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Finding the number of anime fans worldwide (100% Less Math Edition)

Poll: Quick, before you read... how many anime fans do you think there are?


#1
Jun 18, 2014 9:28 PM
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Okay, so I had an entire topic written out for this thing and my computer decided to crash RIGHT BEFORE I HIT SUBMIT. I mean, I understand bad luck but... seriously? *sigh*

Basically, I'm not even going to bother explaining too many things now. I'm just going to show you my sources and do the calculations ASAP before anything too unlucky happens. :P

Be sure to tell me if you want a math explanation, but be warned that it's kind of long.

-------

http://www.herdcensus.com/
Info used: number of American bronies, percent of bronies that are American, percent of bronies that like anime, percent of bronies that are furries.

https://sites.google.com/site/anthropomorphicresearch/past-results/furry-fiesta-2013
Info used: percent of furries that are bronies.

http://www.klisoura.com/ot_furrysurvey2011.php
Info used: percent of furries that like anime.

-------

The formula I'm using to calculate this can be simplified into the following formula (I won't bother explaining how I got it, unless you REALLY want a math lecture):

A = Bx/y

A = Anime fan population
B = Brony population
x = bronies as a percent of anime fans
y = anime fans as a percent of bronies

Now, how I got the number for x (percentage of anime fans who are also bronies) is... too complex to explain without taking up a few paragraphs of blah, honestly. It's just... let's just say that's why I needed all those sources instead of just one. I'll just pretend I explained it and move on. >.>

Solving the equation, we end up with:

15.1 million to 68.9 million

The number is almost definitely above 15.1 million (there are around 20 million anime fans in America alone, according to a quick Google search), so I'll go with the number in the middle of the bell curve, which is the most likely value for the number of anime fans worldwide: 42,000,000

What do you think?
Modified by Ricequake, Jun 19, 2014 1:19 AM
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#2
Jun 18, 2014 9:31 PM
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Its clearly over 9000

its the only objective way to answer.
 
#3
Jun 18, 2014 9:34 PM
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What in the..
 
#4
Jun 18, 2014 10:50 PM
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Why that wide range?? It's not the problem having a range, but a wide one... It's beetwen 1 and 9999999999. So of course you are right...

And what pretentious(furry,etc = all anime fans), damn, troll!!

Well, 54M, nice, but i don't agree, at least 1% people watch anime... So it's at least 700M.

See ya.
 
#5
Jun 19, 2014 12:01 AM
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goldslash said:


Well, 54M, nice, but i don't agree, at least 1% people watch anime... So it's at least 700M.


1% of 7 billion is 70 million..
 
#6
Jun 19, 2014 12:41 AM
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goldslash said:
Why that wide range?? It's not the problem having a range, but a wide one... It's beetwen 1 and 9999999999. So of course you are right...

And what pretentious(furry,etc = all anime fans), damn, troll!!

Well, 54M, nice, but i don't agree, at least 1% people watch anime... So it's at least 700M.

See ya.


I assume you're asking for a detailed mathematical explanation? Very well. You've left me no choice.

Basically, this works like 3 overlapping rings. One ring is furries, one is bronies, and one is anime fans. Why the other two? Because unlike certain fandoms *cough all the others cough*, the Bronies and Furries actually HOLD surveys, and the Bronies have a 95% accurate range for the number of American bronies, as well as what percent of them are American. The figure for their population can therefore be calculated by A/%, where A is American brony number and % is what percent of the fandom is American. This comes out to about 16.2 million, plus or minus 4.4 million. Using the percent of bronies that are also furries and the percent of furries that are also bronies, we can arrive at the overlap between the two fandoms as well as the number of furries. The overlap is 3.4 million +/- 0.9 million, and the number of furries is 15.3 million +/- 4.6 million.

Two of the sources above also give the percent of either fandom that likes anime. For furries, 7.7 million +/- 2.3 million of them like anime and for Bronies it's 7.3 million +/- 1.8 million anime-lovers. Theoretically, the number of furry-bronies who like anime as well should be a percent somewhere between 50% and 45% (the percentages of either fandom who like anime). This gives 1.6 million +/- 0.4 million.

Now what was true for the overlap between furries and bronies must also hold true for the other two overlaps. In otherwords, some range of percents times the range of people in that overlap must be 1.6 million +/- 0.4 million, and the percent range must be made up of two different percentages: one in terms of Group A/Group B, and one in terms of Group B/Group A. Since one of these is unknown (the percentage of anime fans who are also bronies, for example), it's a basic "solve for X" situation. For the anime/brony overlap, x = 24.8% +/- 11.6%. Dividing 7.3 million +/- 1.8 million by x gives 15.1 to 68.9 million... huh.

Hm. Seems I made an error and didn't catch it. I'll update the OP accordingly. Anyways, we can actually narrow this down further, since we know the number is more than 20 million based on American sales data. Adding 4.9 to the first parameter and subtracting it from the last, we get: 20 million to 64 million, or 42 million +/- 22 million. Much nicer. :)
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#7
Jun 19, 2014 12:46 AM
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Anything less than a billion is not an acceptable answer!

Your math is all wrong.
 
#8
Jun 19, 2014 12:50 AM
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Congratulations, you just passed elementary school maths.

 
#9
Jun 19, 2014 12:54 AM
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xDrayken said:
Congratulations, you just passed elementary school maths.


Congratulations, you just earned your master's degree in sarcasm. Also, that's high school mathematics. Get your grade levels straight. Elementary kids look at me like I'm an alien when I try to teach them algebra, and most kids aren't taught algebra in middle school (sadly).
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Jun 19, 2014 12:58 AM
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50 million in average huh, and i read somewhere that the actual japanese otaku market thats actually paying for anime discs and merchandise is only less than 2 million people
 
Jun 19, 2014 12:58 AM
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FloatsBoats said:

1% of 7 billion is 70 million..

