disappear in the near future.
 
Oct 28, 2009 11:02 PM

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Only thing that will bother me is no sense of ownership, and no BC.
Discs > Downloads
 
Oct 28, 2009 11:51 PM

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There will always be collectors and people that like physical product, especially when it comes to print media (a lot of blogs are talking about the supposed death of print media, but rather than a "death," I think it's a natural slowing of consumption). I know too many people that prefer to read a physical book as opposed to reading a book on some sort of screen (including comics), and a lot of people enjoy having a physical library. I know I do. :)


Jigero said:

Pros:
Cheaper media (maybe)

Cons:
Maybe more hacking and pirating.


I think you can count on both of this things. So much of the cover price of a product depends on the cost of materials and making the materials, shipping, storage, and other expenses such as inventory tax. So naturally, digital media is cheaper.

I also think that hacking is a natural progression. The more you try to restrict something, the more people are going to be interested in breaking that restriction.
 
Oct 29, 2009 12:45 AM
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I like to actually have the things in my hands. I already got a huge collection of games etc so I hope it wont die anywhere in the future :<
Well, I would only buy digital media if it would be waaaay cheaper.
]
 
Oct 29, 2009 4:35 AM

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Jigero said:
Cons:
No sense of ownership
losing consumers who doesn't have high speed internet, or internet all together
Loss of backwards compatibility or being forced to rebuy old media.
potential loss of entire catalog of media because of system failer
Maybe more hacking and pirating.
and being limited to amount of media u could own based on how big you got your hard drive.

So what do you think?


Debatable. Having games digitally is arguably safer since damastroyed discs can just be redownloaded at no extra cost. As for losing customers, I'd probably be more inclined to buy games (assuming I couldn't pirate) online since it's much easier to impulsively click 'buy' than it is to go to a store and buy a physical copy. I don't really care much for having a physical copy since I don't partake in boasting.
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Oct 29, 2009 4:48 AM

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I beleive that while new media supports may not be produced those we have already will continue to be sold. Even if itunes takes the movies/music, CDs, DVDs and LPs are still produced and very loved (LPs are back!)
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Oct 29, 2009 6:32 AM

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now they are gonna make gamestop into a downloadcenter? it would be interesting if this will pan out. i highly doubt that they will go to DL games in the next 10-15 years.
 
Oct 29, 2009 6:54 AM

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It would encourage far too much piracy IMO.

It'd be like
"damnit I have no money on paypal for a few weeks, how do I get this game that's just been released?
*goes to friend*

"can I borrow some money for this game?"

*friend sends link to torrent of the exact thing you'd pay for*

"hmm... well I don't condone piracy but I really want it so just this once"

Or something like that.


Also as others have stated the collectors mentality, people with low speed/no internet etc will miss out.
I'd miss out because of living in regional Australia, I can only use 25gb of internet a month because of my internet plan (can't upgrade out here yet and probably not for a few years either).
Shared amongst a 5 person family, that's not much.
I'd probably be wanting 2 - 3 games a month and nowadays games go well over 3gb, so yeah, It'd be much easier to get a disc or other physical media. (I'd like to see them using these SD cards for games/movies actually...)

There are many gamers out in areas like mine, so the companies would lose a lot of money there.
 
Oct 29, 2009 7:00 AM

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The necessary bandwidth isn't readily available or affordable enough yet, especially outside of the United States, something I learned when I went overseas for a year. I'm also worried of what will happen when my HDD dies and the company that produced the media I want to re-download isn't in business anymore, or not concerned with their old products. Lastly, I think consumers are too materialistic to abandon physical media anytime soon, as others have said.


 
Oct 29, 2009 8:48 AM

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I think physical media will be around for a long time. Its easy to justify charging 40-50 bucks if the game or program is on a disk or cartridge. Licenses can still be made from 3rd party game developers for game consoles. Plus some people feel better just having something backed up on a separate physical medium seeing how computers and hardrives can sometimes mess up.
 
Oct 29, 2009 10:16 AM

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Kurtz said:
It would encourage far too much piracy IMO.

I don't see how it would.

 
Oct 29, 2009 11:11 AM

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I would hate hard copies to disappear, because I, for one, love that sense of ownership. I mean, sure, downloading is all good and stuff, but going back to the cons, those lacking high speed internet or lacking internet altogether will surely struggle/miss out if games were to go completely download-only.