Wow more or less zeros, whatever. Still is just guessing though =/

Ricequake said:

I assume you're asking for a detailed mathematical explanation? Very well. You've left me no choice.

Basically, this works like 3 overlapping rings. One ring is furries, one is bronies, and one is anime fans. Why the other two? Because unlike certain fandoms *cough all the others cough*, the Bronies and Furries actually HOLD surveys, and the Bronies have a 95% accurate range for the number of American bronies, as well as what percent of them are American. The figure for their population can therefore be calculated by A/%, where A is American brony number and % is what percent of the fandom is American. This comes out to about 16.2 million, plus or minus 4.4 million. Using the percent of bronies that are also furries and the percent of furries that are also bronies, we can arrive at the overlap between the two fandoms as well as the number of furries. The overlap is 3.4 million +/- 0.9 million, and the number of furries is 15.3 million +/- 4.6 million.

Two of the sources above also give the percent of either fandom that likes anime. For furries, 7.7 million +/- 2.3 million of them like anime and for Bronies it's 7.3 million +/- 1.8 million anime-lovers. Theoretically, the number of furry-bronies who like anime as well should be a percent somewhere between 50% and 45% (the percentages of either fandom who like anime). This gives 1.6 million +/- 0.4 million.

Now what was true for the overlap between furries and bronies must also hold true for the other two overlaps. In otherwords, some range of percents times the range of people in that overlap must be 1.6 million +/- 0.4 million, and the percent range must be made up of two different percentages: one in terms of Group A/Group B, and one in terms of Group B/Group A. Since one of these is unknown (the percentage of anime fans who are also bronies, for example), it's a basic "solve for X" situation. For the anime/brony overlap, x = 24.8% +/- 11.6%. Dividing 7.3 million +/- 1.8 million by x gives 15.1 to 68.9 million... huh.

Hm. Seems I made an error and didn't catch it. I'll update the OP accordingly. Anyways, we can actually narrow this down further, since we know the number is more than 20 million based on American sales data. Adding 4.9 to the first parameter and subtracting it from the last, we get: 20 million to 64 million, or 42 million +/- 22 million. Much nicer. :)


Hum...Most of the guys is just trolling it. I ain't.
I mean, with that kind of information we can actually know some relevant things. Or at least guessing something more real, with more accuracy, than a shit guess, what people do most of the time.
Also i consider these kind of data important to know.

Lot of them don't believe in ranks, like the one in MAL. I do...
About your question i think it's around 100 million.
 
Jun 19, 2014 1:15 AM
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alot
 
Jun 19, 2014 1:27 AM
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goldslash said:
FloatsBoats said:

1% of 7 billion is 70 million..

Wow more or less zeros, whatever. Still is just guessing though =/

Ricequake said:
lots of words and maths


Hum...Most of the guys is just trolling it. I ain't.
I mean, with that kind of information we can actually know some relevant things. Or at least guessing something more real, with more accuracy, than a shit guess, what people do most of the time.
Also i consider these kind of data important to know.

Lot of them don't believe in ranks, like the one in MAL. I do...
About your question i think it's around 100 million.


Yeah, I'm always interested about the number of members of a fandom, how they overlap with other fandoms, and so on. With information like that, you can find out very interesting things. :) That's why I'm glad that fandoms like Brony and furry are trying to gather that kind of information, because it's very interesting and relevant to know. :)

j0x said:
50 million in average huh, and i read somewhere that the actual japanese otaku market thats actually paying for anime discs and merchandise is only less than 2 million people


Actually, it's much less than one million in Japan. A lot of people assume the largest market is in Japan, but in reality that's not the case: Japan has pretty much no people lol

The statistic you're thinking of includes idol otakus, computer otakus, scifi otakus, etc. Not just what we think is "otaku" here.
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Jun 19, 2014 1:58 AM
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Ricequake said:
goldslash said:

Wow more or less zeros, whatever. Still is just guessing though =/



Hum...Most of the guys is just trolling it. I ain't.
I mean, with that kind of information we can actually know some relevant things. Or at least guessing something more real, with more accuracy, than a shit guess, what people do most of the time.
Also i consider these kind of data important to know.

Lot of them don't believe in ranks, like the one in MAL. I do...
About your question i think it's around 100 million.


Yeah, I'm always interested about the number of members of a fandom, how they overlap with other fandoms, and so on. With information like that, you can find out very interesting things. :) That's why I'm glad that fandoms like Brony and furry are trying to gather that kind of information, because it's very interesting and relevant to know. :)

j0x said:
50 million in average huh, and i read somewhere that the actual japanese otaku market thats actually paying for anime discs and merchandise is only less than 2 million people


Actually, it's much less than one million in Japan. A lot of people assume the largest market is in Japan, but in reality that's not the case: Japan has pretty much no people lol

The statistic you're thinking of includes idol otakus, computer otakus, scifi otakus, etc. Not just what we think is "otaku" here.



um right next 0ver 12 percnet of nation watch a cartoon in the us
like the almot 13.0 tvratings some anime get in Japan

that alos does not incudle manga printed suff in Japan is more poplua than anime

if you were to add ust raw calculation figures for ever manga-zine in Japan [ ie the one thing that does not count towards total sales of one manga orthe other]
at last count id aorund 1.8- 2 Mlioon per month so that 22- 24 mlioon a year


the comics ndusty in Japan is the biggest in the world bt far in every way
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Jun 19, 2014 2:18 AM
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Ricequake said:
xDrayken said:
Congratulations, you just passed elementary school maths.