:(
 
Nov 5, 2009 1:33 AM

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downloading a 4gb to 16gb game for each person could be a killer. especially if you have 1.5MB DSL or equivalent. Same with a lot of HD movies that are blu-ray quality. The sizes become much larger as the quality goes up.

I like to own physical copies of some things. more than likely we will continue to have a mixed media like we do now. with the online growing.

There are some issues with selling movies and such online. Such as should you have to authenticate through the Internet that you own a legitimate copy of the film/game every time you try and watch it or play it? If they don't do something like this then the door to piracy becomes much wider. And if they decide to do it then it consumers not want to bother. After all if you decide to cancel your Internet connection for a few months because times are tough you just lost your movie and game collection as well?
 
Nov 5, 2009 3:01 AM
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No physical media is a good idea, then companies can try to DRM/watermark their shit even more.
 
Nov 5, 2009 6:12 AM

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I think its way to early to be thinking about the next generation while this one is still to young and strong. Plus there all the negatives listed in the OP, and if your system were to shut down while downloading you would have to start completly over and also have to repay for it wouldn't you? Or am I just stupid.
 
Nov 5, 2009 6:14 AM

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sci-fi authors said we'll have flying cars by now. but i havent seen one?? so yeah physical media is here to stay.
 
Nov 5, 2009 6:43 AM

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I'll support physical media against the tyranny of digital. I prefer owning something I really like, especially with music.
 
Nov 5, 2009 12:21 PM

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Frito said:
sci-fi authors said we'll have flying cars by now. but i havent seen one?? so yeah physical media is here to stay.


Actually we do have flying cars, they're just expensive and impractical.

and download only is already starting to happen, it's only logical to kill off physical media altogether, more so then ever with the going green movement, CDs or discs probably make up the bulk of our E-waste. There is actually huge benefit for everyone to get rid of Discs. So your analogy isn't really fair or accurate.
Modified by Jigero, Nov 5, 2009 12:27 PM
It doesn't think, it doesn't feel, it doesn't laugh or cry..... All it does from dusk till dawn is make the soldiers die.
 
Nov 5, 2009 12:50 PM

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Maora said:
well, iTunes already took the Movies/Music part...


iTunes, Microsoft's Zune market, and various other programs offer download only music. However, CD's and many other physical forms of music continue to be produced, with no signs of them stopping. Although a next generation system did take the leap, I would hardly call it the fall of physical media. I mean, they will still make many games for all the major home consoles, just like they will still make music, movies and whatever else they already do on discs and such.
That said, the new PSP actually looks sexy as hell, and I've always had a pretty big hardon for sony. I don't know about this download only business, if not only because I can see it being very glitchy for some time. Which is another reason I don;t think we'll see physical media die out anytime soon. I think the majority will make the jump once a minority of companies have worked almost all the errors out of it. Which won't be immediately, I imagine.
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Nov 5, 2009 1:30 PM

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Ezekiel said:
The necessary bandwidth isn't readily available or affordable enough yet, especially outside of the United States, something I learned when I went overseas for a year. I'm also worried of what will happen when my HDD dies and the company that produced the media I want to re-download isn't in business anymore, or not concerned with their old products. Lastly, I think consumers are too materialistic to abandon physical media anytime soon, as others have said.

But you do realize that optical discs also don't last forever? I have few years old CDs/DVDs that are either unreadable or read very slowly due to the drive struggling with every bit doing error correction or sth.
Not to mention they are easily breakable and scratchable.

 
Nov 5, 2009 2:33 PM

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They ll lose lots of money cuz not everybody have (fast) internet and it ll be easier and faster to get them files online if you download ilegally. Btw fok microsoft, Sony all da way..
 
Nov 5, 2009 2:48 PM

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Daijin said:
They ll lose lots of money cuz not everybody have (fast) internet and it ll be easier and faster to get them files online if you download ilegally. Btw fok microsoft, Sony all da way..


What are you trying to say?
 
Nov 5, 2009 3:15 PM
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I can't see a conversion being viable, at least not for a long time. Physical media gives a degree of ownership that DLM can't match. They would also have to drop the price rather dramatically to compensate for this. Considering it's becoming more difficult to meet the demands of a system for a particular game (PS3), they would be making less money on a process that produces a heavy strain developmentally. It's not like the actual manufacturing aspect is a costly process. Plus, these consoles are only expected to have a ten year life span. Who knows what the next generation will bring to the table in terms of capabilities.
 