Congratulations, you just earned your master's degree in sarcasm. Also, that's high school mathematics. Get your grade levels straight. Elementary kids look at me like I'm an alien when I try to teach them algebra, and most kids aren't taught algebra in middle school (sadly).


I don't know any country, in which you learn Algebra at school. In my country you have to go to the university and it is also recommended that you have already taken 4 lectures before that. Imo that is not necessary, but nobody cares about that.
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Jun 19, 2014 2:32 AM
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tikkari said:
alot

 
Jun 19, 2014 2:33 AM
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What a number you have there, but maybe you're right on that calculation
 
Jun 19, 2014 2:37 AM
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Ryugen said:
tikkari said:
alot


haha
 
Jun 19, 2014 3:18 AM
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Forum said:
Members: 2,163,492
 
Jun 19, 2014 3:21 AM
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how many anime fans are forever alone and will not reproduce? i guess we are a dying breed
 
Jun 19, 2014 3:29 AM
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j0x said:
how many anime fans are forever alone and will not reproduce? i guess we are a dying breed

Considering that humanity will soon be in overpopulation, could it be that anime is actually saving humanity??! xD

On topic: I'm surprised about your estimated numbers of fans in america. Seems extremely exaggerated.
 
Jun 19, 2014 6:06 AM
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ThisNameSucks said:
Forum said:
Members: 2,163,492

how much of them are bots
"If you tremble with indignation at every injustice, then you are a comrade of mine"

When the union's inspiration through the workers' blood shall run
There can be no power greater anywhere beneath the sun
Yet what force on earth is weaker than the feeble strength of one
For the Union makes us strong
 
Jun 19, 2014 6:17 AM
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Ok but those statitics does not include people who have anime as a hobbie and aren't bronies or trollies or whatever the fuck there is, also if we count the massive amount of people who watch dragonball z and all the stuff that airs on tv it could change the statistics by a lot.
The anime industry is dead, the otaku fanbase killed it.
 
Jun 19, 2014 6:17 AM
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I once researched on the number of anime fans on Facebook, using Facebook ads. This is something you can try too. Basically what I did was

1) Include "Anime", "Cosplay" and "Otaku" in the interests targeting
2) Put a country at a time into the country targeting section



I went through about 50 countries and counted 30+ million. It is not really accurate you can't target China (nobody uses fb in China) and not a lot of people uses FB in Japan also.

If I remember correctly, both USA and Philippines had about 7 million anime fans each.
Modified by BlackShock_, Jun 19, 2014 6:22 AM
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Jun 19, 2014 7:00 AM
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BlackShock_ said:


Shouldn't just 'anime' be enough? I know some folks who watch anime but are not interested in cosplay nor otakus (they consider them to be the 'hyper extreme japanophiles' or something).

OT: Wild guess, I'd say about 100 million.
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Jun 19, 2014 7:05 AM
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I juts finished after going to each house in the world(I was the brown guy with green shirt with pink shorts and white sneakers )

It was 39.673,068,251
 
Jun 19, 2014 8:26 AM
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Samurnor said:
BlackShock_ said:


Shouldn't just 'anime' be enough? I know some folks who watch anime but are not interested in cosplay nor otakus (they consider them to be the 'hyper extreme japanophiles' or something).

OT: Wild guess, I'd say about 100 million.


True that. The audience for the 3 interests overlaps and if only "Anime" was selected, it should be about 80% of the number displayed.

My wild guess would be 300 million (250 million from China and Japan combined) , assuming anime fans excludes children shows and watched at least 10 series in their lifetime.
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Jun 19, 2014 9:26 AM
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BlackShock_ said:
Samurnor said:


Shouldn't just 'anime' be enough? I know some folks who watch anime but are not interested in cosplay nor otakus (they consider them to be the 'hyper extreme japanophiles' or something).

OT: Wild guess, I'd say about 100 million.


True that. The audience for the 3 interests overlaps and if only "Anime" was selected, it should be about 80% of the number displayed.

My wild guess would be 300 million (250 million from China and Japan combined) , assuming anime fans excludes children shows and watched at least 10 series in their lifetime.


The audience for anime and otaku should overlap mostly, yeah, but cosplay is also a very common interest for gamers and sexually frustrated youngsters who don't watch anime.
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Kronie said:
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Jun 19, 2014 9:58 AM
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bash107 said:
I juts finished after going to each house in the world(I was the brown guy with green shirt with pink shorts and white sneakers )

It was 39.673,068,251
white shorts, pink shirt and green sneakers here, i counted 251,068.673,39k
 
Jun 19, 2014 4:37 PM
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kikohunter said:
Ok but those statitics does not include people who have anime as a hobbie and aren't bronies or trollies or whatever the fuck there is, also if we count the massive amount of people who watch dragonball z and all the stuff that airs on tv it could change the statistics by a lot.


I hate having to explain things twice. If you had READ what I posted earlier, you would have understood WHY I was using statistics from two other fandoms. Obviously you're not the kind of person who likes to use their head, tough. Or grammar for that matter. Let me be simple: Because the overlap between furries and bronies, furries and anime fans, and anime fans and bronies is known, as well as the number of one of the three groups, we can find the population of the unknown groups. Our specific target group is anime fans. Not anime fans who happen to be brony or furry. That's only a small fraction of people who are included in the total. In the extreme case (the small fandom case), most of them WOULD be brony, furry, or both as well as anime fans. HOWEVER, this is the least likely case. The most likely case is the case of about fourty two million anime fans, only 32% of which would be brony or furry. And even THAT percentage is a little outrageous, leading me to believe that the answer is closer to the 68.9 million bound.

Don't argue maths with me. I'll divide your face by zero with one hectometer of a tangent.

Chepri said:
Ricequake said:


Congratulations, you just earned your master's degree in sarcasm. Also, that's high school mathematics. Get your grade levels straight. Elementary kids look at me like I'm an alien when I try to teach them algebra, and most kids aren't taught algebra in middle school (sadly).


I don't know any country, in which you learn Algebra at school. In my country you have to go to the university and it is also recommended that you have already taken 4 lectures before that. Imo that is not necessary, but nobody cares about that.


Well that sucks. In America you learn it in high school, and where I live it's actually required now that you get up to Precalculus in order to graduate.

FGAU1912 said:
Ricequake said:


Yeah, I'm always interested about the number of members of a fandom, how they overlap with other fandoms, and so on. With information like that, you can find out very interesting things. :) That's why I'm glad that fandoms like Brony and furry are trying to gather that kind of information, because it's very interesting and relevant to know. :)



Actually, it's much less than one million in Japan. A lot of people assume the largest market is in Japan, but in reality that's not the case: Japan has pretty much no people lol

The statistic you're thinking of includes idol otakus, computer otakus, scifi otakus, etc. Not just what we think is "otaku" here.



um right next 0ver 12 percnet of nation watch a cartoon in the us
like the almot 13.0 tvratings some anime get in Japan

that alos does not incudle manga printed suff in Japan is more poplua than anime

if you were to add ust raw calculation figures for ever manga-zine in Japan [ ie the one thing that does not count towards total sales of one manga orthe other]
at last count id aorund 1.8- 2 Mlioon per month so that 22- 24 mlioon a year


the comics ndusty in Japan is the biggest in the world bt far in every way


Oh my. Um... I'll try to translate.

"12% of America watches cartoons." (this is 38.4 million people by the way)

Cartoons aren't anime.

"like the almot 13.0 tvratings some anime get in Japan"

If I could understand you I'd discuss what you're trying to say... >.>

"that a lot does not include manga. Printed stuff in Japan is more popluar than anime"

I'm not arguing about this. Source: http://www.nri.com/global/news/2005/051006.html

The largest otaku group in Japan is the Manga/Comics group. Note that in Japan, they consider all comics manga, and all cartoons anime. But even so, with only 110,000 people in Japan being otaku for animations of any type, it doesn't seem to contribute much to the global number.

"if you were to add ust raw calculation figures for ever manga-zine in Japan [ ie the one thing that does not count towards total sales of one manga orthe other]
at last count id aorund 1.8- 2 Mlioon per month so that 22- 24 mlioon a year"

See the above link. The Japanese Comic market is worth more than 80 billion yen.

"the comics industry in Japan is the biggest in the world. By far. In every way."

As shown above, no. Also, in France, 40% of their book market is manga. Germany is also a huge manga country. Japan's manga market is tiny and insignificant compared to many other nations. Sorry, dude.

BlackShock_ said:
I once researched on the number of anime fans on Facebook, using Facebook ads. This is something you can try too. Basically what I did was

1) Include "Anime", "Cosplay" and "Otaku" in the interests targeting
2) Put a country at a time into the country targeting section



I went through about 50 countries and counted 30+ million. It is not really accurate you can't target China (nobody uses fb in China) and not a lot of people uses FB in Japan also.

If I remember correctly, both USA and Philippines had about 7 million anime fans each.


I approve.



BlackShock_ said:
Samurnor said:


Shouldn't just 'anime' be enough? I know some folks who watch anime but are not interested in cosplay nor otakus (they consider them to be the 'hyper extreme japanophiles' or something).

OT: Wild guess, I'd say about 100 million.


True that. The audience for the 3 interests overlaps and if only "Anime" was selected, it should be about 80% of the number displayed.

My wild guess would be 300 million (250 million from China and Japan combined) , assuming anime fans excludes children shows and watched at least 10 series in their lifetime.


I'd say Japan barely factors into that, based on the link I provided above (only 110,000 anime otakus, including foreign cartoons). But from China, I'd indeed expect a very large number... but... then again, considering how restrictive their government can be... I dunno, maybe not as much as you'd think. Maybe closer to 100 million or less from there, I would say. And since only 571.1 million of them even use internet...



NOTE: To put numbers into perspective, 10 million people is only 0.143% of the world population (less than 1%). 100 million is 1.43%, and 1 billion is 14.3%.
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Jun 20, 2014 1:20 AM
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Ricequake said:
xDrayken said:
Congratulations, you just passed elementary school maths.


Congratulations, you just earned your master's degree in sarcasm. Also, that's high school mathematics. Get your grade levels straight. Elementary kids look at me like I'm an alien when I try to teach them algebra, and most kids aren't taught algebra in middle school (sadly).


Seems like I did pass my master's degree in overexaggerating to put the emphasis on how easy the math you did was, considering you had the need to justify yourself saying it was high school math (which is just as easy, by the way).

 
Jun 20, 2014 1:22 AM
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Chepri said:
Ricequake said:


Congratulations, you just earned your master's degree in sarcasm. Also, that's high school mathematics. Get your grade levels straight. Elementary kids look at me like I'm an alien when I try to teach them algebra, and most kids aren't taught algebra in middle school (sadly).


I don't know any country, in which you learn Algebra at school. In my country you have to go to the university and it is also recommended that you have already taken 4 lectures before that. Imo that is not necessary, but nobody cares about that.


Our school system in canada has us learning algebra. First time was on my 6th grade of primary school, then continued with other mixes and more advanced algebra from year 1 to 5 of high school. Algebra is extremely easy.