Nov 5, 2009 3:42 PM

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corbenic said:
Ezekiel said:
The necessary bandwidth isn't readily available or affordable enough yet, especially outside of the United States, something I learned when I went overseas for a year. I'm also worried of what will happen when my HDD dies and the company that produced the media I want to re-download isn't in business anymore, or not concerned with their old products. Lastly, I think consumers are too materialistic to abandon physical media anytime soon, as others have said.
But you do realize that optical discs also don't last forever? I have few years old CDs/DVDs that are either unreadable or read very slowly due to the drive struggling with every bit doing error correction or sth.
Not to mention they are easily breakable and scratchable.
Which is why optional installs should become more common. Wait, you mean deterioration due to age and temperature alone? I didn't realize my games were in jeopardy no matter how carefully I handled them.


 
Nov 5, 2009 4:00 PM

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Yes, that's what I mean.
Pros and cons to everything, really.

 
Nov 5, 2009 4:38 PM
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Jigero said:
and download only is already starting to happen, it's only logical to kill off physical media altogether, more so then ever with the going green movement, CDs or discs probably make up the bulk of our E-waste. There is actually huge benefit for everyone to get rid of Discs.
The "green movement" is a load of nonsense, for the most part anyway. And even if it wasn't, I still live "greener" than your average person without even really giving a shit about it.
Ezekiel said:
I didn't realize my games were in jeopardy no matter how carefully I handled them.
You didn't?
 
Nov 5, 2009 5:31 PM

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Jigero said:

and download only is already starting to happen, it's only logical to kill off physical media altogether, more so then ever with the going green movement, CDs or discs probably make up the bulk of our E-waste. There is actually huge benefit for everyone to get rid of Discs. So your analogy isn't really fair or accurate.

No they don't. Used computer monitors, televisions, typewriters and larger electronics make up much more of our E-waste than CD's. Killing off CD's won't necessarily help the environment at all, because the electricity used in keeping additional servers up to have downloadable games does more damage to the environment (oil power, nuclear power) than throwing out CD's.
 
Nov 5, 2009 5:45 PM

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Sure, it's going to happen. We all know that technology is going to get smaller and faster, is this a surprise? Tell me when data storage is breaking the laws of physics, and I'll be surprised.

Some people like the sense of ownership; some people still collect vinyls. That's irrelevant to the discussion of whether more efficient technologies will or will not be implemented; they will. Absolutely.

As for game shops closing down, so what? If they can't keep up with the times, that's what they deserve. You'd have a hard time living off a rotary phone business nowadays, that's how it works. Businesses are supposed to change in the face of new technologies and innovations; if they don't, their existence is superfluous.
 
Nov 5, 2009 5:49 PM

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Not going to happen. There will always be a niche for physical media.

For example: while CD sales have fallen quite a bit, vinyl sales have risen. Actually, I'm planning on getting a turntable before too long myself, and starting a record collection.
"When he will, the weary world
Of the senses closely curled
Like a serpent round his heart
Shakes herself and stands apart."
- A.C., Equinox I/I
 
Nov 5, 2009 5:52 PM

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Frito said:
sci-fi authors said we'll have flying cars by now. but i havent seen one?? so yeah physical media is here to stay.
Are magnetic levitating (maglev) trains close to the deal? There's currently in commercial in Shanghai, Japan, and probably a few other places. Their speed is faster due to the lack of friction, but there are still air resistance that stops the train from going too fast. Nonetheless, they're technically "flying". Just not like 20 feet above the air. In which case why not just use airplanes instead of cars? It's pretty silly to have big wheels when the majority of the time will be spent in air. There's no doubt smaller airplanes which can technically fit the role as a flying car but like someone said, it's expensive as hell and isn't really worth the trouble. Your ego would feel 10x more intense if you had a bigger personal plane anyways.

Regarding this topic, yes. It will happen eventually. Just like corbenic said though, it's not quite there yet.
 
Nov 5, 2009 6:12 PM

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Hraesvelgr said:
Ezekiel said:
I didn't realize my games were in jeopardy no matter how carefully I handled them.
You didn't?
Well, I did know they slowly deteriorate, like all media. But I didn't think their lifespans were limited to only a few years. This hobby suddenly seems less appealing.