And for those wondering why the years are different, that's how it is here;

Kindergarten -> 6 years primary -> 5 years high school.
Where I lived there were two schools, one for the first two years of high school and the second one for the three remaining years. Although in my case I spent all five years in the second school, as there was an elite program "Sports-Études" where you would do your first two years there aswell.
Modified by xDrayken, Jun 20, 2014 1:28 AM

 
Jun 20, 2014 1:24 AM
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FGAU1912 said:
ThisNameSucks said:

how much of them are bots
Bots can be anime fans too.

Don't be racist.
 
Jun 20, 2014 1:35 AM
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Ricequake said:
kikohunter said:
Ok but those statitics does not include people who have anime as a hobbie and aren't bronies or trollies or whatever the fuck there is, also if we count the massive amount of people who watch dragonball z and all the stuff that airs on tv it could change the statistics by a lot.


I hate having to explain things twice. If you had READ what I posted earlier, you would have understood WHY I was using statistics from two other fandoms. Obviously you're not the kind of person who likes to use their head, tough. Or grammar for that matter. Let me be simple: Because the overlap between furries and bronies, furries and anime fans, and anime fans and bronies is known, as well as the number of one of the three groups, we can find the population of the unknown groups. Our specific target group is anime fans. Not anime fans who happen to be brony or furry. That's only a small fraction of people who are included in the total. In the extreme case (the small fandom case), most of them WOULD be brony, furry, or both as well as anime fans. HOWEVER, this is the least likely case. The most likely case is the case of about fourty two million anime fans, only 32% of which would be brony or furry. And even THAT percentage is a little outrageous, leading me to believe that the answer is closer to the 68.9 million bound.

Don't argue maths with me. I'll divide your face by zero with one hectometer of a tangent.


Alright thanks for explaining but you don't need to be so harsh about it, and yes I didn't read most of it and didn't put too much thiught into it. It's not really into my highest priorities to calculate how many anime fans there are in the world.
The anime industry is dead, the otaku fanbase killed it.
 
Jun 20, 2014 6:36 AM
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xDrayken said:


Seems like I did pass my master's degree in overexaggerating to put the emphasis on how easy the math you did was, considering you had the need to justify yourself saying it was high school math (which is just as easy, by the way).


xDrayken said:


Our school system in canada has us learning algebra. First time was on my 6th grade of primary school, then continued with other mixes and more advanced algebra from year 1 to 5 of high school. Algebra is extremely easy.

And for those wondering why the years are different, that's how it is here;

Kindergarten -> 6 years primary -> 5 years high school.
Where I lived there were two schools, one for the first two years of high school and the second one for the three remaining years. Although in my case I spent all five years in the second school, as there was an elite program "Sports-Études" where you would do your first two years there aswell.


Yeah, but then there's the sad truth. According to most of the population of the world, even "basic" algebra is pretty hard. It just doesn't click for most people, and most people just forget it because they thought it was unimportant as little kids/teens. Most of the world still can't round, much less "solve for x."

I'm more of a differential calculus guy myself. But I know from experience that most people don't understand a thing about it, and only half of the people I talk to will know what maths stuff I'm talking about. Giving a maths explanation for almost anything just ends with the other person going "uh... what?" Not everyone can be an intellectual (sadly), and not everyone can be from Canada (also sadly).

kikohunter said:
Ricequake said:


Alright thanks for explaining but you don't need to be so harsh about it, and yes I didn't read most of it and didn't put too much thought into it. It's not really into my highest priorities to calculate how many anime fans there are in the world.


Harshness is my job. I'm aiming to be an educator. Now do your math homework! *cracks whip* MWA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!! >:D

Er...

*cough*

But no, seriously. I admit I was a bit harsher than I probably should have been. Sorry. I do that sometimes. But if you're going to rebuke someone and say they're wrong on X basis, at least know what you're rebuking. Even (most) creationists attempt to understand the science they rebuke. Now, I'm not saying they do understand any of it, but... they try is the point. :P
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Jun 20, 2014 10:11 AM
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I guess we have a fundamental different point of view regarding what Algebra actually is.
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Jun 20, 2014 11:46 AM
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This is an interesting topic and I dont want to ignore what you've said so far, but 20 million in america seems a bit far fetched. I dunno, but the US population is a little more than 300 million, so 20 million is already 15% of the US population. However, I believe the range you specified is about right, considering all the other countries in the world.
 
Jun 21, 2014 3:10 PM
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Ricequake said:
I assume you're asking for a detailed mathematical explanation? Very well. You've left me no choice.

Basically, this works like 3 overlapping rings. One ring is furries, one is bronies, and one is anime fans. Why the other two? Because unlike certain fandoms *cough all the others cough*, the Bronies and Furries actually HOLD surveys, and the Bronies have a 95% accurate range for the number of American bronies, as well as what percent of them are American. The figure for their population can therefore be calculated by A/%, where A is American brony number and % is what percent of the fandom is American. This comes out to about 16.2 million, plus or minus 4.4 million. Using the percent of bronies that are also furries and the percent of furries that are also bronies, we can arrive at the overlap between the two fandoms as well as the number of furries. The overlap is 3.4 million +/- 0.9 million, and the number of furries is 15.3 million +/- 4.6 million.

Two of the sources above also give the percent of either fandom that likes anime. For furries, 7.7 million +/- 2.3 million of them like anime and for Bronies it's 7.3 million +/- 1.8 million anime-lovers. Theoretically, the number of furry-bronies who like anime as well should be a percent somewhere between 50% and 45% (the percentages of either fandom who like anime). This gives 1.6 million +/- 0.4 million.

Now what was true for the overlap between furries and bronies must also hold true for the other two overlaps. In otherwords, some range of percents times the range of people in that overlap must be 1.6 million +/- 0.4 million, and the percent range must be made up of two different percentages: one in terms of Group A/Group B, and one in terms of Group B/Group A. Since one of these is unknown (the percentage of anime fans who are also bronies, for example), it's a basic "solve for X" situation. For the anime/brony overlap, x = 24.8% +/- 11.6%. Dividing 7.3 million +/- 1.8 million by x gives 15.1 to 68.9 million... huh.

Hm. Seems I made an error and didn't catch it. I'll update the OP accordingly. Anyways, we can actually narrow this down further, since we know the number is more than 20 million based on American sales data. Adding 4.9 to the first parameter and subtracting it from the last, we get: 20 million to 64 million, or 42 million +/- 22 million. Much nicer. :)


You are assuming that these groups are independently distributed and that American preferences hold globally. Both assumptions are wrong.

One problem in calculating the number of anime fans is determining the what is an anime fan. I would say an anime fan is somebody who watches more than 20 hours of anime per year (about 50 episodes or more), people who watch anime regularly.

In Japan almost everybody under the age of 20 watches anime regularly but only few people are hardcore fans. For instance, I read in a survey that for people between the ages of 15-19, more than 80% followed an anime series but only 5% followed more than 6 anime series. For people in the age range 20-29 it was 70% and 4% respectively, for 30-39 it was 50% and 3%, respectively.

Many people in Japan in their 40's and 50's watch Sasae-san, Miyazaki's films and read One Piece (just as many middle aged Americans watch The Simpsons and watch Pixar's films with their kids) as well. But they are not fans, I think true fans would be those that regularly watch the anime that airs from 23:00 to 27:00 timeslots.

I actually have some interesting data for global number of true, there was an Anime only channel:



According to wikipedia, in 2010, before it was shut down, the channel reached 89 million households. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animax) I had this channel at home, me and my sister watched it. Assuming about 1.5 persons watch it regularly this means about 140 million people watch anime regularly around the world.

Animax never aired in the US because as we know, the US is one of the world's most closed countries in regards to foreign cultural products so in China, Korea, Europe and Latin America, the proportion of anime fans among the population that has access to anime is higher than in the US, high enough to support a cable channel for anime. At least before the channel shut down (I think that's because now most people download the anime they watch).
 
Jun 21, 2014 3:19 PM
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j0x said:
50 million in average huh, and i read somewhere that the actual japanese otaku market thats actually paying for anime discs and merchandise is only less than 2 million people


The Japanese Otaku market consists of males between the ages of 20 and 40 (they need to be adult to earn money to purchase tons of anime goods). Males from the ages of 20 to 40 are 12% of the population or about 15 million people, I guess around 10-20% of these are Otaku so that's where your 2 million people figure comes from. There are much fewer female Otaku.

The Otaku market is mostly responsible for the sales of anime related merchandise and disks which totaled about 13 billion dollars in 2012, so each Otaku purchases around 5,000 dollars in anime related goods each year (assuming some of the demand comes from the rest of the population), not counting manga sales which were 6 billion dollars (so each Otaku probably spent like 6,000 dollars in anime disks, merchandise and manga in a year, assuming most manga is sold to the general population).

I personally spent about 1,000 dollars in manga and anime over the past year. Though I did not spent a single cent on character goods (not interested in figurines and related stuff).
 
Jun 21, 2014 4:32 PM
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Okay, this just in from Facebook. Here are the numbers of people who show interest in the following "Interests" according to Facebook.

Anime Fan - 2,303,134
Anime and Manga Fandom - 4,350,109
Cosplay - 20,407,210
Otaku - 30,053,318
Manga - 69,232,700
Anime Movies - 103,668,600

That last number. Holy freaking crap. O.o

Note: there are only 500 million people on Facebook. People who like "anime movies" are apparently 20% of that. O.o
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Jun 21, 2014 4:39 PM
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That sounds like a lot but it isn't really since there are over a billion humans on the planet. How do animals get their privacy?
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Jun 21, 2014 4:56 PM
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Ricequake said:
Actually, it's much less than one million in Japan. A lot of people assume the largest market is in Japan, but in reality that's not the case: Japan has pretty much no people lol


No, Japan is the market for anime. The anime industry in Japan was 260 billion yen in 2006, 30 billion yen came from foreign sources, 230 billion yen was from the domestic market, that's 89% of the revenues of the anime market are in Japan. The world outside of Japan is insignificant for the Japanese anime industry and the 30,000 people directly employed by the anime studios.

The US is probably around 3% of the global anime market in terms of generating studio revenues (I think because most of the money stays with the distributors, out of the 30 billion yen from foreign sources, I guess 1/3 comes from the US) and the number of anime fans in the US is also probably a very small fraction of the number in Japan.

If you want a comparison, in the US manga sales in 2012 were 12 million volumes, in Japan it was 600 million volumes. Disk sales are not comparable because in Japan most people watch anime on the TV (which they may have recorded on the TV), downloaded or rented (in Japan people almost never buy movies or TV series, they rent movies and TV series), so comparing disk sales is not a good measure of the size of the fandom.

The number of Anime fans in the US in proportion to the population is lower than in other countries and certainly much lower than in Japan. Think of an hardcore anime/manga fan in Japan is the same as a hardcore movie fan in the US, most Americans are not hardcore movie fans but most Americans watch movies regularly.

Though as I said before, in the US the population who watches anime is either: 1 - hardcore fans or 2- never watch any of it. Other countries have it different. I guess that about 5% of the global anime fans are American maybe less.

In Japan watching mainstream anime shows like Sazae-san is like watching How I Meet Your Mother in the US. Watching Miyazaki's films is like watching James Cameron or Steven Spielberg films in the US (3 out of the 5 highest grossing films in Japanese history are anime, 14 out of the 30 highest grossing films in Japan from 2009-2013 are anime and 8 out of the 16 highest grossing live action films in Japan are based on a manga or anime series). One Piece is read by a larger proportion of the people in Japan than Harry Potter books are read in the US.