 
Nov 6, 2009 8:29 AM

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hikky said:
Businesses are supposed to change in the face of new technologies and innovations; if they don't, their existence is superfluous.

If only record labels and movie studios realized that.
Clinging to old business models inhibits the progress somewhat.

rTz said:
Not going to happen. There will always be a niche for physical media.

For example: while CD sales have fallen quite a bit, vinyl sales have risen. Actually, I'm planning on getting a turntable before too long myself, and starting a record collection.

But we don't collect and use audio recording tapes for example. VHS was newer but it also already died. Everything does eventually. Vinyls were lucky.

 
Nov 6, 2009 8:40 AM

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Ezekiel said:
Well, I did know they slowly deteriorate, like all media. But I didn't think their lifespans were limited to only a few years. This hobby suddenly seems less appealing.

Hey, it's not like they will suddenly die on you within few years, there's no reason to panic now. ;) It just may happen, and the older they are the bigger the chance it will.
Also, I don't know how recordable discs compare to the ones produced with the matrix (originals you buy), I imagine the latter are less prone to deterioration.

Pretty much the best way to protect the data is redundancy.

 
Nov 6, 2009 12:27 PM

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Skies said:
Jigero said:

and download only is already starting to happen, it's only logical to kill off physical media altogether, more so then ever with the going green movement, CDs or discs probably make up the bulk of our E-waste. There is actually huge benefit for everyone to get rid of Discs. So your analogy isn't really fair or accurate.

No they don't. Used computer monitors, televisions, typewriters and larger electronics make up much more of our E-waste than CD's. Killing off CD's won't necessarily help the environment at all, because the electricity used in keeping additional servers up to have downloadable games does more damage to the environment (oil power, nuclear power) than throwing out CD's.


based on what? do you think CD's appear magically? I'm pretty sure the massive manufacturing required to make CD's eats up alot more power and resources then a server room. Vast amounts of silicon, plastics and metals go into making CDs every year, All which don't bio degrade. A server room can service 1000's of people, where as you have to make 1000's of CD's to provide the same service. Not only that you have to make the boxes to put the CD's in,and print the labels that go on to the boxes.
Modified by Jigero, Nov 6, 2009 12:34 PM
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Nov 6, 2009 12:34 PM
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I dont really think so. People that dont use the internet are still all over and cutting out disc's isnt really smart from a marketing standpoint.
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Nov 6, 2009 12:50 PM

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corbenic said:
hikky said:
Businesses are supposed to change in the face of new technologies and innovations; if they don't, their existence is superfluous.

If only record labels and movie studios realized that.
Clinging to old business models inhibits the progress somewhat.

rTz said:
Not going to happen. There will always be a niche for physical media.

For example: while CD sales have fallen quite a bit, vinyl sales have risen. Actually, I'm planning on getting a turntable before too long myself, and starting a record collection.

But we don't collect and use audio recording tapes for example. VHS was newer but it also already died. Everything does eventually. Vinyls were lucky.


Are we talking about analog vs digital, or about strictly physical vs virtual? DVDs, CDs, and Blue-Ray disks and the like are physical/digital, so physical media still exists in that regard.

I still think there is going to be a niche for physical media. You can't download jewel cases, nor posters, etc, which are often packaged with music.
"When he will, the weary world
Of the senses closely curled
Like a serpent round his heart
Shakes herself and stands apart."
- A.C., Equinox I/I
 
Nov 6, 2009 2:14 PM

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rTz said:
Are we talking about analog vs digital, or about strictly physical vs virtual? DVDs, CDs, and Blue-Ray disks and the like are physical/digital, so physical media still exists in that regard.

I still think there is going to be a niche for physical media. You can't download jewel cases, nor posters, etc, which are often packaged with music.

I missed your point due to not reading that post of yours carefully enough before.

I pretty much agree. Probably, sooner or later, downloadable content will dominate over physical distribution, but some niche demand for the latter will remain for a long time (most likely at least).

However, there might be a point in the future when that niche won't be big enough for distributors to make the effort to supply the physical product. Or they will be doing that only occasionally, when they feel that sales will be big enough to justify it.

It would really suck if there were no more printed books, or if they were small, limited and expensive editions because of ebooks dominating the market. Don't see it happening in a foreseeable future though.

 
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