Manga represents the largest single element of contemporary Japanese culture, more manga is read in Japan than novels. Manga sales in Japan are higher than sales of novels, videogames, movie tickets and sales of DVDs+Blu-Ray. As Miyazaki said, manga is the starting point of Japanese popular culture. Anime and live action films and TV in Japan are mostly based on manga.

Japan's population is very large, around 41% of the US's population, it's the second largest industrialized country by population, that's why they have an animation industry that produces so many shows and movies, they have a large market to support it.

The statistic you're thinking of includes idol otakus, computer otakus, scifi otakus, etc. Not just what we think is "otaku" here.


Otaku means nerd in Japan, however, it's probable that the majority of nerds in Japan watch anime in the same way that the majority of nerds in the US play videogames. Anime otaku means anime nerd and the Japanese even use the word Otaku for fans of a specific series ("Evangelion Otaku").

So it's very problematic to establish a number for Japanese anime fans since anime there is a continuum: most people watch a little of anime and a few are hardcore fans.

In Brazil there are anime fans and there are people who watch anime from time to time and people who watched a ton of anime in their childhood but never watched any afterwards. So it's complicated to classify it.

In the US and Europe that the concept of anime fan emerges since 99% of the population there never watches any anime while a few people watch a ton of anime.

Most anime fans outside of Japan are in China and Korea and Taiwan also look like places for highest density of anime fans in the population. Comics written in Korea and Taiwan are identical to manga, in fact, many people confuse Korean and Taiwanese comics with manga.
Modified by Jose_Cruz, Jun 21, 2014 5:20 PM
 
Jun 21, 2014 5:27 PM
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Ricequake said:
Okay, this just in from Facebook. Here are the numbers of people who show interest in the following "Interests" according to Facebook.

Anime Fan - 2,303,134
Anime and Manga Fandom - 4,350,109
Cosplay - 20,407,210
Otaku - 30,053,318
Manga - 69,232,700
Anime Movies - 103,668,600

That last number. Holy freaking crap. O.o

Note: there are only 500 million people on Facebook. People who like "anime movies" are apparently 20% of that. O.o


Facebook is growing fast though. There are 1 billion Facebook accounts by the end of 2012 (http://www.internetworldstats.com/facebook.htm). Now it's probably a bit more. Still I wonder where those numbers came from because I rarely see anime/manga in the lists of movies or TV from the people I know (mostly Brazilians and Americans).
 
Jun 21, 2014 7:42 PM
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Like a lot of people, I dont really go around openly telling everyone how much I love anime, and I rarely buy anime related stuff, so it's safe to say that there are plenty of "fans" around the world that aren't represented in sales figures, polls, whatever facebook stats, or such.
 
Jun 22, 2014 6:32 PM
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Guaporense said:
Ricequake said:
Actually, it's much less than one million in Japan. A lot of people assume the largest market is in Japan, but in reality that's not the case: Japan has pretty much no people lol


No, Japan is the market for anime. The anime industry in Japan was 260 billion yen in 2006, 30 billion yen came from foreign sources, 230 billion yen was from the domestic market, that's 89% of the revenues of the anime market are in Japan. The world outside of Japan is insignificant for the Japanese anime industry and the 30,000 people directly employed by the anime studios.

The US is probably around 3% of the global anime market in terms of generating studio revenues (I think because most of the money stays with the distributors, out of the 30 billion yen from foreign sources, I guess 1/3 comes from the US) and the number of anime fans in the US is also probably a very small fraction of the number in Japan.

If you want a comparison, in the US manga sales in 2012 were 12 million volumes, in Japan it was 600 million volumes. Disk sales are not comparable because in Japan most people watch anime on the TV (which they may have recorded on the TV), downloaded or rented (in Japan people almost never buy movies or TV series, they rent movies and TV series), so comparing disk sales is not a good measure of the size of the fandom.


Yeah, I don't think that sales are a good indicator anyways. Think pirating/illegal reading and watching of anime and manga online. Not gonna lie, I've done it a couple times (especially when I was a bit younger than now) and I'm not proud of it.

The number of Anime fans in the US in proportion to the population is lower than in other countries and certainly much lower than in Japan. Think of an hardcore anime/manga fan in Japan is the same as a hardcore movie fan in the US, most Americans are not hardcore movie fans but most Americans watch movies regularly.

Though as I said before, in the US the population who watches anime is either: 1 - hardcore fans or 2- never watch any of it. Other countries have it different. I guess that about 5% of the global anime fans are American maybe less.


Yes and no. That's like saying people who watch cartoons from their own culture can be considered hardcore fans of it. Of course Japanese people watch Japanese cartoons! That's a given. But which people are OTAKU is the question? To be truely hardcore about it... in reality the number is quite small. The sales figures is mostly due to small children and teens who watch it, but later in life don't care for anime.

In Japan watching mainstream anime shows like Sazae-san is like watching How I Meet Your Mother in the US. Watching Miyazaki's films is like watching James Cameron or Steven Spielberg films in the US (3 out of the 5 highest grossing films in Japanese history are anime, 14 out of the 30 highest grossing films in Japan from 2009-2013 are anime and 8 out of the 16 highest grossing live action films in Japan are based on a manga or anime series). One Piece is read by a larger proportion of the people in Japan than Harry Potter books are read in the US.


Sazae san? I wouldn't consider Sazae San an anime, any more than you'd call Hey Arnold an anime (though Japan certainly would). Nor would I compare it to HIMYM, considering that Sazae san has run for so many years. I'd compare it more to The Simpsons. And I would compare Miyazaki films more to Disney films, given Studio Ghibli's status.

The One Piece comparison is interesting though. Where did that statistic come from? O.o

Manga represents the largest single element of contemporary Japanese culture, more manga is read in Japan than novels. Manga sales in Japan are higher than sales of novels, videogames, movie tickets and sales of DVDs+Blu-Ray. As Miyazaki said, manga is the starting point of Japanese popular culture. Anime and live action films and TV in Japan are mostly based on manga.


Yes. This is indeed true, but most of those sales numbers are due to kids and super-otaku who feel the need to buy everything ever. :P

Japan's population is very large, around 41% of the US's population, it's the second largest industrialized country by population, that's why they have an animation industry that produces so many shows and movies, they have a large market to support it.


Yeah, 127 million people. But they're losing more than 200,000 people a year due to a severely low birth rate. In just a few years, they'll hit 126 million, and the natural change in population gets more and more negative every year. If nothing is done......

Um... sorry. Off-topic.

Anyways... yeah, it has a lot of people. But 25.2% of them are old people (65 years or older), and 13.4% of them are children 15 or younger. This leaves only 61.4% of them as candidates, since the kids would naturally watch anime and the elderly... it's unlikely that they do, though I suppose somewhat possible, due to Astro Boy and a few other ancient relics of anime's birth. But yeah, 78 million. Then you take into account the percent that aren't otaku and the number shrinks significantly to less than 2 million. Then it shrinks even further when you specify anime, down to the thousands. So although Japan indeed has a great number of people, most are too old, too young, or too disinterested in anime to count.

The statistic you're thinking of includes idol otakus, computer otakus, scifi otakus, etc. Not just what we think is "otaku" here.


Otaku means nerd in Japan, however, it's probable that the majority of nerds in Japan watch anime in the same way that the majority of nerds in the US play videogames. Anime otaku means anime nerd and the Japanese even use the word Otaku for fans of a specific series ("Evangelion Otaku").


Yeah, it's pretty much like the word "fan." Doctor Who Fan, Anime Fan, Game of Thrones Fan, Rail Fan, etc. "Otaku" is basically like saying that person is part of a fandom. Of course, some fandoms don't have the word Otaku attached to them, like Kemono (basically the japanese furry fandom). And much like the rest of the world, saying your an anime fan or a my little pony fan or what have you can have some... consequences. Like how "if you're a furry you're automatically into bestiality", or "if you're a brony, you fap to pony porn", or "if you watch anime, you watch tentacle porn all the time". Saying Otaku has a dual meaning in this way, meaning both someone who is a hardcore fan, and someone who has a serious fetish for something. So it's not a term to use lightly, lol.

Er... went off on a tangent there. Sorry.

So it's very problematic to establish a number for Japanese anime fans since anime there is a continuum: most people watch a little of anime and a few are hardcore fans.

In Brazil there are anime fans and there are people who watch anime from time to time and people who watched a ton of anime in their childhood but never watched any afterwards. So it's complicated to classify it.

In the US and Europe that the concept of anime fan emerges since 99% of the population there never watches any anime while a few people watch a ton of anime.


Exactly, and this is why it's hard to classify anime fans just by sales figures, especially due to the advent of pirating and watching things online. I'd say around 50% or more of people watch their anime online, and not through Crunchy Roll or any other legitimate sites, either.

Most anime fans outside of Japan are in China and Korea and Taiwan also look like places for highest density of anime fans in the population. Comics written in Korea and Taiwan are identical to manga, in fact, many people confuse Korean and Taiwanese comics with manga.


Yeah, Manhwa and all that. I know of its existence, but it's not quite relevant, since many people prefer manga over anime for some reason, though I personally like both.

Guaporense said:
Ricequake said:
Okay, this just in from Facebook. Here are the numbers of people who show interest in the following "Interests" according to Facebook.

Anime Fan - 2,303,134
Anime and Manga Fandom - 4,350,109
Cosplay - 20,407,210
Otaku - 30,053,318
Manga - 69,232,700
Anime Movies - 103,668,600

That last number. Holy freaking crap. O.o

Note: there are only 500 million people on Facebook. People who like "anime movies" are apparently 20% of that. O.o


Facebook is growing fast though. There are 1 billion Facebook accounts by the end of 2012 (http://www.internetworldstats.com/facebook.htm). Now it's probably a bit more. Still I wonder where those numbers came from because I rarely see anime/manga in the lists of movies or TV from the people I know (mostly Brazilians and Americans).


Wow, already? A billion? Does this include multiple accounts and dead accounts? Or not???

Anyways, it's from Facebook's ad manager app, in which you can pick a target audience/interest. The interests I picked are the ones I showed here, along with the numbers Facebook gave.

paraboxes said:
Like a lot of people, I dont really go around openly telling everyone how much I love anime, and I rarely buy anime related stuff, so it's safe to say that there are plenty of "fans" around the world that aren't represented in sales figures, polls, whatever facebook stats, or such.


And this is why the number might be a serious under-estimation. There are a ridiculous number of unknown fans in just about every fandom. Whether they don't know that the fandom exists, or they don't have the money, or whatever, it's hard to count based on salesfigures or representation online. In fact, if every human on the planet were polled (assuming they all told the truth), I bet the numbers for every fandom would skyrocket, becoming 1% or more of the population each. But that's just my own little theory.
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Sep 14, 12:32 AM
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I have a YouTube channel of naruto amvs and fights. I upload daily videos, please visit my channel. Link- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPop8LPQ2C4SI5vLANEMqGA please help my channel to grow up.
 
Sep 14, 12:42 AM
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Just a random thought: I was surprised to see that Death Note has more "members" on MAL than Avatar on IMDb.